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The Rational Walk
Buffett & Munger Unscripted A new book by Alex Morris distills key insights and wisdom from three decades of Berkshire Hathaway...
5 months ago
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5 months ago
A new book by Alex Morris distills key insights and wisdom from three decades of Berkshire Hathaway annual meetings.
Citation Needed
“Wait, not like that”: Free and open access in the age of generative AI The real threat isn’t AI using open knowledge — it’s AI companies killing the projects that make...
5 months ago
Calculated Risk
Q1 GDP Tracking: Wide Range From BofA: Our 1Q GDP tracking remains unchanged at 1.9% q/q saar and our 4Q GDP tracking is down...
5 months ago
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5 months ago
From BofA: Our 1Q GDP tracking remains unchanged at 1.9% q/q saar and our 4Q GDP tracking is down two tenths to 2.3% q/q saar since our last weekly publication. [Mar 14th] emphasis added From Goldman: We lowered our Q1 GDP tracking estimate by 0.3pp to +1.3% last week. [Mar...
The Diff
Deals and Hype Trades Plus! AI Models and Comparative Advantage; Proprietary Data; AI and Incentives; The Neoteny...
5 months ago
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5 months ago
Plus! AI Models and Comparative Advantage; Proprietary Data; AI and Incentives; The Neoteny Business; Substitution
Calculated Risk
Q4 Update: Delinquencies, Foreclosures and REO Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Q4 Update: Delinquencies, Foreclosures and...
5 months ago
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5 months ago
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Q4 Update: Delinquencies, Foreclosures and REO A brief excerpt: This entire housing cycle I’ve argued that we would NOT see a surge in foreclosures that would significantly impact house prices (as happened following the...
Commoncog
Speedrunning the Skill of Demand How to get better, faster at the skill of uncovering demand, which underpins the skill domains of...
5 months ago
40
5 months ago
How to get better, faster at the skill of uncovering demand, which underpins the skill domains of sales, marketing, and product.
Calculated Risk
Realtor.com Reports Active Inventory Up 27.8% YoY What this means: On a weekly basis, Realtor.com reports the year-over-year change in active...
5 months ago
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5 months ago
What this means: On a weekly basis, Realtor.com reports the year-over-year change in active inventory and new listings. On a monthly basis, they report total inventory. For February, Realtor.com reported inventory was up 27.5% YoY, but still down 22.9% compared to the 2017 to...
oftwominds-Charles...
Roaring 20s or Great Depression 2.0? The binary ahead is the result of a simple law of Nature: adapt or die. Will we revel in a New...
5 months ago
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5 months ago
The binary ahead is the result of a simple law of Nature: adapt or die. Will we revel in a New Roaring 20s of exhilarating expansion, or will we suffer a Great Depression 2.0? Gordon Long and I explore this binary in our latest podcast. Why is the next decade a binary of...
Calculated Risk
Hotels: Occupancy Rate Decreased 1.4% Year-over-year This will be something to watch. The Top 3 countries for tourist visits to the US in 2023...
5 months ago
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5 months ago
This will be something to watch. The Top 3 countries for tourist visits to the US in 2023 were: “We've already started the process of where that capacity is coming out.  A lot of it transborder, big drop in Canadian traffic to go into the U.S.”. This could impact hotel occupancy...
Calculated Risk
The "Home ATM" Mostly Closed in Q4 Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: The "Home ATM" Mostly Closed in Q4 A brief...
5 months ago
25
5 months ago
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: The "Home ATM" Mostly Closed in Q4 A brief excerpt: During the housing bubble, many homeowners borrowed heavily against their perceived home equity - jokingly calling it the “Home ATM” - and this contributed to the subsequent...
Calculated Risk
Fed's Flow of Funds: Household Net Worth Increased $0.2 Trillion in Q4 The Federal Reserve released the Q4 2024 Flow of Funds report today: Financial Accounts of the...
5 months ago
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5 months ago
The Federal Reserve released the Q4 2024 Flow of Funds report today: Financial Accounts of the United States. The net worth of households and nonprofits rose to $169.4 trillion during the fourth quarter of 2024. The value of directly and indirectly held corporate equities...
The Diff
Central Banks and the Guidance Paradox Plus! Crowded Trades; CoreWeave; The Bots; Accounting; Political Meme Stocks
5 months ago
Calculated Risk
CoreLogic: 1.1 million Homeowners with Negative Equity in Q4 2024 From CoreLogic: CoreLogic: Borrowers Gained Over $280B in Home Equity in 2024 Homeowner Equity...
5 months ago
33
5 months ago
From CoreLogic: CoreLogic: Borrowers Gained Over $280B in Home Equity in 2024 Homeowner Equity Report (HER) for the fourth quarter of 2024. Nationwide, borrower equity increased by $281.9 billion, or 1.7% year-over-year. The report shows that U.S. homeowners with mortgages (which...
Calculated Risk
Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Decrease to 220,000 The DOL reported: seasonally adjusted initial claims was 220,000, a decrease of 2,000 from the...
5 months ago
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5 months ago
The DOL reported: seasonally adjusted initial claims was 220,000, a decrease of 2,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 1,000 from 221,000 to 222,000. The 4-week moving average was 226,000, an increase of 1,500 from the previous...
Calculated Risk
Thursday: Unemployment Claims, PPI, Q4 Flow of Funds Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. initial weekly...
5 months ago
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5 months ago
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for 225 initial claims up from 221 thousand last week. Producer Price Index for February from the BLS. The consensus...
Calculated Risk
Part 2: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-March 2025 Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Part 2: Current State of the Housing Market;...
5 months ago
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5 months ago
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Part 2: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-March 2025 A brief excerpt: Earlier this week, in Part 1: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-March 2025 I reviewed home inventory, housing...
Calculated Risk
Cleveland Fed: Median CPI increased 0.3% and Trimmed-mean CPI increased 0.3% in February The Cleveland Fed released the median CPI and the trimmed-mean CPI. Click on graph for larger...
5 months ago
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5 months ago
The Cleveland Fed released the median CPI and the trimmed-mean CPI. Click on graph for larger image. On a year-over-year basis, the median CPI rose 3.5% (down from 3.6% YoY in January), the trimmed-mean CPI rose 3.1% (unchanged from 3.1%), and the CPI less food and energy rose...
Calculated Risk
YoY Measures of Inflation: Services, Goods and Shelter Here are a few measures of inflation: Click on graph for larger image. Services were up 4.1% YoY as...
5 months ago
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5 months ago
Here are a few measures of inflation: Click on graph for larger image. Services were up 4.1% YoY as of February 2025, down from 4.2% YoY in January. The second graph shows that goods prices started to increase year-over-year (YoY) in 2020 and accelerated in 2021 due to both...
Calculated Risk
BLS: CPI Increased 0.2% in February; Core CPI increased 0.2% From the BLS: The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.2 percent on a...
5 months ago
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5 months ago
From the BLS: The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.2 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis in February, after rising 0.5 percent in January, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index...
Calculated Risk
MBA: Mortgage Applications Increase in Latest MBA Weekly Survey From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Increase in Latest MBA Weekly Survey Mortgage applications...
5 months ago
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5 months ago
From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Increase in Latest MBA Weekly Survey Mortgage applications increased 11.2 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending March 7,...
Calculated Risk
Wednesday: CPI Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. mortgage...
5 months ago
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5 months ago
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. mortgage purchase applications index. Consumer Price Index for February from the BLS. The consensus is for a 0.3% increase in CPI, and a 0.3% increase in core CPI.  The consensus is for CPI to be...
Calculated Risk
Lawler: Some Observations on the Federal Reserve’s Balance Sheet Wind-Down and Reinvestment... From housing economist Tom Lawler: Click on table for larger image. Given the significant declines...
5 months ago
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5 months ago
From housing economist Tom Lawler: Click on table for larger image. Given the significant declines in Federal Reserve holdings of Treasuries and Agency MBS since early 2022, the uninformed (such as Treasury Secretary Bessent) might conclude that the Federal Reserve has been a big...
Calculated Risk
CPI Preview The Consumer Price Index for February is scheduled to be released tomorrow. The consensus is for a...
5 months ago
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5 months ago
The Consumer Price Index for February is scheduled to be released tomorrow. The consensus is for a 0.3% increase in CPI, and a 0.3% increase in core CPI.  The consensus is for CPI to be up 2.9% year-over-year (YoY), and core CPI to be up 3.2% YoY. We forecast a 0.29% increase...
Citation Needed
Crypto reserves: no public good, no principles The formerly anti-government bitcoin movement abandons its principles in favor of number-go-up,...
5 months ago
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5 months ago
The formerly anti-government bitcoin movement abandons its principles in favor of number-go-up, applauds federal plan to stockpile seized crypto with no clear benefit to national interest
Calculated Risk
2nd Look at Local Housing Markets in February Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: 2nd Look at Local Housing Markets in...
5 months ago
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5 months ago
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: 2nd Look at Local Housing Markets in February A brief excerpt: NOTE: The tables for active listings, new listings and closed sales all include a comparison to February 2019 for each local market (some 2019 data is not...
The Diff
Will There Ever be a Company-Killing Hack? Plus! Divided Attention; Demand; Buying Low?; The Stuff Tax; Mispriced Derivatives
5 months ago
Calculated Risk
BLS: Job Openings Increased to 7.7 million in January From the BLS: Job Openings and Labor Turnover Summary The number of job openings was little changed...
5 months ago
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5 months ago
From the BLS: Job Openings and Labor Turnover Summary The number of job openings was little changed at 7.7 million in January, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Hires held at 5.4 million, and total separations changed little at 5.3 million. Within...
Calculated Risk
Tuesday: Job Openings From Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily: Mortgage Rates Recover Some of Last Week's Losses Bonds...
5 months ago
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5 months ago
From Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily: Mortgage Rates Recover Some of Last Week's Losses Bonds are once again paying attention to weakness in stocks--it just happened to take a bigger drop in stocks that we saw last week. Despite the improvement in rates, we would still...
Calculated Risk
AAR: Rail Carloads Down YoY in February, Intermodal Up From the Association of American Railroads (AAR) Rail Time Indicators. Graphs and excerpts...
5 months ago
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5 months ago
From the Association of American Railroads (AAR) Rail Time Indicators. Graphs and excerpts reprinted with permission. Uncertainty shapes economic cycles — fueling booms, triggering busts, and driving debates about what comes next. Uncertainty abounds in the railroad industry...
oftwominds-Charles...
Going Cold Turkey in our Addiction Economy We're prone to addiction, and addiction is highly profitable. They know it, and we know it. We...
5 months ago
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5 months ago
We're prone to addiction, and addiction is highly profitable. They know it, and we know it. We inhabit an Addiction Economy. We all know the cure for addiction is to go Cold Turkey: drop the denial and delusion of control, and excise the source of the addiction from one's...
Calculated Risk
Part 1: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-March 2025 Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Part 1: Current State of the Housing Market;...
5 months ago
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5 months ago
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Part 1: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-March 2025 A brief excerpt: This 2-part overview for mid-March provides a snapshot of the current housing market. tells the tale. Currently I’m watching...
The Diff
Text and Telos Plus! Diff Jobs; Scaling; Retail Investors; Comparative Advantage; Transaction Costs and Corporate...
5 months ago
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5 months ago
Plus! Diff Jobs; Scaling; Retail Investors; Comparative Advantage; Transaction Costs and Corporate Structure; DeepSeek Governance
Calculated Risk
Housing March 10th Weekly Update: Inventory up 0.5% Week-over-week, Up 28.3% Year-over-year Altos reports that active single-family inventory was up 0.5% week-over-week. Inventory is now up...
5 months ago
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5 months ago
Altos reports that active single-family inventory was up 0.5% week-over-week. Inventory is now up 2.9% from the seasonal bottom eight weeks ago in January and should start increasing significantly in the Spring. The first graph shows the seasonal pattern for active...
Calculated Risk
Sunday Night Futures Weekend: Schedule for Week of March 9, 2025 Pre-Market Data and Bloomberg futures S&P 500 are down...
5 months ago
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5 months ago
Weekend: Schedule for Week of March 9, 2025 Pre-Market Data and Bloomberg futures S&P 500 are down 48 and DOW futures are down 294 (fair value). WTI futures at $67.04 per barrel and Brent at $70.36 per barrel. A year ago, WTI was at $79, and Brent was at $84 - so WTI oil prices...
Mazdak
Manus: The AI Agent That Could Change Everything On March 6, the global AI landscape shifted.
5 months ago
Mazdak
How Public Company Executives Borrow Against Their Shares to Defer Taxes For ultra-wealthy individuals and executives of public companies, borrowing against their shares is...
5 months ago
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5 months ago
For ultra-wealthy individuals and executives of public companies, borrowing against their shares is a powerful financial strategy.
Calculated Risk
Poor Weather Reduced Employment Slightly in February The BLS reported 151 thousand non-farm jobs were added in February.   During the Winter months, I...
5 months ago
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5 months ago
The BLS reported 151 thousand non-farm jobs were added in February.   During the Winter months, I like to look at the weather impact on the report. The BLS reported 404 thousand people were employed in non-agriculture industries, with a job, but not at work due to bad weather. ...
Calculated Risk
Real Estate Newsletter Articles this Week: Property Insurance Costs Rose at a Record Rate in 2024 At the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter this week: Click on graph for larger image. ICE...
5 months ago
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5 months ago
At the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter this week: Click on graph for larger image. ICE Mortgage Monitor: Property Insurance Costs Rose at a Record Rate in 2024 Fannie and Freddie: Single Family Serious Delinquency Rates Increased in January 1st Look at Local Housing...
The Diff
Longreads + Open Thread Personal Essays, Lies, Popes, GPT-4.5, Banks, Buy-and-Hold, Advanced Portfolio Management, Trade,...
5 months ago
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5 months ago
Personal Essays, Lies, Popes, GPT-4.5, Banks, Buy-and-Hold, Advanced Portfolio Management, Trade, Karp
Calculated Risk
Schedule for Week of March 9, 2025 The key report this week is February CPI. ----- Monday, March 10th ----- No major economic releases...
5 months ago
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5 months ago
The key report this week is February CPI. ----- Monday, March 10th ----- No major economic releases scheduled. ----- Tuesday, March 11th ----- 6:00 AM ET: NFIB Small Business Optimism Index for February. 10:00 AM ET: Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey for January from the...
Calculated Risk
March 7th COVID Update: COVID Deaths Declining Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. For deaths, I'm...
5 months ago
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5 months ago
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. For deaths, I'm currently using 4 weeks ago for "now", since the most recent three weeks will be revised significantly. Note: "Effective May 1, 2024, hospitals are no longer required to report...
Calculated Risk
Wholesale Used Car Prices Decreased in February; Up 0.1% Year-over-year From Manheim Consulting today: Wholesale Used-Vehicle Prices Decreased in February Wholesale...
5 months ago
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5 months ago
From Manheim Consulting today: Wholesale Used-Vehicle Prices Decreased in February Wholesale used-vehicle prices (on a mix, mileage, and seasonally adjusted basis) were lower in February compared to January. The Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index (MUVVI) decreased to 204.1, which...
Calculated Risk
Asking Rents Mostly Unchanged Year-over-year Today, in the Real Estate Newsletter: Asking Rents Mostly Unchanged Year-over-year Brief excerpt:...
5 months ago
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5 months ago
Today, in the Real Estate Newsletter: Asking Rents Mostly Unchanged Year-over-year Brief excerpt: Another monthly update on rents. Apartment List: Asking Rent Growth -0.4% Year-over-year ... On the supply side of the rental market, our national vacancy index now sits at 6.9...
Calculated Risk
Fed Chair Powell: Economic Outlook "Uncertainty" From Fed Chair Powell: Economic Outlook Despite elevated levels of uncertainty, the U.S. economy...
5 months ago
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5 months ago
From Fed Chair Powell: Economic Outlook Despite elevated levels of uncertainty, the U.S. economy continues to be in a good place. The labor market is solid, and inflation has moved closer to our 2 percent longer-run goal. At the Federal Reserve, we are intently focused on the...
Calculated Risk
Q1 GDP Tracking: Mid-to-High 1% Range Special Note: There was a surge in gold imports in January. There is a time lag for when the...
5 months ago
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5 months ago
Special Note: There was a surge in gold imports in January. There is a time lag for when the imported gold will show up in inventories. GDPNow will correct for this once the gold is included as an increase in inventories, but currently GDPNow just included the import side. ...
The Diff
Two Kinds of News Business Plus! AI as an Interface; Post-Post; Meta-Moderation; Custom Finance; Voice and Search
5 months ago
Calculated Risk
Comments on February Employment Report The headline jobs number in the February employment report was slightly below expectations, and...
5 months ago
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5 months ago
The headline jobs number in the February employment report was slightly below expectations, and December and January payrolls were revised down by 2,000 combined.   The participation rate and the employment population ratio decreased, and the unemployment rate increased to...
Calculated Risk
February Employment Report: 151 thousand Jobs, 4.1% Unemployment Rate From the BLS: Employment Situation Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 151,000 in February,...
5 months ago
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5 months ago
From the BLS: Employment Situation Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 151,000 in February, and the unemployment rate changed little at 4.1 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Employment trended up in health care, financial activities,...
Calculated Risk
Friday: Employment Report, Fed Chair Powell Speaks Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. Employment...
5 months ago
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5 months ago
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. Employment Report for February.   The consensus is for 158,000 jobs added, and for the unemployment rate to be unchanged at 4.0%. Speech, Fed Chair Jerome Powell, Economic Outlook, At The...
Calculated Risk
February Employment Preview On Friday at 8:30 AM ET, the BLS will release the employment report for February. The consensus is...
5 months ago
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5 months ago
On Friday at 8:30 AM ET, the BLS will release the employment report for February. The consensus is for 158,000 jobs added, and for the unemployment rate to be unchanged at 4.0%. We estimate nonfarm payrolls rose by 170k in February, slightly above consensus of +160k but below...