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Calculated Risk
Wednesday: Housing Starts, FOMC Meeting Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. mortgage...
8 months ago
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8 months ago
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. mortgage purchase applications index. Housing Starts for November. The consensus is for 1.344 million SAAR, up from 1.311 million SAAR. Architecture Billings Index for October (a leading indicator...
Moneyness
After twelve years of writing about bitcoin, here's how my thinking has changed What follows is an essay on how my thinking on bitcoin has changed since I began to write on the...
8 months ago
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8 months ago
What follows is an essay on how my thinking on bitcoin has changed since I began to write on the topic starting with my first post in October 2012. Since then I've written 109 posts on the Moneyness Blog that reference bitcoin, along with a few dozen articles at venues like...
Calculated Risk
Lawler: Early Read on Existing Home Sales in November Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Lawler: Early Read on Existing Home Sales in...
8 months ago
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8 months ago
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Lawler: Early Read on Existing Home Sales in November A brief excerpt: From housing economist Tom Lawler: seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.09 million in November, up 3.3% from October’s preliminary pace and up 4.6% from...
Citation Needed
Businessweek: Crypto Got What It Wanted in November’s Election. Now What? The industry is now in a position to weaken financial rules that might protect consumers from the...
8 months ago
The Diff
Infrastructure on top of Infrastructure Plus! AI as an Interface; AI and Property Rights; Covering an EV Short Position; Heterogeneous...
8 months ago
75
8 months ago
Plus! AI as an Interface; AI and Property Rights; Covering an EV Short Position; Heterogeneous Consumption Baskets as Subtle Union-Busting; Second-Order Effects
Calculated Risk
NAHB: Builder Confidence Unchanged in December The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) reported the housing market index (HMI) was at 46,...
8 months ago
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8 months ago
The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) reported the housing market index (HMI) was at 46, unchanged from 46 last month. Any number below 50 indicates that more builders view sales conditions as poor than good. Builder sentiment held steady to end the year as high home...
Calculated Risk
Industrial Production Decreased 0.1% in November Earlier from the Fed: Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization Industrial production (IP)...
8 months ago
44
8 months ago
Earlier from the Fed: Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization Industrial production (IP) moved down 0.1 percent in November after declining 0.4 percent in October. In November, manufacturing output rose 0.2 percent, boosted by a 3.5 percent increase in the index for motor...
Calculated Risk
Retail Sales Increased 0.7% in November On a monthly basis, retail sales increased 0.7% from October to November (seasonally adjusted), and...
8 months ago
62
8 months ago
On a monthly basis, retail sales increased 0.7% from October to November (seasonally adjusted), and sales were up 3.8 percent from November 2023. report: Advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for November 2024, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and...
Mazdak
Waymo in Japan, Veo 2 AI video, Snapchat Monetization ... Google DeepMind has upped the game in AI video generation.
8 months ago
Calculated Risk
Tuesday: Retail Sales, Industrial Production, Homebuilder Survey From Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily: Mortgage Rates Start New Week With Some Hope Last week...
8 months ago
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8 months ago
From Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily: Mortgage Rates Start New Week With Some Hope Last week wasn't great for mortgage rates. They moved higher on each of the 5 days. Moreover, there was a distinct lack of logical motivation from the economic data. In fact, on a few...
Calculated Risk
Hotels: Occupancy Rate increased Year-over-year From STR: U.S. hotel results for week ending 7 December The U.S. hotel industry reported positive...
8 months ago
45
8 months ago
From STR: U.S. hotel results for week ending 7 December The U.S. hotel industry reported positive year-over-year performance comparisons, according to CoStar’s latest data through 7 December. ... Occupancy: 59.0% (+0.5%) emphasis added The following graph shows the seasonal...
Calculated Risk
3rd Look at Local Housing Markets in November Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: 3rd Look at Local Housing Markets in...
8 months ago
57
8 months ago
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: 3rd Look at Local Housing Markets in November A brief excerpt: The NAR is scheduled to release November Existing Home sales on Thursday, December 19th at 10:00 AM. The consensus is for 3.97 million SAAR, up from 3.96 million...
The Diff
What Would it Look Like if The Pod Shop Model Blew Up? Plus! Economic Blocs; Benefits; Headlines; IP and Finance; Squaring the Global Imbalances Circle
8 months ago
Calculated Risk
Housing Dec 16th Weekly Update: Inventory down 1.1% Week-over-week, Up 26.6% Year-over-year Altos reports that active single-family inventory was down 1.1% week-over-week.  Inventory is now...
8 months ago
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8 months ago
Altos reports that active single-family inventory was down 1.1% week-over-week.  Inventory is now 7.7% below the peak for the year (8 weeks ago). Inventory will continue to decline seasonally until early next year. The first graph shows the seasonal pattern for active...
Calculated Risk
Sunday Night Futures Weekend: Schedule for Week of December 15, 2024 Empire State manufacturing survey for December. The...
8 months ago
44
8 months ago
Weekend: Schedule for Week of December 15, 2024 Empire State manufacturing survey for December. The consensus is for a reading of 5.8, down from 31.2. Pre-Market Data and Bloomberg futures S&P 500 and DOW futures are mostly unchanged (fair value). WTI futures at $71.12 per...
Calculated Risk
FOMC Preview: Fed to Cut Rates 25bp Most analysts expect the FOMC will cut the federal funds rate at the meeting this week by 25bp...
8 months ago
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8 months ago
Most analysts expect the FOMC will cut the federal funds rate at the meeting this week by 25bp lowering the target range to 4 1/4 to 4 1/2 percent.   However, most market participants now expect the FOMC to pause in January and are split on a rate cut at the March...
Calculated Risk
Real Estate Newsletter Articles this Week: "Home ATM" Mostly Closed At the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter this week: Click on graph for larger image. Part 1:...
8 months ago
34
8 months ago
At the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter this week: Click on graph for larger image. Part 1: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-December 2024 Part 2: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-December 2024 The "Home ATM" Mostly Closed in Q3 2nd...
The Diff
Longreads + Open Thread Kotkin, Luttwak, Poker, DRW, PCs, Statistics, AI, Hamilton
8 months ago
Calculated Risk
Schedule for Week of December 15, 2024 The key economic reports this week are Retail Sales, Housing Starts, Existing Home Sales, the 3rd...
8 months ago
51
8 months ago
The key economic reports this week are Retail Sales, Housing Starts, Existing Home Sales, the 3rd estimate of Q3 GDP, and November Personal income and outlays. ----- Monday, December 16th ----- 8:30 AM: The New York Fed Empire State manufacturing survey for December. The...
Calculated Risk
December 13th COVID Update: COVID in Wastewater Increasing Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. For deaths, I'm...
8 months ago
35
8 months ago
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. For deaths, I'm currently using 4 weeks ago for "now", since the most recent three weeks will be revised significantly. Note: "Effective May 1, 2024, hospitals are no longer required to report...
Calculated Risk
Part 2: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-December 2024 Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Part 2: Current State of the Housing Market;...
8 months ago
33
8 months ago
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Part 2: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-December 2024 A brief excerpt: Earlier this week, in Part 1: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-December 2024 I reviewed home inventory, housing...
Moneyness
It's time to trash the "store of value" function of money When we first learn about money and banking in high school or university, we are all taught that...
8 months ago
24
8 months ago
When we first learn about money and banking in high school or university, we are all taught that money has three functions: medium of exchange, unit of account, and store of value. Maybe it’s time for educators to throw out this triumvirate. It’s not very accurate.  We need a...
Calculated Risk
Q3 Update: Delinquencies, Foreclosures and REO Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Q3 Update: Delinquencies, Foreclosures and...
8 months ago
50
8 months ago
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Q3 Update: Delinquencies, Foreclosures and REO A brief excerpt: We will NOT see a surge in foreclosures that would significantly impact house prices (as happened following the housing bubble) for two key reasons: 1) mortgage...
The Diff
That Top-of-Cycle Feeling Plus! Search; Cost of Capital; Duration; Aggregate Demand; Leaky Restrictions
8 months ago
Calculated Risk
Q4 GDP Tracking: 2.1% to 3.3% Range From BofA: Since our last weekly publication, our 3Q GDP tracking estimate has moved up a tenth to...
8 months ago
49
8 months ago
From BofA: Since our last weekly publication, our 3Q GDP tracking estimate has moved up a tenth to 3.0% q/q saar. Additionally, our 4Q US GDP tracker was unchanged at 2.1% q/q saar. [Dec 13th estimate] emphasis added From Goldman: We left our Q4 GDP tracking and domestic final...
Mazdak
Big Tech Donating to Trump's Inaugural Fund, Teens' Online Habits, More Tech Updates Amazon is reportedly donating $1M to Trump’s inaugural fund and will stream the inauguration on...
8 months ago
Calculated Risk
Friday: No major economic releases scheduled Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. Friday: • No...
8 months ago
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8 months ago
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. Friday: • No major economic releases scheduled.
Calculated Risk
Realtor.com Reports Active Inventory Up 23.5% YoY What this means: On a weekly basis, Realtor.com reports the year-over-year change in active...
8 months ago
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8 months ago
What this means: On a weekly basis, Realtor.com reports the year-over-year change in active inventory and new listings. On a monthly basis, they report total inventory. For November, Realtor.com reported inventory was up 26.2% YoY, but still down 21.5% compared to the 2017 to...
Calculated Risk
The "Home ATM" Mostly Closed in Q3 Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: The "Home ATM" Mostly Closed in Q3 A brief...
8 months ago
40
8 months ago
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: The "Home ATM" Mostly Closed in Q3 A brief excerpt: During the housing bubble, many homeowners borrowed heavily against their perceived home equity - jokingly calling it the “Home ATM” - and this contributed to the subsequent...
Calculated Risk
Fed's Flow of Funds: Household Net Worth Increased $4.8 Trillion in Q3 The Federal Reserve released the Q3 2024 Flow of Funds report today: Financial Accounts of the...
8 months ago
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8 months ago
The Federal Reserve released the Q3 2024 Flow of Funds report today: Financial Accounts of the United States. Click on graph for larger image. Net worth increased $4.8 trillion in Q3 to an all-time high.  As a percent of GDP, net worth increased in Q3 but is below the peak in...
Calculated Risk
FDIC: Number of Problem Banks Increased Slightly in Q3 2024 The FDIC released the Quarterly Banking Profile for Q3 2024: The Industry’s Net Income Decreased...
8 months ago
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8 months ago
The FDIC released the Quarterly Banking Profile for Q3 2024: The Industry’s Net Income Decreased From the Prior Quarter, Driven by One-Time Items Asset Quality Metrics Remained Generally Favorable, Though Weakness in Certain Portfolios Persists the industry reported the largest...
The Diff
Just Another Risk Asset Plus! SPVs; The Global Advantage; Cachet; GLP-1 Friendliness; Integrations
8 months ago
Calculated Risk
Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Increase to 242,000 The DOL reported: emphasis added The following graph shows the 4-week moving average of weekly...
8 months ago
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8 months ago
The DOL reported: emphasis added The following graph shows the 4-week moving average of weekly claims since 1971. Click on graph for larger image. The dashed line on the graph is the current 4-week average. The four-week average of weekly unemployment claims increased to...
Mazdak
Apple Intelligence, Gemini 2.0, Amazon Autos and more Apple just redefined how we use Siri.
8 months ago
Calculated Risk
Thursday: Unemployment Claims, PPI, Q3 Flow of Funds Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. initial weekly...
8 months ago
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8 months ago
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for 220 thousand initial claims, up from 213 thousand last week. Producer Price Index for November from the BLS. The...
Calculated Risk
2nd Look at Local Housing Markets in November Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: 2nd Look at Local Housing Markets in...
9 months ago
39
9 months ago
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: 2nd Look at Local Housing Markets in November A brief excerpt: NOTE: The tables for active listings, new listings and closed sales all include a comparison to November 2019 for each local market (some 2019 data is not...
Musings on Markets
For the fun of it: An Open House for my Spring 2025 Classes I am a teacher at heart, and every year, for more than two decades, I have invited people to join me...
9 months ago
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9 months ago
I am a teacher at heart, and every year, for more than two decades, I have invited people to join me in the classes that I teach at the Stern School of Business at New York University. Since I teach these classes only in the spring, and the first sessions for each of the classes...
The Diff
How High Does AI's Revenue Per User Get? Plus! The Challenges of Scaling Challengers; The Reddit Loop; Scaling AI by Doing Things That Don't...
9 months ago
50
9 months ago
Plus! The Challenges of Scaling Challengers; The Reddit Loop; Scaling AI by Doing Things That Don't Scale Yet; Complete Markets; Legitimacy and Growth
Commoncog
Power and Asian Business The culmination of the Power in Business mini series. What it’s like doing business without the Rule...
9 months ago
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9 months ago
The culmination of the Power in Business mini series. What it’s like doing business without the Rule of Law.
Mazdak
Google Quantum Computer, OpenAI Sora Video Generator and more ... Google just dropped a bombshell in quantum computing.
9 months ago
Bits about Money
Debanking (and Debunking?) Crypto advocates kicked off a recent, somewhat politicized, discussion of debanking. Strap in for...
9 months ago
109
9 months ago
Crypto advocates kicked off a recent, somewhat politicized, discussion of debanking. Strap in for scintillating banking compliance trivia.
Mazdak
Cloudflare 2024 Internet Report Analysis Join us as we break down Cloudflare's groundbreaking report and expose fascinating trends in...
9 months ago
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9 months ago
Join us as we break down Cloudflare's groundbreaking report and expose fascinating trends in internet traffic, security, and adoption.
Mazdak
Canada Tax Brackets 2025 🇨🇦 As we head into 2025, understanding Canada's tax brackets is crucial for both individuals and...
9 months ago
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9 months ago
As we head into 2025, understanding Canada's tax brackets is crucial for both individuals and businesses.
The Rational Walk
The Cost of Corporate Security The assassination of UnitedHealthcare CEO Brian Thompson revealed corruption in society that...
9 months ago
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9 months ago
The assassination of UnitedHealthcare CEO Brian Thompson revealed corruption in society that justifies higher corporate spending to protect executives.
The Diff
Social Media as a Test of Human-in-the-Loop Generative AI Plus! Holdcos; Cash and Control; War Economies; In-Kind Dividends; Currency
9 months ago
The Diff
Longreads + Open Thread Trading, Money, Homemakers, Taxes, AI, Passive
9 months ago
FIRE v London
Nov ’24: 3x London life I’ve been keeping busy as winter in London sets in. The Christmas lights are all out and...
9 months ago
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9 months ago
London life I’ve been keeping busy as winter in London sets in. The Christmas lights are all out and looking resplendent, and both the West End and the City are feeling pretty buzzy. For all the general ‘UK stuck in the weeds’ economic commentary, we feel a long way from any talk...
The Diff
Initiations Plus! Alternative Data; Size and Momentum; The Full Audience; Same-Day
9 months ago
Citation Needed
Issue 71 – (Crypto) banks are not your friends Celsius’ Alex Mashinsky pleads guilty to fraud, some Tornado Cash sanctions are overturned, and tech...
9 months ago
77
9 months ago
Celsius’ Alex Mashinsky pleads guilty to fraud, some Tornado Cash sanctions are overturned, and tech billionaires complain about “debanking”.
Mazdak
The Dangers of AI "Answers" From fake presidential pardons to AI-generated movie reviews, artificial intelligence is blurring...
9 months ago
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9 months ago
From fake presidential pardons to AI-generated movie reviews, artificial intelligence is blurring the lines between fact and fiction.