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I’ve written before about changes in marriage patterns in the U.S., and it’s one of the examples in Chapter 13 of the new third edition of Think Stats. My analysis uses data from the National Survey of Family Growth (NSFG). Today they released the most recent data, from surveys conducted in 2022 and 2023. So here are the results, updated with the newest data: The patterns are consistent with what we’ve see in previous iterations — each successive cohort marries... Read More Read More The post Young Americans are Marrying Later or Never appeared first on Probably Overthinking It.
9 months ago

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Announcing Think Linear Algebra

I’ve been thinking about Think Linear Algebra for more than a decade, and recently I started working on it in earnest. If you want to get a sense of it, I’ve posted a draft chapter as a Jupyter notebook. In one way, I am glad I waited — I think it will be better, faster [to write], and stronger [?] because of AI tools. To be clear, I am writing this book, not AI. But I’m finding ChatGPT helpful for... Read More Read More The post Announcing Think Linear Algebra appeared first on Probably Overthinking It.

3 months ago 43 votes
My very busy week

I’m not sure who scheduled ODSC and PyConUS during the same week, but I am unhappy with their decisions. Last Tuesday I presented a talk and co-presented a workshop at ODSC, and on Thursday I presented a tutorial at PyCon. If you would like to follow along with my very busy week, here are the resources: Practical Bayesian Modeling with PyMC Co-presented with Alex Fengler for ODSC East 2025 In this tutorial, we explore Bayesian regression using PyMC – the... Read More Read More The post My very busy week appeared first on Probably Overthinking It.

3 months ago 39 votes
Announcing Think Stats 3e

The third edition of Think Stats is on its way to the printer! You can preorder now from Bookshop.org and Amazon (those are affiliate links), or if you can’t wait to get a paper copy, you can read the free, online version here. Here’s the new cover, still featuring a suspicious-looking archerfish. If you are not familiar with the previous editions, Think Stats is an introduction to practical methods for exploring and visualizing data, discovering relationships and trends, and communicating... Read More Read More The post Announcing Think Stats 3e appeared first on Probably Overthinking It.

5 months ago 43 votes
Young Adults Want Fewer Children

The most recent data from the National Survey of Family Growth (NSFG) provides a first look at people born in the 2000s as young adults and an updated view of people born in the 1990s at the peak of their child-bearing years. Compared to previous generations at the same ages, these cohorts have fewer children, and they are less likely to say they intend to have children. Unless their plans change, trends toward lower fertility are likely to continue for... Read More Read More The post Young Adults Want Fewer Children appeared first on Probably Overthinking It.

5 months ago 42 votes
Algorithmic Fairness

This is the last in a series of excerpts from Elements of Data Science, now available from Lulu.com and online booksellers. This article is based on the Recidivism Case Study, which is about algorithmic fairness. The goal of the case study is to explain the statistical arguments presented in two articles from 2016: Both are about COMPAS, a statistical tool used in the justice system to assign defendants a “risk score” that is intended to reflect the risk that they... Read More Read More The post Algorithmic Fairness appeared first on Probably Overthinking It.

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