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Overcoming Bias

Overcoming Bias
Celebrity v CEO v Politician Why are celebrities, CEOs, and politicians three different types of people who don’t overlap much?
3 months ago
Overcoming Bias
When They Hear Less Than You Say Something must be done.
3 months ago
Overcoming Bias
Feels Gone Wrong The films A Complete Unknown, on Bob Dylan, and In Restless Dreams, on Paul Simon, make vivid to me...
4 months ago
61
4 months ago
The films A Complete Unknown, on Bob Dylan, and In Restless Dreams, on Paul Simon, make vivid to me the huge emotional appeal of becoming a musician like them.
Overcoming Bias
What Priority The Innocent? It is good if criminal law avoids punishing the innocent.
4 months ago
Overcoming Bias
What Would Socrates Do? Christians often ask themselves, as a guide to living, “What would Jesus do?” In her new book Open...
3 months ago
55
3 months ago
Christians often ask themselves, as a guide to living, “What would Jesus do?” In her new book Open Socrates, my podcast-cohost Agnes Callard suggests we instead ask “What would Socrates do?”
Overcoming Bias
Toward More Direct Signals As I’ve attributed a large fraction of human behaviors to signaling incentives, I feel I should...
4 months ago
50
4 months ago
As I’ve attributed a large fraction of human behaviors to signaling incentives, I feel I should address a key signaling question, about which I was recently reminded.
Overcoming Bias
What Culture Can You Trust? Star Wars came out when I was 17, and made a big impression on me; I loved it.
4 months ago
Overcoming Bias
Beware Shared Basic Value Changes Most of our activities can be seen as nested plans, to achieve nested goals.
3 months ago
Overcoming Bias
Decision Selection Bias As futarchy interest and activity are way up lately, this seems a good time to elaborate on one of...
4 months ago
38
4 months ago
As futarchy interest and activity are way up lately, this seems a good time to elaborate on one of its most technical issues, one that @metaproph3t also discussed recently: decision selection bias.
Overcoming Bias
Fear Change Evolution in animals selects not only for static features, like claws, but also for behaviors that...
4 months ago
37
4 months ago
Evolution in animals selects not only for static features, like claws, but also for behaviors that change with context.
Overcoming Bias
Gender Norms Are Complex, Opaque Wondering how to make clear our cultural drift problem, it occurred to me that historical fiction,...
3 months ago
34
3 months ago
Wondering how to make clear our cultural drift problem, it occurred to me that historical fiction, especially using time travel, could make vivid how key norms and values have actually changed greatly over time, and not always in obviously good ways.
Overcoming Bias
Hail Jeffrey Wernick I started to write about prediction markets in 1988, and not until 1999 about using conditional...
5 months ago
29
5 months ago
I started to write about prediction markets in 1988, and not until 1999 about using conditional markets to make org decisions.
Overcoming Bias
Arntz-Gray & I Talk Feminism At 6:30-8p ET today, I’ll be talking with Regan Arntz-Gray on
5 months ago
Overcoming Bias
Conquest and Liberation of Academia During my graduate studies (’93-97), I looked at the history of prizes in science.
5 months ago
Overcoming Bias
What Things Really Feel? We humans have brains that guide our behavior, inserting complex “signal-processing” between input...
2 months ago
26
2 months ago
We humans have brains that guide our behavior, inserting complex “signal-processing” between input from our eyes, ears, etc., and output to control our hands, mouth, etc.
Overcoming Bias
Federal Futarchy Futarchy is a new financial-market-based form of governance.
3 months ago
Overcoming Bias
Romantic Decay As Cultural Drift For the last year or so I’ve focused on the idea that our world’s dominant monoculture is slowly...
2 months ago
26
2 months ago
For the last year or so I’ve focused on the idea that our world’s dominant monoculture is slowly going maladaptive, due to cultural drift.
Overcoming Bias
Cultural Scenario Probabilities On Oct 25 I posted on the rankings given by polls on 16 cultural drift scenarios re their relative...
5 months ago
25
5 months ago
On Oct 25 I posted on the rankings given by polls on 16 cultural drift scenarios re their relative likelihood, desirability, and ease of influence.
Overcoming Bias
Futarchy and the Transfer Problem I recently tweeted on the ineffectiveness of Medicine, and thus on waste we could cut by cutting...
2 months ago
25
2 months ago
I recently tweeted on the ineffectiveness of Medicine, and thus on waste we could cut by cutting back on it.
Overcoming Bias
UFO As Aliens Odds, Spending The following are some (lognormal fit) median estimates from some X polls I just ran.
3 months ago
Overcoming Bias
The Two Big Games Imagine a business meeting which will decide if a new project goes forward, or decide key priorities...
5 months ago
23
5 months ago
Imagine a business meeting which will decide if a new project goes forward, or decide key priorities about it.
Overcoming Bias
Respect The Social Wild While most foragers had great respect for nature, our farmer-era ancestors had less resepct.
2 months ago
Overcoming Bias
Futarchy And Self-Dealing Governance Compared to divided government, a more central government has stronger incentives to help the polity...
2 months ago
23
2 months ago
Compared to divided government, a more central government has stronger incentives to help the polity as a whole.
Overcoming Bias
Our Big Oops Humanity has a huge problem, of which few are aware.
2 months ago
Overcoming Bias
Culture Status Report I’ve been focused on cultural drift for about nine months now, and the probability estimates in my...
5 months ago
23
5 months ago
I’ve been focused on cultural drift for about nine months now, and the probability estimates in my last post make this a good time to take stock.
Overcoming Bias
Philosophical Angst As Culture Skepticism In her new book, my podcast co-host Agnes Callard does a great job of expressing classic...
2 months ago
Overcoming Bias
My Status Circles Most of us have circles of concern, where we care more about folks from our inner circles than our...
3 months ago
22
3 months ago
Most of us have circles of concern, where we care more about folks from our inner circles than our outer circles.
Overcoming Bias
What Do I Want? It is relatively easy to identify a list of things that we want, in the sense of preferring a life...
a month ago
22
a month ago
It is relatively easy to identify a list of things that we want, in the sense of preferring a life with more of them to less of them.
Overcoming Bias
Turn The Ship Or Leave on Lifeboats To those who see just how much better is a civilized life, one of the most terrifying things one can...
a month ago
22
a month ago
To those who see just how much better is a civilized life, one of the most terrifying things one can learn from history is that pretty much all past civilizations fell.
Overcoming Bias
Futarchy For Fundraising The Making of Modern Corporate Finance: A History of the Ideas and How They Help Build the Wealth of...
a month ago
21
a month ago
The Making of Modern Corporate Finance: A History of the Ideas and How They Help Build the Wealth of Nations (quotes below), by Donald Chew, persuaded me that for-profit-firm capitalism has varied quite a lot over space and time, and that the U.S.
Overcoming Bias
Futarchy Futurism I have often taken on the role of econ futurist, analyzing the social consequences of particular...
5 months ago
21
5 months ago
I have often taken on the role of econ futurist, analyzing the social consequences of particular future techs.
Overcoming Bias
Four Awakenings We start our lives focused on the concrete immediate narrow world around us in space, time, social...
2 months ago
21
2 months ago
We start our lives focused on the concrete immediate narrow world around us in space, time, social distance, and abstraction.
Overcoming Bias
Futarchy As Meta Governance While anyone can buy stock in public firms, private equity firms are instead held by a more...
2 months ago
20
2 months ago
While anyone can buy stock in public firms, private equity firms are instead held by a more concentrated and exclusive set of owners.
Overcoming Bias
Can Systems Stop Culture Drift? Compared to before writing, religions that had sacred texts were better able to resist changes to...
2 months ago
20
2 months ago
Compared to before writing, religions that had sacred texts were better able to resist changes to their religious dogmas and dogma-enforce social rules.
Overcoming Bias
Reenacting Trauma So far I’ve watched 34 episodes of Couples Therapy, wherein Dr.
3 months ago
Overcoming Bias
Join We Meta-Adaptionists Standard decision theory says that all decisions combine two key factors: opinions on values, and...
a month ago
18
a month ago
Standard decision theory says that all decisions combine two key factors: opinions on values, and beliefs about facts.
Overcoming Bias
Seek What Outcomes Via Futarchy? There’s an off chance that futarchy might solve cultural drift, if we could show that it works, then...
a month ago
18
a month ago
There’s an off chance that futarchy might solve cultural drift, if we could show that it works, then get some big place to adopt it, and also get them to set an outcome metric in conflict with civ collapse.
Overcoming Bias
Unleash Capitalism Capitalism today is in chains, allowed to perform many social functions, but held back from...
a month ago
18
a month ago
Capitalism today is in chains, allowed to perform many social functions, but held back from realizing its full potential.
Overcoming Bias
Love And War And Status “All is Fair in Love and War” - common saying
5 months ago
Overcoming Bias
Drift Poll Winner: Rational Culture Over the last day, I did two sets of polls comparing 16 cultural drift scenarios (detailed here) re...
6 months ago
17
6 months ago
Over the last day, I did two sets of polls comparing 16 cultural drift scenarios (detailed here) re their likelihood and desirability. (I later added influence.) Here are best fit priorities (relative to 100 max), sorted by priority sum:
Overcoming Bias
Can Humanity Choose Its Future? For all my lifetime, futurists have had a dream, of humanity coming together to consciously decide...
3 weeks ago
16
3 weeks ago
For all my lifetime, futurists have had a dream, of humanity coming together to consciously decide its fate.
Overcoming Bias
Adaptive Status Markers As polls and asking LLMs didn’t give me much insight into which status markers are more adaptive,...
3 weeks ago
16
3 weeks ago
As polls and asking LLMs didn’t give me much insight into which status markers are more adaptive, let me try to think the issue through myself.
Overcoming Bias
How Every Empire Falls On the radio yesterday, I heard the soulful song That’s How Every Empire Falls, written by RB Morris...
6 months ago
15
6 months ago
On the radio yesterday, I heard the soulful song That’s How Every Empire Falls, written by RB Morris sometime before 2005, and performed at various times by Morris, John Prine, and Marianne Faithfull.
Overcoming Bias
Betrayed By Culture Like most humans ever, I love my culture.
7 months ago
Overcoming Bias
Beware Policy Abstraction The recent US presidential election should be fresh enough in your memory to let you directly...
6 months ago
15
6 months ago
The recent US presidential election should be fresh enough in your memory to let you directly confirm that the issues focused on there were biased in two key ways.
Overcoming Bias
Should I Be Clearly Conservative? A conservative is someone who stands athwart history, yelling Stop, at a time when no one is...
a month ago
15
a month ago
A conservative is someone who stands athwart history, yelling Stop, at a time when no one is inclined to do so, or to have much patience with those who so urge it. ― William F.
Overcoming Bias
Why Not Inquire Together More? My podcast cohost Agnes Callard has been thinking lately about why we don’t have more deep...
a month ago
15
a month ago
My podcast cohost Agnes Callard has been thinking lately about why we don’t have more deep conversations wherein we try to figure out important things together.
Overcoming Bias
Culture Drift Predicts Decadence Babies are naturally pretty selfish, lazy, and present-oriented.
7 months ago
Overcoming Bias
Status Marker Polls In an attempt to learn more about status, I asked some polls comparing status markers.
3 weeks ago
Overcoming Bias
Songs Regulate Emotion The point I make in this post is quite unlikely to be original.
3 weeks ago
Overcoming Bias
Beware Value Dashboards Vehicles like cars, planes, and boats generally need a) an engine to push them forward, b) steering...
6 months ago
14
6 months ago
Vehicles like cars, planes, and boats generally need a) an engine to push them forward, b) steering to direct their motions, and c) a driver to manage both.
Overcoming Bias
Efficiency Is Sacred We all see some things as sacred.
4 weeks ago
Overcoming Bias
AI Is GPT, & GPTs Go Slow Back in the dot-com boom of the late 90s, many said a new economy loomed that invalidated all the...
4 weeks ago
13
4 weeks ago
Back in the dot-com boom of the late 90s, many said a new economy loomed that invalidated all the old rules, and would soon cause big fast change.
Overcoming Bias
Tension-Filled Black Holes Most matter pushes against nearby matter, via a positive “pressure.” That’s why Earth holds its...
6 months ago
13
6 months ago
Most matter pushes against nearby matter, via a positive “pressure.” That’s why Earth holds its shape, instead of collapsing down to a point mass.
Overcoming Bias
Might Makes The Best Right Does “might make right”?
a month ago
Overcoming Bias
Who You Are Vs. What You Control If people can't think clearly about anything that has become part of their identity, then all other...
7 months ago
12
7 months ago
If people can't think clearly about anything that has become part of their identity, then all other things being equal, the best plan is to let as few things into your identity as possible.
Overcoming Bias
Our Authoritarian Default Many intellectuals, and intellectual wannabes, would, if pressed accept that UFOs seem sufficiently...
6 months ago
12
6 months ago
Many intellectuals, and intellectual wannabes, would, if pressed accept that UFOs seem sufficiently puzzling to justify more careful study.
Overcoming Bias
Capitalism, Govt Causes Culture Woes? Many have noticed a key time coincidence.
7 months ago
Overcoming Bias
No Meta Status Orgs In health and medicine, we have many government agencies, and private philanthropies, devoted to...
5 months ago
12
5 months ago
In health and medicine, we have many government agencies, and private philanthropies, devoted to many specific medical conditions, and also to studying and reforming medicine in general, at a meta level.
Overcoming Bias
Prioritizing Concrete Proposals I think often about the non-immediate future, and wonder how to best allocate effort to make that...
6 months ago
11
6 months ago
I think often about the non-immediate future, and wonder how to best allocate effort to make that future better. And the first steps in this process are often to identify interesting classes of scenarios, and then estimate their desirability, chances, and ease of influence.
Overcoming Bias
Details Avoid Bias Long ago I noted:
a week ago
Overcoming Bias
Elite Confidence Rob Henderson has a great essay summarizing the expert vs elite distinction I discussed in 6 prior...
a week ago
7
a week ago
Rob Henderson has a great essay summarizing the expert vs elite distinction I discussed in 6 prior posts (1 2 3 4 5 6):
Overcoming Bias
Surprisingly Blind You might expect us to understand our romantic couple breakups very well.
a week ago
Overcoming Bias
Sincerity Adds To Drift The 2008 book Ritual and Its Consequences: An Essay on the Limits of Sincerity is hard for me to...
a week ago
6
a week ago
The 2008 book Ritual and Its Consequences: An Essay on the Limits of Sincerity is hard for me to understand, but I’ve been trying to figure it out, as the concepts it considers seem interesting and important:
Overcoming Bias
Abstraction Worsens Drift My Ph.D.
a week ago
Overcoming Bias
Culture-Guiding Futarchy Most possible solutions to cultural drift offer humanity little conscious collective control over...
2 weeks ago
2
2 weeks ago
Most possible solutions to cultural drift offer humanity little conscious collective control over its future.