Full Width [alt+shift+f] FOCUS MODE Shortcuts [alt+shift+k]
Sign Up [alt+shift+s] Log In [alt+shift+l]
Top Categories > finance
#all #programming #history #technology #startups #life #science #literature #creative #architecture #design #travel #finance #comics #AI #indiehacker #cartography Muted Categories [alt+←][alt+→]
Calculated Risk
1st Look at Local Housing Markets in February Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: 1st Look at Local Housing Markets in...
5 months ago
28
5 months ago
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: 1st Look at Local Housing Markets in February A brief excerpt: NOTE: The tables for active listings, new listings and closed sales all include a comparison to February 2019 for each local market (some 2019 data is not...
The Diff
The CoreWeave Triangle Plus! Gimmicks; Correlations; Continuous Search; Re-Emerging Markets; Tax Incidence
5 months ago
Calculated Risk
Trade Deficit increased to $131.4 Billion in January The Census Bureau and the Bureau of Economic Analysis reported: The U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S....
5 months ago
28
5 months ago
The Census Bureau and the Bureau of Economic Analysis reported: The U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis announced today that the goods and services deficit was $131.4 billion in January, up $33.3 billion from $98.1 billion in December, revised. ...
Calculated Risk
Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Decrease to 221,000 The DOL reported: emphasis added The following graph shows the 4-week moving average of weekly...
5 months ago
29
5 months ago
The DOL reported: emphasis added The following graph shows the 4-week moving average of weekly claims since 1971. Click on graph for larger image. The dashed line on the graph is the current 4-week average. The four-week average of weekly unemployment claims increased to...
Calculated Risk
Thursday: Unemployment Claims, Trade Deficit Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. initial weekly...
5 months ago
28
5 months ago
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for 234 initial claims down from 242 thousand last week. U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services for January...
Calculated Risk
CoreLogic: Home Prices Increased 3.3% Year-over-year in January Notes: This CoreLogic House Price Index report is for January. The recent Case-Shiller index...
5 months ago
25
5 months ago
Notes: This CoreLogic House Price Index report is for January. The recent Case-Shiller index release was for December. The CoreLogic HPI is a three-month weighted average and is not seasonally adjusted (NSA). CoreLogic: Home Price Growth Largely Flat in January U.S. home price...
Musings on Markets
Data Update 9 for 2025: Dividends and Buybacks - Inertia and Me-tooism! In my ninth (and last) data post for 2025, I look at cash returned by businesses across the world,...
5 months ago
48
5 months ago
In my ninth (and last) data post for 2025, I look at cash returned by businesses across the world, looking at both the magnitude and the form of that return. I start with a framework for thinking about how much cash a business can return to its owners, and then argue that, in the...
Calculated Risk
Fed's Beige Book: "Overall economic activity rose slightly" Fed's Beige Book Overall economic activity rose slightly since mid-January. Six Districts reported...
5 months ago
24
5 months ago
Fed's Beige Book Overall economic activity rose slightly since mid-January. Six Districts reported no change, four reported modest or moderate growth, and two noted slight contractions. Consumer spending was lower on balance, with reports of solid demand for essential goods mixed...
oftwominds-Charles...
The Stoicism of the Caregiver These are difficult realities without Hollywood cliche answers. Caregivers and the costs of...
5 months ago
41
5 months ago
These are difficult realities without Hollywood cliche answers. Caregivers and the costs of caregiving don't get much attention. They're not part of the news flow, and the day-to-day grind of caregiving doesn't lend itself to the self-promotional zeitgeist of social media....
Bits about Money
Two Americas, one bank branch, and $50,000 cash Ever wondered what happens if you try to take $50,000 in cash out of a bank? Answer: a year of...
5 months ago
67
5 months ago
Ever wondered what happens if you try to take $50,000 in cash out of a bank? Answer: a year of investigative journalism.
Calculated Risk
ICE Mortgage Monitor: Property Insurance Costs Rose at a Record Rate in 2024 Today, in the Real Estate Newsletter: ICE Mortgage Monitor: Property Insurance Costs Rose at a...
5 months ago
30
5 months ago
Today, in the Real Estate Newsletter: ICE Mortgage Monitor: Property Insurance Costs Rose at a Record Rate in 2024 Brief excerpt: Property Insurance Premiums Increased Sharply in 2024 • The average annual property insurance premium among mortgaged single-family homes rose by a...
Calculated Risk
ISM® Services Index Increased to 53.5% in February (Posted with permission). The ISM® Services index was at 53.5%, up from 52.8% last month. The...
5 months ago
23
5 months ago
(Posted with permission). The ISM® Services index was at 53.5%, up from 52.8% last month. The employment index increased to 53.9%, from 52.3%. Note: Above 50 indicates expansion, below 50 in contraction. Services PMI® at 53.5% February 2025 Services ISM® Report On...
Calculated Risk
ADP: Private Employment Increased 77,000 in February From ADP: ADP National Employment Report: Private Sector Employment Increased by 77,000 Jobs in...
5 months ago
26
5 months ago
From ADP: ADP National Employment Report: Private Sector Employment Increased by 77,000 Jobs in February; Annual Pay was Up 4.7% “Policy uncertainty and a slowdown in consumer spending might have led to layoffs or a slowdown in hiring last month,” said Nela Richardson, chief...
Calculated Risk
MBA: Mortgage Applications Increase in Latest MBA Weekly Survey From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Increase in Latest MBA Weekly Survey Mortgage applications...
5 months ago
30
5 months ago
From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Increase in Latest MBA Weekly Survey Mortgage applications increased 20.4 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending February 28,...
Calculated Risk
Wednesday: ADP Employment, ISM Services, Beige Book Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. mortgage...
5 months ago
26
5 months ago
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. mortgage purchase applications index. ADP Employment Report for February. This report is for private payrolls only (no government). The consensus is for 140,000 payroll jobs added in February,...
Calculated Risk
Update: Lumber Prices Up 7% YoY This is something to watch again. Here is another monthly update on lumber prices. SPECIAL NOTE: The...
5 months ago
27
5 months ago
This is something to watch again. Here is another monthly update on lumber prices. SPECIAL NOTE: The CME group discontinued the Random Length Lumber Futures contract on May 16, 2023.  I switched to a physically-delivered Lumber Futures contract that was started in August 2022. ...
Calculated Risk
Heavy Truck Sales Decreased 9% YoY in February This graph shows heavy truck sales since 1967 using data from the BEA. The dashed line is the...
5 months ago
29
5 months ago
This graph shows heavy truck sales since 1967 using data from the BEA. The dashed line is the February 2025 seasonally adjusted annual sales rate (SAAR) of 460 thousand. Click on graph for larger image. Heavy truck sales declined sharply at the beginning of the pandemic, falling...
Mazdak
Claude vs. ChatGPT: A Comprehensive Comparison In today’s rapidly evolving AI landscape, two names stand out in the realm of conversational...
5 months ago
52
5 months ago
In today’s rapidly evolving AI landscape, two names stand out in the realm of conversational assistants—Anthropic’s Claude and OpenAI’s ChatGPT. Although both are built on large language models, they diverge sharply in design philosophy, technical implementation, safety...
The Diff
PE: Cycles and One-Off Events Plus! Streaming and Marketplaces; Automating Applications; Edge AI; Tariff Day; The AI Buildout
5 months ago
Calculated Risk
Fannie and Freddie: Single Family Serious Delinquency Rates Increased in January; Fannie Mae... Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Fannie and Freddie: Single Family Serious...
5 months ago
30
5 months ago
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Fannie and Freddie: Single Family Serious Delinquency Rates Increased in January Freddie Mac reported that the Single-Family serious delinquency rate in January was 0.61%, up from 0.59% December. Freddie's rate is up...
Calculated Risk
Lawler: Federal Reserve Earnings Still Running Negative; No Remittances to Treasury for a While From housing economist Tom Lawler: Federal Reserve Earnings Still Running Negative; No Remittances...
5 months ago
29
5 months ago
From housing economist Tom Lawler: Federal Reserve Earnings Still Running Negative; No Remittances to Treasury for a While As the table shows, Federal Reserve net income was substantially negative in 2023 and 2024, with a combined net loss in these two years of almost $200...
Calculated Risk
Tuesday: Tariffs! From Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily: Mortgage Rates Roughly Unchanged Over The...
5 months ago
26
5 months ago
From Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily: Mortgage Rates Roughly Unchanged Over The Weekend Mortgage rates faced a very small threat of a very small increase this morning. The underlying bond market was in weaker territory to start the day and that typically means mortgage...
Calculated Risk
Vehicles Sales Increase to 16.00 million SAAR in February Wards Auto released their estimate of light vehicle sales for January: Despite Affordability...
5 months ago
31
5 months ago
Wards Auto released their estimate of light vehicle sales for January: Despite Affordability Headwind, U.S. Light-Vehicle Sales Rise 3.4% in February (pay site). Continuing January’s trend, market strength was at the two far ends of the affordability scale, as entry-price cars...
Calculated Risk
A Comment on GDPNow On Friday, I noted: Q1 GDP Tracking: Wide Range, GDPNow Goes Negative GDPNow from the Atlanta Fed...
5 months ago
28
5 months ago
On Friday, I noted: Q1 GDP Tracking: Wide Range, GDPNow Goes Negative GDPNow from the Atlanta Fed went strongly negative in the most recent reading: "The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2025 is -1.5 percent on...
oftwominds-Charles...
If We Set Aside Ideology, Is There Anything We Can Agree On? Just the experiment of setting aside ideological certainties for a moment would be instructive. ...
5 months ago
39
5 months ago
Just the experiment of setting aside ideological certainties for a moment would be instructive. Humans are hard-wired to prefer simplicity over complexity, and this is the foundation of ideology, which like mythology takes a complex world and radically simplifies it to an...
Calculated Risk
Final Look at Local Housing Markets in January and a Look Ahead to February Sales Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Final Look at Local Housing Markets in January...
5 months ago
30
5 months ago
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Final Look at Local Housing Markets in January and a Look Ahead to February Sales A brief excerpt: After the National Association of Realtors® (NAR) releases the monthly existing home sales report, I pick up additional local...
The Rational Walk
Warren Buffett on Berkshire’s Valuation Warren Buffett has typically avoided commenting on Berkshire's stock price, but he has provided some...
5 months ago
56
5 months ago
Warren Buffett has typically avoided commenting on Berkshire's stock price, but he has provided some clues that are worth considering.
Calculated Risk
Construction Spending Decreased 0.2% in January From the Census Bureau reported that overall construction spending decreased: Construction spending...
5 months ago
29
5 months ago
From the Census Bureau reported that overall construction spending decreased: Construction spending during January 2025 was estimated at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $2,192.5 billion, 0.2 percent below the revised December estimate of $2,196.0 billion. The January figure...
The Diff
AI's Impact on the Written Word is Vastly Overstated Plus! VC IPOs; Sovereign Wealth Funds; The Return of Structured Products; LLM Moderation; Risk...
5 months ago
34
5 months ago
Plus! VC IPOs; Sovereign Wealth Funds; The Return of Structured Products; LLM Moderation; Risk Management; Diff Jobs
Calculated Risk
ISM® Manufacturing index Decreased to 50.3% in February (Posted with permission). The ISM manufacturing index indicated expansion. The PMI® was at 50.3%...
5 months ago
28
5 months ago
(Posted with permission). The ISM manufacturing index indicated expansion. The PMI® was at 50.3% in February, down from 50.9% in January. The employment index was at 47.6%, down from 50.3% the previous month, and the new orders index was at 48.6%, down from...
Calculated Risk
Housing March 3rd Weekly Update: Inventory down 0.1% Week-over-week, Up 28.3% Year-over-year Altos reports that active single-family inventory was down 0.1% week-over-week. Inventory is now...
5 months ago
28
5 months ago
Altos reports that active single-family inventory was down 0.1% week-over-week. Inventory is now up 2.4% from the seasonal bottom seven weeks ago in January and should start increasing seasonally in March. The first graph shows the seasonal pattern for active single-family...
Commoncog
Activist Investing in Asian Conglomerates How do Asian conglomerates play in capital markets, given pliable governments and weak regulators?...
5 months ago
44
5 months ago
How do Asian conglomerates play in capital markets, given pliable governments and weak regulators? We examine the career of one activist investor, to see what that tells us about the Asian tycoons we’ve been studying.
Citation Needed
Issue 78 – President on brink of bailout for bitcoin Trump tries to breathe life back into the crypto markets’ “Trump pump” while federal regulatory...
5 months ago
40
5 months ago
Trump tries to breathe life back into the crypto markets’ “Trump pump” while federal regulatory agencies wash their hands of any crypto industry oversight
Calculated Risk
Monday: ISM Mfg, Construction Spending, Vehicle Sales Weekend: Schedule for Week of March 2, 2025 ISM Manufacturing Index for February. The consensus is...
5 months ago
34
5 months ago
Weekend: Schedule for Week of March 2, 2025 ISM Manufacturing Index for February. The consensus is for the ISM to be at 50.8, down from 50.9 in January.  Construction Spending for January. The consensus is for a 0.2% increase in construction spending. Light vehicle sales for...
Calculated Risk
Hotels: Occupancy Rate Decreased 2.7% Year-over-year From STR: U.S. hotel results for week ending 22 February The U.S. hotel industry reported mixed...
6 months ago
31
6 months ago
From STR: U.S. hotel results for week ending 22 February The U.S. hotel industry reported mixed year-over-year comparisons, according to CoStar’s latest data through 22 February. ... 16-22 February 2025 (percentage change from comparable week in 2024): Occupancy: 60.3%...
Calculated Risk
Real Estate Newsletter Articles this Week: New Home Sales Decrease to 657,000 Annual Rate in January At the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter this week: Click on graph for larger image. New Home...
6 months ago
27
6 months ago
At the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter this week: Click on graph for larger image. New Home Sales Decrease to 657,000 Annual Rate in January Case-Shiller: National House Price Index Up 3.9% year-over-year in December Inflation Adjusted House Prices 1.0% Below 2022...
The Diff
Longreads + Open Thread Hackers, Safety, EBITDA, More Hackers, Feudalism, Randomness, CEOs
6 months ago
Calculated Risk
Schedule for Week of March 2, 2025 The key report scheduled for this week is the February employment report. ----- Monday, March 3rd...
6 months ago
33
6 months ago
The key report scheduled for this week is the February employment report. ----- Monday, March 3rd ----- 10:00 AM: ISM Manufacturing Index for February. The consensus is for the ISM to be at 50.8, down from 50.9 in January.  Construction Spending for January. The consensus is for...
Calculated Risk
February 28th COVID Update: COVID Deaths Declining Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. For deaths, I'm...
6 months ago
35
6 months ago
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. For deaths, I'm currently using 4 weeks ago for "now", since the most recent three weeks will be revised significantly. Note: "Effective May 1, 2024, hospitals are no longer required to report...
Moneyness
What do you do with memecoins? Apparently you collect them, says the SEC I have no idea if memecoins like dogecoin and fartcoin should be legally defined as securities, and...
6 months ago
50
6 months ago
I have no idea if memecoins like dogecoin and fartcoin should be legally defined as securities, and thus come under the purview of securities regulators like the Securities Exchange Commission (SEC). Securities law is confusing. But what I do know is that the SEC's latest notion...
oftwominds-Charles...
Three Ways to Restore Housing Affordability The choice is simple: housing is either shelter for citizens, or it's just another interchangeable...
6 months ago
35
6 months ago
The choice is simple: housing is either shelter for citizens, or it's just another interchangeable speculative asset in the global financialization casino. It can't be both. We tend to think of housing becoming unaffordable as a matter of land prices, zoning and the cost of...
Calculated Risk
Q1 GDP Tracking: Wide Range, GDPNow Goes Negative From BofA: The second print of 4Q GDP came in at 2.3% q/q saar, unchanged from the advance print...
6 months ago
32
6 months ago
From BofA: The second print of 4Q GDP came in at 2.3% q/q saar, unchanged from the advance print and a tenth higher than our tracking estimate. Meanwhile, our 1Q GDP tracking is unchanged at 2.3% q/q saar since our last weekly publication. [Feb 28th] emphasis added From Goldman:...
Calculated Risk
Freddie Mac House Price Index Increased in January; Up 3.9% Year-over-year Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Freddie Mac House Price Index Increased in...
6 months ago
27
6 months ago
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Freddie Mac House Price Index Increased in January; Up 3.9% Year-over-year A brief excerpt: Freddie Mac reported that its “National” Home Price Index (FMHPI) increased 0.41% month-over-month on a seasonally adjusted (SA)...
The Diff
Running an Oil Major in a Not-Post-Hydrocarbon-Any-Time-Soon World Plus! Corporate VC; Hacking AI Moderation; Product Parity; Crypto Regulation; GPU Demand
6 months ago
Calculated Risk
PCE Measure of Shelter Decreases to 4.5% YoY in January Here is a graph of the year-over-year change in shelter from the CPI report and housing from the PCE...
6 months ago
30
6 months ago
Here is a graph of the year-over-year change in shelter from the CPI report and housing from the PCE report this morning, both through January 2025. CPI Shelter was up 4.4% year-over-year in January, down from 4.6% in December, and down from the cycle peak of 8.2% in March...
Calculated Risk
Personal Income increased 0.9% in January; Spending Decreased 0.2% The BEA released the Personal Income and Outlays, January 2025 report for January: Personal income...
6 months ago
34
6 months ago
The BEA released the Personal Income and Outlays, January 2025 report for January: Personal income increased $221.9 billion (0.9 percent at a monthly rate) in January, according to estimates released today by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. Disposable personal income...
Calculated Risk
Friday: Personal Income & Outlays Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. Personal Income...
6 months ago
27
6 months ago
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. Personal Income and Outlays for January. The consensus is for a 0.3% increase in personal income, and for a 0.2% increase in personal spending. And for the Core PCE price index to increase...
Mazdak
OpenAI Unveils GPT-4.5: Here’s Everything You Need to Know The AI race just got more interesting.
6 months ago
Calculated Risk
Realtor.com Reports Active Inventory Up 27.6% YoY What this means: On a weekly basis, Realtor.com reports the year-over-year change in active...
6 months ago
28
6 months ago
What this means: On a weekly basis, Realtor.com reports the year-over-year change in active inventory and new listings. On a monthly basis, they report total inventory. For February, Realtor.com reported inventory was up 27.5% YoY, but still down 22.9% compared to the 2017 to...
Calculated Risk
Inflation Adjusted House Prices 1.0% Below 2022 Peak; Price-to-rent index is 7.7% below 2022 peak Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Inflation Adjusted House Prices 1.0% Below...
6 months ago
27
6 months ago
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Inflation Adjusted House Prices 1.0% Below 2022 Peak It has been over 18 years since the housing bubble peak. In the December Case-Shiller house price index released this week, the seasonally adjusted National Index (SA), was...