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Mazdak
Meta's Oakley Smart Glasses, TikTok's Revenue Nearly Doubled YouTube's Last Year, Hidden Hashtags on... “What if Elon Musk or Larry Ellison bought TikTok?”
7 months ago
Calculated Risk
Wednesday: Architecture Billings Index From Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily: Mortgage Rates Unimpacted by New Executive Orders Bonds...
7 months ago
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7 months ago
From Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily: Mortgage Rates Unimpacted by New Executive Orders Bonds were thus able to hold onto the gains from last week with some additional improvement today. The average mortgage lender wasn't eager to adjust rates, however, with the top tier...
Calculated Risk
MBA Survey: Share of Mortgage Loans in Forbearance Decreases to 0.47% in December From the MBA: Share of Mortgage Loans in Forbearance Decreases Slightly to 0.47% in December The...
7 months ago
40
7 months ago
From the MBA: Share of Mortgage Loans in Forbearance Decreases Slightly to 0.47% in December The Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) monthly Loan Monitoring Survey revealed that the total number of loans now in forbearance decreased by 3 basis points from 0.50% of servicers’...
Calculated Risk
Benchmarking the U.S. economy Presidents receive too much credit and blame for the economy! Benchmarking the U.S. economy that...
7 months ago
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7 months ago
Presidents receive too much credit and blame for the economy! Benchmarking the U.S. economy that President Donald Trump is set to inherit • While the U.S. economy still has challenges, especially lingering inflation and poor consumer sentiment, many important economic metrics...
The Diff
General-Purpose Technologies Revalue Natural Resources Plus! Meme Coins; Fees; Platforms; Opportunistic Offers; Private Accounting Fraud
7 months ago
Calculated Risk
3rd Look at Local Housing Markets in December Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: 3rd Look at Local Housing Markets in...
7 months ago
46
7 months ago
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: 3rd Look at Local Housing Markets in December A brief excerpt: The NAR is scheduled to release December Existing Home sales on Friday, January 24th at 10:00 AM. The consensus is for 4.20 million SAAR, up from 4.15 million in...
Mazdak
TikTok, Netflix, and the Future of Media: Key Insights from 2024's Biggest Winners In 2024, the global media landscape experienced monumental shifts, with platforms like TikTok and...
7 months ago
49
7 months ago
In 2024, the global media landscape experienced monumental shifts, with platforms like TikTok and Netflix setting unprecedented benchmarks in user engagement, ad revenue, and growth.
Mazdak
OpenAI’s Operator Tool: A Glimpse into the Future of Autonomous AI Agents Imagine an AI tool that doesn’t just assist but takes over tasks like writing code, booking travel,...
7 months ago
44
7 months ago
Imagine an AI tool that doesn’t just assist but takes over tasks like writing code, booking travel, or managing your schedule—all autonomously.
Calculated Risk
Monday Night Futures Tuesday: Pre-Market Data and Bloomberg futures S&P 500 are up 32 and DOW futures are up 225 (fair...
7 months ago
45
7 months ago
Tuesday: Pre-Market Data and Bloomberg futures S&P 500 are up 32 and DOW futures are up 225 (fair value).
Calculated Risk
1.73 million Total Housing Completions in 2024 including Manufactured Homes; Most Since 2006 Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: 1.73 million Total Housing Completions in 2024...
7 months ago
41
7 months ago
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: 1.73 million Total Housing Completions in 2024 including Manufactured Homes; Most Since 2006 A brief excerpt: Although total housing starts decreased 3.9% in 2024 compared to 2023, completions increased sharply...
Calculated Risk
AAR: Rail Carloads Down YoY in 2024, Intermodal Up From the Association of American Railroads (AAR) Rail Time Indicators. Graphs and excerpts...
7 months ago
38
7 months ago
From the Association of American Railroads (AAR) Rail Time Indicators. Graphs and excerpts reprinted with permission. For the full year 2024, total U.S. carloads were 11.34 million, down 2.9% (343,156 carloads) from 2023 and down 2.3% (265,491 carloads) from 2022. ... Carloads...
Citation Needed
No, Trump didn’t make $50 billion from his memecoin Journalists’ flawed math and ignorance of crypto markets turn tokens into fake fortunes
7 months ago
Calculated Risk
Housing Jan 20th Weekly Update: Inventory Up 1.2% Week-over-week, Up 24.8% Year-over-year Altos reports that active single-family inventory was up 1.2% week-over-week. Inventory always...
7 months ago
46
7 months ago
Altos reports that active single-family inventory was up 1.2% week-over-week. Inventory always declines seasonally in the Winter and usually bottoms in late January or February. If the previous week was the seasonal bottom, that would be very early in the year, but that has...
Calculated Risk
Sunday Night: Markets Closed in observance of Martin Luther King Jr. Day Weekend: Schedule for Week of January 19, 2025 US markets will be closed in observance of Martin...
7 months ago
43
7 months ago
Weekend: Schedule for Week of January 19, 2025 US markets will be closed in observance of Martin Luther King Jr. Day WTI futures at $77.88 per barrel and Brent at $80.79 per barrel. A year ago, WTI was at $74, and Brent was at $81 - so WTI oil prices are up about 5%...
Mazdak
OpenAI’s Ph.D.-Level Super Agents The AI landscape is evolving at breakneck speed, and OpenAI is leading the charge.
7 months ago
Calculated Risk
Hotels: Occupancy Rate Decreased 7.7% Year-over-year From STR: U.S. hotel results for week ending 11 January The U.S. hotel industry reported negative...
7 months ago
54
7 months ago
From STR: U.S. hotel results for week ending 11 January The U.S. hotel industry reported negative year-over-year comparisons, according to CoStar’s latest data through 11 January. ... 5-11 January 2025 (percentage change from comparable week in 2024): Occupancy: 49.2%...
Mazdak
Perplexity AI’s Bold Move to Merge with TikTok As the United States inches closer to a potential TikTok ban, Perplexity AI has emerged as a...
7 months ago
56
7 months ago
As the United States inches closer to a potential TikTok ban, Perplexity AI has emerged as a surprising yet intriguing bidder to merge with TikTok US.
Calculated Risk
Real Estate Newsletter Articles this Week: Housing Starts Down 3.9% in 2024 compared to 2023 At the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter this week: Click on graph for larger image. Housing...
7 months ago
51
7 months ago
At the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter this week: Click on graph for larger image. Housing Starts Increased to 1.499 million Annual Rate in December Housing Discussion with Altos Research's Mike Simonsen Lawler: Early Read on Existing Home Sales in December Part 1: Current...
The Diff
Longreads + Open Thread Skyscrapers, AI, Congestion Pricing, The Odyssey, History, Markets, Accounting, Loneliness, Slavery
7 months ago
59
7 months ago
Skyscrapers, AI, Congestion Pricing, The Odyssey, History, Markets, Accounting, Loneliness, Slavery
Calculated Risk
Schedule for Week of January 19, 2025 The key report this week is December Existing Home Sales. ----- Monday, January 20th ----- All US...
7 months ago
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7 months ago
The key report this week is December Existing Home Sales. ----- Monday, January 20th ----- All US markets will be closed in observance of Martin Luther King Jr. Day "Our lives begin to end the day we become silent about things that matter." Martin Luther King Jr. ----- Tuesday,...
Moneyness
Here’s why we tolerate fake check scams Source: Better Business Bureau The daily news is filled with personal stories about bad...
7 months ago
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7 months ago
Source: Better Business Bureau The daily news is filled with personal stories about bad experiences with banks. Here’s a recent example. In November 2024, a charity inadvertently accepted a fake check from a would-be donor. The charity's bank allowed the charity to deposit...
Calculated Risk
January 19th COVID Update: COVID in Wastewater Decreasing Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. For deaths, I'm...
7 months ago
227
7 months ago
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. For deaths, I'm currently using 4 weeks ago for "now", since the most recent three weeks will be revised significantly. Note: "Effective May 1, 2024, hospitals are no longer required to report...
Citation Needed
Issue 74 – Stop asking me questions like “where does the yield come from” Regulators and lawmakers eagerly prepare to abdicate any last traces of interest in the wellbeing of...
7 months ago
74
7 months ago
Regulators and lawmakers eagerly prepare to abdicate any last traces of interest in the wellbeing of everyday Americans as they suck up to the powerful billionaires who will soon be publicly calling the shots.
Musings on Markets
Data Update 2 for 2025: The Party Continued (for US Equities) In my last post, I noted that the US has extended its dominance of global equities in recent years,...
7 months ago
27
7 months ago
In my last post, I noted that the US has extended its dominance of global equities in recent years, increasing its share of market capitalization from 42% in at the start of 2023 to 44% at the start of 2024 to 49% at the start of 2025. That rise was driven by a surge in US equity...
Calculated Risk
Q4 GDP Tracking: 2.1% to 3.0% Range From BofA: Since our last weekly publication, our 4Q GDP tracking estimate has moved up...
7 months ago
52
7 months ago
From BofA: Since our last weekly publication, our 4Q GDP tracking estimate has moved up three-tenths to 2.1% q/q saar. [Jan 17th estimate] emphasis added From Goldman: Following this morning’s data, we boosted our Q4 GDP tracking estimate by 0.1pp to +2.6%...
Mazdak
Whatever Happens to TikTok, Big Tech is Coming for Its Millions of Creators TikTok, the platform that redefined short-form video and became a cultural phenomenon, is now facing...
7 months ago
45
7 months ago
TikTok, the platform that redefined short-form video and became a cultural phenomenon, is now facing an uncertain future in the United States.
Mazdak
ChatGPT’s Newest Feature Lets You Customize Its Personality OpenAI has announced an exciting update for ChatGPT users: the ability to customize the chatbot’s...
7 months ago
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7 months ago
OpenAI has announced an exciting update for ChatGPT users: the ability to customize the chatbot’s personality and interaction style.
Calculated Risk
Lawler: Early Read on Existing Home Sales in December From housing economist Tom Lawler: seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.15 million in December,...
7 months ago
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7 months ago
From housing economist Tom Lawler: seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.15 million in December, unchanged from November’s preliminary pace and up 7.0% from last December’s seasonally adjusted pace. Unadjusted sales should show a somewhat higher YOY % gain, reflecting this...
The Diff
Meme Markets Plus! Equity Comp, Squared; Venture Debt; 5%; Crypto Leverage; Closed-End Funds
7 months ago
Calculated Risk
Housing Starts Increased to 1.499 million Annual Rate in December Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Housing Starts Increased to 1.499 million...
7 months ago
49
7 months ago
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Housing Starts Increased to 1.499 million Annual Rate in December A brief excerpt: Total housing starts in December were above expectations and starts in October and November were revised up. Total starts were down 4.4% in...
Calculated Risk
Industrial Production Increased 0.9% in December Earlier from the Fed: Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization Industrial Production (IP)...
7 months ago
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7 months ago
Earlier from the Fed: Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization Industrial Production (IP) increased 0.9 percent in December after moving up 0.2 percent in November. In December, gains in the output of aircraft and parts contributed 0.2 percentage point to total IP growth...
Calculated Risk
Housing Starts Increased to 1.499 million Annual Rate in December From the Census Bureau: Permits, Starts and Completions Housing Starts: seasonally adjusted annual...
7 months ago
42
7 months ago
From the Census Bureau: Permits, Starts and Completions Housing Starts: seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,499,000. This is 15.8 percent above the revised November estimate of 1,294,000, but is 4.4 percent below the December 2023 rate of 1,568,000. Single-family housing starts...
Mazdak
Biden Not to Block TikTok, Apple's Credit Card Dilemma, Google Says No to EU Rules, ... The Biden administration has decided not to enforce the law that could force TikTok to go dark in...
7 months ago
Mazdak
The Future of TikTok in the U.S.: What Happens on January 19? The fate of TikTok in the United States hangs in the balance as we approach January 19.
7 months ago
Calculated Risk
Friday: Housing Starts, Industrial Production Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. Housing Starts...
7 months ago
59
7 months ago
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. Housing Starts for December. The consensus is for 1.315 million SAAR, up from 1.289 million SAAR. Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization for December. The consensus is for a 0.3% increase...
Calculated Risk
Housing Discussion with Altos Research's Mike Simonsen Here is a YouTube video of a discussion with Mike Simonsen. Enjoy.
7 months ago
Mazdak
Can Google’s Gemini Overtake ChatGPT in the AI Race? Google’s Gemini, the tech giant’s flagship AI chatbot, has been making headlines lately.
7 months ago
The Diff
Two Models of Forward-Deployed Engineers Plus! Corporate VC; The New AI Model; The New AI Model, Continued; The Long But Volatile March;...
7 months ago
Mazdak
Google Challenges EU’s New Disinformation Rules In a bold move that could reshape the future of content moderation, Google has informed the European...
7 months ago
45
7 months ago
In a bold move that could reshape the future of content moderation, Google has informed the European Union it will not incorporate fact-checking into its search results or YouTube rankings, despite the requirements of the EU’s new Disinformation Code of Practice.
Calculated Risk
NAHB: Builder Confidence "Edges Up" in January The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) reported the housing market index (HMI) was at 47,...
7 months ago
47
7 months ago
The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) reported the housing market index (HMI) was at 47, up from 46 last month. Any number below 50 indicates that more builders view sales conditions as poor than good. Builder Confidence Edges Up Even as Market Risk Concerns...
Calculated Risk
Retail Sales Increased 0.4% in December On a monthly basis, retail sales increased 0.4% from November to December (seasonally adjusted), and...
7 months ago
33
7 months ago
On a monthly basis, retail sales increased 0.4% from November to December (seasonally adjusted), and sales were up 3.9 percent from December 2023. report: Advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for December 2024, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and...
Calculated Risk
Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Increase to 217,000 The DOL reported: seasonally adjusted initial claims was 217,000, an increase of 14,000 from the...
7 months ago
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7 months ago
The DOL reported: seasonally adjusted initial claims was 217,000, an increase of 14,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 2,000 from 201,000 to 203,000. The 4-week moving average was 212,750, a decrease of 750 from the previous...
Mazdak
Apple’s Credit Card Shakeup: A Look at the Future of Fintech Partnerships In 2019, Apple and Goldman Sachs partnered to launch the Apple Card, a bold move that combined...
7 months ago
56
7 months ago
In 2019, Apple and Goldman Sachs partnered to launch the Apple Card, a bold move that combined technology and finance to offer a seamless credit experience.
Calculated Risk
Thursday: Retail Sales, Unemployment Claims, Philly Fed Mfg, Homebuider Survey Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. initial weekly...
7 months ago
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7 months ago
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for a increase to 215 thousand from 201 thousand last week. Retail sales for December is scheduled to be released.  The...
Mazdak
The $50 Billion TikTok Dilemma: ByteDance’s Next Move in the U.S. In the world of social media, few platforms have experienced a meteoric rise like TikTok.
7 months ago
Bits about Money
Bits about Money yearly recap and plans What we covered in 2024, what are plans are in 2025, and a solicitation for supporting memberships.
7 months ago
Calculated Risk
Fed's Beige Book: "Economic activity increased slightly to moderately" Fed's Beige Book Economic activity increased slightly to moderately across the twelve Federal...
7 months ago
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7 months ago
Fed's Beige Book Economic activity increased slightly to moderately across the twelve Federal Reserve Districts in late November and December. Consumer spending moved up moderately, with most Districts reporting strong holiday sales that exceeded expectations. Vehicle sales grew...
Mazdak
Bluesky’s Next Big Move: Introducing the Photo-Sharing App Flashes A new contender for the future of decentralized social media
7 months ago
Calculated Risk
Part 2: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-January 2025 Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Part 2: Current State of the Housing Market;...
7 months ago
58
7 months ago
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Part 2: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-January 2025 A brief excerpt: Yesterday, in Part 1: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-January 2025 I reviewed home inventory, housing starts...
Mazdak
Workspace AI Features Now Included for Free Google has just dropped a major announcement that’s set to reshape how we use AI-powered...
7 months ago
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7 months ago
Google has just dropped a major announcement that’s set to reshape how we use AI-powered productivity tools.