The most recent data from the National Survey of Family Growth (NSFG) provides a first look at people born in the 2000s as young adults and an updated view of people born in the 1990s at the peak of their child-bearing years. Compared to previous generations at the same ages, these cohorts have fewer children, and they are less likely to say they intend to have children. Unless their plans change, trends toward lower fertility are likely to continue for... Read More Read More The post Young Adults Want Fewer Children appeared first on Probably Overthinking It.

This is the last in a series of excerpts from Elements of Data Science, now available from Lulu.com and online booksellers. This article is based on the Recidivism Case Study, which is about algorithmic fairness. The goal of the case study is to explain the statistical arguments presented in two articles from 2016: Both are about COMPAS, a statistical tool used in the justice system to assign defendants a “risk score” that is intended to reflect the risk that they... Read More Read More The post Algorithmic Fairness appeared first on Probably Overthinking It.

This is the fifth in a series of excerpts from Elements of Data Science, now available from Lulu.com and online booksellers. It’s based on Chapter 16, which is part of the political alignment case study. You can read the complete example here, or run the Jupyter notebook on Colab. Because this is a teaching example, it builds incrementally. If you just want to see the results, scroll to the end! Chapter 16 is a template for exploring relationships between political... Read More Read More The post Confidence In the Press appeared first on Probably Overthinking It.

This is the fourth in a series of excerpts from Elements of Data Science, now available from Lulu.com and online booksellers. It’s from Chapter 15, which is part of the political alignment case study. You can read the complete chapter here, or run the Jupyter notebook on Colab. In the previous chapter, we used data from the General Social Survey (GSS) to plot changes in political alignment over time. In this notebook, we’ll explore the relationship between political alignment and... Read More Read More The post Political Alignment and Outlook appeared first on Probably Overthinking It.