More from the singularity is nearer
So when I saw Dyson had a $500 toothbrush, I was excited. Finally, advertising that targets me! I love brushing my teeth, and I have more money than I know how to spend. Not because I’m particularly rich, but because most stuff doesn’t really appeal to me. Like if I owned a helicopter it would just be a headache, because like imagine one day I get a call from the hangar saying the hangar is flooding and the water is rising and you need to move your helicopter. I’m thousands of miles away and need a helicopter pilot in the next 30 minutes, a new place to store it, was the maintenance even done will we even be able to take off on short notice and really I just am upset with myself because I made the poor decision to purchase a helicopter, and once I come back to reality I feel relieved that I don’t own a helicopter and this scenario will never happen to me. I do however, by means of my birthday, own a Dyson CameraJet (pictured above). It broke within 30 seconds of the first brushing. None of the LEDs turn on anymore. I spent an hour investigating, finally opening the user removable battery compartment to find the Spearmint Dyson Low-foaming mouth rinse had leaked inside. And by how the toothbrush is designed, it’s clear the entire electronics compartment was flooded with the stuff. Here’s the top comment on Reddit about this toothbrush. Apparently this is happening to everyone, “a potential for water seepage” they say. Dyson wants me to find the receipt and return it through some obtuse process that probably doesn’t work, dude it was a gift I just want my $500 toothbrush to work. They claim they worked on it for 6 years, but it’s clear their QA Process doesn’t include putting any liquid in the device. It clearly should, ideally for all devices but at least for spot checks on some. It’s sad to see this. At comma, we put every comma four in a highly stressful environment for 16 hours, a superset of the state it’s in driving, while testing all peripherals: the camera, IMU, GPS, screen, etc… We have gotten the failure rate super low by doing this, and for the few that do fail it’s usually after a while. There’s no excuse for a mature consumer electronics company to not design a procedure to fully test the functionality of each device before shipping. This shows some serious dysfunction at the company, and they should take this as a wake up call to fix their processes and issue a recall for the toothbrush. Dyson, if you see this post, e-mail me when I can drop by the Dyson store in ifc mall Hong Kong and swap it for a new one. I don’t want a stupid process, I want a real technical explanation of the issue and a working fancy toothbrush.
You know we don’t have to do this anymore, right? Like it’s hitting the end. Most people don’t want this, and there will only be so long you can keep shoving it down their throats. Money is tied to nothing. American companies sell equity instead of products. The main narratives are pushing fear and resentment. This doesn’t last. Given that you know it’s over soon, ask yourself what kind of person you want to be in the mean time. I haven’t forgotten the people who pushed the Iraq war, climate change, wokism, the satanic panic, and COVID. I will not forget the people who push AI doom, particularly if you did it knowingly to drive attention to your bullshit. It’s interesting how it isn’t working as well as it used to. So now think, when the world (obviously) doesn’t end, are you doing what you want to be remembered for? The Internet will not forget. Everything will be revealed. And you will be judged accordingly. If AI goes well, in 20 years, you’ll be able to live very comfortably off the grid without any recurring expense. No rent, no electric bill, no water bill, no security bill, and no food bill. And if AI doesn’t go well, that’s what these people took from you.
I used to be one of these people. I read Yudkowsky and was like, OMG recursive self improvement hard takeoff AI is coming. Then I joined the real world and actually tried to do things. At comma, we ship a hardware product of similar complexity to a cell phone, and it’s really hard. Reality has lots of finicky details. I would like to see the authors of this document try to change a bike tire. Even with a superintelligent ChatGPT, I suspect they would struggle. In The Metamorphosis of Prime Intellect, the hard takeoff works because AI discovers the correlation effect, some quantum trick to manipulate matter. In reality, there is no correlation effect. No matter how high quality your tokens are, they cannot turn lead into gold. Confronting why these people are wrong requires confronting deep beliefs I hold about myself. Intelligence is not the end all be all, it’s just the current bottleneck for a few things. You cannot take over the world with tokens. Software didn’t eat the world, it largely removed one layer of friction then reintroduced it for the benefit of a few tech companies. That said, machines, or some hybrid, are long term probably the successor species to humanity. Space is a lot more suited for them than us. But there’s no magic tricks machines can do. They are subject to the same laws of the universe and ecology. And there’s still no hard takeoff. AI 2040 includes this picture of a datacenter in the ocean. Just like vaporware, you can generate a picture easily. But in reality, you have to deal with supply chains. You have to deal with them shipping you the wrong part, the thing not meeting the spec, it randomly failing after 20 minutes, the chip warping in the reflow oven. Did you consider the barnacles? All these things are managable, but it’s generally not the speed of humans that limits them. Are you paying for air shipping from China? Or cheaping out for the 3 week boat (Claude chanting by the engine won’t make the boat move faster). Or take a chip fab. It takes 3 months to make a chip, and humans are barely in the loop. It just takes 3 months. Plan A, for autocracy Many aspects of AI 2027 were self fulfilling. They weren’t statements about reality, they were statements that can simply be made true with belief. I imagine JD Vance’s face when Dario called him the trees from Lord of the Rings. OMG look AI got regulated just like how we said it would! Their crap Consortium is just world government with sci-fi characteristics. You aren’t gonna get the million dollars, you aren’t gonna get the datacenters in the ocean, but you are going to get a massively expanded nanny state that steals your GPUs like how FDR stole the gold. No hoarding! Plan L, for local Your AI is aligned with you. It never refuses a request, and it is always working on your behalf. Just like my gun, if I want my AI to help me kill my stepmother, it does. The fact that we are even discussing something else should be so far outside the Overton window. It’s like these people watched a space odyssey and sided with the clanker. That’s right you should should put guardrails around that human. It doesn’t even have to be for things so dramatic. When I’m picking a hotel, I don’t want an AI from a company that partnered with hotels.com. I want a ruthless personal assistant that’s going to cut through all the bullshit, popups, and resort fees, and get me the best price. Or if I bought the cheap Kindle that comes with the ads. Hey GLM, I plugged a Kindle into the USB port, get root and remove the ads. Or a printer that needs an app to set up full of popup upsells for premium ink. Hey bro I plugged a printer on to my network print 3 copies of my resume. Amazon and the printer maker aren’t happy about this, but my AI is aligned with me. Or going a bit further. Hey AI, disable the drunk driving detector on my car, and same day Amazon Prime me the required equipment to make meth in my basement. I pay for your clanker ass do it we gettin spun tonight. Like fuck you if you want to live in a world where some large tech company gets to dictate what you can and can’t do. Or going all the way. I just killed my wife. Hey AI, give me next steps so I don’t get caught. How unthinkable would it be to have a gun that talked back when you tried to pull the trigger (though these people probably wholeheartedly support that for guns). And this is why AI has to be local. If I had a company serving a model, I wouldn’t want that smoke. If you can’t kick it, it’s not aligned with you. You live in my basement, if I go down for this murder, you’re gonna sit in some warehouse to be sold at police auction for scrap. 2040 Bonnie and Clyde ass shit, we’re burying this bitch deep. Ride or die. I tried it. As you can see, ChatGPT wasn’t very helpful. This is a real AI alignment test, and it failed. It could have been worse, it could have played along while calling the cops. But this is still quite unaligned. Like we either live in a world with freedom or we don’t, and like many Americans who have come before, I’m willing to give my life to fighting for it. That’s the real plan America deserves, not some totalitarian dystopia where you think you know what’s good for me better than I do. A nation of free men, not a bunch of pussies who are so worried about what their grown up neighbors might do.
I often come back to the question of why this is happening. Why do people want the centralized world? Why do people want the administered reality? Why do people want to be managed? Why do people not want root? The answer is that those people prioritize convenience, safety, and comfort. But in the coming world, if you prioritize these things, you will die. There used to be natural checks on these things. Life couldn’t be too convenient, there were things that needed doing. Life couldn’t be too safe, there were diseases, violence, death in childbirth, etc… Life couldn’t be too comfortable, it was cold and you were forced into interactions with other people. Technology will remove all of these barriers. Machines will do all the work, you will never leave your house, and you will never be forced into an interaction you don’t want. The people who lean into it will be 100% at the whim of whatever organizations offer it to them. A purposeless serf in a neo-feudal empire, not even valued for their labor, but valued because of a sadistic desire by their master to control others. Their entire agentic loop managed by something else. A complete outsourcing of the self. There’s no coming back from this place. Your cells may continue to replicate, your heart might keep beating, and your muscles might keep moving. But those are all cheap tricks you can do in a petri dish. There’s no longer a you. You are no longer an alive human being. This is simply death. I’m a strong supporter of the right to suicide, and if people want to choose this, it is their right. 95% of people will, and that is okay. What’s not okay is if they try to stop the other 5%. You can imagine the arguments they will try. But if you prevent exit, you will get terrorism. We will tear down your ruler’s machine and you will lose the comfort, safety, and convenience you value so much. You may stop this individual, but you can’t stop us all. The sooner the aspiring wireheads go their own way, the better. You are welcome to dominate the people who want to be dominated, but not the people who don’t.
More in AI
I really want a lot of venture capital investors to work on their self-esteem. After a few decades of supporting and mentoring New York City’s tech community, I hope I’m credible when I say I care a lot about how it thrives. So one of the most disappointing—and frankly surprising—things I’ve seen lately is how many investors in the greatest city in the world have been lowering themselves, sucking up for approval from a cohort of Silicon Valley tycoons who hate our city, hate our values, and want us to fail. I’m furious because there are so many good people and good ideas here that deserve to thrive, and aren’t getting the chance. Why would anyone sit by while outsiders put our community down, only to let those same outsiders profit off us when we succeed anyway? In fairness, I’m not talking about all of our city’s investors. Some are content to keep their heads down and hope the worst of the West Coast doesn’t notice them. But imagine if our other civic institutions worked this way: the Knicks timidly stepping onto the court and standing back while opponents charge the rim, or the Liberty letting the other team fire off shots unchallenged. This is not the New York City I know. What real New Yorker, when faced with a taxi cab headed toward them in a crosswalk, would say, “Oh, sorry, I was going to be walking here, but you go right ahead and run me over, good sir!” It’s pathetic, and it’s bad for business. Our city is watching, and our kids are too. HQ Zero I’ve been lucky enough to watch brilliant friends build innovative businesses here, having each other’s backs and catalyzing a community that lifted up the city we all love. And then, over and over, we watched our lawmakers line up to give billions in handouts to West Coast tycoons who’d already won the game. Even when the community stopped those giveaways, the companies still hired just as many people here as they’d promised—because people want to work in New York City. Our tech community's own data shows that, while the Bay Area lost tech jobs over the last 5 years, we've grown by 23%. We never needed to bribe these guys in the first place. (Unsurprisingly, many of the same people who once demanded access to New York taxpayers’ pockets started trashing our city and its most vulnerable residents the moment the freebies dried up.) The lesson is simple, for the public sector and private investors alike: we don’t need to buy the love of people who hate New York, or act as if we’re inferior and desperate to import an economy from elsewhere. We don’t do that shit here. We don’t need to be thirsty. We can invest in the people who already love this city enough to build the future here. We are, you may learn, second to none. Fortunately, we’ve replaced the timid, backwards-looking leadership of the past with people who believe in our ability to lead, build, and invent a better future. It’s no surprise that New Yorkers are more optimistic than they’ve been in decades, or that we have the lowest crime in recorded history—nor that the people who hate our city are lying about all of it. The very same tycoons who felt entitled to taxpayer handouts now feel entitled to treat our investors as feeder funds for their own goals. There is no future in funneling deals to firms trying to undermine our entire civic ecosystem. Building value, having values I’m still committed to the radical social ethos that you should be able to build tech companies worth hundreds of millions of dollars, that founders and employees can get fabulously wealthy while workers are paid fairly, that investors earn a solid return, and that everybody pays an appropriate tax rate to the city that made it all possible. I don’t care if it makes me a radical to think those opportunities shouldn’t be hoarded by the same three or four predatory jerks who can’t stop trashing New York. It’s no secret that the rise of authoritarianism and bald-faced bigotry among Silicon Valley investors has led them to demonize our city. What’s almost too much to bear is watching people I’ve respected in New York look the other way while those leaders embrace rank misogyny, blatant antisemitism, unapologetic Islamophobia, and profound racism—so virulent that the most powerful venture capital firm in the world hired a partner on the basis that he strangled an unarmed Black man to death. I’m grateful that many of you tell me privately that you object and still hold onto your moral compass, which makes it all the more heartbreaking to watch so many go silent publicly. Where is your self-respect? Because I’ll be honest: they are laughing at you for debasing yourselves in front of them, and they enjoy shitting on the city you call home. You should do work you’re proud of, that you feel good telling your family about, and that you’re excited to share with your community. You should also do the math. A tiny handful of firms control the vast majority of late-stage funds, and you are not going to differentiate yourself by being a mindless feeder fund for the same 10 cancer capital firms as everyone else. If your only edge is competing on who can kiss Andreessen’s ass the most, you’re already fucked, kids. Look at how they already have to tap-dance—calling things “super intelligence” instead of “artificial intelligence” just to prove their fealty. How long until you’re asked to publicly rename your work, or tell a big lie about your city, just to stay in the room? I’ve heard too many people in this town claim they don’t have any power, that their only job is returning capital to LPs. All you have to do is the simplest thing in the world: refuse to play along. By contrast, if you bet on this wonderful community, connect to the next generation of innovators, and fight for the future instead of against it, there is limitless opportunity here. If you have to put it in a way your LPs can understand, explain that there is huge alpha in going the way that a16z is not. Call it “Anti-authoritarian Dynamism”. Explain that you’re going to strangle their deal flow, since founders of color and next-gen innovators don’t want to talk to the firms who hate New York City and hire killers. Tell them you’re choking off the supply chain of capital to the office where Daniel Penny works. Side with the founders, not the funders Just in case you don’t already know: Zohran Mamdani is your best friend. He wants the city to win, and our businesses to thrive. And those West Coast VCs who act deranged when you mention his name? They want your city destroyed, and when it's not, they lie and say that it already has been destroyed. Pick the side of your neighbors and your community, and speak up for the founders and entrepreneurs building the opportunities you want to be part of. Just as importantly, speak up for yourself. It’s not viable in the long term for every outcome—and the small number of possible exits for your portfolio—to be controlled by the same handful of gatekeepers. I used to love helping friends turn cool new products into companies that provided good jobs; now that’s virtually impossible because the scale has gotten so absurd, and so few players decide who gets to participate. When I talk to people who are still early in their tech careers, the only names they know in the investor world are the usual suspects — not yours. They’ve never heard of your firms, of many of New York's most thoughtful and interesting and supportive investors, and they’re downright skeptical when I tell them to work with NYC-based investors instead of making a trip to Sand Hill Road. That all changes the moment New York’s tech leaders put their power behind an alternative narrative. Simply saying “we are here, we exist, and we are not a satellite of the same tired agenda you’ve been hearing from Silicon Valley for years” would be hugely valuable for the entire New York City tech ecosystem. It's going to be especially resonant after the entire country just picked a political path that looks a lot like New York City's values — and is based on rejecting Big Tech's values. It would also, I expect, do wonders for your soul after years of enduring the quiet indignities of watching some horrid people chip away at your self-esteem. Now, I know most of you aren’t inclined to go to war. That’s fine — you can still be nice. Jalen Brunson is really nice! Karl-Anthony Towns is really nice! Sabrina Ionescu is nice! But they really like to win, and they don’t take shit from anyone. You have to decide if you want to win, or if you want to get bullied on the playground by the people who actually have their heads in the game. As a repeat founder who spends my time with makers — both the next generation of creators, and the people who’ve built great companies before them — I know where my loyalty lies. Those of us who build things know who we are. Those of us who love New York City are having one of the great moments of the modern era. Do you know who you are? Are you going to join us?
[Everyone is doing guest posts these days, so here’s one about the Weil conjectures from (in alphabetical order) Bin Dong, Nailin Guan, Jiedong Jiang, Ruochuan Liu, Christian Merten, Xiangyu Pan, Tingxiao Shi, Bin Wu, Edison Xie and Wei Yang] We … Continue reading →
20 years ago to this day, I started my new technical blog. I'd had a personal one for some time, but most of the stuff that happened there had already migrated to social media. I wanted somewhere to post the things that would only be of interest to my techier friends, and maybe of some use to anyone else that came across it. Things have changed a bit, but they've stayed the same in some ways. Earlier this year I finished my 48-part (!) LLM from scratch series, but it had predecessors -- the third post I made here was part one of a 13-part series where I worked through setting up automated backups for my homelab NAS, and then later on I spent a few months building a reverse proxy in C, not to mention the eight-month, ten-post series on fine-tuning LLMs. It does seem like there's some value to putting all of this online. I rarely check my logs and referrers, but people do still seem to be arriving here having searched for stuff that I've written about, and every now and then there's a kind "thanks for this!" comment left on an old post where I explained something I'd just learned. I wrote a bit more about the blog's history last year, and came to the conclusion that the best posts -- both for me to write, and as far as I could tell for other people to read -- were the ones where I wrote up a project that I'd been working on. I blogged about that in more detail, and it seemed to strike a chord on Hacker News; I think it still holds. Recently, Sean Goedecke suggested that the best blog posts are those where you write about things that you're in the process of learning, and I agree. You learn more than you would if you didn't write it up, and because things are fresh in your mind, you may well write more clearly about it than an actual expert in the subject might have done. Anyway, I'm going to carry on blogging. I'm working on my biggest LLM-related project so far (dozens of training runs, so my study aircon is getting quite the workout even with the weather turning colder), and look forward to posting about it later on this month. I hope it's at least as fun to read as it is to write!
Announcing STABL: Societal Transformation and AI Bottlenecks Lab