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Calculated Risk
Schedule for Week of March 23, 2025 The key reports scheduled for this week include February New Home sales, the 3rd estimate of Q4 GDP,...
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5 months ago
The key reports scheduled for this week include February New Home sales, the 3rd estimate of Q4 GDP, February Personal Income & Outlays, and January Case-Shiller house prices. ----- Monday, March 24th ----- 8:30 AM ET: Chicago Fed National Activity Index for February. This is a...
Calculated Risk
March 21st COVID Update: COVID Deaths Continue Declining Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. For deaths, I'm...
5 months ago
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5 months ago
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. For deaths, I'm currently using 4 weeks ago for "now", since the most recent three weeks will be revised significantly. Note: "Effective May 1, 2024, hospitals are no longer required to report...
Calculated Risk
Lennar: "Didn't see typical seasonal pickup after February" Today, in the CalculatedRisk Real Estate Newsletter: Lennar: "Didn't see typical seasonal pickup...
5 months ago
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5 months ago
Today, in the CalculatedRisk Real Estate Newsletter: Lennar: "Didn't see typical seasonal pickup after February" This is a short note … How much will Residential investment change in 2025? How about housing starts and new home sales in 2025? What will happen with house prices in...
Calculated Risk
Hotels: Occupancy Rate Decreased 3.5% Year-over-year From the WaPo: Nervous about Trump, international tourists scrap their U.S. travel plans...
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From the WaPo: Nervous about Trump, international tourists scrap their U.S. travel plans International travel to the United States is expected to slide by 5 percent this year, contributing to a $64 billion shortfall for the travel industry, according to Tourism Economics. The...
oftwominds-Charles...
POD People 2025 In one way or another, we're all POD People now, for precarity, ordeals and debasement are the New...
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5 months ago
In one way or another, we're all POD People now, for precarity, ordeals and debasement are the New Normal. In the cultural zeitgeist, the term Pod People refers to the novel and film franchise Invasion of the Body Snatchers, in which nomadic aliens reach Earth and spawn...
Calculated Risk
Q1 GDP Tracking: Wide Range NOTE: An update to the gold adjusted GDPNow will be released on March 26th. Based on the previous...
5 months ago
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NOTE: An update to the gold adjusted GDPNow will be released on March 26th. Based on the previous adjustment, it appears GDPNow (adjusted) is slightly positive for Q1. (For more on the gold adjustment, see For GDP Forecasters, Some Gold Doesn't Glitter Our 1Q GDP tracking...
The Diff
Why do Stocks Only go up at Night? Plus! AI Adoption and Incumbents; DOGE; The News Business; Financing the Trade; What do Oil...
5 months ago
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5 months ago
Plus! AI Adoption and Incumbents; DOGE; The News Business; Financing the Trade; What do Oil Companies Want?
Calculated Risk
Intercontinental Exchange: Mortgage Delinquency Rate Increased in February From ICE: ICE First Look at Mortgage Performance: Mortgage Delinquencies Continue to Slowly Rise...
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From ICE: ICE First Look at Mortgage Performance: Mortgage Delinquencies Continue to Slowly Rise with FHA Performance in the Spotlight • The national delinquency rate edged up 5 basis points (bps) to 3.53% in February; that’s up 19 bps from a year ago but still 32 bps below where...
Calculated Risk
Realtor.com Reports Active Inventory Up 28.5% YoY What this means: On a weekly basis, Realtor.com reports the year-over-year change in active...
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What this means: On a weekly basis, Realtor.com reports the year-over-year change in active inventory and new listings. On a monthly basis, they report total inventory. For February, Realtor.com reported inventory was up 27.5% YoY, but still down 22.9% compared to the 2017 to...
Calculated Risk
Newsletter: NAR: Existing-Home Sales Increased to 4.26 million SAAR in February Today, in the CalculatedRisk Real Estate Newsletter: NAR: Existing-Home Sales Increased to 4.26...
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5 months ago
Today, in the CalculatedRisk Real Estate Newsletter: NAR: Existing-Home Sales Increased to 4.26 million SAAR in February; Down 1.2% YoY Sales in February (4.26 million SAAR) were up 4.2% from the previous month and were 1.2% below the February 2024 sales rate. This breaks the...
Citation Needed
Issue 79 – Mundus sine Caesaribus The crypto industry frees itself from the last remnants of SEC oversight, and Solana tries to appeal...
5 months ago
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The crypto industry frees itself from the last remnants of SEC oversight, and Solana tries to appeal to its target demographic by bashing trans people
Calculated Risk
NAR: Existing-Home Sales Increased to 4.26 million SAAR in February; Down 1.2% YoY From the NAR: Existing-Home Sales Accelerated 4.2% in February Existing-home sales ascended in...
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5 months ago
From the NAR: Existing-Home Sales Accelerated 4.2% in February Existing-home sales ascended in February, according to the National Association of REALTORS®. For both monthly and year-over-year sales, two major U.S. regions experienced growth, one region remained stable and the...
The Diff
Investors as Translators Plus! $44bn; Banks and Rates Trades; Connected Cows; Competing With AI; Recaps
5 months ago
Calculated Risk
Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Increase to 223,000 The DOL reported: seasonally adjusted initial claims was 223,000, an increase of 2,000 from the...
5 months ago
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5 months ago
The DOL reported: seasonally adjusted initial claims was 223,000, an increase of 2,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 1,000 from 220,000 to 221,000. The 4-week moving average was 227,000, an increase of 750 from the previous...
Moneyness
Canadian banks as U.S. hostages? BMO Financial Center at Market Square in Milwaukee, Wisconsin. Donald Trump has said he wants to...
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5 months ago
BMO Financial Center at Market Square in Milwaukee, Wisconsin. Donald Trump has said he wants to use "economic force" against Canada. In my previous post, I worried that one way this force could be wielded was through Canada's dangerous dependence on U.S.-controlled...
Calculated Risk
Thursday: Unemployment Claims, Philly Fed Mfg, Existing Home Sales Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. initial weekly...
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5 months ago
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for 224 initial claims up from 220 thousand last week. Philly Fed manufacturing survey for March. The consensus is for...
Calculated Risk
LA Ports: February Inbound Traffic Up YoY, Outbound Down Container traffic gives us an idea about the volume of goods being exported and imported - and...
5 months ago
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5 months ago
Container traffic gives us an idea about the volume of goods being exported and imported - and usually some hints about the trade report since LA area ports handle about 40% of the nation's container port traffic. Los Angeles and Long Beach in TEUs (TEUs: 20-foot equivalent units...
Calculated Risk
FOMC Projections: GDP Revised Down, Inflation Revised Up Statement here. press conference video here or on YouTube here, starting at 2:30 PM...
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Statement here. press conference video here or on YouTube here, starting at 2:30 PM ET. projections.   In December, the FOMC participants’ midpoint of the target level for the federal funds rate was around 3.875% at the end of 2025 (3.6%-4.1%) and the long run range was 2.8% to...
oftwominds-Charles...
The Economy of Denial: Addiction, Extortion, Deception Denial doesn't end well, and the 'Economy of Denial' is destined to deconstruction. Even the...
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Denial doesn't end well, and the 'Economy of Denial' is destined to deconstruction. Even the most opinionated become circumspect when the discussion turns to The Addiction Economy, for the term The Addiction Economy calls things by their real name, which disrupts our...
Calculated Risk
FOMC Statement: No Change to Fed Funds Rate; "Uncertainty Increased" Fed Chair Powell press conference video here or on YouTube here, starting at 2:30 PM ET. FOMC...
5 months ago
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5 months ago
Fed Chair Powell press conference video here or on YouTube here, starting at 2:30 PM ET. FOMC Statement: Uncertainty around the economic outlook has increased. The Committee is attentive to the risks to both sides of its dual mandate. maintain the target range for the federal...
Calculated Risk
AIA: "Billings remain soft at architecture firms as interest in new projects wanes" Note: This index is a leading indicator primarily for new Commercial Real Estate (CRE)...
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Note: This index is a leading indicator primarily for new Commercial Real Estate (CRE) investment. ABI February 2025: Billings remain soft at architecture firms as interest in new projects wanes The AIA/Deltek Architecture Billings Index (ABI) score was 45.5 for the month,...
Calculated Risk
California Home Sales Up 2.6% YoY in February; 4th Look at Local Housing Markets Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: California Home Sales Up 2.6% YoY in February;...
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Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: California Home Sales Up 2.6% YoY in February; 4th Look at Local Housing Markets A brief excerpt: Here are a few more local markets prior to the NAR release tomorrow. Tom Lawler expects the NAR to report sales of 4.21 million...
Calculated Risk
MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly Survey From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly Survey Mortgage applications...
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From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly Survey Mortgage applications decreased 6.2 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending March 14, 2025....
Calculated Risk
Wednesday: FOMC Statement Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. mortgage...
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Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. mortgage purchase applications index. Architecture Billings Index for February (a leading indicator for commercial real estate). FOMC Meeting Announcement. No change to policy is expected at this...
Calculated Risk
Las Vegas in January: Visitor Traffic Down 1.1% YoY; Convention Traffic Up YoY From the Las Vegas Visitor Authority: January 2025 Las Vegas Visitor Statistics Las Vegas started...
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From the Las Vegas Visitor Authority: January 2025 Las Vegas Visitor Statistics Las Vegas started the year with January visitation of approx. 3.34M visitors, down 1.1% from last January. as Vegas convention attendance reached roughly 629k in January, up 12.8% YoY, supported in...
Calculated Risk
Newsletter: Housing Starts Increased to 1.501 million Annual Rate in February; Length of Time from... Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Housing Starts Increased to 1.501 million...
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Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Housing Starts Increased to 1.501 million Annual Rate in February A brief excerpt: Total housing starts in February were above expectations; however, starts in December and January were revised down slightly, combined. Total...
The Diff
MNTN Scales the Small-Scale Advertiser Plus! Liquidity; Monetizing AI; Regulatory Arbitrages; Bundling, Unbundling, and Temporarily...
5 months ago
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Plus! Liquidity; Monetizing AI; Regulatory Arbitrages; Bundling, Unbundling, and Temporarily Rebundling; Competing for Capital
Calculated Risk
Industrial Production Increased 0.7% in February From the Fed: Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization Industrial production (IP) increased...
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From the Fed: Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization Industrial production (IP) increased 0.7 percent in February after moving up 0.3 percent in January. Manufacturing output rose 0.9 percent, boosted by a jump of 8.5 percent in the index for motor vehicles and parts. The...
Calculated Risk
Housing Starts Increased to 1.501 million Annual Rate in February From the Census Bureau: Permits, Starts and Completions Housing Starts: seasonally adjusted annual...
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5 months ago
From the Census Bureau: Permits, Starts and Completions Housing Starts: seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,501,000. This is 11.2 percent above the revised January estimate of 1,350,000, but is 2.9 percent below the February 2024 rate of 1,546,000. Single-family housing...
Commoncog
How Reliance Won How the Ambanis became the richest family in Asia. This is the third case on the rise of a tycoon,...
5 months ago
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How the Ambanis became the richest family in Asia. This is the third case on the rise of a tycoon, and the last one before we start talking about the core pattern in all of these Asian Tycoon’s lives. Part 6 in the Asian Conglomerate Series.
Calculated Risk
Tuesday: Housing Starts, Industrial Production Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. Housing Starts...
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Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. Housing Starts for February. The consensus is for 1.383 million SAAR, up from 1.366 million SAAR. Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization for February. The consensus is a 0.3% increase in...
Calculated Risk
MBA Survey: Share of Mortgage Loans in Forbearance Decreases to 0.38% in February From the MBA: Share of Mortgage Loans in Forbearance Decreases Slightly to 0.38% in February The...
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5 months ago
From the MBA: Share of Mortgage Loans in Forbearance Decreases Slightly to 0.38% in February The Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) monthly Loan Monitoring Survey revealed that the total number of loans now in forbearance decreased by 2 basis points from 0.40% of servicers’...
Calculated Risk
Lawler: Early Read on Existing Home Sales in February Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Lawler: Early Read on Existing Home Sales in...
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Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Lawler: Early Read on Existing Home Sales in February; Recent Rent Trends at Two Large Publicly Traded Companies in the Single-Family Rental Business A brief excerpt: From housing economist Tom Lawler: seasonally adjusted...
Calculated Risk
3rd Look at Local Housing Markets in February Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: 3rd Look at Local Housing Markets in...
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5 months ago
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: 3rd Look at Local Housing Markets in February A brief excerpt: The NAR is scheduled to release February Existing Home sales on Thursday, March 20th at 10:00 AM. The consensus is for 3.92 million SAAR, down from 4.08 million...
oftwominds-Charles...
Here Come the Chaos Monkeys The Chaos Monkeys are so masterful at distracting and confusing us with sensory-digital overload,...
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The Chaos Monkeys are so masterful at distracting and confusing us with sensory-digital overload, we're not even aware of the game until the extortion begins. Chaos Monkeys excel at distraction and extortion. They appear suddenly, leaping about in disorienting mayhem,...
The Diff
Klarna and the Two Pivots of 2022 Plus! Diff Jobs; Crypto Adoption; Art Margin Calls; Liquidations; Corporate Espionage; DeepSeek
5 months ago
Calculated Risk
NAHB: "Builder Confidence Falls on Cost Uncertainty" in March The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) reported the housing market index (HMI) was at 39,...
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The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) reported the housing market index (HMI) was at 39, down from 42 last month. Any number below 50 indicates that more builders view sales conditions as poor than good. Builder Confidence Falls on Cost Uncertainty Economic...
Calculated Risk
Retail Sales Increased 0.2% in February On a monthly basis, retail sales increased 0.2% from January to February (seasonally adjusted), and...
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On a monthly basis, retail sales increased 0.2% from January to February (seasonally adjusted), and sales were up 3.1 percent from February 2024. report: Advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for February 2025, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and...
Calculated Risk
Housing March 17th Weekly Update: Inventory up 2.1% Week-over-week, Up 29.3% Year-over-year Altos reports that active single-family inventory was up 2.1% week-over-week. Inventory is now up...
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Altos reports that active single-family inventory was up 2.1% week-over-week. Inventory is now up 5.0% from the seasonal bottom nine weeks ago in January and us starting to increase seasonally. The first graph shows the seasonal pattern for active single-family inventory...
Calculated Risk
Monday: Retail Sales, NY Fed Mfg, Homebuilder Survey Weekend: Schedule for Week of March 16, 2025 FOMC Preview Retail sales for February is scheduled to...
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Weekend: Schedule for Week of March 16, 2025 FOMC Preview Retail sales for February is scheduled to be released.  The consensus is for a 0.7% increase in retail sales. Empire State manufacturing survey for March. The consensus is for a reading of -2.0, down from 5.7. NAHB...
Molson Hart's Blog -...
The DECIDE Algorithm — A Simple Step-by-Step Method for Converting Idle Time into Productive Action DECIDE D - Determine the Bottleneck E - Engage with the subject matter C - Clear distractions I -...
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DECIDE D - Determine the Bottleneck E - Engage with the subject matter C - Clear distractions I - Implement mental models D - Decide how to proceed E - Execute next steps When you’re traveling or waiting for something to happen, instead of listening to a podcast or scrolling on...
Calculated Risk
FOMC Preview: No Change to Fed Funds Rate Most analysts expect no change to FOMC policy at the meeting this week, keeping the target range at...
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Most analysts expect no change to FOMC policy at the meeting this week, keeping the target range at 4 1/4 to 4 1/2 percent.    Market participants currently expect the FOMC to be on hold at the March and May meetings, with the next rate cut in June, and another cut later in the...
The Rational Walk
Berkshire Hathaway’s 2025 Proxy Statement Berkshire has introduced a retirement age of eighty for most directors, a surprising development...
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Berkshire has introduced a retirement age of eighty for most directors, a surprising development given Warren Buffett's prior statements.
Calculated Risk
Real Estate Newsletter Articles this Week: At the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter this week: Click on graph for larger image. The "Home...
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At the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter this week: Click on graph for larger image. The "Home ATM" Mostly Closed in Q4 Q4 Update: Delinquencies, Foreclosures and REO Part 1: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-March 2025 Part 2: Current State of the...
Musings on Markets
Investing Politics: Globalization Backlash and Government Disruption! I will start with a couple of confessions. The first is that I see the world in shades of gray, and...
5 months ago
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I will start with a couple of confessions. The first is that I see the world in shades of gray, and in a world where more and more people see only black and white, that makes me an outlier. Thus, if you are reading this post expecting me to post a diatribe or a tribute to Trump,...
The Diff
Longreads + Open Thread Equity Nation, Hansa, Commodities, DOGE, LLMS, Recessions, AI, Rhodes, The GFC
5 months ago
Calculated Risk
Schedule for Week of March 16, 2025 The key reports this week are February Retail sales, Housing Starts and Existing Home Sales. -----...
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The key reports this week are February Retail sales, Housing Starts and Existing Home Sales. ----- Monday, March 17th ----- 8:30 AM: Retail sales for February is scheduled to be released.  The consensus is for a 0.7% increase in retail sales. Empire State manufacturing survey...
FIRE v London
Feb ’25: The top comes off What’s in the news? The Trump, is in the news. He gets more than enough coverage without me adding...
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What’s in the news? The Trump, is in the news. He gets more than enough coverage without me adding to it. From the point of view of what affects portfolios like mine, a few things happened What’s going on with me? My personal life was quite busy in February. I visited the UK city...
Calculated Risk
March 14th COVID Update: COVID Deaths Declining Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. For deaths, I'm...
5 months ago
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5 months ago
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. For deaths, I'm currently using 4 weeks ago for "now", since the most recent three weeks will be revised significantly. Note: "Effective May 1, 2024, hospitals are no longer required to report...
Moneyness
Trump-proofing Canada means ditching MasterCard and Visa We're all busy doing our best to boycott U.S. products. I can't buy Special K cereal anymore,...
5 months ago
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We're all busy doing our best to boycott U.S. products. I can't buy Special K cereal anymore, because it's made in the U.S. by Kellogg's. But I'm still buying Shreddies, which is made in Niagara Falls, Ontario. Even that's a grey area, since Shreddies is owned by Post, a big...