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Calculated Risk
BLS: CPI Increased 0.5% in January; Core CPI increased 0.4% From the BLS: The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.5 percent on a...
6 months ago
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6 months ago
From the BLS: The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.5 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis in January, after rising 0.4 percent in December, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index...
Calculated Risk
MBA: Mortgage Refinance Applications Increased in Weekly Survey; Purchase Applications Declined From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Increase in Latest MBA Weekly Survey Mortgage applications...
6 months ago
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6 months ago
From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Increase in Latest MBA Weekly Survey Mortgage applications increased 2.3 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending February 7,...
Mazdak
YouTube’s AI Evolution: What’s Coming in 2025? YouTube is gearing up for a massive AI-driven transformation.
6 months ago
Calculated Risk
Wednesday: CPI Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. mortgage...
6 months ago
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6 months ago
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. mortgage purchase applications index. Consumer Price Index for January from the BLS. The consensus is for 0.3% increase in CPI, and a 0.3% increase in core CPI.  The consensus is for CPI to be up...
The Rational Walk
Primary Sources Consulting primary sources represents table stakes for intelligent investors and responsible...
6 months ago
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6 months ago
Consulting primary sources represents table stakes for intelligent investors and responsible citizens.
Calculated Risk
CPI Preview The Consumer Price Index for January is scheduled to be released tomorrow. The consensus is for a...
6 months ago
36
6 months ago
The Consumer Price Index for January is scheduled to be released tomorrow. The consensus is for a 0.3% increase in CPI, and a 0.3% increase in core CPI. The consensus is for CPI to be up 2.9% year-over-year and core CPI to be up 3.2% YoY. We expect a 0.34% increase in January...
The Diff
Globalization, Regulatory Arbitrage, and Reshoring-on-Paper Plus! Antitrust Enforcement; Full-Stack; Decentralizing; Spoiler Bids; Platform Management
6 months ago
Calculated Risk
2nd Look at Local Housing Markets in January Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: 2nd Look at Local Housing Markets in January A...
6 months ago
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6 months ago
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: 2nd Look at Local Housing Markets in January A brief excerpt: NOTE: The tables for active listings, new listings and closed sales all include a comparison to January 2019 for each local market (some 2019 data is not...
Calculated Risk
Semiannual Monetary Policy Report to the Congress This testimony will be live here at 10:00 AM ET and also on C-SPAN 3. Report here. An excerpt: The...
6 months ago
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6 months ago
This testimony will be live here at 10:00 AM ET and also on C-SPAN 3. Report here. An excerpt: The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is firmly committed to fulfilling its statutory mandate from the Congress of promoting maximum employment, stable prices, and moderate...
Moneyness
The end of El Salvador's bitcoin payments experiment Back in 2021, El Salvador became the first country in the world to require its citizens to use...
6 months ago
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6 months ago
Back in 2021, El Salvador became the first country in the world to require its citizens to use bitcoin for payments. Last month, four years later, it notched another record: it became the first country to rescind bitcoin's status as required tender. This backtracking was the...
Calculated Risk
Tuesday: Fed Chair Powell's Semiannual Monetary Policy Report to Congress From Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily: Mortgage Rates Microscopically Lower to Start New...
6 months ago
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6 months ago
From Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily: Mortgage Rates Microscopically Lower to Start New Week Mortgage rates have been on a vacation from volatility since January 16th when they fell back toward 7% after hitting the highest levels since May 2024. Top tier 30yr fixed rates...
Mazdak
Elon Musk’s $97.4 Billion Bid for OpenAI Elon Musk has once again made headlines with a massive $97.4 billion bid to take control of OpenAI,...
6 months ago
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6 months ago
Elon Musk has once again made headlines with a massive $97.4 billion bid to take control of OpenAI, the company behind ChatGPT.
Calculated Risk
By Request: Public and Private Sector Payroll Jobs During Presidential Terms Note: I've received a number of requests to post this again at the conclusion of President Biden's...
6 months ago
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6 months ago
Note: I've received a number of requests to post this again at the conclusion of President Biden's term.  So here is another update of tracking employment during Presidential terms.  We frequently use Presidential terms as time markers - we could use Speaker of the House, Fed...
oftwominds-Charles...
Corporations as Modern-Day Warlords Read carefully between the lines, for all this will come to pass. Let me start by offering an...
6 months ago
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6 months ago
Read carefully between the lines, for all this will come to pass. Let me start by offering an apology to all those whose blood pressure will skyrocket upon reading this thought experiment. As we all know, science--the real thing, not "science"--advances via informed...
Calculated Risk
Part 1: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-February 2025 Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Part 1: Current State of the Housing Market;...
6 months ago
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6 months ago
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Part 1: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-February 2025 A brief excerpt: This 2-part overview for mid-February provides a snapshot of the current housing market. tells the tale! I’m watching...
The Diff
AI Assistants Will Be Great (Especially for the Biggest Companies) Plus! Short Selling; Crypto Treasury Gresham's Law; The Joy of Higher Rates; Labor Substitution;...
6 months ago
Calculated Risk
Housing Feb 10th Weekly Update: Inventory Down 0.4% Week-over-week, Up 27.8% Year-over-year Altos reports that active single-family inventory was down 0.4% week-over-week. Inventory always...
6 months ago
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6 months ago
Altos reports that active single-family inventory was down 0.4% week-over-week. Inventory always declines seasonally in the Winter and usually bottoms in late January or February. Inventory is now up 1.3% from the bottom four weeks ago. Inventory has been little changed over...
Commoncog
The Story of Samsung How Samsung became the largest chaebol in South Korea, and gained so much power over the country’s...
6 months ago
50
6 months ago
How Samsung became the largest chaebol in South Korea, and gained so much power over the country’s economy.
Calculated Risk
Sunday Night Futures Weekend: Schedule for Week of February 9, 2025 Pre-Market Data and Bloomberg futures S&P 500 are up...
6 months ago
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6 months ago
Weekend: Schedule for Week of February 9, 2025 Pre-Market Data and Bloomberg futures S&P 500 are up 18 and DOW futures are up 88 (fair value). WTI futures at $71.00 per barrel and Brent at $74.66 per barrel. A year ago, WTI was at $77, and Brent was at $83 - so WTI oil prices...
Calculated Risk
Leading Index for Commercial Real Estate Increased 6% in January From Dodge Data Analytics: Dodge Momentum Index Grows 6% in January The Dodge Momentum Index (DMI),...
6 months ago
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6 months ago
From Dodge Data Analytics: Dodge Momentum Index Grows 6% in January The Dodge Momentum Index (DMI), issued by Dodge Construction Network, grew 5.6% in January to 225.7 (2000=100) from the revised December reading of 213.6. Over the month, commercial planning increased 4.2% while...
Calculated Risk
Real Estate Newsletter Articles this Week: Mortgage Delinquencies Increased Slightly in Q4 2024 At the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter this week: Click on graph for larger image. MBA:...
6 months ago
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6 months ago
At the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter this week: Click on graph for larger image. MBA: Mortgage Delinquencies Increased Slightly in Q4 2024 Fannie and Freddie: Single Family Serious Delinquency Rates Increased in December Lawler: Revisions Almost Eliminate...
The Diff
Longreads + Open Thread VC, Personal Finance, Careers, Hedge Funds, Hiring, Investing, Coase, Gates
6 months ago
Musings on Markets
Data Update 6 for 2025: From Macro to Micro - The Hurdle Rate Question! In the first five posts, I have looked at the macro numbers that drive global markets, from interest...
6 months ago
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6 months ago
In the first five posts, I have looked at the macro numbers that drive global markets, from interest rates to risk premiums, but it is not my preferred habitat. I spend most of my time in the far less rarefied air of corporate finance and valuation, where businesses try to decide...
Calculated Risk
Schedule for Week of February 9, 2025 The key reports this week are January CPI and Retail sales. ----- Monday, February 10th ----- No...
6 months ago
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6 months ago
The key reports this week are January CPI and Retail sales. ----- Monday, February 10th ----- No major economic releases scheduled. ----- Tuesday, February 11th ----- 6:00 AM: NFIB Small Business Optimism Index for January. Testimony, Fed Chair Jerome Powell, Semiannual...
Calculated Risk
February 7th COVID Update: COVID in Wastewater Increasing Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. For deaths, I'm...
6 months ago
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6 months ago
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. For deaths, I'm currently using 4 weeks ago for "now", since the most recent three weeks will be revised significantly. Note: "Effective May 1, 2024, hospitals are no longer required to report...
Calculated Risk
Wholesale Used Car Prices Increased in January; Up 0.8% Year-over-year From Manheim Consulting today: Wholesale Used-Vehicle Prices Increased in January Wholesale...
6 months ago
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6 months ago
From Manheim Consulting today: Wholesale Used-Vehicle Prices Increased in January Wholesale used-vehicle prices (on a mix, mileage, and seasonally adjusted basis) moved 0.4% higher in January compared to December, causing the Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index (MUVVI) to increase...
Calculated Risk
Lawler: Revisions Almost Eliminate Household/Establishment Survey Employment Growth Gap Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Lawler: Revisions Almost Eliminate...
6 months ago
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6 months ago
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Lawler: Revisions Almost Eliminate Household/Establishment Survey Employment Growth Gap A brief excerpt: From housing economist Tom Lawler: Revisions Almost Eliminate Household/Establishment Survey Employment Growth Gap There...
Calculated Risk
1st Look at Local Housing Markets in January Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: 1st Look at Local Housing Markets in January A...
6 months ago
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6 months ago
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: 1st Look at Local Housing Markets in January A brief excerpt: NOTE: The tables for active listings, new listings and closed sales all include a comparison to January 2019 for each local market (some 2019 data is not...
The Diff
De-Risking The 11-Figure Bets Plus! Thematic ETFs; Event-Driven Ads; Lagging Demand; Implementation; Labor Price Discrimination
6 months ago
Calculated Risk
Comments on January Employment Report The headline jobs number in the January employment report was below expectations, however, November...
6 months ago
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6 months ago
The headline jobs number in the January employment report was below expectations, however, November and December payrolls were revised up by 100,000 combined.   The participation rate and the employment population ratio increased, and the unemployment rate decreased to...
Calculated Risk
January Employment Report: 143 thousand Jobs, 4.0% Unemployment Rate From the BLS: Employment Situation Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 143,000 in January, and...
6 months ago
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6 months ago
From the BLS: Employment Situation Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 143,000 in January, and the unemployment rate edged down to 4.0 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Job gains occurred in health care, retail trade, and social assistance....
Calculated Risk
Friday: Employment Report Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. Employment...
6 months ago
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6 months ago
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. Employment Report for December.   The consensus is for 170,000 jobs added, and for the unemployment rate to be unchanged at 4.1%. University of Michigan's Consumer sentiment index (Preliminary for...
Calculated Risk
Predicting the Next Recession Over a decade ago, in 2013, I wrote a post "Predicting the Next Recession. That post was in...
6 months ago
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6 months ago
Over a decade ago, in 2013, I wrote a post "Predicting the Next Recession. That post was in response to several recession forecasts (that were incorrect). • "An exogenous event such as a pandemic, significant military conflict, disruption of energy supplies for any reason, a...
Mazdak
The 5-Step Blueprint to Achieve Financial Independence Imagine waking up every morning with the freedom to choose what you want to do—not because you have...
6 months ago
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6 months ago
Imagine waking up every morning with the freedom to choose what you want to do—not because you have to work for money, but because you want to.
Musings on Markets
Data Update 5 for 2025: It's a small world, after all! If the title of this post sounds familiar, it is because is one of Disney’s most iconic rides, one...
6 months ago
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6 months ago
If the title of this post sounds familiar, it is because is one of Disney’s most iconic rides, one that I have taken hundreds of times, first with my own children and more recently, with my grandchildren. It is a mainstay of every Disney theme park, from the original Disneyland...
Calculated Risk
January Employment Preview On Friday at 8:30 AM ET, the BLS will release the employment report for January. The consensus is...
6 months ago
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6 months ago
On Friday at 8:30 AM ET, the BLS will release the employment report for January. The consensus is for 170,000 jobs added, and for the unemployment rate to be unchanged at 4.1%. IMPORTANT NOTE: For the household survey, new population controls will be used - and this will boost...
oftwominds-Charles...
The Crises Yet to Come "Controlling the narrative" to justify destabilizing asymmetries won't change the consequences. ...
6 months ago
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6 months ago
"Controlling the narrative" to justify destabilizing asymmetries won't change the consequences. That the Trump Reformation / Counter-Reformation is disrupting various nodes of the status quo is viewed as an existential crise by many. The choice between Reformation /...
Calculated Risk
MBA: Mortgage Delinquencies Increased Slightly in Q4 2024 Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: MBA: Mortgage Delinquencies Increased Slightly...
6 months ago
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6 months ago
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: MBA: Mortgage Delinquencies Increased Slightly in Q4 2024 A brief excerpt: From the MBA: Mortgage Delinquencies Increase in the Fourth Quarter of 2024 The delinquency rate for mortgage loans on one-to-four-unit residential...
Calculated Risk
CoreLogic: US Home Prices Increased 3.4% Year-over-year in December Notes: This CoreLogic House Price Index report is for December. The recent Case-Shiller index...
6 months ago
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6 months ago
Notes: This CoreLogic House Price Index report is for December. The recent Case-Shiller index release was for November. The CoreLogic HPI is a three-month weighted average and is not seasonally adjusted (NSA). CoreLogic: Home Price Growth Ticks Up Slightly in December • The...
Calculated Risk
Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Increase to 219,000 The DOL reported: seasonally adjusted initial claims was 219,000, an increase of 11,000 from the...
6 months ago
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6 months ago
The DOL reported: seasonally adjusted initial claims was 219,000, an increase of 11,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 1,000 from 207,000 to 208,000. The 4-week moving average was 216,750, an increase of 4,000 from the...
The Diff
Short-Term Discretionary Traders Are Unusually Automatable Plus! Dimensions of Competition; Jurisdiction; Streaming Fragmentation; Diversification; Twitter...
6 months ago
Calculated Risk
Thursday: Unemployment Claims Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. initial weekly...
6 months ago
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6 months ago
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for a increase to 214 thousand from 207 thousand last week.
Mazdak
DeepSeek Ban in Australian, Google Reverses Stance on AI Weaponization, ... 1.
6 months ago
Citation Needed
Issue 76 – Tripartisan legislation Crypto exchanges face legal troubles, and Trump’s crypto empire grows as regulations are slashed and...
6 months ago
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6 months ago
Crypto exchanges face legal troubles, and Trump’s crypto empire grows as regulations are slashed and enforcement is sidelined.
Calculated Risk
The Changing Mix of Light Vehicle Sales An update: The first graph below shows the mix of sales since 1976 (Blue is cars, Red is light...
6 months ago
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6 months ago
An update: The first graph below shows the mix of sales since 1976 (Blue is cars, Red is light trucks and SUVs) through January 2025. Click on graph for larger image. Over time the mix has changed toward more and more light trucks and SUVs.  Only when oil prices are high, does...
Mazdak
Google Releases Gemini 2.0 Flash Google is making bold moves in the AI space with the release of Gemini 2.0, a series of advanced AI...
6 months ago
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6 months ago
Google is making bold moves in the AI space with the release of Gemini 2.0, a series of advanced AI models designed to challenge industry leaders like OpenAI, Microsoft, Meta, and Anthropic.
Calculated Risk
Asking Rents Mostly Unchanged Year-over-year Today, in the Real Estate Newsletter: Asking Rents Mostly Unchanged Year-over-year Brief excerpt:...
6 months ago
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6 months ago
Today, in the Real Estate Newsletter: Asking Rents Mostly Unchanged Year-over-year Brief excerpt: Another monthly update on rents. Apartment List: Asking Rent Growth -0.5% Year-over-year ... On the supply side of the rental market, our national vacancy index ticked up to 6.9...
Commoncog
The Study of Asian Tycoons What can we learn from the study of Asian conglomerates, and the small group of tycoons that control...
6 months ago
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6 months ago
What can we learn from the study of Asian conglomerates, and the small group of tycoons that control them?
Calculated Risk
ISM® Services Index Decreases to 52.8% in January (Posted with permission). The ISM® Services index was at 52.8%, down from 54.0% last month. The...
6 months ago
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6 months ago
(Posted with permission). The ISM® Services index was at 52.8%, down from 54.0% last month. The employment index increased to 52.3%, from 51.3%. Note: Above 50 indicates expansion, below 50 in contraction. Services PMI® at 52.8% January 2025 Services ISM® Report On...
Calculated Risk
Trade Deficit increased to $98.4 Billion in December The Census Bureau and the Bureau of Economic Analysis reported: The U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S....
6 months ago
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6 months ago
The Census Bureau and the Bureau of Economic Analysis reported: The U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis announced today that the goods and services deficit was $98.4 billion in December, up $19.5 billion from $78.9 billion in November, revised. ...