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This post is a follow on from Powering the Mars Base. It’s an extended riff on the following thought experiment: What is the most electrical power you could extract from an integrated Starship-delivered nuclear reactor on Mars? The usual caveats apply. I have taught nuclear physics but I am not a reactor designer – which will shortly become obvious to those of you who Know. No liability is accepted for attempts to install open Brayton cycle nuclear turbines in Starships, with or without SpaceX permission. At the outset, let’s rehearse the underlying assumptions. A Starship has a 9 m diameter, …
2 months ago

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More from Casey Handmer's blog

Why am I searched every time I go to Australia?

The Australian Border Force won’t stop searching me and my personal devices when I visit Australia. Despite being an Australian citizen, under Australian law, I have zero recourse to this continued flagrant invasion of my privacy. After two years of harassment I am publicizing this as a considered next step in an effort to make it stop.  This is somewhat different from my usual articles about space, energy, and technology – we will return to that theme shortly. As far as possible, I will relate only facts and keep editorializing to a minimum. I will update this post as the …

2 weeks ago 1 votes
To Conquer the Primary Energy Consumption Layer of Our Entire Civilization

[Originally posted on the Terraform blog April 3, 2025.] Three years ago we set out to make cheap synthetic natural gas from sunlight and air. At the time I didn’t fully appreciate that we had kicked off the process of recompiling the foundation layer of our entire industrial stack.  Last year, we made cheap pipeline grade natural gas from sunlight and air and expanded our hydrocarbon fuel road map to include methanol, a versatile liquid fuel and chemical precursor for practically every other kind of oil-derived chemical on the market. Unlimited synthetic methane and methanol underpinning global energy supply is a good start, but …

a month ago 17 votes
Long duration propellant stability in Starship

Some ideas on preventing cryogenic propellant boiloff in Starship during long duration cruise or while operating orbital fuel depots. The usual caveats apply! One of the major concerns with using Starship for the Human Landing System is that propellant (cryogenically liquid methane and oxygen) need to a) be transferred in orbit and b) maintained for the duration of the mission, which could be weeks, months, or years. In particular, no astronaut wants to board their Starship after a successful 6 week sortie on the Moon only to find the fuel’s boiled off and they’re stuck.  The trick lies in using energy …

a month ago 23 votes
California’s path to redemption

California is by far the richest and most powerful polity led by Progressive ideals, and it has taken a beating of late. In this post, I discuss a practical roadmap by which California must reclaim its mantle as the shining city on the hill, an embodiment of the positive attributes of Progressive ideals and material optimism, and once again become a target of aspirational upward mobility. This will not be an easy road. Decades of complacency have squandered enviable resources and potential. But I believe a strength of America is syncretism, with the marketplace of ideas providing robust competition for …

2 months ago 27 votes
What can we send to Mars on the first Starships?

As of today, it is 601 days until October 17, 2026, when the mass-optimal launch window to Mars opens next.  While I don’t have any privileged information, it’s fun to speculate about what SpaceX could choose to send on its first Starship flights to Mars. (Spoiler alert: Rods from the gods…) Over the next 600 days, SpaceX has a number of key technologies to demonstrate; orbit, reuse, refill, and chill. It’s hard to make predictions, particularly about the future. I’m optimistic that SpaceX will have multiple fully fueled Starships ready to go in October next year, to be followed by …

2 months ago 42 votes

More in science

Finding Beauty and Truth in Mundane Occurrences

The physicist Sidney Nagel delights in solving mysteries of the universe that are hiding in plain sight. The post Finding Beauty and Truth in Mundane Occurrences first appeared on Quanta Magazine

2 days ago 4 votes
Environmental Enforcement Slows Under Trump

Federal enforcement of environmental laws has slowed significantly under President Trump. Read more on E360 →

2 days ago 2 votes
Analytic Combinatorics Redux

Earlier today I gave a talk in the graduate student seminar titled “Counting is Hard. Complex Analysis is Easy.” based in part on my recent blog post about analytic combinatorics and based in part on Varilly’s notes on Dirichlet’s Theorem, showing how to count the number of trees of a certain shape and the number of “primes of a certain shape” by doing complex analysis. While prepping for this talk, I realized there’s a very pretty geometric way to see what’s going on when counting rooted ordered ternary trees! I don’t usually write blog posts about my local seminar talks anymore, but I think this is more than worthy of an exception! For instance, I think this could serve as a great visiual example of branches and mild singularities in complex analysis. So, let’s remember the problem! We want to count the number of rooted ordered ternary trees with $n$ nodes. Call this number $t_n$. We note that every such tree is either a root node a root with one child a root with two children a root with three children where each child is recursively a rooted ordered ternary tree. If we define $T(z) = \sum_n t_n z^n$ to be the (ordinary) generating function for the $t_n$ we see from this recurrence relation that it must satisfy the functional equation That is, if $P(z,w) = -w + z + zw + zw^2 + zw^3$ then $P(z,T(z)) = 0$. If we draw (the real locus of) $P$ it looks like and the implicit function theorem says that we can find functions $f(z)$ so that $P(z,f(z)) = 0$ through any starting point $P(z_0,f_0)$ on the curve for as long as $\frac{\partial P}{\partial w} \neq 0$. In particular, we know that our $T(0) = t_0 = 0$ since there are no trees with zero vertices, so that our $T(z)$ takes $z$ to the unique part of this curve passing through the origin, for as long as this is defined. Here we’ll plot our curve $P$ in blue, and the implicit function $T(z)$ in orange. Note we have to stop at $z \approx 0.27695$ since here $\frac{\partial P}{\partial w} = 0$ so that the slope is infinite and we can’t continue. Said another way, we bend backwards and if we tried to continue we would fail the vertical line test. But since we have to stop here, we see that $0.27695$ is the radius of convergence for $T$, and is the dominant singularity! Next, can we find a good approximation for $T$ near this singularity? In the main post we used puiseux series for this, but it’s instructive to do it by hand! Note that $\frac{\partial P}{\partial z} \neq 0$ at $(0.27695, 0.65730)$ so there’s nothing stopping us from approximating $z$ as a function of $w$ at this point (then inverting it). Indeed, we can solve for $z = \frac{w}{1+w+w^2+w^3}$ and then just taylor expand this at our point of interest: Of course, we chose this point because $\frac{\mathrm{d}z}{\mathrm{d}w} = \frac{- \frac{\partial P}{\partial w}}{\frac{\partial P}{\partial z}}$ is $0$ here. So we know this $2.97 \times 10^{-8}$ is a rounding error and our leading order expansion is Here’s a graph zoomed into near the singularity. The actual graph of $P$ is shown in blue, and our approximating parabola is shown in orange: But of course if $z - 0.27695 \approx -.34680 (w - 0.6573)^2$ then we can solve for and if we want this to agree with our $w = T(z)$ branch through the origin we obviously have to choose the negative square root (since we want the lower half of this sideways parabola1). Here we draw our $T(z)$ in blue, and we draw the approximation $0.6573 - 0.8936 \sqrt{1 - \frac{z}{0.27695}}$ in orange so you can see how well they line up! But now from here we can run exactly the same argument as in the previous post! We compute $t_n = \frac{1}{2\pi i} \oint \frac{T}{z^{n+1}} \ \mathrm{d}z$, along a keyhole contour around the singular point $z=0.27695$ with a branch cut along the real axis. The brunt of this integral comes from the cutout near the singular point, where $T$ is well approximated by $0.6573 - 0.8936 \sqrt{1 - \frac{z}{0.27695}}$ so that Again, for more details about exactly what this keyhole contour is and how you estimate this integral along it, see the main post. Let’s go ahead and call it here! My actual talk was slightly longer than this, since I also sketched a proof of Dirichlet’s Theorem following Varilly’s notes on the subject, but there’s no sense in me writing that up since those notes are already so good! Plus it’s getting late and I want to go to bed, haha. As always, here’s a copy of my title and abstract. Unfortunately I don’t have any slides or recordings today, but I’m giving another talk at WiSCons in Madison next week and I should have slides for that. I’m also hoping to finish a sister blog post for that talk where I do more example computations in more detail than I could possibly do in a 20 minute talk. Lots of writing to do this week! Take care all, stay safe, and I can’t wait to talk soon ^_^ Counting is Hard. Complex Analysis is Easy. Don’t you miss being a kid, when your mom would ask you to count how many of your alphabet fridge magnets were both red and vowels? When you saw the answer was “2”, you felt such accomplishment…. But counting has only gotten harder since then, and now if you want to count how many objects satisfy some properties (say, being both red and vowels) it can be borderline impossible! In this talk we’ll show how you can solve counting problems by doing complex analysis instead. First we’ll count the number of trees of a certain shape, then (given time) we’ll count how many prime numbers are of a (different) certain shape. In the main post we used puiseux series for this, and we had to essentially guess which branch was correct. Now we see how the geometry of the situation tells us that we have to choose the negative branch of the square root! After all, this is the one that locally agrees with the rest of the graph of $T$! ↩

2 days ago 3 votes
Ozempic and Muscle Mass

Are GLP-1 drugs causing excess muscle loss compared to non-pharmacological weight loss?

3 days ago 5 votes
The evolution of psychiatry

How to separate order from disorder

3 days ago 4 votes