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Musings on Markets

Musings on Markets
Return on Equity, Earnings Yield and Market Efficiency: Back to Basics! While I was working on my last two data updates for 2025, I got sidetracked, as I am wont to do, by...
4 days ago
4
4 days ago
While I was working on my last two data updates for 2025, I got sidetracked, as I am wont to do, by two events. The first was the response that I received to my last data update, where I looked at the profitability of businesses, and specifically at how a comparison of accounting...
Musings on Markets
Data Update 3 for 2025: The times they are a'changin'! In my first two data posts for 2025, I looked at the strong year that US equities had in 2024, but a...
3 weeks ago
3
3 weeks ago
In my first two data posts for 2025, I looked at the strong year that US equities had in 2024, but a very good year for the overall market does not always translate into equivalent returns across segments of the market. In this post, I will remain focused on US equities, but I...
Musings on Markets
DeepSeek crashes the AI Party: Story Break, Change or Shift? I am going to start this post with a confession that my knowledge of the architecture and mechanics...
3 weeks ago
2
3 weeks ago
I am going to start this post with a confession that my knowledge of the architecture and mechanics of AI are pedestrian and that there will be things that I don't get right in this post. That said, DeepSeek's abrupt entry into the AI conversation has the potential to change the...
Musings on Markets
Data Update 1 for 2025: The Draw (and Danger) of Data For the last four decades, I have spent the first week of each year collecting and analyzing data on...
a month ago
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a month ago
For the last four decades, I have spent the first week of each year collecting and analyzing data on publicly traded companies and sharing what I find with anyone who is interested. It is the end of the first full week in 2025, and my data update for the year is now up and...
Musings on Markets
Data Update 7 for 2025: The End Game in Business! I am in the third week of the corporate finance class that I teach at NYU Stern, and my students...
a week ago
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a week ago
I am in the third week of the corporate finance class that I teach at NYU Stern, and my students have been lulled into a false sense of complacency about what's coming, since I have not used a single metric or number in my class yet. In fact, we have spent almost four sessions...
Musings on Markets
Data Update 6 for 2025: From Macro to Micro - The Hurdle Rate Question! In the first five posts, I have looked at the macro numbers that drive global markets, from interest...
a week ago
2
a week ago
In the first five posts, I have looked at the macro numbers that drive global markets, from interest rates to risk premiums, but it is not my preferred habitat. I spend most of my time in the far less rarefied air of corporate finance and valuation, where businesses try to decide...
Musings on Markets
Data Update 5 for 2025: It's a small world, after all! If the title of this post sounds familiar, it is because is one of Disney’s most iconic rides, one...
2 weeks ago
2
2 weeks ago
If the title of this post sounds familiar, it is because is one of Disney’s most iconic rides, one that I have taken hundreds of times, first with my own children and more recently, with my grandchildren. It is a mainstay of every Disney theme park, from the original Disneyland...
Musings on Markets
Data Update 2 for 2025: The Party Continued (for US Equities) In my last post, I noted that the US has extended its dominance of global equities in recent years,...
a month ago
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a month ago
In my last post, I noted that the US has extended its dominance of global equities in recent years, increasing its share of market capitalization from 42% in at the start of 2023 to 44% at the start of 2024 to 49% at the start of 2025. That rise was driven by a surge in US equity...
Musings on Markets
Just do it! Brand Name Lessons from Nike'sTroubles! I have spent the last week reading "Shoe Dog", Phil Knight's memoir of how  a runner on the Oregon...
4 months ago
2
4 months ago
I have spent the last week reading "Shoe Dog", Phil Knight's memoir of how  a runner on the Oregon University track team built one of the great shoe companies in the world, in Nike. In addition to its entertainment value, and it is a fun book to read, I read it for two...
Musings on Markets
Beat your Bot: Building your moat against AI It seems like a lifetime has passed since artificial intelligence (AI) became the market's biggest...
5 months ago
2
5 months ago
It seems like a lifetime has passed since artificial intelligence (AI) became the market's biggest mover, but Open AI introduced the world to ChatGPT on November 30, 2022. While ChatGPT itself represented a low-tech variation of AI, it opened the door to AI not only as a business...
Musings on Markets
Data Update 4 for 2025: Interest Rates, Inflation and Central Banks! It was an interesting year for interest rates in the United States, one in which we got more...
3 weeks ago
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3 weeks ago
It was an interesting year for interest rates in the United States, one in which we got more evidence on the limited power that central banks have to alter the trajectory of market interest rates. We started 2024 with the consensus wisdom that rates would drop during the year,...
Musings on Markets
For the fun of it: An Open House for my Spring 2025 Classes I am a teacher at heart, and every year, for more than two decades, I have invited people to join me...
2 months ago
2
2 months ago
I am a teacher at heart, and every year, for more than two decades, I have invited people to join me in the classes that I teach at the Stern School of Business at New York University. Since I teach these classes only in the spring, and the first sessions for each of the classes...
Musings on Markets
The Sugar Daddy Effect? Assessing Corporate venture capital, Sovereign funds and Green Energy! It is a sign of the times that I spent some time thinking about whether the title of my post would...
3 months ago
2
3 months ago
It is a sign of the times that I spent some time thinking about whether the title of my post would offend some people, as sexist or worse. I briefly considering expanding the title to  "Sugar Daddies and Molasses Mommies", but that just sounds awkward, or even replacing the words...
Musings on Markets
Breaking up Big Tech: Cui Bono? In a court filing on October 9, 2024, the US Department of Justice (DOJ) let it be known that it was...
4 months ago
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4 months ago
In a court filing on October 9, 2024, the US Department of Justice (DOJ) let it be known that it was considering a break-up of Alphabet, with the addendum that it would also be pushing for the company to share the data it collects across its multiple platforms with competitors....
Musings on Markets
Data Update 5 for 2024: Profitability - The End Game for Business? In my last three posts, I looked at the macro (equity risk premiums, default spreads, risk free...
a year ago
2
a year ago
In my last three posts, I looked at the macro (equity risk premiums, default spreads, risk free rates) and micro (company risk measures) that feed into the expected returns we demand on investments, and argued that these expected returns become hurdle rates for businesses, in the...
Musings on Markets
The Siren Song of Sustainability: The Theocratic Trifecta's Third Leg! You might know, by now, of my views on ESG, which I have described as an empty acronym, born in...
3 months ago
1
3 months ago
You might know, by now, of my views on ESG, which I have described as an empty acronym, born in sanctimony, nurtured in hypocrisy and sold with sophistry. My voyage with ESG began with curiosity in my 2019 exploration of what it purported to measure, turned to cynicism as the...
Musings on Markets
The Wisdom and Madness of Crowds: Market Prices as Political Predictors! In this, the first full week in November 2024, the big news stories of this week are political, as...
3 months ago
1
3 months ago
In this, the first full week in November 2024, the big news stories of this week are political, as the US presidential election reached its climactic moment on Tuesday, but I don't write about politics, not because I do not have political views, but because I reserve those views...
Musings on Markets
Fed up with Fed Talk? Fact-checking Central Banking Fairy Tales! The big story on Wednesday, September 18, was that the Federal Reserve’s open market committee...
5 months ago
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5 months ago
The big story on Wednesday, September 18, was that the Federal Reserve’s open market committee finally got around to “cutting rates”, and doing so by more than expected. This action, much debated and discussed during all of 2024, was greeted as "big" news, and market...
Musings on Markets
Dealing with Aging: Updating the Intel, Walgreens and Starbucks Stories! A few weeks ago, I posted on the corporate life cycle, the subject of my latest book. I argued that...
5 months ago
1
5 months ago
A few weeks ago, I posted on the corporate life cycle, the subject of my latest book. I argued that the corporate life cycle can explain what happens to companies as they age, and why they  have to adapt to aging with their actions and choices. In parallel, I also noted that...
Musings on Markets
The Corporate Life Cycle: Managing, Valuation and Investing Implications! As I reveal my ignorance about TikTok trends, social media celebrities and Gen Z slang, my children...
6 months ago
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6 months ago
As I reveal my ignorance about TikTok trends, social media celebrities and Gen Z slang, my children are quick to point out my age, and I accept that reality, for the most part. I understand that I am too old to exercise without stretching first or eat a heaping plate of cheese...
Musings on Markets
Country Risk: My 2024 Data Update After the 2008 market crisis, I resolved that I would be far more organized in my assessments and...
7 months ago
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7 months ago
After the 2008 market crisis, I resolved that I would be far more organized in my assessments and updating of equity risk premiums, in the United States and abroad, as I looked at the damage that can be inflicted on intrinsic value by significant shifts in risk premiums, i.e., my...
Musings on Markets
Catastrophic Risk: Investing and Business Implications In the context of valuing companies, and sharing those valuations, I do get suggestions from readers...
a year ago
1
a year ago
In the context of valuing companies, and sharing those valuations, I do get suggestions from readers on companies that I should value next. While I don't have the time or the bandwidth to value all of the suggested companies, a reader from Iceland, a couple of weeks ago, made a...
Musings on Markets
The Seven Samurai: How Big Tech Rescued the Market in 2023! I was planning to finish my last two data updates for 2024, but decided to take a break and look at...
a year ago
1
a year ago
I was planning to finish my last two data updates for 2024, but decided to take a break and look at the seven stocks (Apple, Amazon, Alphabet, Meta, Microsoft, Nvidia and Tesla) which carried the market in 2023. While I will use the "Magnificent Seven" moniker attached by these...
Musings on Markets
Data Update 4 for 2024: Danger and Opportunity - Bringing Risk into the Equation! In my last data updates for this year, I looked first at how equity markets rebounded in 2023,...
a year ago
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a year ago
In my last data updates for this year, I looked first at how equity markets rebounded in 2023, driven by a stronger-than-expected economy and inflation coming down, and then at how interest rates mirrored this rebound. In this post, I look at risk, a central theme in finance and...
Musings on Markets
The Power of Expectations: Nvidia's Earnings and the Market Reaction! Last Wednesday (August 28), the market waited with bated breath for Nvidia’s earning call, scheduled...
5 months ago
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5 months ago
Last Wednesday (August 28), the market waited with bated breath for Nvidia’s earning call, scheduled for after the market closed. That call, at first sight, contained exceptionally good news, with revenues and earnings coming in at stratospheric levels, and above expectations,...