In week 15 of the humanities crash course, we started making our way out of classical antiquity and into the Middle Ages. The reading for this week was Boethius’s The Consolation of Philosophy, a book perhaps second only to the Bible in influencing Medieval thinking. I used the beautiful edition from Standard Ebooks. Readings Boethius was a philosopher, senator, and Christian born shortly after the fall of the Western Roman Empire. After a long, fruitful, and respectable life, he fell out of favor with the Ostrogothic king Theodoric and was imprisoned and executed without a trial. He wrote The Consolation while awaiting execution. Boethius imagines being visited in prison by a mysterious woman, Lady Philosophy, who helps him put his situation in perspective. He bemoans his luck. Lady Philosophy explains that he can’t expect to have good fortune without bad fortune. She evokes the popular image of the Wheel of Fortune, whose turns sometimes bring benefits and sometimes curses. She argues that rather than focusing on fortune, Boethius should focus on the highest good: happiness. She identifies true happiness with God, who transcends worldly goods and standards. They then discuss free will — does it exist? Lady Philosophy argues that it does and that it doesn’t conflict with God’s eternal knowledge since God exists outside of time. And how does one square God’s goodness with the presence of evil in the world? Lady Philosophy redefines power and punishment, arguing that the wicked are punished by their evil deeds: what may seem to us like a blessing may actually be a curse. God transcends human categories, including being in time. We can’t know God’s mind with our limited capabilities — an answer that echos the Book of Job. Audiovisual Music: classical works related to death: Schubert’s String Quartet No. 14 and Mozart’s Requiem. I hadn’t heard the Schubert quartet before; reading about it before listening helped me contextualize the music. I first heard Mozart’s Requiem in one of my favorite movies, Miloš Forman’s AMADEUS. It’s long been one of my favorite pieces of classical music. A fascinating discovery: while re-visiting this piece in Apple’s Classical Music app, I learned that the app presents in-line annotations for some popular pieces as the music plays. Listening while reading these notes helped me understand this work better. It’s a great example of how digital media can aid understandability. Art: Hieronymus Bosch, Albrecht Dürer, and Pieter Bruegel the Elder. I knew all three’s work, but was more familiar with Bosch and Dürer than with Bruegel. These videos helped: Cinema: among films possibly related to Boethius, Perplexity recommended Fred Zinnemann’s A MAN OF ALL SEASONS (1966), which won six Academy Awards including best picture. It’s a biopic of Sir Thomas More (1478—1535). While well-shot, scripted, and acted I found it uneven — but relevant. Reflections I can see why Perplexity would suggest pairing this movie with this week’s reading. Both Boethius and More were upstanding and influential members of society unfairly imprisoned and executed for crossing their despotic rulers. (Theodoric and Henry VIII, respectively.) The Consolation of Philosophy had parallels with the Book of Job: both grapple with God’s agency in a world where evil exists. Job’s answer is that we’re incapable of comprehending the mind of God. Boethius refines the argument by proposing that God exists outside of time entirely, viewing all events in a single, eternal act of knowing. While less philosophically abstract, the movie casts these themes in more urgent light. More’s crime is being principled and refusing to allow pressure from an authoritarian regime to compromise his integrity. At one point, he says I believe, when statesmen forsake their own private conscience for the sake of their public duties… they lead their country by a short route to chaos. Would that more people in leadership today had More’s integrity. That said, learning about the film’s historical context makes me think it paints him as more saintly than he likely was. Still, it offers a powerful portrayal of a man willing to pay the ultimate price for staying true to his beliefs. Notes on Note-taking ChatGPT failed me for the first time in the course. As I’ve done throughout, I asked the LLM for summaries and explanations as I read. I soon realized ChatGPT was giving me information for a different chapter than the one I was reading. The problem was with the book’s structure. The Consolation is divided into five books; each includes a prose chapter followed by a verse poem. ChatGPT was likely trained on a version that numbered these sections differently than the one I was reading. It took considerable back and forth to get the LLM on track. At least it suggested useful steps to do so. Specifically, it asked me to copy the beginning sentence of each chapter so it could orient itself. After three or so chapters of this, it started providing accurate responses. The lesson: as good as LLMs are, we can’t take their responses at face value. In a context like this — i.e., using it to learn about books I’m reading — it helps keep me on my toes, which helps me retain more of what I’m reading. But I’m wary of using AI for subjects where I have less competency. (E.g., medical advice.) Also new this week: I’ve started capturing Obsidian notes for the movies I’m watching. I created a new template based on the one I use for literature notes, replacing the metadata fields for the author and publisher with director and studio respectively. Up Next Gioia recommends Sun Tzu and Lao Tzu. I’ve read both a couple of times; I’ll only revisit The Art of War at this time. (I read Ursula Le Guin’s translation of the Tao Te Ching last year, so I’ll skip it to make space for other stuff.) Again, there’s a YouTube playlist for the videos I’m sharing here. I’m also sharing these posts via Substack if you’d like to subscribe and comment. See you next week!

Masters of Uncertainty: The Navy SEAL Way to Turn Stress into Success for You and Your Team By Rich Diviney  Amplify Publishing, 2025 We’re dealing with unprecedented levels of uncertainty. But that shouldn’t disempower us. Diviney, a former Navy SEAL, provides insights for becoming a “Master of Uncertainty” — i.e., adept at acting skillfully even in trying circumstances. The book is divided into three parts. The first explains how our bodies react to uncertain, fast-changing circumstances (e.g., with stress) and offers practical means for making the most of such conditions. For example, we can reframe our contexts (or “horizons”) to include only that which is in our immediate awareness and control and focus on small, near-term wins. We can also ask ourselves better questions and apply physical techniques (e.g., breathing patterns) to modulate stress. Reframing is an important component of the strategic design toolbox, so this section resonated with me. The second part of the book explores how our internal narratives — what we believe about ourselves and our goals — shape our behavior under uncertainty. Our attributes set natural constraints: for example, my physiology simply doesn’t allow me to be a pro basketball player. Self-identity is also powerful; it’s easier to quit smoking if you see yourself as a nonsmoker. And of course, having clear objectives is essential: you need to know what direction to move towards. Diviney echoes an idea we saw in On Grand Strategy: that you must keep the general direction in mind while paying attention to local conditions; if you encounter a swamp while traveling south, you may need to walk east for a while. Part three explains how to use these skills to develop teams that handle uncertainty effectively. Diviney proposes a leadership approach called dynamic subordination: Team members remain present and move in unison, working seamlessly to enhance one another’s strengths and buttress weaknesses. When one team member’s specific skills or attributes are needed, they step up and lead. The others then automatically move to support them fully. This requires deep trust and alignment, which is why there’s a chapter devoted to each. (The one on alignment focuses on developing a particular culture for your team.) Dynamic subordination offers a promising model for combining top-down direction with bottom-up adaptation to real-world conditions. Parts one and two echo Stoic ideas — especially around focus and self-regulation. Dynamic subordination was new to me. It sounds like a genuinely useful approach, albeit one that calls for 1) a very particular org culture and 2) a carefully vetted team. The SEALs meet both conditions; business teams less so. In our podcast, Harry said Masters of Uncertainty is in the running for his 2025 book of the year. I can see why: it’s a practical, short, and well-grounded guide for anyone designing teams or systems meant to thrive in fast-changing, unpredictable environments. (Aren’t they all?) Masters of Uncertainty by Rich Diviney

Alas, it’s time once again to revisit VUCA. Early in the pandemic, I gave two presentations about dealing with uncertainty. Institutions were struggling to respond to COVID. Many people were freaking out. But not me: I had a conceptual framework that helped me make sense of what was going on. Now that we’re again living through uncertainty, I wanted to share what I said at the time. Turns out, I never wrote about the framework itself. Let’s correct that. When contexts shift, it’s harder to act skillfully. The end of the Cold War was such a time. The tense order that emerged after World War II had ended; military leaders had to make decisions in unfamiliar territory. In response, the U.S. Army War College produced VUCA, a framework for describing unsettling contexts. It’s an acronym of their four main characteristics: Volatility: things are changing fast and often. You may understand what’s happening, but the pace of change makes it hard to respond skillfully. Uncertainty: you may understand the challenge’s basic cause and effect, but not much else. Key knowledge might be missing, but you don’t know. Complexity: the challenge has too many factors and components to grok. You have access to information — perhaps too much to connect the dots. Ambiguity: the situation is unclear, even if you have information. Causal relationships aren’t obvious, and past experiences may not apply. These four characteristics are often rendered in a 2x2 matrix. One dimension measures the degree to which we can predict the results of our actions. The other measures how much we know. For example, if we can’t predict outcomes and lack reliable knowledge, we’re in ambiguity. If we understand the situation but things are changing rapidly, we’re facing volatility. Adapted from a diagram by Nate Bennett and G. James Lemoine in the Harvard Business Review As you may expect, different characteristics call for different responses. My understanding comes from Bob Johansen’s VUCA Prime framework, which I paraphrase here: Volatility calls for vision. Draw a clear, compelling picture of where you’re heading beyond the current turmoil. Uncertainty calls for understanding. Look past headlines to the deeper forces driving change. Complexity calls for clarity. Map the system; get a grip on the entities and relationships driving change. Ambiguity calls for agility. Take the next small step; get your bearings; correct course quickly. Keeping cool isn’t easy, but it can be done. It requires some detachment. Tune out the news and take a longer-term view. Read the Stoics. Ask yourself: what’s the worst that could happen? How much is actually under your control? How can you take care of yourself, your family, and your community? Managing and structuring information flows is crucial. You need systems that surface the right information — clear, trustworthy, timely, and aligned with your goals. Information architects can help, since our focus is designing environments that support insight and skillful action. Above all, don’t panic. Nobody guaranteed this would be an easy ride. Change is the nature of things. If you panic, you’ll freeze or thrash about; either response makes things worse. Business as usual isn’t in the cards for us, but acting skillfully can be. If you found these ideas useful, check out Johansen’s Leaders Make the Future, which offers ten skills leaders can develop to thrive in a VUCA world. Much of what I know about the subject comes from this practical, well-grounded book. (Aaand… I just realized there’s a new edition — time to re-visit!)

Conversations on the Traction Heroes podcast are proving highly relevant. To wit, episode 7 delves into how the questions we ask ourselves influence our ability to act skillfully. This came up in the context of dealing with uncertainty. Specifically, Harry brought to the conversation the following fragment from Rich Diviney’s book Masters of Uncertainty: To remain grounded in the sphere of what you know and control, cultivate a habit of asking yourself better questions. The brain operates with a question-answer mechanism: it continuously assesses the surroundings with questions and then conjures answers. This typically happens subliminally and instantly, faster than you can notice. You can, however, participate consciously in this process and influence your thoughts and feelings by introducing your own questions. When you introduce a question into conscious thought, the mind is compelled to come up with answers. The problem is that it’s all too common to default to reactive, negative, and sometimes emotion-laden questions such as “Why am I so bad at this?” or “Why can’t I succeed?” Your brain will immediately begin to give you answers to these—yet the answers will not lead to enlightenment. Rather, they will spiral you into further negativity and anxiety. Masters of Uncertainty steer their thoughts with better, more effective questions — questions that center on what they can ascertain and influence. Well aware that knowledge morphs into power, they prime their minds with inquiries like “What do I know? What can I control?” The brain can’t help but answer these questions in ways that put you at the helm. These are the inquiries that empower and hone your focus on traversing uncertainty, not succumbing to it. I hadn’t heard of Masters of Uncertainty before, but I’m reading it and hope to do a book notes post soon. Working with uncertainty is especially relevant now, given the changes rocking global markets. At least part of the secret to navigating turbulence is learning to keep your cool. It’s not a new idea (the Stoics and Buddhists said this centuries ago) but it’s worth revisiting — and internalizing. Traction Heroes ep. 7: Better Questions