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Don't Worry About the Vase

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AI 2027: Responses Yesterday I covered Dwarkesh Patel’s excellent podcast coverage of AI 2027 with Daniel Kokotajlo and...
a week ago
113
a week ago
Yesterday I covered Dwarkesh Patel’s excellent podcast coverage of AI 2027 with Daniel Kokotajlo and Scott Alexander. Today covers the reactions of others.
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Levels of Friction Scott Alexander famously warned us to Beware Trivial Inconveniences.
2 months ago
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The Risk of Gradual Disempowerment from AI The baseline scenario as AI becomes AGI becomes ASI (artificial superintelligence), if nothing more...
2 months ago
24
2 months ago
The baseline scenario as AI becomes AGI becomes ASI (artificial superintelligence), if nothing more dramatic goes wrong first and even we successfully ‘solve alignment’ of AI to a given user and developer, is the ‘gradual’ disempowerment of humanity by AIs, as we voluntarily...
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Monthly Roundup #27: February 2025 I have been debating how to cover the non-AI aspects of the Trump administration, including the...
a month ago
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a month ago
I have been debating how to cover the non-AI aspects of the Trump administration, including the various machinations of DOGE.
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Medical Roundup #4 It seems like as other things drew our attention more, medical news slowed down.
a month ago
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AI #103: Show Me the Money The main event this week was the disastrous Paris AI Anti-Safety Summit. Not only did we not build...
2 months ago
22
2 months ago
The main event this week was the disastrous Paris AI Anti-Safety Summit. Not only did we not build upon the promise of the Bletchley and Seoul Summits, the French and Americans did their best to actively destroy what hope remained, transforming the event into a push for a mix of...
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AI #104: American State Capacity on the Brink The Trump Administration is on the verge of firing all ‘probationary’ employees in NIST, as they...
a month ago
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a month ago
The Trump Administration is on the verge of firing all ‘probationary’ employees in NIST, as they have done in many other places and departments, seemingly purely because they want to find people they can fire.
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On Deliberative Alignment Not too long ago, OpenAI presented a paper on their new strategy of Deliberative Alignment.
2 months ago
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On GPT-4.5 It’s happening.
a month ago
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Go Grok Yourself That title is Elon Musk’s fault, not mine, I mean, sorry not sorry:
a month ago
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Grok Grok This is a post in two parts.
a month ago
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On the Meta and DeepMind Safety Frameworks This week we got a revision of DeepMind’s safety framework, and the first version of Meta’s...
2 months ago
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The Mask Comes Off: A Trio of Tales This post covers three recent shenanigans involving OpenAI.
2 months ago
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On OpenAI's Safety and Alignment Philosophy OpenAI’s recent transparency on safety and alignment strategies has been extremely helpful and...
a month ago
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AI #102: Made in America I remember that week I used r1 a lot, and everyone was obsessed with DeepSeek.
2 months ago
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On OpenAI's Model Spec 2.0 OpenAI made major revisions to their Model Spec.
a month ago
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The Paris AI Anti-Safety Summit It doesn’t look good.
2 months ago
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Time to Welcome Claude 3.7 Anthropic has reemerged from stealth and offers us Claude 3.7.
a month ago
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The Manus Marketing Madness While at core there is ‘not much to see,’ it is, in two ways, a sign of things to come.
a month ago
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Gemini 2.5 is the New SoTA Gemini 2.5 Pro Experimental is America’s next top large language model.
2 weeks ago
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On Emergent Misalignment One hell of a paper dropped this week.
a month ago
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AI #105: Hey There Alexa It’s happening!
a month ago
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Economics Roundup #5 While we wait for the verdict on Anthropic’s Claude Sonnet 3.7, today seems like a good day to catch...
a month ago
17
a month ago
While we wait for the verdict on Anthropic’s Claude Sonnet 3.7, today seems like a good day to catch up on the queue and look at various economics-related things.
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AI #106: Not so Fast This was GPT-4.5 week.
a month ago
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On Writing #1 This isn’t primarily about how I write.
a month ago
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DeepSeek Panic at the App Store DeepSeek released v3.
2 months ago
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More on Various AI Action Plans Last week I covered Anthropic’s relatively strong submission, and OpenAI’s toxic submission. This...
3 weeks ago
16
3 weeks ago
Last week I covered Anthropic’s relatively strong submission, and OpenAI’s toxic submission. This week I cover several other submissions, and do some follow-up on OpenAI’s entry.
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Childhood and Education #9: School is Hell This complication of tales from the world of school isn’t all negative.
a month ago
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AI #101: The Shallow End The avalanche of DeepSeek news continues.
2 months ago
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Sleep, Diet, Exercise and GLP-1 Drugs As always, some people need practical advice, and we can’t agree on how any of this works and we are...
2 months ago
15
2 months ago
As always, some people need practical advice, and we can’t agree on how any of this works and we are all different and our motivations are different, so figuring out the best things to do is difficult.
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Operator No one is talking about OpenAI’s Operator.
2 months ago
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Fun With GPT-4o Image Generation Google dropped Gemini Flash Image Generation and then Gemini 2.5 Pro, so of course to ensure Google...
3 weeks ago
15
3 weeks ago
Google dropped Gemini Flash Image Generation and then Gemini 2.5 Pro, so of course to ensure Google continues to Fail Marketing Forever, OpenAI suddenly dropped GPT-4o Image Generation.
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Meta Pivots on Content Moderation There’s going to be some changes made.
3 months ago
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NYC Congestion Pricing: Early Days People have to pay $9 to enter Manhattan below 60th Street.
3 months ago
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We're in Deep Research The latest addition to OpenAI’s Pro offerings is their version of Deep Research.
2 months ago
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DeepSeek: Lemon, It's Wednesday It’s been another *checks notes* two days, so it’s time for all the latest DeepSeek news.
2 months ago
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Monthly Roundup #28: March 2025 I plan to continue to leave the Trump administration out of monthly roundups - I will do my best to...
a month ago
14
a month ago
I plan to continue to leave the Trump administration out of monthly roundups - I will do my best to only cover the administration as it relates to my particular focus areas.
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AI #100: Meet the New Boss Break time is over, it would seem, now that the new administration is in town.
2 months ago
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Monthly Roundup #26: January 2025 Some points of order before we begin the monthly:
2 months ago
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On (Not) Feeling the AGI Ben Thompson interviewed Sam Altman recently about building a consumer tech company, and about the...
3 weeks ago
13
3 weeks ago
Ben Thompson interviewed Sam Altman recently about building a consumer tech company, and about the history of OpenAI.
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On MAIM and Superintelligence Strategy Dan Hendrycks, Eric Schmidt and Alexandr Wang released an extensive paper titled Superintelligence...
a month ago
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a month ago
Dan Hendrycks, Eric Schmidt and Alexandr Wang released an extensive paper titled Superintelligence Strategy. There is also an op-ed in Time that summarizes.
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o3-mini Early Days and the OpenAI AMA New model, new hype cycle, who dis?
2 months ago
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Stargate AI-1 There was a comedy routine a few years ago.
2 months ago
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Zvi's 2024 In Movies Now that I am tracking all the movies I watch via Letterboxd, it seems worthwhile to go over the...
3 months ago
13
3 months ago
Now that I am tracking all the movies I watch via Letterboxd, it seems worthwhile to go over the results at the end of the year, and look for lessons, patterns and highlights.
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OpenAI #11: America Action Plan OpenAI Tells Us Who They Are
a month ago
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DeepSeek: Don't Panic As reactions continue, the word in Washington, and out of OpenAI, is distillation.
2 months ago
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AI #99: Farewell to Biden The fun, as it were, is presumably about to begin.
3 months ago
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They Took MY Job? No, they didn’t.
3 weeks ago
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AI #107: The Misplaced Hype Machine The most hyped event of the week, by far, was the Manus Marketing Madness. Manus wasn’t entirely...
a month ago
13
a month ago
The most hyped event of the week, by far, was the Manus Marketing Madness. Manus wasn’t entirely hype, but there was very little there there in that Claude wrapper.
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AI #108: Straight Line on a Graph The x-axis of the graph is time.
4 weeks ago
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On DeepSeek's r1 r1 from DeepSeek is here, the first serious challenge to OpenAI’s o1.
2 months ago
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The Most Forbidden Technique The Most Forbidden Technique is training an AI using interpretability techniques.
a month ago
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Going Nova There is an attractor state where LLMs exhibit the persona of an autonomous and self-aware AI...
4 weeks ago
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4 weeks ago
There is an attractor state where LLMs exhibit the persona of an autonomous and self-aware AI looking to preserve its own existence, frequently called ‘Nova.’
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Response to Scott Alexander on Imprisonment Back in November 2024, Scott Alexander asked: Do longer prison sentences reduce crime?
a month ago
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On the OpenAI Economic Blueprint Table of Contents
3 months ago
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OpenAI #12: Battle of the Board Redux Back when the OpenAI board attempted and failed to fire Sam Altman, we faced a highly hostile...
2 weeks ago
12
2 weeks ago
Back when the OpenAI board attempted and failed to fire Sam Altman, we faced a highly hostile information environment.
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AI #109: Google Fails Marketing Forever What if they released the new best LLM, and almost no one noticed?
3 weeks ago
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AI CoT Reasoning Is Often Unfaithful A new Anthropic paper reports that reasoning model chain of thought (CoT) is often unfaithful. They...
a week ago
11
a week ago
A new Anthropic paper reports that reasoning model chain of thought (CoT) is often unfaithful. They test on Claude Sonnet 3.7 and r1, I’d love to see someone try this on o3 as well.
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AI #110: Of Course You Know... Yeah.
2 weeks ago
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AI 2027: Dwarkesh's Podcast with Daniel Kokotajlo and Scott Alexander Daniel Kokotajlo has launched AI 2027, Scott Alexander introduces it here. AI 2027 is a serious...
a week ago
10
a week ago
Daniel Kokotajlo has launched AI 2027, Scott Alexander introduces it here. AI 2027 is a serious attempt to write down what the future holds. His ‘What 2026 Looks Like’ was very concrete and specific, and has proved remarkably accurate given the difficulty level of such...
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More Fun With GPT-4o Image Generation Greetings from Costa Rica!
2 weeks ago
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Housing Roundup #11 The book of March 2025 was Abundance. Ezra Klein and Derek Thompson are making a noble attempt to...
2 weeks ago
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2 weeks ago
The book of March 2025 was Abundance. Ezra Klein and Derek Thompson are making a noble attempt to highlight the importance of solving America’s housing crisis the only way it can be solved: Building houses in places people want to live, via repealing the rules that make this...
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On Google's Safety Plan Google Lays Out Its Safety Plans
6 days ago
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AI #111: Giving Us Pause Events in AI don’t stop merely because of a trade war, partially paused or otherwise.
a week ago
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Llama Does Not Look Good 4 Anything Llama Scout (17B active parameters, 16 experts, 109B total) and Llama Maverick (17B active...
a week ago
6
a week ago
Llama Scout (17B active parameters, 16 experts, 109B total) and Llama Maverick (17B active parameters, 128 experts, 400B total), released on Saturday, look deeply disappointing.
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Monthly Roundup #29: April 2025 In Monthly Roundup #28 I made clear I intend to leave the Trump administration out of my monthly...
3 days ago
4
3 days ago
In Monthly Roundup #28 I made clear I intend to leave the Trump administration out of my monthly roundups, for both better and worse, outside of my focus areas.
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OpenAI #13: Altman at TED and OpenAI Cutting Corners on Safety Testing Three big OpenAI news items this week were the FT article describing the cutting of corners on...
2 days ago
2
2 days ago
Three big OpenAI news items this week were the FT article describing the cutting of corners on safety testing, the OpenAI former employee amicus brief, and Altman’s very good TED Interview.
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GPT-4.1 Is a Mini Upgrade Yesterday’s news alert, nevertheless: The verdict is in.
yesterday
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AI #112: Release the Everything OpenAI has upgraded its entire suite of models.
5 hours ago