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Mazdak
OpenAI vs. DeepSeek: The AI Arms Race Heats Up The battle for artificial intelligence supremacy has taken a new turn, and it’s raising major...
7 months ago
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7 months ago
The battle for artificial intelligence supremacy has taken a new turn, and it’s raising major concerns about intellectual property, competition, and the future of AI development.
Calculated Risk
MBA: Mortgage Applications Decreased in Weekly Survey From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly Survey Mortgage applications...
7 months ago
39
7 months ago
From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly Survey Mortgage applications decreased 2.0 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending January 24, 2025....
Calculated Risk
Wednesday: FOMC Statement Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. mortgage...
7 months ago
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7 months ago
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. mortgage purchase applications index. FOMC Meeting Announcement. No change to policy is expected. Fed Chair Jerome Powell holds a press briefing following the FOMC announcement.
oftwominds-Charles...
Welcome to the DeepSeek Disruption (DSD) In summary: bloated headcounts, no new sources of revenue from AI, and limitless content with no...
7 months ago
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7 months ago
In summary: bloated headcounts, no new sources of revenue from AI, and limitless content with no scarcity value. Welcome to the DSD: DeepSeek Disruption. I've been fruitfully engaged in a lively dialog with readers on my Substack regarding my post yesterday Is DeepSeek a...
Musings on Markets
Data Update 4 for 2025: Interest Rates, Inflation and Central Banks! It was an interesting year for interest rates in the United States, one in which we got more...
7 months ago
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7 months ago
It was an interesting year for interest rates in the United States, one in which we got more evidence on the limited power that central banks have to alter the trajectory of market interest rates. We started 2024 with the consensus wisdom that rates would drop during the year,...
Calculated Risk
MBA: Delinquency Rates for Commercial Properties Increased in Fourth-Quarter 2024 From the MBA: Delinquency Rates for Commercial Properties Increased in Fourth-Quarter 2024...
7 months ago
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7 months ago
From the MBA: Delinquency Rates for Commercial Properties Increased in Fourth-Quarter 2024 Delinquency rates for mortgages backed by commercial properties increased during the fourth quarter of 2024, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association's (MBA) latest commercial real...
The Diff
There is an "AI Factor," and It's Worth Hedging Plus! Sweeteners; The American Difference; AI Experiments; Media Relations; Sanctions are Hard,...
7 months ago
Calculated Risk
Newsletter: Case-Shiller: National House Price Index Up 3.8% year-over-year in November Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Case-Shiller: National House Price Index Up...
7 months ago
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7 months ago
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Case-Shiller: National House Price Index Up 3.8% year-over-year in November S&P/Case-Shiller released the monthly Home Price Indices for November ("November" is a 3-month average of September, October and November closing...
Calculated Risk
Case-Shiller: National House Price Index Up 3.8% year-over-year in November S&P/Case-Shiller released the monthly Home Price Indices for November ("November" is a 3-month...
7 months ago
38
7 months ago
S&P/Case-Shiller released the monthly Home Price Indices for November ("November" is a 3-month average of September, October and November closing prices). S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Index Records 3.8% Annual Gain in November 2024 The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home...
Calculated Risk
Tuesday: Durable Goods, Case-Shiller House Prices From Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily: Mortgage Rates Only Moderately Lower After Tech...
7 months ago
35
7 months ago
From Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily: Mortgage Rates Only Moderately Lower After Tech Rout Even though there is some uncertainty about the near-term Fed rate outlook and even though we have a Fed meeting coming up on Wednesday, today was all about conventional wisdom for...
Citation Needed
Trump’s Project 2025 ghostwriters Exposed PDF metadata from the Office of Personnel Management reveals that Heritage Foundation-linked...
7 months ago
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7 months ago
Exposed PDF metadata from the Office of Personnel Management reveals that Heritage Foundation-linked Trump devotees are writing policies at federal agencies.
Calculated Risk
Hotels: Occupancy Rate Increased 6.7% Year-over-year From STR: U.S. hotel results for week ending 18 January On the positive side of the MLK Day calendar...
7 months ago
38
7 months ago
From STR: U.S. hotel results for week ending 18 January On the positive side of the MLK Day calendar shift, the U.S. hotel industry reported positive year-over-year comparisons, according to CoStar’s latest data through 18 January. ... 12-18 January 2025 (percentage change from...
Calculated Risk
Newsletter: New Home Sales Increase to 698,000 Annual Rate in December Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: New Home Sales Increase to 698,000 Annual Rate...
7 months ago
31
7 months ago
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: New Home Sales Increase to 698,000 Annual Rate in December Brief excerpt: The Census Bureau reported New Home Sales in December were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 698 thousand. The previous three months were...
The Diff
The New National Champions Plus! Open Source AI; Meme Private Credit; Alpha Generators as an Asset Class; Going Hostile;...
7 months ago
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7 months ago
Plus! Open Source AI; Meme Private Credit; Alpha Generators as an Asset Class; Going Hostile; Defense
Calculated Risk
New Home Sales Increase to 698,000 Annual Rate in December The Census Bureau reports New Home Sales in December were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate...
7 months ago
40
7 months ago
The Census Bureau reports New Home Sales in December were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 698 thousand. Sales of new single-family houses in December 2024 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 698,000, according to estimates released jointly today by the...
Calculated Risk
Housing Jan 27th Weekly Update: Inventory Up 0.7% Week-over-week, Up 26.5% Year-over-year Altos reports that active single-family inventory was up 1.2% week-over-week. Inventory always...
7 months ago
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7 months ago
Altos reports that active single-family inventory was up 1.2% week-over-week. Inventory always declines seasonally in the Winter and usually bottoms in late January or February. If two weeks ago was the seasonal bottom, that would be very early in the year, but that has...
oftwominds-Charles...
Is DeepSeek a Sputnik Moment? I'm not sure that "software will eat the world," but it could consume the stock market bubble in a...
7 months ago
25
7 months ago
I'm not sure that "software will eat the world," but it could consume the stock market bubble in a single gulp. Is DeepSeek a Sputnik Moment? Let's break it down. The Soviet Union's October 1957 launch of the world's first artificial satellite, Sputnik 1, stunned the U.S.,...
Calculated Risk
Monday: New Home Sales Weekend: Schedule for Week of January 26, 2025 Chicago Fed National Activity Index for December. ...
7 months ago
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7 months ago
Weekend: Schedule for Week of January 26, 2025 Chicago Fed National Activity Index for December. This is a composite index of other data. New Home Sales for December from the Census Bureau. The consensus is for 670 thousand SAAR, up from 664 thousand in November. Dallas Fed...
Musings on Markets
Data Update 3 for 2025: The times they are a'changin'! In my first two data posts for 2025, I looked at the strong year that US equities had in 2024, but a...
7 months ago
31
7 months ago
In my first two data posts for 2025, I looked at the strong year that US equities had in 2024, but a very good year for the overall market does not always translate into equivalent returns across segments of the market. In this post, I will remain focused on US equities, but I...
Calculated Risk
FOMC Preview: No Change to Policy Most analysts expect no change to FOMC policy at the meeting this week, keeping the target range at...
7 months ago
53
7 months ago
Most analysts expect no change to FOMC policy at the meeting this week, keeping the target range at 4 1/4 to 4 1/2 percent.    Market participants currently expect the FOMC to be on hold at the January, March and May meetings, with the next rate cut in May. From BofA: We...
Calculated Risk
January 25th COVID Update: COVID in Wastewater Decreasing Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. SPECIAL NOTE:...
7 months ago
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7 months ago
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. SPECIAL NOTE: The CDC has stopped releasing health data (hopefully temporarily). For deaths, I'm currently using 4 weeks ago for "now", since the most recent three weeks will be revised...
Mazdak
How DeepSeek, a Chinese AI Startup, is Challenging the Titans of Silicon Valley In the ever-evolving world of artificial intelligence, the stage has been dominated by Western...
7 months ago
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7 months ago
In the ever-evolving world of artificial intelligence, the stage has been dominated by Western giants like OpenAI, Google, and Meta.
Calculated Risk
Real Estate Newsletter Articles this Week: Existing-Home Sales Increased to 4.24 million SAAR in... At the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter this week: Click on graph for larger image. NAR:...
7 months ago
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7 months ago
At the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter this week: Click on graph for larger image. NAR: Existing-Home Sales Increased to 4.24 million SAAR in December NMHC on Apartments: "Looser market conditions for the tenth consecutive quarter 1.73 million Total Housing Completions in...
The Diff
Longreads + Open Thread Tech Right, 10 bits, Smart Screens, AI, Gambling, Memes, Soviet Magic
7 months ago
Calculated Risk
Schedule for Week of January 26, 2025 The key reports scheduled for this week are the advance estimate of Q4 GDP, December New Home sales,...
7 months ago
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7 months ago
The key reports scheduled for this week are the advance estimate of Q4 GDP, December New Home sales, December Personal Income and Outlays and November Case-Shiller house prices. ----- Monday, January 27th ----- 8:30 AM: Chicago Fed National Activity Index for December. This is...
Moneyness
Is it better to bribe Trump by purchasing his memecoin or his stock? Noah Smith writes a provocative article about memecoins as a novel mechanism for bribery payments. A...
7 months ago
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7 months ago
Noah Smith writes a provocative article about memecoins as a novel mechanism for bribery payments. A foreign dignitary looking to gain influence over Donald Trump would like to pay him a giant bribe, but doing so directly is prohibited by all sort of laws. Luckily, Trump has just...
Calculated Risk
Q4 GDP Tracking: 2.3% to 3.0% Range From BofA: Since our last weekly publication, our 4Q GDP tracking estimate has moved up two-tenths...
7 months ago
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7 months ago
From BofA: Since our last weekly publication, our 4Q GDP tracking estimate has moved up two-tenths to 2.3% q/q saar. [Jan 24th estimate] emphasis added From Goldman: We left our Q4 GDP tracking and domestic final sales estimates unchanged, each at +2.6% (quarter-over-quarter...
Bits about Money
A very Chicago gamble Chicago and Bally's have teamed up in an investment offering.
7 months ago
Calculated Risk
January Vehicle Forecast: Sales Decline to 15.6 million SAAR, Up 4% YoY From WardsAuto: Some Letdown but January U.S. Light-Vehicle Sales Continue Q4-2024's Growth (pay...
7 months ago
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7 months ago
From WardsAuto: Some Letdown but January U.S. Light-Vehicle Sales Continue Q4-2024's Growth (pay content).  Brief excerpt: While demand in the middle of the month was negatively impacted by extreme weather conditions across most of the country, with a week remaining in January...
Citation Needed
Issue 75 – Absolutely preposterous Trump horrifies even some of his crypto-steeped fans by launching a memecoin before his...
7 months ago
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7 months ago
Trump horrifies even some of his crypto-steeped fans by launching a memecoin before his inauguration, and a flurry of activity from the new administration signals what’s in store for the crypto world in the next four years.
The Diff
Venture Global as a Well-Structured Trade Plus! Agents; Capital Returns; Creator Underwriting; Crypto Plays; Airlines
7 months ago
Calculated Risk
Newsletter: Existing-Home Sales Increased to 4.24 million SAAR in December Today, in the CalculatedRisk Real Estate Newsletter: NAR: Existing-Home Sales Increased to 4.24...
7 months ago
38
7 months ago
Today, in the CalculatedRisk Real Estate Newsletter: NAR: Existing-Home Sales Increased to 4.24 million SAAR in December Sales in December (4.24 million SAAR) were up 2.2% from the previous month and were 9.3% above the December 2023 sales rate. This was the third consecutive...
Calculated Risk
NAR: Existing-Home Sales Increased to 4.24 million SAAR in December From the NAR: Existing-Home Sales Ascended 2.2% in December Existing-home sales climbed in December,...
7 months ago
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7 months ago
From the NAR: Existing-Home Sales Ascended 2.2% in December Existing-home sales climbed in December, according to the National Association of Realtors®. Sales advanced in three major U.S. regions and slipped in the Midwest. Year-over-year, sales accelerated in all four...
Calculated Risk
LA Ports: Inbound Traffic Increased Sharply Year-over-year in December Container traffic gives us an idea about the volume of goods being exported and imported - and...
7 months ago
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7 months ago
Container traffic gives us an idea about the volume of goods being exported and imported - and usually some hints about the trade report since LA area ports handle about 40% of the nation's container port traffic. Los Angeles and Long Beach in TEUs (TEUs: 20-foot equivalent units...
Calculated Risk
Friday: Existing Home Sales Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. Existing Home...
7 months ago
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7 months ago
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. Existing Home Sales for December from the National Association of Realtors (NAR). The consensus is for 4.20 million SAAR, up from 4.15 million. University of Michigan's Consumer sentiment index...
Calculated Risk
Realtor.com Reports Active Inventory Up 25.1% YoY What this means: On a weekly basis, Realtor.com reports the year-over-year change in active...
7 months ago
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7 months ago
What this means: On a weekly basis, Realtor.com reports the year-over-year change in active inventory and new listings. On a monthly basis, they report total inventory. For December, Realtor.com reported inventory was up 22.0% YoY, but still down 15.7% compared to the 2017 to...
oftwominds-Charles...
The Power of Our Behavior Why is any reduction in consumption posed in terms of unbearable sacrifice, when no sacrifices are...
7 months ago
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7 months ago
Why is any reduction in consumption posed in terms of unbearable sacrifice, when no sacrifices are necessary to consequentially reduce consumption? When we think of the word power, we associate it with external forces: energy, technology, the government, etc. But our own...
Mazdak
OpenAI Launches Operator: The AI Agent That Works Autonomously (Why this could be the start of a new era for AI tools)
7 months ago
Calculated Risk
4th Look at Local Housing Markets in December Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: 4th Look at Local Housing Markets in...
7 months ago
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7 months ago
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: 4th Look at Local Housing Markets in December A brief excerpt: Here are a few more local markets before the NAR releases December Existing Home sales tomorrow, Friday, January 24th at 10:00 AM. This will be the 3rd...
Calculated Risk
ICE: Mortgage Delinquency Rate Increased 4% Year-over-year in December From ICE: ICE First Look at Mortgage Performance: Delinquencies Ended 2024 on a Strong Note Despite...
7 months ago
25
7 months ago
From ICE: ICE First Look at Mortgage Performance: Delinquencies Ended 2024 on a Strong Note Despite Remaining Near a Three-Year High • The national delinquency rate eased 2 basis points (bps) to 3.72% in December, but rose 4.0% year over year – the seventh consecutive annual...
The Diff
Planting a Flag Plus! Buildouts; Growth and Churn; Targeting Tweaks; DeepSeek; European Banks
7 months ago
Calculated Risk
Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Increase to 223,000 The DOL reported: seasonally adjusted initial claims was 223,000, an increase of 6,000 from the...
7 months ago
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7 months ago
The DOL reported: seasonally adjusted initial claims was 223,000, an increase of 6,000 from the previous week's unrevised level of 217,000. The 4-week moving average was 213,500, an increase of 750 from the previous week's unrevised average of 212,750. emphasis added The...
Mazdak
LinkedIn Faces Lawsuit Over Alleged Data Use for AI Training In a rapidly evolving digital landscape, privacy and data usage are hot topics—and LinkedIn,...
7 months ago
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7 months ago
In a rapidly evolving digital landscape, privacy and data usage are hot topics—and LinkedIn, Microsoft’s business-focused social media platform, is at the center of the latest debate.
Calculated Risk
Thursday: Unemployment Claims Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. initial weekly...
7 months ago
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7 months ago
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for a increase to 215 thousand from 201 thousand last week. Kansas City Fed manufacturing survey for January.
Calculated Risk
NMHC on Apartments: "Looser market conditions for the tenth consecutive quarter" Today, in the CalculatedRisk Real Estate Newsletter: NMHC on Apartments: "Looser market conditions...
7 months ago
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7 months ago
Today, in the CalculatedRisk Real Estate Newsletter: NMHC on Apartments: "Looser market conditions for the tenth consecutive quarter" From the NMHC: Apartment Market Experiences Loosening Conditions, Decreased Deal Flow and Less Available Financing to Start the New Year Apartment...
Calculated Risk
AIA: Architecture Billings "End the year on a weak note" Note: This index is a leading indicator primarily for new Commercial Real Estate (CRE)...
7 months ago
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7 months ago
Note: This index is a leading indicator primarily for new Commercial Real Estate (CRE) investment. ABI December 2024: Business conditions end the year on a weak note The AIA/Deltek Architecture Billings Index (ABI) score fell to 44.1 for the month as the share of firms reporting...
Calculated Risk
MBA: Mortgage Applications Increased in Weekly Survey From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Increase in Latest MBA Weekly Survey Mortgage applications...
7 months ago
55
7 months ago
From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Increase in Latest MBA Weekly Survey Mortgage applications increased 0.1 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending January 17,...
Moneyness
Canadian guilt, Russian oil We Canadians are overwhelmingly pro-Ukraine and anti-Putin, so when the CBC published an expose last...
7 months ago
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7 months ago
We Canadians are overwhelmingly pro-Ukraine and anti-Putin, so when the CBC published an expose last week about "banned Russian oil" sneaking into Canada, it was read in despair by most of us. What an awful failure of Canadian sanctions policy.  As with a lot of sanctions...
Mazdak
Meta's Oakley Smart Glasses, TikTok's Revenue Nearly Doubled YouTube's Last Year, Hidden Hashtags on... “What if Elon Musk or Larry Ellison bought TikTok?”
7 months ago
Calculated Risk
Wednesday: Architecture Billings Index From Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily: Mortgage Rates Unimpacted by New Executive Orders Bonds...
7 months ago
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7 months ago
From Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily: Mortgage Rates Unimpacted by New Executive Orders Bonds were thus able to hold onto the gains from last week with some additional improvement today. The average mortgage lender wasn't eager to adjust rates, however, with the top tier...