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Marcus on AI

Marcus on AI
“Nvidia could soon take a serious hit, too” The market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent, but today might be the day.
2 months ago
Marcus on AI
Where will AI be at the end of 2027? A bet We, Gary Marcus, author, scientist, and noted AI skeptic, and Miles Brundage, an independent AI...
3 months ago
59
3 months ago
We, Gary Marcus, author, scientist, and noted AI skeptic, and Miles Brundage, an independent AI policy researcher who recently left OpenAI and is bullish on AI progress, have agreed to the following bet, at 10:1 odds, with criteria drawn from two earlier Substack essays by Gary...
Marcus on AI
o3, AGI, the art of the demo, and what you can expect in 2025 OpenAI’s new model was revealed yesterday; its most fervent believers think AGI has already arrived....
3 months ago
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3 months ago
OpenAI’s new model was revealed yesterday; its most fervent believers think AGI has already arrived. Here’s what you should pay attention to in the coming year.
Marcus on AI
The impeccable logic of Sam Altman From a Bloomberg interview, spotted and summarized by Harlan Stewart, presented without further...
2 months ago
53
2 months ago
From a Bloomberg interview, spotted and summarized by Harlan Stewart, presented without further comment:
Marcus on AI
Could 2025 see the largest cyberattack in history? In a just-published series of very brief essays called “The Incredible, World-Altering ‘Black Swan’...
3 months ago
50
3 months ago
In a just-published series of very brief essays called “The Incredible, World-Altering ‘Black Swan’ Events That Could Upend Life in 2025”, Politico asked “15 futurists, foreign policy analysts and other prognosticators”, including me, “to provide some explosive potential...
Marcus on AI
𝗼𝟯 “𝗔𝗥𝗖 𝗔𝗚𝗜” 𝗽𝗼𝘀𝘁𝗺𝗼𝗿𝘁𝗲𝗺 𝗺𝗲𝗴𝗮𝘁𝗵𝗿𝗲𝗮𝗱: 𝘄𝗵𝘆 𝘁𝗵𝗶𝗻𝗴𝘀 𝗴𝗼𝘁... Kevin Roose, of Hard Fork and NYT, was so impressed with OpenAI’s rollout that he joked “of course...
3 months ago
Marcus on AI
Breaking news: AGI is not imminent! Influencers have gone wild lately claiming that AGI is imminent.
2 months ago
Marcus on AI
Sam Altman thinks that AGI is basically a solved problem. I don’t. Here’s why. Yesterday Sam Altman claimed in a new blog post that “We are now confident we how to build AGI as we...
2 months ago
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2 months ago
Yesterday Sam Altman claimed in a new blog post that “We are now confident we how to build AGI as we have traditionally understood it”, alleging that OpenAI (which has not demonstrated AGI) was now on to new and better things.
Marcus on AI
The Five Stages of AGI Grief And a look at how people keep trying to redefine (or even revoke) the goalposts of what Artificial...
2 months ago
46
2 months ago
And a look at how people keep trying to redefine (or even revoke) the goalposts of what Artificial General Intelligence means.
Marcus on AI
AGI versus “broad, shallow intelligence” The BSI we have now, versus the AGI we want
2 months ago
Marcus on AI
25 AI Predictions for 2025, from Marcus on AI With a review of last year’s predictions
3 months ago
Marcus on AI
AI still lacks “common” sense, 70 years later What’s obvious to people still isn’t always obvious to machines
2 months ago
Marcus on AI
AGI isn’t coming in 2025 — and GPT-5 may well not emerge this year, either. Much was quietly revealed yesterday
2 months ago
Marcus on AI
8 signs that Donald Trump has a progressive form of dementia And how our media is failing, wildly, in one of the most important stories in US history
5 months ago
Marcus on AI
AI Agents: Hype versus Reality, redux The contrast couldn’t be starker
2 months ago
Marcus on AI
Generative AI’s Continuing Copyright Problems, an Essay in Memory of Suchir Balaji, 1998 - 2024 In early November, I had a stimulating Zoom call with a former OpenAI employee and Berkeley graduate...
3 months ago
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3 months ago
In early November, I had a stimulating Zoom call with a former OpenAI employee and Berkeley graduate named Suchir Balaji, who had just left OpenAI.
Marcus on AI
“LLMs amplify existing security risks and introduce new ones” also: “the work of securing AI systems will never be complete”
2 months ago
Marcus on AI
A new AI scaling law shell game? Scaling laws were supposed to be, well, laws.
4 months ago
Marcus on AI
Satya Nadella and the three stages of scientific truth A textbook case in how good ideas are often initially throttled
4 months ago
Marcus on AI
Cognitive scientist Gary Marcus says AI must be regulated. He has a plan. Fantastic writeup of my views today at The Wall Street Journal:
4 months ago
Marcus on AI
On hype, and the unbearable banality of ChatGPT’s poetry A new AI study is making the rounds, claiming that ChatGPT can write poetry that is...
4 months ago
35
4 months ago
A new AI study is making the rounds, claiming that ChatGPT can write poetry that is “indistinguishable” from William Shakespeare.
Marcus on AI
Hot take on an AI catfight Yesterday OpenAI announced a huge infrastructure project, partly framed as pushing the U.S.
2 months ago
Marcus on AI
An AI rumor you won’t want to miss Converging evidence that the core hypothesis driving generative AI may be wrong
4 months ago
Marcus on AI
Update re: Microsoft and training data Relevant to the post I sent earlier today,...
4 months ago
33
4 months ago
Relevant to the post I sent earlier today, https://www.howtogeek.com/is-microsoft-using-your-word-documents-to-train-ai/says that an unnamed spokesperson at Microsoft claims that “Microsoft does not use customer data from Microsoft 365 consumer and commercial applications to...
Marcus on AI
Humanity’s “Oh shit!” AI moment? Not yet, but it could come sooner than you think. Not because we are close to AGI, but because we...
3 months ago
33
3 months ago
Not yet, but it could come sooner than you think. Not because we are close to AGI, but because we already have machines that can say one thing and do something else altogether.
Marcus on AI
Two visions of AI’s future It’s not looking good
4 months ago
Marcus on AI
Sora still appears to have trouble with physics Exactly as I warned in February
3 months ago
Marcus on AI
The 2023 White House Executive Order on AI has Been Rescinded See here.
2 months ago
Marcus on AI
Five things most people don't seem to understand about DeepSeek DeepSeek r1 is not smarter than earlier models, just trained more cheaply
2 months ago
Marcus on AI
Don’t Ride This Bike! Generative AI’s persistent trouble with compositionality and parts When the text-to-image AI generation system DALL-E2 was released in April 2022, the two of us,...
3 months ago
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3 months ago
When the text-to-image AI generation system DALL-E2 was released in April 2022, the two of us, together with Scott Aaronson, ran some informal experiments to probe its abilities.
Marcus on AI
The race for "AI Supremacy" is over — at least for now. Decades of government kowtowing to Big Tech has thus far failed to produce a decisive victory
2 months ago
Marcus on AI
Hard-forked! Casey Newton’s distorted portrait of Gary Marcus and AI skepticism What Casey Newton’s new essay skewering AI skepticism does—and does not—get right
3 months ago
Marcus on AI
AI influencer hype gone wild Reality is quite the opposite
5 months ago
Marcus on AI
Casey (Newton) Strikes Out His continued skepticism of AI skepticism continues to miss the mark
3 months ago
Marcus on AI
ChatGPT, at Age Two The bullshit just keeps on coming.
4 months ago
Marcus on AI
CONFIRMED: LLMs have indeed reached a point of diminishing returns Science, sociology, and the likely financial collapse of the Generative AI bubble
4 months ago
Marcus on AI
PSA: Microsoft may be training on your private data without your knowledge The Great Data Heist continues.
4 months ago
Marcus on AI
Deep Research, Deep Bullshit, and the potential (model) collapse of science Sam Altman’s hype might just bite us all in the behind
2 months ago
Marcus on AI
ChatGPT in Shambles After two years of massive investment and endless hype, GPT’s reliability problems persist
a month ago
Marcus on AI
Which CEO will be the last to see it? What kept me going during the dark years of 2022 and 2023 when Generative AI was wildly overhyped...
4 months ago
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4 months ago
What kept me going during the dark years of 2022 and 2023 when Generative AI was wildly overhyped and I was constantly ridiculed was the secure knowledge that the truth would eventually come out.
Marcus on AI
Did Elon Musk just Mu$k Sam Altman? With some bonus eye candy to lighten the mood
a month ago
Marcus on AI
Shame on Google, twice A very, very brief Super Bowl special
a month ago
Marcus on AI
OpenAI Cries Foul Irony is for losers
2 months ago
Marcus on AI
GenAI in two words: ”Success Theater” Success Theater
a month ago
Marcus on AI
Google, 2001: Don’t Be Evil Google, 2025: Fuck It
a month ago
Marcus on AI
An epidemic of weirdly precise AI butt facts The parade of made-up numbers never stops
5 months ago
Marcus on AI
Elon Musk's inability to listen to others is torching almost everything he touches Last July, when I was still a regular user of X, I warned, not entirely in jest, that Elon Musk was...
a month ago
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a month ago
Last July, when I was still a regular user of X, I warned, not entirely in jest, that Elon Musk was taking a flamethrower to his own reputation.
Marcus on AI
Irony too funny for words Oops
a month ago
Marcus on AI
OpenAI, in deep trouble Maybe burning money isn’t the answer
a month ago
Marcus on AI
Grok 3 Beta in Shambles Maximal Truth still seems far away
a month ago
Marcus on AI
𝗔𝗜 𝗚𝗲𝗼𝗽𝗼𝗹𝗶𝘁𝗶𝗰𝘀 𝗱𝗲𝗯𝗮𝘁𝗲! My conversation with China’s Victor Gao plus a hot take on... [Sorry to swamp your mailboxes today, but there is a lot of important AI stuff happening.]
2 months ago
Marcus on AI
Grok 3 Hot Take Elon Musk promised that Grok 3 would be the smartest AI ever.
a month ago
Marcus on AI
Five ways in which the last 3 months — and especially the DeepSeek era — have vindicated “Deep... A demonized paper from three years ago that has stood the test of time
a month ago
Marcus on AI
GPT 4.5 is no GPT-5 Investors should be worried
a month ago
Marcus on AI
Paris AI Summit Train Wreck Almost nobody seems happy
a month ago
Marcus on AI
AlphaGeometry2: Impressive accomplishment, but still a long path ahead What GoogleDeepMind’s latest does and doesn’t show, and what we like about it
a month ago
Marcus on AI
Breaking: OpenAI's efforts at pure scaling have hit a wall — There is no wall
a month ago
Marcus on AI
Hot take: GPT 4.5 is a nothing burger Pure scaling in shambles
a month ago
Marcus on AI
Nobel Prizes and The AI Hype Hall of Fame GPT-5 may not be here, but just wait til you see the new round of hype
3 weeks ago
Marcus on AI
WARNING: Elon Musk is crippling the future of the United States And I am not sure he even understands the consequences of his own actions
a month ago
Marcus on AI
Ezra Klein’s new take on AGI – and why I think it’s probably wrong In a new episode of his podcast with Ben Buchanan former special adviser for artificial intelligence...
a month ago
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a month ago
In a new episode of his podcast with Ben Buchanan former special adviser for artificial intelligence under Biden, entitled, The Government knows A.G.I.
Marcus on AI
Everything I warned about in Taming Silicon Valley is rapidly becoming our reality It brings me no joy to say that
a month ago
Marcus on AI
Is Elon Musk “dumb”? Maybe not, but there’s something systematically wrong
a month ago
Marcus on AI
The United States was founded on speaking up against tyranny This post isn’t about AI; it’s about our future
a month ago
Marcus on AI
Elon Musk’s terrifying vision for AI All your thoughts belong to him
a month ago
Marcus on AI
Musk, Grok, and “rigorous adherence to truth“ Elon Musk, yesterday: “Rigorous adherence to truth is the only way to build safe Al.”
a week ago
Marcus on AI
Hinton vs Musk Standing with my long-term nemesis, standing with science
a month ago
Marcus on AI
Decoding (and debunking) Hard Fork’s Kevin Roose His latest New York Times piece tells us a lot about what he doesn’t really understand
a month ago
Marcus on AI
Hype, Anthropic’s Dario Amodei, the podcasters who love him — and how the New York Times’ commentary... Real journalists do due diligence
3 weeks ago
Marcus on AI
Meta pirated at least 101 of my books and articles, and tens of millions of others And they knew perfectly well what they were doing
2 weeks ago
Marcus on AI
Urgent warning: Black Mirror has entered the United States, with AI as its handmaiden AI as a smoke screen to cover for authoritarian actions
3 weeks ago
Marcus on AI
AI Coding Fantasy meets Pac-Man Guess who won?
3 weeks ago
Marcus on AI
GenAI’s day of reckoning may have come It’s not just the stock price
a week ago
Marcus on AI
Unwoven How the CoreWeave IPO may be the beginning of the end
a week ago
Marcus on AI
Breaking GPT-5 news To my amazement, I just came back from a trip to Europe only to find an invite to a private GPT-5...
4 days ago
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4 days ago
To my amazement, I just came back from a trip to Europe only to find an invite to a private GPT-5 demo, and I tried it.
Marcus on AI
AI has (sort of) passed the Turing Test; here’s why that hardly matters Don’t panic
3 days ago
Marcus on AI
Questions about President Trump from a former psychology professor Is he well?
2 days ago
Marcus on AI
Did an LLM help write Trump’s trade plan? Probably yes
2 days ago
Marcus on AI
April fools bring May hallucinations No, Grok didn’t just solve a legendary math problem. But it gets worse.
5 hours ago