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The Diff
Amazon Wants AI Models Commoditized. Can They Make it Happen? Plus! Business and Editorial; The Other AI Growth Story; Getting Ahead of the Shift; Activist Shorts
6 months ago
Calculated Risk
NAR: Pending Home Sales Decrease 4.6% in January to an "All-time low" From the NAR: Pending Home Sales Waned 4.6% in January Pending home sales pulled back 4.6% in...
6 months ago
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6 months ago
From the NAR: Pending Home Sales Waned 4.6% in January Pending home sales pulled back 4.6% in January according to the National Association of REALTORS®. The Midwest, South and West experienced month-over-month losses in transactions – with the most significant drop in the South...
Mazdak
Amazon AWS Enters the Quantum Race with Ocelot Amazon Web Services (AWS) has officially entered the quantum computing race with the unveiling of...
6 months ago
38
6 months ago
Amazon Web Services (AWS) has officially entered the quantum computing race with the unveiling of Ocelot, its first quantum chip, developed in collaboration with Caltech.
Calculated Risk
Q4 GDP Growth Unrevised at 2.3% Annual Rate From the BEA: Gross Domestic Product, 4th Quarter and Year 2024 (Second Estimate) Real gross...
6 months ago
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6 months ago
From the BEA: Gross Domestic Product, 4th Quarter and Year 2024 (Second Estimate) Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 2.3 percent in the fourth quarter of 2024 (October, November, and December), according to the second estimate released by the U.S....
Calculated Risk
Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Increase to 242,000 The DOL reported: seasonally adjusted initial claims was 242,000, an increase of 22,000 from the...
6 months ago
32
6 months ago
The DOL reported: seasonally adjusted initial claims was 242,000, an increase of 22,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 1,000 from 219,000 to 220,000. The 4-week moving average was 224,000, an increase of 8,500 from the...
Calculated Risk
Thursday: GDP, Unemployment Claims, Durable Goods, Pending Home Sales Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. initial weekly...
6 months ago
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6 months ago
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for an increase to 225 thousand from 219 thousand last week. Gross Domestic Product, 4th Quarter and Year 2024 (Second...
Calculated Risk
Lawler: Treasury Secretary Wrongly Says Fed Has Been “Big Seller” of Treasuries From housing economist Tom Lawler: Treasury Secretary Wrongly Says Fed Has Been “Big Seller” of...
6 months ago
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6 months ago
From housing economist Tom Lawler: Treasury Secretary Wrongly Says Fed Has Been “Big Seller” of Treasuries “The Fed’s balance sheet runoff increases the supply of Treasuries. It’s easier for me to extend duration when I’m not competing with another big seller.” This statement...
The Rational Walk
Berkshire Hathaway’s 2024 Annual Report My thoughts on Berkshire Hathaway's 2024 annual report and Warren Buffett's letter to shareholders.
6 months ago
oftwominds-Charles...
Housing: The Foundations of the Middle Class Are Crumbling Bottom line: with the loss of predictability, we've also lost any sense of future financial...
6 months ago
37
6 months ago
Bottom line: with the loss of predictability, we've also lost any sense of future financial security. Home ownership has been the foundation of middle-class stability and security for so long that it defines middle-class status as much as income. From the end of World War...
Calculated Risk
Newsletter: New Home Sales Decrease to 657,000 Annual Rate in January Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: New Home Sales Decrease to 657,000 Annual Rate...
6 months ago
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6 months ago
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: New Home Sales Decrease to 657,000 Annual Rate in January Brief excerpt: The Census Bureau reported New Home Sales in January were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 657 thousand. The previous three months were...
Calculated Risk
New Home Sales Decrease to 657,000 Annual Rate in January The Census Bureau reports New Home Sales in January were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR)...
6 months ago
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6 months ago
The Census Bureau reports New Home Sales in January were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 657 thousand. Sales of new single-family houses in January 2025 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 657,000, according to estimates released jointly today by the U.S....
Calculated Risk
MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly Survey From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly Survey Mortgage applications...
6 months ago
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6 months ago
From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly Survey Mortgage applications decreased 1.2 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending February 21,...
Calculated Risk
Wednesday: New Home Sales Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. mortgage...
6 months ago
25
6 months ago
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. mortgage purchase applications index. New Home Sales for January from the Census Bureau. The consensus is that new home sales decreased to 678 thousand SAAR, down from 698 thousand in December.
Calculated Risk
A few comments on the Seasonal Pattern for House Prices A few key points: 3) The seasonal swings have increased recently without a surge in distressed...
6 months ago
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6 months ago
A few key points: 3) The seasonal swings have increased recently without a surge in distressed sales. Click on graph for larger image. The second graph shows the seasonal factors for the Case-Shiller National index since 1987. The factors started to change near the peak of...
Calculated Risk
FDIC: Number of Problem Banks Decreased in Q4 2024 The FDIC released the Quarterly Banking Profile for Q4 2024: Full-Year ROA and Net Income Increased...
6 months ago
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6 months ago
The FDIC released the Quarterly Banking Profile for Q4 2024: Full-Year ROA and Net Income Increased in 2024 Asset Quality Metrics Remained Generally Favorable, Though Weakness in Certain Portfolios Persisted emphasis added Click on graph for larger image. From the FDIC: The...
The Diff
When and How Will AI Offer People Search? Plus! Consumption Patterns; Training Data; Grift Confluence; Marketing and Piracy; Convergence
6 months ago
Calculated Risk
Newsletter: Case-Shiller: National House Price Index Up 3.9% year-over-year in December Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Case-Shiller: National House Price Index Up...
6 months ago
27
6 months ago
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Case-Shiller: National House Price Index Up 3.9% year-over-year in December S&P/Case-Shiller released the monthly Home Price Indices for December ("December" is a 3-month average of October, November and December closing...
Calculated Risk
Case-Shiller: National House Price Index Up 3.9% year-over-year in December S&P/Case-Shiller released the monthly Home Price Indices for December ("December" is a 3-month...
6 months ago
31
6 months ago
S&P/Case-Shiller released the monthly Home Price Indices for December ("December" is a 3-month average of October, November and December closing prices). S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Index Records 3.9% Annual Gain in December 2024 The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home...
Calculated Risk
Tuesday: Case-Shiller House Prices, Richmond Fed Mfg From Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily: Mortgage Rates Start New Week at 2 Month Lows Mortgage...
6 months ago
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6 months ago
From Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily: Mortgage Rates Start New Week at 2 Month Lows Mortgage rates were already in line with the lowest levels since December 18th by last Thursday. They dropped to the best levels since December 12th a day later. end of last week. 30 year...
FIRE v London
Buy to let: RIP Last year was the end of an era. I sold the Modern Flat, after owning it for over 20 years. A bit of...
6 months ago
51
6 months ago
Last year was the end of an era. I sold the Modern Flat, after owning it for over 20 years. A bit of history I ended up with my Modern Flat in that common way that many ‘accidental’ landlords have. It was my first rung on the property ownership ladder. Until it was time to…...
Calculated Risk
February Vehicle Forecast: Sales Increase to 15.9 million SAAR, Up 1.5% YoY From WardsAuto: February U.S. Light-Vehicle Sales Maintain Growth; Inventory Resumes Gains (pay...
6 months ago
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6 months ago
From WardsAuto: February U.S. Light-Vehicle Sales Maintain Growth; Inventory Resumes Gains (pay content).  Brief excerpt: Sales are recording solid gains, but production slowdowns capping dealer stock in a growth market – a market that ostensibly still is climbing out of the...
Mazdak
TikTok Becomes the First App to Reach $6 Billion in Annual Consumer Spending In 2024, the short-form video platform, along with its Chinese counterpart Douyin, became the first...
6 months ago
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6 months ago
In 2024, the short-form video platform, along with its Chinese counterpart Douyin, became the first non-game app to generate $6 billion in annual consumer spending.
Calculated Risk
The Normal Seasonal Change for Median House Prices Earlier, in the CalculatedRisk Real Estate Newsletter on January existing home sales, NAR:...
6 months ago
29
6 months ago
Earlier, in the CalculatedRisk Real Estate Newsletter on January existing home sales, NAR: Existing-Home Sales Decreased to 4.08 million SAAR in January, I mentioned that the median price typically bottoms seasonally in January (contracts signed mostly in November and December)...
The Diff
Filling Out Forms is Corvée Labor Plus! The Real News Business; Credit, Wealth, and Risk-Adjusted Returns; Less-Than-Truckload; Capex;...
6 months ago
34
6 months ago
Plus! The Real News Business; Credit, Wealth, and Risk-Adjusted Returns; Less-Than-Truckload; Capex; Bundling and Scale; Diff Jobs
Calculated Risk
Housing Feb 24th Weekly Update: Inventory Up 0.3% Week-over-week, Up 28.7% Year-over-year Altos reports that active single-family inventory was up 0.3% week-over-week. Inventory always...
6 months ago
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6 months ago
Altos reports that active single-family inventory was up 0.3% week-over-week. Inventory always declines seasonally in the Winter and usually bottoms in January or February. Inventory is now up 2.5% from the bottom six weeks ago in January. The first graph shows the seasonal...
Musings on Markets
Data Update 8 for 2025: Debt, Taxes and Default - An Unholy Trifecta! There is a reason that every religion inveighs against borrowing money, driven by a history of...
6 months ago
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6 months ago
There is a reason that every religion inveighs against borrowing money, driven by a history of people and businesses, borrowing too much and then paying the price, but a special vitriol is reserved for the lenders, not the borrowers, for encouraging this behavior. At the same...
Calculated Risk
Sunday Night Futures Weekend: Schedule for Week of February 23, 2025 Housing Starts and Recessions Chicago Fed National...
6 months ago
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6 months ago
Weekend: Schedule for Week of February 23, 2025 Housing Starts and Recessions Chicago Fed National Activity Index for January. This is a composite index of other data. Dallas Fed Survey of Manufacturing Activity for February. Pre-Market Data and Bloomberg futures S&P 500 are up...
oftwominds-Charles...
When Markets Misbehave Markets misbehave, sometimes when we least expect it. How badly they misbehave depends on the...
6 months ago
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6 months ago
Markets misbehave, sometimes when we least expect it. How badly they misbehave depends on the soundness of the hull and the level of self-reinforcing hubris. When Benoit Mandelbrot's book The (Mis)behavior of Markets was published in 2004, it was a revelation for many of...
Calculated Risk
Housing Starts and Recessions This morning, Carl Quintanilla posted a graph on Bluesky from BESPOKE suggesting the US is heading...
6 months ago
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6 months ago
This morning, Carl Quintanilla posted a graph on Bluesky from BESPOKE suggesting the US is heading towards a recession. Quintanilla quoted BESPOKE: “On a 12-month average basis, .. Housing Starts have completely rolled over from their peak .. Housing is the basis of one of my...
Commoncog
Let’s Talk Corruption How to think about corruption when talking about Asian businesses. Part 4 of the Asian Conglomerate...
6 months ago
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6 months ago
How to think about corruption when talking about Asian businesses. Part 4 of the Asian Conglomerate series.
Mazdak
Bybit’s $5.5 Billion Bank Run: A Turning Point for Crypto Security? In the volatile world of cryptocurrency, security is paramount.
6 months ago
Calculated Risk
Real Estate Newsletter Articles this Week: Mortgage Delinquencies Increase, Foreclosures Remain Low At the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter this week: Click on graph for larger image. NAR:...
6 months ago
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6 months ago
At the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter this week: Click on graph for larger image. NAR: Existing-Home Sales Decreased to 4.08 million SAAR in January Housing Starts Decreased to 1.366 million Annual Rate in January The "Neutral" Rate and Implications for 30-year Mortgage...
The Diff
Longreads + Open Thread Types, Ellison, AI, YouTube, Private Credit, Globalization, Lending, Huawei
6 months ago
Calculated Risk
Schedule for Week of February 23, 2025 The key reports this week are January New Home sales, the second estimate of Q4 GDP, Personal Income...
6 months ago
34
6 months ago
The key reports this week are January New Home sales, the second estimate of Q4 GDP, Personal Income and Outlays for January, and Case-Shiller house prices. ----- Monday, February 24th ----- 8:30 AM ET: Chicago Fed National Activity Index for January. This is a composite index...
Calculated Risk
February 21st COVID Update: COVID in Wastewater Declining Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. For deaths, I'm...
6 months ago
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6 months ago
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. For deaths, I'm currently using 4 weeks ago for "now", since the most recent three weeks will be revised significantly. Note: "Effective May 1, 2024, hospitals are no longer required to report...
The Rational Walk
Berkshire Hathaway’s Culture in 2050 By mid-century, changes in Berkshire Hathaway's voting control could make a breakup of the...
6 months ago
43
6 months ago
By mid-century, changes in Berkshire Hathaway's voting control could make a breakup of the conglomerate likely.
Calculated Risk
Q1 GDP Tracking: Around 2% From BofA: We initiated our 1Q US GDP tracker with the January retail sales print on February 14....
6 months ago
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6 months ago
From BofA: We initiated our 1Q US GDP tracker with the January retail sales print on February 14. Since then, our 1Q GDP tracker is down two-tenths to 2.3% q/q saar from our official forecast of 2.5% q/q saar. Meanwhile, our 4Q GDP tracking is down two-tenths to 2.2% q/q saar...
Calculated Risk
Newsletter: Existing-Home Sales Decreased to 4.08 million SAAR in January Today, in the CalculatedRisk Real Estate Newsletter: NAR: Existing-Home Sales Decreased to 4.08...
6 months ago
28
6 months ago
Today, in the CalculatedRisk Real Estate Newsletter: NAR: Existing-Home Sales Decreased to 4.08 million SAAR in January Sales in January (4.08 million SAAR) were down 4.9% from the previous month and were 2.0% above the January 2024 sales rate. This was the fourth consecutive...
The Diff
Who is Levered to Extreme, but not History-Ending, Growth? Plus! Bond; Capitalizing Nvidia's Strategy; Creator Funds; Adjusted EBITDA; Shortages and Gluts
6 months ago
Calculated Risk
NAR: Existing-Home Sales Decreased to 4.08 million SAAR in January From the NAR: Existing-Home Sales Decreased 4.9% in January, But Increased Year-Over-Year for Fourth...
6 months ago
34
6 months ago
From the NAR: Existing-Home Sales Decreased 4.9% in January, But Increased Year-Over-Year for Fourth Consecutive Month Existing-home sales retreated in January, according to the National Association of REALTORS®. Sales slipped in three major U.S. regions and held steady in the...
Calculated Risk
ICE: Mortgage Delinquency Rate Decreased in January From ICE: ICE First Look at Mortgage Performance: Foreclosure Starts Jump as VA Moratorium Ends;...
6 months ago
27
6 months ago
From ICE: ICE First Look at Mortgage Performance: Foreclosure Starts Jump as VA Moratorium Ends; Wildfire Delinquencies Emerge • Delinquencies fell 24 basis points (bps) to 3.47% in January; that’s 10 bps higher than last year, but 33 bps below pre-pandemic levels Foreclosure...
Calculated Risk
Friday: Existing Home Sales Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. Existing Home...
6 months ago
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6 months ago
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. Existing Home Sales for January from the National Association of Realtors (NAR). The consensus is for 4.17 million SAAR, down from 4.24 million. University of Michigan's Consumer sentiment index...
Calculated Risk
Realtor.com Reports Active Inventory Up 27.6% YoY What this means: On a weekly basis, Realtor.com reports the year-over-year change in active...
6 months ago
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6 months ago
What this means: On a weekly basis, Realtor.com reports the year-over-year change in active inventory and new listings. On a monthly basis, they report total inventory. For January, Realtor.com reported inventory was up 24.6% YoY, but still down 24.8% compared to the 2017 to...
Calculated Risk
California Home Sales Down 1.9% YoY in January; 4th Look at Local Housing Markets Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: California Home Sales Down 1.9% YoY in...
6 months ago
31
6 months ago
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: California Home Sales Down 1.9% YoY in January; 4th Look at Local Housing Markets A brief excerpt: Here a few more local markets prior to the NAR release tomorrow. Tom Lawler expects the NAR to report sales of 4.09 million...
oftwominds-Charles...
The Tax Benefits of Self-Employment Lowering one's tax burden is not the reason to pursue self-employment, but it is something worth...
6 months ago
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6 months ago
Lowering one's tax burden is not the reason to pursue self-employment, but it is something worth understanding if you're exploring self-employment. It's tax preparation time, the secular equivalent of crawling around the temple on cobblestones littered with broken glass....
The Diff
Don't Try to Build Another Berkshire Plus! Humans in the Loop; Humans in the Loop, Con't.; The Hardware/Software Burden; Custody;...
6 months ago
38
6 months ago
Plus! Humans in the Loop; Humans in the Loop, Con't.; The Hardware/Software Burden; Custody; Unwinding a Bubble
Calculated Risk
LA Ports: Record Inbound Traffic for January This was a new record for imports in January, eclipsing the previous recent (Jan 2022) by 17%! some...
6 months ago
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6 months ago
This was a new record for imports in January, eclipsing the previous recent (Jan 2022) by 17%! some hints about the trade report since LA area ports handle about 40% of the nation's container port traffic. Los Angeles and Long Beach in TEUs (TEUs: 20-foot equivalent units or...
Calculated Risk
Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Increase to 219,000 The DOL reported: emphasis added The following graph shows the 4-week moving average of weekly...
6 months ago
34
6 months ago
The DOL reported: emphasis added The following graph shows the 4-week moving average of weekly claims since 1971. Click on graph for larger image. The dashed line on the graph is the current 4-week average. The four-week average of weekly unemployment claims decreased to...
Calculated Risk
Thursday: Unemployment Claims, Philly Fed Mfg Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. initial weekly...
6 months ago
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6 months ago
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for an increase to 216 thousand from 213 thousand last week. manufacturing survey for February. The consensus is for a...
Calculated Risk
AIA: Architecture Billings "Billings remain soft to start the new year" Note: This index is a leading indicator primarily for new Commercial Real Estate (CRE)...
6 months ago
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6 months ago
Note: This index is a leading indicator primarily for new Commercial Real Estate (CRE) investment. ABI January 2025: Architecture firm billings remain soft to start the new year The AIA/Deltek Architecture Billings Index (ABI) score was 45.6 for the month, slightly above the...