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Overcoming Bias

Overcoming Bias
When They Hear Less Than You Say Something must be done.
a month ago
Overcoming Bias
Celebrity v CEO v Politician Why are celebrities, CEOs, and politicians three different types of people who don’t overlap much?
2 months ago
Overcoming Bias
Feels Gone Wrong The films A Complete Unknown, on Bob Dylan, and In Restless Dreams, on Paul Simon, make vivid to me...
2 months ago
52
2 months ago
The films A Complete Unknown, on Bob Dylan, and In Restless Dreams, on Paul Simon, make vivid to me the huge emotional appeal of becoming a musician like them.
Overcoming Bias
What Priority The Innocent? It is good if criminal law avoids punishing the innocent.
3 months ago
Overcoming Bias
What Would Socrates Do? Christians often ask themselves, as a guide to living, “What would Jesus do?” In her new book Open...
2 months ago
45
2 months ago
Christians often ask themselves, as a guide to living, “What would Jesus do?” In her new book Open Socrates, my podcast-cohost Agnes Callard suggests we instead ask “What would Socrates do?”
Overcoming Bias
What Culture Can You Trust? Star Wars came out when I was 17, and made a big impression on me; I loved it.
3 months ago
Overcoming Bias
Toward More Direct Signals As I’ve attributed a large fraction of human behaviors to signaling incentives, I feel I should...
2 months ago
39
2 months ago
As I’ve attributed a large fraction of human behaviors to signaling incentives, I feel I should address a key signaling question, about which I was recently reminded.
Overcoming Bias
Beware Shared Basic Value Changes Most of our activities can be seen as nested plans, to achieve nested goals.
2 months ago
Overcoming Bias
Decision Selection Bias As futarchy interest and activity are way up lately, this seems a good time to elaborate on one of...
3 months ago
35
3 months ago
As futarchy interest and activity are way up lately, this seems a good time to elaborate on one of its most technical issues, one that @metaproph3t also discussed recently: decision selection bias.
Overcoming Bias
Fear Change Evolution in animals selects not only for static features, like claws, but also for behaviors that...
2 months ago
33
2 months ago
Evolution in animals selects not only for static features, like claws, but also for behaviors that change with context.
Overcoming Bias
Gender Norms Are Complex, Opaque Wondering how to make clear our cultural drift problem, it occurred to me that historical fiction,...
2 months ago
28
2 months ago
Wondering how to make clear our cultural drift problem, it occurred to me that historical fiction, especially using time travel, could make vivid how key norms and values have actually changed greatly over time, and not always in obviously good ways.
Overcoming Bias
Arntz-Gray & I Talk Feminism At 6:30-8p ET today, I’ll be talking with Regan Arntz-Gray on
4 months ago
Overcoming Bias
Conquest and Liberation of Academia During my graduate studies (’93-97), I looked at the history of prizes in science.
3 months ago
Overcoming Bias
Hail Jeffrey Wernick I started to write about prediction markets in 1988, and not until 1999 about using conditional...
3 months ago
22
3 months ago
I started to write about prediction markets in 1988, and not until 1999 about using conditional markets to make org decisions.
Overcoming Bias
Cultural Scenario Probabilities On Oct 25 I posted on the rankings given by polls on 16 cultural drift scenarios re their relative...
4 months ago
20
4 months ago
On Oct 25 I posted on the rankings given by polls on 16 cultural drift scenarios re their relative likelihood, desirability, and ease of influence.
Overcoming Bias
Federal Futarchy Futarchy is a new financial-market-based form of governance.
2 months ago
Overcoming Bias
The Two Big Games Imagine a business meeting which will decide if a new project goes forward, or decide key priorities...
4 months ago
20
4 months ago
Imagine a business meeting which will decide if a new project goes forward, or decide key priorities about it.
Overcoming Bias
Culture Status Report I’ve been focused on cultural drift for about nine months now, and the probability estimates in my...
4 months ago
20
4 months ago
I’ve been focused on cultural drift for about nine months now, and the probability estimates in my last post make this a good time to take stock.
Overcoming Bias
UFO As Aliens Odds, Spending The following are some (lognormal fit) median estimates from some X polls I just ran.
2 months ago
Overcoming Bias
Futarchy Futurism I have often taken on the role of econ futurist, analyzing the social consequences of particular...
4 months ago
17
4 months ago
I have often taken on the role of econ futurist, analyzing the social consequences of particular future techs.
Overcoming Bias
Futarchy and the Transfer Problem I recently tweeted on the ineffectiveness of Medicine, and thus on waste we could cut by cutting...
a month ago
17
a month ago
I recently tweeted on the ineffectiveness of Medicine, and thus on waste we could cut by cutting back on it.
Overcoming Bias
Our Big Oops Humanity has a huge problem, of which few are aware.
a month ago
Overcoming Bias
My Status Circles Most of us have circles of concern, where we care more about folks from our inner circles than our...
a month ago
17
a month ago
Most of us have circles of concern, where we care more about folks from our inner circles than our outer circles.
Overcoming Bias
Futarchy And Self-Dealing Governance Compared to divided government, a more central government has stronger incentives to help the polity...
a month ago
16
a month ago
Compared to divided government, a more central government has stronger incentives to help the polity as a whole.
Overcoming Bias
Reenacting Trauma So far I’ve watched 34 episodes of Couples Therapy, wherein Dr.
a month ago
Overcoming Bias
What Things Really Feel? We humans have brains that guide our behavior, inserting complex “signal-processing” between input...
2 weeks ago
15
2 weeks ago
We humans have brains that guide our behavior, inserting complex “signal-processing” between input from our eyes, ears, etc., and output to control our hands, mouth, etc.
Overcoming Bias
Romantic Decay As Cultural Drift For the last year or so I’ve focused on the idea that our world’s dominant monoculture is slowly...
3 weeks ago
15
3 weeks ago
For the last year or so I’ve focused on the idea that our world’s dominant monoculture is slowly going maladaptive, due to cultural drift.
Overcoming Bias
Can Systems Stop Culture Drift? Compared to before writing, religions that had sacred texts were better able to resist changes to...
a month ago
15
a month ago
Compared to before writing, religions that had sacred texts were better able to resist changes to their religious dogmas and dogma-enforce social rules.
Overcoming Bias
Four Awakenings We start our lives focused on the concrete immediate narrow world around us in space, time, social...
a month ago
14
a month ago
We start our lives focused on the concrete immediate narrow world around us in space, time, social distance, and abstraction.
Overcoming Bias
Drift Poll Winner: Rational Culture Over the last day, I did two sets of polls comparing 16 cultural drift scenarios (detailed here) re...
5 months ago
14
5 months ago
Over the last day, I did two sets of polls comparing 16 cultural drift scenarios (detailed here) re their likelihood and desirability. (I later added influence.) Here are best fit priorities (relative to 100 max), sorted by priority sum:
Overcoming Bias
Love And War And Status “All is Fair in Love and War” - common saying
4 months ago
Overcoming Bias
Respect The Social Wild While most foragers had great respect for nature, our farmer-era ancestors had less resepct.
a month ago
Overcoming Bias
Philosophical Angst As Culture Skepticism In her new book, my podcast co-host Agnes Callard does a great job of expressing classic...
a month ago
Overcoming Bias
Futarchy As Meta Governance While anyone can buy stock in public firms, private equity firms are instead held by a more...
4 weeks ago
12
4 weeks ago
While anyone can buy stock in public firms, private equity firms are instead held by a more concentrated and exclusive set of owners.
Overcoming Bias
How Every Empire Falls On the radio yesterday, I heard the soulful song That’s How Every Empire Falls, written by RB Morris...
5 months ago
12
5 months ago
On the radio yesterday, I heard the soulful song That’s How Every Empire Falls, written by RB Morris sometime before 2005, and performed at various times by Morris, John Prine, and Marianne Faithfull.
Overcoming Bias
Beware Policy Abstraction The recent US presidential election should be fresh enough in your memory to let you directly...
4 months ago
12
4 months ago
The recent US presidential election should be fresh enough in your memory to let you directly confirm that the issues focused on there were biased in two key ways.
Overcoming Bias
What Do I Want? It is relatively easy to identify a list of things that we want, in the sense of preferring a life...
a week ago
12
a week ago
It is relatively easy to identify a list of things that we want, in the sense of preferring a life with more of them to less of them.
Overcoming Bias
Culture Drift Predicts Decadence Babies are naturally pretty selfish, lazy, and present-oriented.
5 months ago
Overcoming Bias
Betrayed By Culture Like most humans ever, I love my culture.
5 months ago
Overcoming Bias
Beware Value Dashboards Vehicles like cars, planes, and boats generally need a) an engine to push them forward, b) steering...
5 months ago
11
5 months ago
Vehicles like cars, planes, and boats generally need a) an engine to push them forward, b) steering to direct their motions, and c) a driver to manage both.
Overcoming Bias
Turn The Ship Or Leave on Lifeboats To those who see just how much better is a civilized life, one of the most terrifying things one can...
a week ago
9
a week ago
To those who see just how much better is a civilized life, one of the most terrifying things one can learn from history is that pretty much all past civilizations fell.
Overcoming Bias
Tension-Filled Black Holes Most matter pushes against nearby matter, via a positive “pressure.” That’s why Earth holds its...
4 months ago
9
4 months ago
Most matter pushes against nearby matter, via a positive “pressure.” That’s why Earth holds its shape, instead of collapsing down to a point mass.
Overcoming Bias
Capitalism, Govt Causes Culture Woes? Many have noticed a key time coincidence.
5 months ago
Overcoming Bias
No Meta Status Orgs In health and medicine, we have many government agencies, and private philanthropies, devoted to...
4 months ago
9
4 months ago
In health and medicine, we have many government agencies, and private philanthropies, devoted to many specific medical conditions, and also to studying and reforming medicine in general, at a meta level.
Overcoming Bias
Our Authoritarian Default Many intellectuals, and intellectual wannabes, would, if pressed accept that UFOs seem sufficiently...
5 months ago
9
5 months ago
Many intellectuals, and intellectual wannabes, would, if pressed accept that UFOs seem sufficiently puzzling to justify more careful study.
Overcoming Bias
Who You Are Vs. What You Control If people can't think clearly about anything that has become part of their identity, then all other...
5 months ago
8
5 months ago
If people can't think clearly about anything that has become part of their identity, then all other things being equal, the best plan is to let as few things into your identity as possible.
Overcoming Bias
Prioritizing Concrete Proposals I think often about the non-immediate future, and wonder how to best allocate effort to make that...
5 months ago
8
5 months ago
I think often about the non-immediate future, and wonder how to best allocate effort to make that future better. And the first steps in this process are often to identify interesting classes of scenarios, and then estimate their desirability, chances, and ease of influence.
Overcoming Bias
Join We Meta-Adaptionists Standard decision theory says that all decisions combine two key factors: opinions on values, and...
a week ago
7
a week ago
Standard decision theory says that all decisions combine two key factors: opinions on values, and beliefs about facts.
Overcoming Bias
Futarchy For Fundraising The Making of Modern Corporate Finance: A History of the Ideas and How They Help Build the Wealth of...
yesterday
2
yesterday
The Making of Modern Corporate Finance: A History of the Ideas and How They Help Build the Wealth of Nations (quotes below), by Donald Chew, persuaded me that for-profit-firm capitalism has varied quite a lot over space and time, and that the U.S.