The Diff
In Credit Underwriting, Better is Worse
Plus! IRR; Structure; Financial Epiphytes; Shale; Weakening the Cartel
2nd Jan 2025
Plus! IRR; Structure; Financial Epiphytes; Shale; Weakening the Cartel
Molson Hart's Blog -...
It’s Time to Build… Assets?
One of the main reasons for the decline in goods and services in the United States, and to a lesser...
28th Mar 2026
One of the main reasons for the decline in goods and services in the United States, and to a lesser extent, the world, is the financialization of our economies by excessive money printing.
Let's break that down into simpler language.
The quality of the things and services you buy...
Molson Hart's Blog -...
Is the wholesale marketplace Faire right for your e-commerce business or brand?
My company has sold $2.6 million on Faire over the past 4.5 years.
As selling on Amazon has become...
6th Feb 2026
My company has sold $2.6 million on Faire over the past 4.5 years.
As selling on Amazon has become tougher and tougher, we are thankful for the growing sales Faire has brought us.
That said, it's a difficult, counterintuitive marketplace to operate on, and one that is getting,...
Molson Hart's Blog -...
America Underestimates the Difficulty of Bringing Manufacturing Back
On April 2nd, 2025, our president announced major new taxes on imports from foreign countries...
6th Apr 2025
On April 2nd, 2025, our president announced major new taxes on imports from foreign countries (“tariffs”), ranging from 10% to 49%. The stated goal is to bring manufacturing back to the United States and to “make America wealthy again”.
These tariffs will not work. In fact, they...
Bits about Money
Deposit franchises as natural hedges
Many observe that banks seem to be blowing up due to predictable consequences of rising interest...
5th May 2023
Many observe that banks seem to be blowing up due to predictable consequences of rising interest rates. How did we get here?
Bits about Money
Notes on a non-profit indicted for bank fraud
Well-regarded non-profit runs domestic intelligence agency; distributes intelligence product;...
1st May 2026
Well-regarded non-profit runs domestic intelligence agency; distributes intelligence product; achieves adoption in financial infrastructure; recruits agents and allies; intervenes against U.S. political fundraising.
FIRE v London
May 2025: market springtime
I’ve had quite a busy May. It’s been a lovely month, featuring a wedding in the country, a trip to...
8th Jun 2025
I’ve had quite a busy May. It’s been a lovely month, featuring a wedding in the country, a trip to the Isle of Wight, my first visit to a dairy farm in 40+ years, a lovely trip to the Cotswolds, and more. If you can identify any of the locations above feel free to shout… Continue...
Calculated Risk
May 2nd COVID Update: COVID Deaths Continue to Decline
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios.
For deaths, I'm...
2nd May 2025
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios.
For deaths, I'm currently using 4 weeks ago for "now", since the most recent three weeks will be revised significantly.
Note: "Effective May 1, 2024, hospitals are no longer required to report...
Moneyness
Trump-proofing Canada means ditching MasterCard and Visa
We're all busy doing our best to boycott U.S. products. I can't buy Special K cereal anymore,...
14th Mar 2025
We're all busy doing our best to boycott U.S. products. I can't buy Special K cereal anymore, because it's made in the U.S. by Kellogg's. But I'm still buying Shreddies, which is made in Niagara Falls, Ontario. Even that's a grey area, since Shreddies is owned by Post, a big...
FIRE v London
Jan ’26
January media seemed dominated by Greenland and Davos. As part of my efforts to avoid amplifying...
8th Feb 2026
January media seemed dominated by Greenland and Davos. As part of my efforts to avoid amplifying unstable narcissistic media-whore leaders, I haven’t got much to comment about. London has been pretty wet and miserable, as is January’s reputation. Meanwhile, markets were up quite...
oftwominds-Charles...
Look Out Below
As I often note, making Plans B and C is free.
The stock market is always looking past "bad...
7th Oct 2025
As I often note, making Plans B and C is free.
The stock market is always looking past "bad news" to front-run "good news."
Once it became clear that the Titanic was indeed going to sink, the stock market would rally on the prospect of sharp growth in lifeboat shares. In...
Musings on Markets
The Scaling and Profitability Trade off: Venture Capital's Weakest Link!
It is undeniable technology companies have found their most hospitable setting in the United States...
2 weeks ago
It is undeniable technology companies have found their most hospitable setting in the United States and while there are many reasons for the US dominance of technology, easier access to capital for young businesses has been a key ingredient. Venture capital in the US, in its...
Mazdak
More Creators Can Now Make Money on YouTube
YouTube Lowers Monetization Requirements for Creators. New Twitter CEO Linda Yaccarino Sets Out...
13th Jun 2023
YouTube Lowers Monetization Requirements for Creators. New Twitter CEO Linda Yaccarino Sets Out Vision for the Platform. YouTube Makes It Easier for Small Creators to Earn Money YouTube is lowering the eligibility requirements for creators to make money from their channels....
Mazdak
Understanding the Stock Market Cycle
The stock market cycle is a crucial concept for investors aiming to navigate the financial markets...
7th Jun 2024
The stock market cycle is a crucial concept for investors aiming to navigate the financial markets effectively. It represents the period from a market low to a peak and back again. Understanding the dynamics behind these cycles can help investors maintain their strategies during...
Bits about Money
Seeing like a Bank
The structural reasons why banks sometimes behave bizarrely in interactions with customers, like...
7th Nov 2023
The structural reasons why banks sometimes behave bizarrely in interactions with customers, like forgetting things which customers tell them.
FIRE v London
Feb ’23: taking profits
February was cold, but mercifully dry. The days are becoming a welcome bit longer. London is filling...
14th Mar 2023
February was cold, but mercifully dry. The days are becoming a welcome bit longer. London is filling up again, post covid, though Mondays and Fridays remain subdued to put it mildly. Market movements in February In the markets, February started strongly, but then something...
Musings on Markets
Data Update 4 for 2026: The Global Perspective!
If you have read my first three data updates in 2026, I won’t blame you if you skip this one,...
2nd Feb 2026
If you have read my first three data updates in 2026, I won’t blame you if you skip this one, because you found them long and boring. I won't take issue with you either if you viewed them as too US-focused, because I did spend my second data update, looking at US equities, and my...
oftwominds-Charles...
Begging Bowl '25: I'm Looking for Two Readers Willing to Help Me Buy a New Thrift-Store Shirt
The goal is to move incrementally toward a kind of happiness that actually makes us happy. That's...
2nd Feb 2025
The goal is to move incrementally toward a kind of happiness that actually makes us happy. That's the goal of my work.
I admire unvarnished honesty, which is scarce. And like everything else that's increasingly scarce, it behooves us to hoard our stash. In the unvarnished...
Molson Hart's Blog -...
Heureka
A “heureka” is a surprisingly powerful yet simple solution to a complex optimization problem, which...
20th Sep 2025
A “heureka” is a surprisingly powerful yet simple solution to a complex optimization problem, which is theoretically inferior to more complicated solutions, but is, in practice, optimal.
Example:
“I’m a 22 year old Phi Beta Kappa alumnus of University of Iowa and I have this idea...
Citation Needed
Issue 87 – SO ORDERED
Trump’s crypto empire attracts more foreign millions, the FHFA pushes crypto on mortgage lenders,...
1st Jul 2025
Trump’s crypto empire attracts more foreign millions, the FHFA pushes crypto on mortgage lenders, and Mamdani’s mayoral primary win makes billionaires sweat
FIRE v London
10 year review
Wahoop! I have made it through ten years. In fact, I’ve had a trackable portfolio for over 20 years....
20th Jan 2023
Wahoop! I have made it through ten years. In fact, I’ve had a trackable portfolio for over 20 years. But 10 years ago I started tracking my portfolio in a consistent, monthly way – unitising its performance so I could measure its return. It wasn’t until 2015 that I started this...
Citation Needed
Citation Needed has a new home
Citation Needed is no longer hosted on Substack. Welcome to my antifascist bar.
5th Jan 2024
Citation Needed is no longer hosted on Substack. Welcome to my antifascist bar.
Citation Needed
Issue 53 – Choose rich
Euphoria has risen along with crypto prices, but nothing has changed from the last bubble.
13th Mar 2024
Euphoria has risen along with crypto prices, but nothing has changed from the last bubble.
Farnam Street
The Best Summary of Atlas Shrugged
A brief, no-fluff, summary of Atlas Shrugged by Ayn Rand. If you want to learn how capitalist...
9th Jul 2026
A brief, no-fluff, summary of Atlas Shrugged by Ayn Rand. If you want to learn how capitalist countries become socialist, this book will help you. Let’s dive in. Atlas Shrugged: The Simple Version The world depends on a relatively small number of people who build, invent, and...
The Diff
We Still Have No Idea Whether Passive Investing is a Meaningful Risk
Plus! Complements and Strategy; Privacy, Competition, and Scale; Platforms and Ownership; KYC;...
26th Nov 2024
Plus! Complements and Strategy; Privacy, Competition, and Scale; Platforms and Ownership; KYC; Tariff Man
Bits about Money
Fraud Investigation is Believing Your Lying Eyes
The financial industry has paid tens of billions of dollars in tuition on fraud detection. Here are...
6th Feb 2026
The financial industry has paid tens of billions of dollars in tuition on fraud detection. Here are some observations for investigators with badges, press cards, or GoPros.
Bits about Money
One Regulation E, Two Very Different Regimes
How consumer protection in payments works, why it was designed that way, and why it’s being...
7th Jan 2026
How consumer protection in payments works, why it was designed that way, and why it’s being contested today.
Citation Needed
Issue 69 – Nice
Coinbase threatens me that continuing to report on their activities would be “.... unwise”. Also,...
2nd Nov 2024
Coinbase threatens me that continuing to report on their activities would be “.... unwise”. Also, election spending hits a fever pitch, with several new crypto PACs coming out of the woodwork.
Musings on Markets
Data Update 9 for 2025: Dividends and Buybacks - Inertia and Me-tooism!
In my ninth (and last) data post for 2025, I look at cash returned by businesses across the world,...
5th Mar 2025
In my ninth (and last) data post for 2025, I look at cash returned by businesses across the world, looking at both the magnitude and the form of that return. I start with a framework for thinking about how much cash a business can return to its owners, and then argue that, in the...
FIRE v London
May ’26: Angelic timing
May was an enjoyable month. I kept reasonably busy, as well as doing a bit of travel around the UK....
17th Jun 2026
May was an enjoyable month. I kept reasonably busy, as well as doing a bit of travel around the UK. I visited King Charles’ Poundbury for the first time, as well as the south coast and the Cotswolds for a weekend. Meanwhile, the news has been dominated by Trump’s Iran war, and in...
Bits about Money
Markets in power
How physics and infrastructure combine to generate (ba dum bum) the power market.
30th Sep 2022
How physics and infrastructure combine to generate (ba dum bum) the power market.
The Rational Walk
Warren Buffett’s Thanksgiving Letter
Warren Buffett's Thanksgiving Letter sheds more light on why he decided to retire.
11th Nov 2025
Warren Buffett's Thanksgiving Letter sheds more light on why he decided to retire.
Molson Hart's Blog -...
Being an Amazon Seller in 2020; Year in Review
I’m the founder and CEO of Viahart, an educational toy company. We did about $7.4 million in sales...
3rd Jan 2021
I’m the founder and CEO of Viahart, an educational toy company. We did about $7.4 million in sales in 2020, mostly through e-commerce channels like Amazon and Walmart.com. This article is going to tell you what that was like and how things were different in 2020 than in 2019.
To...
The Diff
What do LLMs Want?
Plus! Governance; Implementation Risk; Jailbreaking; In-Kind Deals; Revalued Inputs
1st Dec 2025
Plus! Governance; Implementation Risk; Jailbreaking; In-Kind Deals; Revalued Inputs
Commoncog
Letter to a Young Person Worrying About AI
It is a common misperception that you must be able to predict the future to do well. But it’s...
20th Oct 2025
It is a common misperception that you must be able to predict the future to do well. But it’s possible to act without prediction, even in the face of AI. This is how.
Commoncog
How to Improve at Sensemaking AI?
What we can learn from the disorienting changes hitting the software industry, and how we can use...
3rd May 2026
What we can learn from the disorienting changes hitting the software industry, and how we can use that to improve at sensemaking this uncertain new technology.
oftwominds-Charles...
Power and Impunity
Those acting with impunity are confident that their powers or god-like because they appear so in the...
2nd Feb 2026
Those acting with impunity are confident that their powers or god-like because they appear so in the human realm. But there are limits to everything in the human realm.
One of the first things we learned about the Internet is that anything sent via email could readily become...
Citation Needed
Issue 54 – Cases continue
Crypto-related litigation is in full swing, as the Terra civil fraud trial has kicked off and two...
2nd Apr 2024
Crypto-related litigation is in full swing, as the Terra civil fraud trial has kicked off and two other cases against crypto companies have survived motions to dismiss.
Farnam Street
The Winner’s Edge
A lot of otherwise talented people are too pessimistic to actually do anything. They are paralyzed...
19th Apr 2023
A lot of otherwise talented people are too pessimistic to actually do anything. They are paralyzed by risks that don’t exist and greatly exaggerate them where they do, preventing them from being one of the best. Consider this lightly edited excerpt from a conversation between...
Commoncog
How to Run Smart Experiments When You Just Don’t Know
How all good entrepreneurs run experiments at the earliest stages of a business, and how you can use...
20th Aug 2025
How all good entrepreneurs run experiments at the earliest stages of a business, and how you can use this approach for your own career.
Seeking Wisdom
Embeddings – Part 2
This is the 9th post in my series on building a toy GPT. For better understanding, I recommend...
3rd Dec 2023
This is the 9th post in my series on building a toy GPT. For better understanding, I recommend reading my earlier posts first. Word embeddings convert words into fixed-length numerical arrays. Each number in these arrays corresponds to a specific characteristic of the word, such...
Molson Hart's Blog -...
What Do Brontosauruses Know about Uncoordinated Conspiracies?
Brontosaurus skeleton at the Yale Peabody Museum of Natural History (allegedly)
Let’s pretend for a...
2nd Sep 2024
Brontosaurus skeleton at the Yale Peabody Museum of Natural History (allegedly)
Let’s pretend for a moment that brontosauruses are made up, despite them being accepted by the public and scientific community, having ample evidence for their existence, and appearing in museums all...
Citation Needed
Issue 71 – (Crypto) banks are not your friends
Celsius’ Alex Mashinsky pleads guilty to fraud, some Tornado Cash sanctions are overturned, and tech...
5th Dec 2024
Celsius’ Alex Mashinsky pleads guilty to fraud, some Tornado Cash sanctions are overturned, and tech billionaires complain about “debanking”.
balajis.com
America's $175 Trillion Problem
The true state of the global financial system, in ten charts.
25th Jul 2024
The true state of the global financial system, in ten charts.
Calculated Risk
Economic Tailwinds and Headwinds
After the election in November 2016, I pointed out that the economy was solid, that there were...
1st Apr 2025
After the election in November 2016, I pointed out that the economy was solid, that there were significant economic tailwinds and that it was unlikely that Mr. Trump would do everything he said during the campaign. See: The Future is still Bright! and The Cupboard is Full.
I...
FIRE v London
Feb ’25: The top comes off
What’s in the news? The Trump, is in the news. He gets more than enough coverage without me adding...
15th Mar 2025
What’s in the news? The Trump, is in the news. He gets more than enough coverage without me adding to it. From the point of view of what affects portfolios like mine, a few things happened What’s going on with me? My personal life was quite busy in February. I visited the UK city...
FIRE v London
Apr ’23: Wind and windfalls
April saw the season of long weekends begin here in the UK. Easter saw me inspired by the Ermine to...
6th May 2023
April saw the season of long weekends begin here in the UK. Easter saw me inspired by the Ermine to check out Dorset’s Chesil beach. We struck lucky with the weather and had a fine, distinctly non-London, time, over a very blustery Easter weekend. My walking shoes seem to have...
balajis.com
The Bitcoin ETF is the spiritual reversal of Executive Order 6102
Back in 1935, they seized the gold. But now, digital gold is back.
11th Jan 2024
Back in 1935, they seized the gold. But now, digital gold is back.
Commoncog
The Creation of a Skilled Tycoon
What it looks like when an Asian tycoon gets good at the game of business.
8th Dec 2025
What it looks like when an Asian tycoon gets good at the game of business.
Commoncog
Putting the Jobs to be Done Interview to Practice
Things we wished someone told us, before we put the JTBD interview to practice.
9th Jul 2025
Things we wished someone told us, before we put the JTBD interview to practice.
FIRE v London
Aug ’23: …
A belated write-up of the month of August. Thinking back a month, two stories pop out for me. One...
18th Sep 2023
A belated write-up of the month of August. Thinking back a month, two stories pop out for me. One was the death of Russian mutineer Yevgeny Prigozhin – a larger-than-life modern day warlord, responsible for the ‘little green men’ at the start of the Russian/Ukraine war in 2014,...
Bits about Money
Deposit insurance maximization as a service
In the wake of the recent banking crisis, there is some attention to deposit insurance limits. Some...
5th Apr 2023
In the wake of the recent banking crisis, there is some attention to deposit insurance limits. Some products increase them; here is how.
The Diff
In the Future, Every AI Lab is a Neocloud for Fifteen Minutes
Plus! FDE Crunch; Fable!; Egg Futures?; Becoming IBM; Surtaxes
2nd Jul 2026
Plus! FDE Crunch; Fable!; Egg Futures?; Becoming IBM; Surtaxes
Bits about Money
The business of wallets
How digital wallets work, and how payment costs drive a lot of product decisions inside and around...
30th Apr 2024
How digital wallets work, and how payment costs drive a lot of product decisions inside and around them.
Molson Hart's Blog -...
Being an Amazon Seller in 2021; Year in Review
I’m the founder and CEO of Viahart (est. 2010), an e-commerce focused educational toy company. We...
23rd Jan 2022
I’m the founder and CEO of Viahart (est. 2010), an e-commerce focused educational toy company. We did $8.8 million in sales in 2021. This article is going to tell you what it was like to run this business in 2021 vs. 2020, amidst threats like the Amazon aggregators, supply chain...
Mazdak
⚖️ Copyright Law and Generative AI
Generative AI is revolutionizing the way we create, but it's also raising complex legal questions...
1st Dec 2023
Generative AI is revolutionizing the way we create, but it's also raising complex legal questions about copyright law. 🤯 What's the Issue? 🤔 Copyright law protects original works created by humans. But what about AI-generated content? Is it protected by copyright? 🤔
Citation Needed
Issue 81 – Crypto crime is legal
Trump continues to dismantle crypto enforcement while expanding his personal crypto empire
8th Apr 2025
Trump continues to dismantle crypto enforcement while expanding his personal crypto empire
The Rational Walk
A Quarter Century of Investing
Lessons learned from twenty-five years of enterprising investing
6th Jan 2025
Lessons learned from twenty-five years of enterprising investing
Bits about Money
A window into modern loan origination
A four party consortium can underwrite, fund, and execute a consumer loan in 15 minutes. Here's how.
10th Oct 2025
A four party consortium can underwrite, fund, and execute a consumer loan in 15 minutes. Here's how.
FIRE v London
My exits – a post mortem
Readers will know that I dabble with active investing – I pick stocks. Lord, make me passive, but...
4th Feb 2025
Readers will know that I dabble with active investing – I pick stocks. Lord, make me passive, but not yet Rather like The Investor at Monevator, I firmly believe in the merits of low cost index tracking as an investment strategy, but I also enjoy the thrills / intellectual...
balajis.com
Global Crypto Regulation: Who’s Hot and Who’s Not?
Global crypto regulation is confusing. So I surveyed the information available and created a...
25th May 2022
Global crypto regulation is confusing. So I surveyed the information available and created a heatmap.
FIRE v London
July ’26: An IPO, and France
It feels as if the World Cup was ages ago, already. Yet only a few weeks ago, I was gripped. And for...
9th Aug 2026
It feels as if the World Cup was ages ago, already. Yet only a few weeks ago, I was gripped. And for once I thought England had a world-class side…. but hey ho, football hasn’t come home for another four years. I had a road trip through France in July, which was lovely. I am…...
Mazdak
The Ultimate Small Business Hiring Guide
How to Find the Right Fit for Your Team
9th Oct 2024
How to Find the Right Fit for Your Team
FIRE v London
June ’23: The hottest ever
June saw UK’s former PM Mr Johnson leave parliament. Good riddance. I suspect we haven’t seen or...
15th Jul 2023
June saw UK’s former PM Mr Johnson leave parliament. Good riddance. I suspect we haven’t seen or (definitely) read the last of him but having him out of Westminster is at least a bit safer than him inside. Closer to (my Coastal Folly) home, there has been a sad story in...
Musings on Markets
To Bitcoin or not to Bitcoin? A Corporate Cash Question!
In this post, I will bring together two disparate and very different topics that I have written...
18th Jul 2025
In this post, I will bring together two disparate and very different topics that I have written about in the past. The first is the role that cash holdings play in a business, an extension of the dividend policy question, with an examination of why businesses often should not pay...
FIRE v London
May ’24: UK election called
The month of May seems a little while ago, so I’d better get on and write it up. This will be quick....
14th Jun 2024
The month of May seems a little while ago, so I’d better get on and write it up. This will be quick. The big news in the UK was Rishi Sunak, the outgoing PM, calling a general election for 4 July. Independence-from-the-Tories Day. May was also the month that u-turner/blowharder...
FIRE v London
Mar ’25: Anticipating tariffs
What’s in the news? Talking about the news in March, give nwhat’s been happing on the tariff front...
11th Apr 2025
What’s in the news? Talking about the news in March, give nwhat’s been happing on the tariff front over the last few weeks, seems a bit pointless. We entered March with a lot of drama about Ukraine, and some notable ‘ceasefire’ activity on the diplomatic front. We finished March...
Molson Hart's Blog -...
Amazon’s Pricing Policies Promote Inflation
The state of California has sued Amazon in what may be the biggest antitrust case for 25 years, when...
30th Apr 2023
The state of California has sued Amazon in what may be the biggest antitrust case for 25 years, when 20 states joined the US Department of Justice to sue Microsoft. These cases revolve around whether consumers are harmed by the company’s actions. The case against Amazon focuses...
Musings on Markets
A “Fairly Highly Valued” Market: A Fed Chair Opines on Stocks, but should we listen?
In December 1996, Alan Greenspan used the words "irrational exuberance" to describe the stock market...
6th Oct 2025
In December 1996, Alan Greenspan used the words "irrational exuberance" to describe the stock market at the time, and those words not only became the title of Robert Shiller's cautionary book on market bubbles, but also the beginnings of the belief that central bankers had the...
Musings on Markets
Country Risk: My 2024 Data Update
After the 2008 market crisis, I resolved that I would be far more organized in my assessments and...
24th Jul 2024
After the 2008 market crisis, I resolved that I would be far more organized in my assessments and updating of equity risk premiums, in the United States and abroad, as I looked at the damage that can be inflicted on intrinsic value by significant shifts in risk premiums, i.e., my...
Seeking Wisdom
What I learned from Prof. Sanjay Bakshi’s Behavioral Economics Course at FLAME University
I had the privilege to attend Prof. Sanjay Bakshi’s Behavioral Economics course at FLAME University....
7th Aug 2022
I had the privilege to attend Prof. Sanjay Bakshi’s Behavioral Economics course at FLAME University. Being his student since 2011, I realized my dream by sitting in his class for 3.5 days. Prof. Bakshi taught us around 20 different models from Charlie Munger’s Psychology of Human...
balajis.com
Popups are the new startups
Now you can materialize your cloud community into the real world.
12th Oct 2025
Now you can materialize your cloud community into the real world.
FIRE v London
July ’25: New high watermark
There wasn’t a huge amount to report from July. Politically/economically I fear the most important...
16th Aug 2025
There wasn’t a huge amount to report from July. Politically/economically I fear the most important event in the UK was the Labour government’s failure to enact its intended welfare reforms. This leaves the government a) unable to control spending b) unable to nudge the economy...
FIRE v London
Sep ’24: Ominous politics, juicy economics
September was fairly action-packed. I enjoyed getting out on a friend’s boat around Poole and the...
13th Oct 2024
September was fairly action-packed. I enjoyed getting out on a friend’s boat around Poole and the Solent. I made it to the Labour party conference in Liverpool, which was fascinating albeit wet. I am apparently firmly in the tax-raising sights of the Government, but I wasn’t the...
Farnam Street
Chesterton’s Fence: A Lesson in Second Order Thinking
A core component of making great decisions is understanding the rationale behind previous decisions....
5th Sep 2022
A core component of making great decisions is understanding the rationale behind previous decisions. If we don’t understand how we got “here,” we run the risk of making things much worse. *** When we seek to intervene in any system created by someone, it’s not enough to view...
Bits about Money
Credit card debt collection
Credit card debt is the waste stream of consumer finance. The debt collection industry ends up being...
11th Aug 2023
Credit card debt is the waste stream of consumer finance. The debt collection industry ends up being sordid, for complex structural and microeconomic reasons.
FIRE v London
Jan ’23: Mr Market defuses my tax bombshell
January is always a miserable month to be in London. Thankfully I managed to get away a bit during...
1st Feb 2023
January is always a miserable month to be in London. Thankfully I managed to get away a bit during the month (not to Davos, no), and enjoy myself in London despite the wintry weather. What you’re paying for in Mayfair these days Market movements in January The markets on the...
Commoncog
What’s an Operational Definition Anyway?
Two principles on collecting data, from the field of Statistical Process Control. As with most...
3rd Oct 2023
Two principles on collecting data, from the field of Statistical Process Control. As with most principles in SPC, this is both simpler and more important than you might think.
Commoncog
One Definition of Wisdom
Charlie Munger’s biggest business mistake, and what it tells us about wisdom.
14th Feb 2024
Charlie Munger’s biggest business mistake, and what it tells us about wisdom.
Commoncog
The Hospitality Solution in Your Business
A look at the main provocation of Will Guidara’s Unreasonable Hospitality: that you can solve...
11th Sep 2024
A look at the main provocation of Will Guidara’s Unreasonable Hospitality: that you can solve (certain) business problems with hospitality, and that it only takes a little thoughtfulness to do so.
Mazdak
OpenAI Launches GPT-5
On August 7, 2025, OpenAI officially released GPT-5, its latest flagship model, to the world.
7th Aug 2025
On August 7, 2025, OpenAI officially released GPT-5, its latest flagship model, to the world.
Commoncog
1st Sept 2026: An Increase in Membership Prices
Commoncog is increasing membership prices on 1st September 2026. If you’d like to lock in the old...
11th Aug 2026
Commoncog is increasing membership prices on 1st September 2026. If you’d like to lock in the old prices, you should probably sign up before then.
Bits about Money
Two Americas, one bank branch, and $50,000 cash
Ever wondered what happens if you try to take $50,000 in cash out of a bank? Answer: a year of...
5th Mar 2025
Ever wondered what happens if you try to take $50,000 in cash out of a bank? Answer: a year of investigative journalism.
The Diff
Longreads + Open Thread
Funds, Slop, Schools, Lookism, Automation, Bots, Efficiency, Magnitogorsk
1st Aug 2026
Funds, Slop, Schools, Lookism, Automation, Bots, Efficiency, Magnitogorsk
Musings on Markets
The Power of Expectations: Nvidia's Earnings and the Market Reaction!
Last Wednesday (August 28), the market waited with bated breath for Nvidia’s earning call, scheduled...
6th Sep 2024
Last Wednesday (August 28), the market waited with bated breath for Nvidia’s earning call, scheduled for after the market closed. That call, at first sight, contained exceptionally good news, with revenues and earnings coming in at stratospheric levels, and above expectations,...
Musings on Markets
Anatomy of a Market Crisis: Tariffs, Markets and the Economy!
I was boarding a plane for a trip to Latin America late in the evening last Wednesday (April 2), and...
7th Apr 2025
I was boarding a plane for a trip to Latin America late in the evening last Wednesday (April 2), and as is my practice, I was checking the score on the Yankee game, when I read the tariff news announcement. Coming after a few days where the market seemed to have found its...
oftwominds-Charles...
25 Years of Higher Interest Rates Ahead?
Interest rates are linked to inflation, but they're also linked to risk.
As a result of...
2nd May 2025
Interest rates are linked to inflation, but they're also linked to risk.
As a result of recency bias, where we assume the recent past is a permanent state of affairs, many believe near-zero interest rates are "normal." They aren't. As the chart of 10-year US Treasury...
Commoncog
A Few Notes on Moats
Some non-obvious, even surprising things about building competitive moats, including when they might...
11th Feb 2026
Some non-obvious, even surprising things about building competitive moats, including when they might not be necessary.
Mazdak
Twitter vs. Instagram Threads: The Battle for the Short-Form Social Media Crown
Twitter and Instagram are two of the most popular social media platforms in the world. They both...
8th Jul 2023
Twitter and Instagram are two of the most popular social media platforms in the world. They both offer users a way to share short-form content, but they have different approaches to how that content is displayed and consumed. Twitter is a more public platform, where anyone can...
Calculated Risk
Question #3 for 2025: What will the unemployment rate be in December 2025?
Earlier I posted some questions on my blog for next year: Ten Economic Questions for 2025. Some of...
1st Jan 2025
Earlier I posted some questions on my blog for next year: Ten Economic Questions for 2025. Some of these questions concern real estate (inventory, house prices, housing starts, new home sales), and I posted thoughts on those in the newsletter (others like GDP and employment will...
Citation Needed
Issue 50 – Bitcoin busts
Governments seize huge quantities of bitcoin, and a few people seem to be yearning for the days of...
2nd Feb 2024
Governments seize huge quantities of bitcoin, and a few people seem to be yearning for the days of peak crypto mania.
Mazdak
Meta's Fake AI Profiles, the TikTok Ban, Telegram Updates, and Microsoft's $80 Billion AI Investment...
Meta's AI Experiment: What Went Wrong?
4th Jan 2025
Meta's AI Experiment: What Went Wrong?
balajis.com
The Network School
We’re starting a new school near Singapore for the dark talent of the world. Apply online at...
16th Aug 2024
We’re starting a new school near Singapore for the dark talent of the world. Apply online at ns.com/apply.
Mazdak
OpenAI Launches GPT‑4.1: What You Need to Know About the New Family of AI Models
OpenAI has officially released the GPT‑4.1 family — and it’s more than just a minor upgrade.
14th Apr 2025
OpenAI has officially released the GPT‑4.1 family — and it’s more than just a minor upgrade.
Musings on Markets
A Golden Year (2025): Gold's Price Surge - The Signal in the Noise!
I grew up in India in a time where if you had wealth, your investment options were limited. A stock...
6th Nov 2025
I grew up in India in a time where if you had wealth, your investment options were limited. A stock market with sparse listings, accompanied by a lack of trust in financial assets, led investors to put their wealth into tangible assets. Real estate was the most common choice but...
oftwominds-Charles...
The Joys and Tragedies of Naivete
Our naivete is being exploited so ruthlessly and with such abandon that the golden age of the Big...
5th Aug 2026
Our naivete is being exploited so ruthlessly and with such abandon that the golden age of the Big Con is consuming itself.
Naivete is interesting because it's so easily confused with confidence, native optimism, youthful enthusiasm, and a host of delusions, including...
Mazdak
Google: Monopolized?
Is Google too big? For years, the tech giant has dominated the search market, facing little...
1st Dec 2024
Is Google too big? For years, the tech giant has dominated the search market, facing little competition.
Commoncog
The Capital Cycle
What a famous investing framework — part of the modern canon of value investing — tells us about the...
20th Sep 2023
What a famous investing framework — part of the modern canon of value investing — tells us about the expertise of capital in business.
FIRE v London
Nov ’23 revalues the future
In the news It has been quite a busy month out there. The Israel/Gaza crisis continues. Public...
5th Dec 2023
In the news It has been quite a busy month out there. The Israel/Gaza crisis continues. Public opinion is shifting against the Israel government here, even in North London – which would normally be one of the most sympathetic neighbourhoods outside Tel Aviv. The Ukrainians are...
oftwominds-Charles...
The War
That I don't have an analysis or insight to offer doesn't mean I don't care. It simply means there...
1st Mar 2026
That I don't have an analysis or insight to offer doesn't mean I don't care. It simply means there are limits on what we know, and what we do know suggests circumspection.
War seems to demand some response--opinion, analysis, insight--lest it seem that we're uncaring or...
Commoncog
How to Handle Disruptive Change
As a business, how do you deal with disruption — technological or otherwise? Some patterns from a...
yesterday
As a business, how do you deal with disruption — technological or otherwise? Some patterns from a collection of case studies.
Commoncog
Operational Excellence is the Pursuit of ‘Knowledge’
It turns out that operational excellence results from the pursuit of a certain form of knowledge....
16th Mar 2023
It turns out that operational excellence results from the pursuit of a certain form of knowledge. This is Part 3 of the Becoming Data Driven series, and the result of a deep dive into the field of statistical process control.
Moneyness
Your finances are being snooped on. Here's how
We all have a pretty good idea that our finances are being snooped on, but most of us aren't quite...
12th Jul 2024
We all have a pretty good idea that our finances are being snooped on, but most of us aren't quite able to articulate how. We know that we're being snooped on by two groups, corporations and the government. This post will focus on how the government surveils our transactions,...
Molson Hart's Blog -...
THE SLOW, EXCRUCIATING, DISASTEROUS DUMBING DOWN OF AMERICA
Austin is a more pleasant place to live than Dallas because people are smarter on average.
This does...
24th Sep 2023
Austin is a more pleasant place to live than Dallas because people are smarter on average.
This does not mean there are not smart people in Dallas. There are. What it does mean is the typical Austinite is just a little sharper.
This makes for more pleasant conversations. It’s...
The Diff
Who Decides What AI Can Do?
Plus! Diff Jobs; Fun Trades; Insiders; M&A; Two-Tier Rounds; Switching Costs
2nd Mar 2026
Plus! Diff Jobs; Fun Trades; Insiders; M&A; Two-Tier Rounds; Switching Costs
Citation Needed
Trump to launch branded crypto trading application
New crypto trading and wallet application, created in partnership with Magic Eden, invites fans of...
3rd Jun 2025
New crypto trading and wallet application, created in partnership with Magic Eden, invites fans of President Trump to buy his memecoin
Seeking Wisdom
Modeling Life: Foundations
Herman Wouk was researching for a novel he planned to write about World War II. He interviewed...
7th Apr 2024
Herman Wouk was researching for a novel he planned to write about World War II. He interviewed several physicists at Caltech who had worked on the bomb, including Richard Feynman. After the interview, Feynman asked Wouk if he knew Calculus. “No,” said Wouk. To which Feynman...
Commoncog
Is This a Moat: Mailchimp and PayPal’s Algorithmic Advantage
Two case studies of real world competitive advantage, followed by a question: was this a moat or...
12th Dec 2022
Two case studies of real world competitive advantage, followed by a question: was this a moat or not?
Musings on Markets
An Ode to Restraint: Lessons from the Tim Cook Legacy
Through time, we have glorified conquerors and empire builders in politics, civic life and business,...
6th May 2026
Through time, we have glorified conquerors and empire builders in politics, civic life and business, from Alexander the Great and Genghis Khan to the tech titans of today. That is no surprise, since these individuals have oversized personas and often change the course of history,...
Moneyness
Setelinleikkaus: When Finns snipped their cash in half to curb inflation
On the last day of 1945, with World War II finally behind it, Finland's government announced a new...
8th Nov 2024
On the last day of 1945, with World War II finally behind it, Finland's government announced a new and very strange policy.
All Finns were required to take out a pair of scissors and snip their banknotes in half. This was known in Finland as setelinleikkaus, or banknote cutting....
Musings on Markets
Data Update 4 for 2024: Danger and Opportunity - Bringing Risk into the Equation!
In my last data updates for this year, I looked first at how equity markets rebounded in 2023,...
28th Jan 2024
In my last data updates for this year, I looked first at how equity markets rebounded in 2023, driven by a stronger-than-expected economy and inflation coming down, and then at how interest rates mirrored this rebound. In this post, I look at risk, a central theme in finance and...
Commoncog
Reflections on the Software Dark Factory Q&A
Some thoughts from watching a demo of a Software Dark Factory.
3rd Jun 2026
Some thoughts from watching a demo of a Software Dark Factory.
The Diff
Should Congress be Allowed to Trade?
Plus! Norms Trading; Point-of-Sale; Trade Trench Warfare; AI and Ads; Bluffing Your Way to Better...
1st May 2025
Plus! Norms Trading; Point-of-Sale; Trade Trench Warfare; AI and Ads; Bluffing Your Way to Better Management
balajis.com
Too Fake to Tell
US government stats aren't reliable. More importantly, neither are US government bonds.
5th Jun 2023
US government stats aren't reliable. More importantly, neither are US government bonds.
FIRE v London
Feb ’26: Before Iran
So, for the avoidance of doubt, the end of the month is the last trading day of the month. Which for...
16th Mar 2026
So, for the avoidance of doubt, the end of the month is the last trading day of the month. Which for February, meant Friday February 27th. The fact that the Israelis and the Americans invaded Iran on February 28th is going to impact March, not February. Which is just as well...
Commoncog
There Is No Truth in Business, Only Knowledge
'Knowledge' here is defined as 'theories or models that help you predict better'. How an idea from...
4th Apr 2023
'Knowledge' here is defined as 'theories or models that help you predict better'. How an idea from W. Edwards Deming may well be a working philosophy of business.
Seeking Wisdom
Focus on the process, not the outcome
Woorkeri Raman, a former Indian cricketer and former coach of the India women’s national cricket...
12th Aug 2024
Woorkeri Raman, a former Indian cricketer and former coach of the India women’s national cricket team, has two non-negotiables. As an offspinner, you must never get cut, and you must never get driven through the covers. Even when Ravichandran Ashwin takes five wickets, Raman will...
Commoncog
The 2024 Commoncog Recap
Everything that we covered in 2024, and what to expect in the coming year.
8th Jan 2025
Everything that we covered in 2024, and what to expect in the coming year.
Musings on Markets
For the fun of it: An Open House for my Spring 2025 Classes
I am a teacher at heart, and every year, for more than two decades, I have invited people to join me...
11th Dec 2024
I am a teacher at heart, and every year, for more than two decades, I have invited people to join me in the classes that I teach at the Stern School of Business at New York University. Since I teach these classes only in the spring, and the first sessions for each of the classes...
Moneyness
Tornado Cash un-OFAC'ed
The next chapter in the Tornado Cash saga just dropped. Last week a court ruled last that Tornado...
5th Dec 2024
The next chapter in the Tornado Cash saga just dropped. Last week a court ruled last that Tornado Cash, a bot that can be used for obfuscating crypto, is safe from being sanctioned.
I first wrote about Tornado Cash in 2021, before its legal troubles began, warning of the risks...
FIRE v London
July ’23: Markets up, Coutts down
It’s been a dismally wet July here in London. About 50% more rainfall than normal (which, before ye...
2nd Aug 2023
It’s been a dismally wet July here in London. About 50% more rainfall than normal (which, before ye scoff, isn’t that much – London is a fairly dry city – drier than Rome and much drier than Sydney). It has been long trousers weather, for the first time in several years. But at...
FIRE v London
July ’24: New UK government
July has been quite a busy month. I’ve been getting about a bit. Some South Coast action, some...
5th Aug 2024
July has been quite a busy month. I’ve been getting about a bit. Some South Coast action, some Mediterranean fun, a trip up to Oxford, a visit to one of England’s great Cathedrals, and more. And July saw some fine times in London. Both outdoors and inside. And of course we had...
balajis.com
All Property Becomes Cryptography
For 99%+ of what's valuable, for every financial asset and capital asset, we will secure it onchain.
28th Jul 2025
For 99%+ of what's valuable, for every financial asset and capital asset, we will secure it onchain.
The Rational Walk
Greg Abel’s Unique Challenge
Greg Abel takes over as Chief Executive Officer of Berkshire Hathaway on January 1, 2026, a job that...
31st Dec 2025
Greg Abel takes over as Chief Executive Officer of Berkshire Hathaway on January 1, 2026, a job that will involve at least three major challenges.
Moneyness
A glass half-full take on Caucasus sanctions evasion
Ed Conway of Sky News recently published a very good investigation on sanctions evasion being...
2nd Oct 2024
Ed Conway of Sky News recently published a very good investigation on sanctions evasion being carried out through the Caucasus. He visits the Lars border crossing between Georgia and Russia to document how smugglers are openly moving British and German luxury cars into Russia, in...
Citation Needed
Issue 78 – President on brink of bailout for bitcoin
Trump tries to breathe life back into the crypto markets’ “Trump pump” while federal regulatory...
3rd Mar 2025
Trump tries to breathe life back into the crypto markets’ “Trump pump” while federal regulatory agencies wash their hands of any crypto industry oversight
Molson Hart's Blog -...
Older Articles I’ve Written
In reverse chronological order:
Starting a Physical Product Company? You’re Gonna Need a Lawyer...
13th Dec 2020
In reverse chronological order:
Starting a Physical Product Company? You’re Gonna Need a Lawyer (October 18, 2020)
The Right to a Nonconsensus Opinion (June 9, 2020)
Never Invest in Anything Made of Metal (May 2, 2020)
Simple 3 Step Strategy to Stop the Coronavirus in the...
Seeking Wisdom
Modeling Life: Linear Algebra
This is the 4th post in my series summarizing the key takeaways from reading the book Modeling Life....
2nd May 2024
This is the 4th post in my series summarizing the key takeaways from reading the book Modeling Life. I recommend reading my previous posts first to gain a solid understanding on how to model dynamic systems. This post focuses on how linear algebra is employed in modeling dynamic...
Bits about Money
Bits about Money yearly recap and plans
What we covered in 2024, what are plans are in 2025, and a solicitation for supporting memberships.
15th Jan 2025
What we covered in 2024, what are plans are in 2025, and a solicitation for supporting memberships.
Bits about Money
The Long Shadow of Checks
A lot of more modern financial infrastructure follows the paths blazed by checks, at least in the...
13th Dec 2023
A lot of more modern financial infrastructure follows the paths blazed by checks, at least in the U.S.
The Rational Walk
The Digest #227
Final Issue: Bitcoin at $100K, Buffett and Munger Unscripted, Blue Chip Stamps, Flawed CPI...
5th Dec 2024
Final Issue: Bitcoin at $100K, Buffett and Munger Unscripted, Blue Chip Stamps, Flawed CPI Statistics, Ergodicity, The End of Shame, Notre Dame, Online Censorship, Healthcare Costs, and more ...
oftwominds-Charles...
Disney World's New Theme Park: The White House and Congress
A "Pirates of the Caribbean" themed experience is planned, where the taxpayers are repeatedly robbed...
1st Apr 2026
A "Pirates of the Caribbean" themed experience is planned, where the taxpayers are repeatedly robbed by a motley crew of miscreants.
In a blockbuster deal, an obscure federal agency has granted Disney the rights to develop the White House and Congress as a new FantasyLand...
The Diff
What Kills Cartels?
Plus! Diff Jobs; Strategic Investments; Media Form Factors; Fees; Critical Minerals; Brand Names
2nd Feb 2026
Plus! Diff Jobs; Strategic Investments; Media Form Factors; Fees; Critical Minerals; Brand Names
Mazdak
How to Win Friends and Influence People by Dale Carnegie: A Summary and Key Takeaways
Dale Carnegie's How to Win Friends and Influence People is one of the most popular and influential...
13th Oct 2023
Dale Carnegie's How to Win Friends and Influence People is one of the most popular and influential self-help books ever written. First published in 1936, it has sold over 50 million copies and been translated into over 30 languages. The book is a practical guide to improving...
The Diff
The One-Big-Side-Bet Model of Wealth Creation
Plus! Diff Jobs; Building Japan's Financial Ecosystem; The New Balance of Trade; Where Return on...
2nd Dec 2024
Plus! Diff Jobs; Building Japan's Financial Ecosystem; The New Balance of Trade; Where Return on Investment Goes; Broken ETFs; Swipe Fees and Accounting
Bits about Money
The infrastructure behind ATMs
ATMs are connected to banks by networks which operate little-understood payment rails.
2nd Jan 2023
ATMs are connected to banks by networks which operate little-understood payment rails.
FIRE v London
Feb ’24: Envyidia
I’ve had quite a lot of culture to enjoy in February. Aside from some travel for the Six Nations...
3rd Mar 2024
I’ve had quite a lot of culture to enjoy in February. Aside from some travel for the Six Nations rugby, I’ve been to two shows – one in London’s Royal Opera House and one on the south coast. Both events were either full or practically full. Covid feels fully behind us now. But...
Mazdak
Canada's Housing Crisis: Is There a Way Out?
Canada's housing market has become a national concern. Soaring prices have pushed homeownership out...
2nd Apr 2024
Canada's housing market has become a national concern. Soaring prices have pushed homeownership out of reach for many, and even renters struggle to find affordable options. The pandemic exacerbated this pre-existing crisis, highlighting the urgent need for solutions. This article...
oftwominds-Charles...
Why Healthcare Is in a Death Spiral: Follow the Money
If each of these is not a part of any 'reform,' than all that is being done is pouring money into a...
1st Dec 2025
If each of these is not a part of any 'reform,' than all that is being done is pouring money into a monopolizing cartel, just in a slightly different way.
Unbeknownst to those of us with little inside knowledge of the complex financial plumbing of the US healthcare system,...
Mazdak
AI Agents vs. SaaS: Is This the Beginning of a Structural Reset or Another Tech Overreaction?
Public software companies just had one of their worst weeks in years—and the market reaction was...
9th Feb 2026
Public software companies just had one of their worst weeks in years—and the market reaction was swift, brutal, and emotional.
Bits about Money
The business of check cashing
Check cashing, as a business, is a poorly understood "alternative" financial service.
30th Jan 2024
Check cashing, as a business, is a poorly understood "alternative" financial service.
Commoncog
Lee Walker and the Dell Growth Plateau
How Lee Walker overcame Dell's biggest growth plateau in 1986. A story about capital, imagination,...
16th Aug 2023
How Lee Walker overcame Dell's biggest growth plateau in 1986. A story about capital, imagination, and creative deal-making.
balajis.com
Why did Stu Woo of the Wall Street Journal Follow Me to Singapore?
Thirty five million people change countries every year. I'm one of them, and so is Stu Woo.
28th Jul 2026
Thirty five million people change countries every year. I'm one of them, and so is Stu Woo.
Commoncog
How to Become an Asian Tycoon
Every Asian tycoon becomes a tycoon in the exact same way. Learning to see this core pattern is half...
1st Apr 2025
Every Asian tycoon becomes a tycoon in the exact same way. Learning to see this core pattern is half the battle.
Commoncog
Dell's Capital Expertise
We trace Michael Dell's skill at the art of capital in business, and use it to examine how skill at...
1st Jul 2023
We trace Michael Dell's skill at the art of capital in business, and use it to examine how skill at capital allows you to make moves that aren't available to a novice business operator.
FIRE v London
April 2025 – balmy weather, barmy markets
Better late than never, I’m doing a quick update on April. More for the record than because anything...
24th May 2025
Better late than never, I’m doing a quick update on April. More for the record than because anything particularly notable happened in the portfolio, ignoring the mid month gyrations. It was a lovely month, April. I did a bit of travelling, but the UK had generally lovely spring...
Molson Hart's Blog -...
The Trial: How I lost $1 million dollars and 7 years in a lawsuit over Brain Flakes
I thought I was good.
Until I met Sol.
Solomon Rosengarten is a lawyer from Brooklyn. He has an AOL...
25th Nov 2025
I thought I was good.
Until I met Sol.
Solomon Rosengarten is a lawyer from Brooklyn. He has an AOL email address. He is not great with the mute button on his phone. He sometimes comes across as incompetent.
But, he is the best damned lawyer I have ever known.
Sol is a killer....
oftwominds-Charles...
If We Set Aside Ideology, Is There Anything We Can Agree On?
Just the experiment of setting aside ideological certainties for a moment would be instructive. ...
3rd Mar 2025
Just the experiment of setting aside ideological certainties for a moment would be instructive.
Humans are hard-wired to prefer simplicity over complexity, and this is the foundation of ideology, which like mythology takes a complex world and radically simplifies it to an...
Moneyness
Stablecoins – a digital version of Swiss bearer savings books
Before anti-money laundering laws arrived in Switzerland, anyone could walk into a Swiss bank and...
9th Aug 2024
Before anti-money laundering laws arrived in Switzerland, anyone could walk into a Swiss bank and open an account without showing any ID. The bank would then issue you something called a bearer savings book, otherwise known as inhabersparheften or livrets d'épargne au porteur....
oftwominds-Charles...
Risk and AI: It's Tricky
The possibility that AI will end up unleashing waves of 'Anti-Progress'--malicious uses,...
1st Jul 2026
The possibility that AI will end up unleashing waves of 'Anti-Progress'--malicious uses, untrustworthy output and uncontrollable floods of slop--also doesn't occur to those confined in the current belief construct.
A funny thing happens on the way to understanding risk: we...
Mazdak
LinkedIn Goes All In on Vertical Video
For years, platforms like TikTok, Instagram Reels, and YouTube Shorts have dominated the short-form...
4th Feb 2025
For years, platforms like TikTok, Instagram Reels, and YouTube Shorts have dominated the short-form video space.
Mazdak
Apple has a new CEO. Now comes the hard part.
September is here, and there’s actually quite a bit going on.
2 weeks ago
September is here, and there’s actually quite a bit going on.
The Diff
The Market for Contrarian Talent Doesn't Clear
Plus! Bootstrapping a Consumer-Facing Negawatt Market; Real Estate; Aggregators; Training Data;...
1st May 2026
Plus! Bootstrapping a Consumer-Facing Negawatt Market; Real Estate; Aggregators; Training Data; Supply Chains
The Diff
Longreads + Open Thread
Radio, Startups, History, Bally's, Dead Internet, Caesars
1st Feb 2025
Radio, Startups, History, Bally's, Dead Internet, Caesars
Musings on Markets
The Seven Samurai: How Big Tech Rescued the Market in 2023!
I was planning to finish my last two data updates for 2024, but decided to take a break and look at...
9th Feb 2024
I was planning to finish my last two data updates for 2024, but decided to take a break and look at the seven stocks (Apple, Amazon, Alphabet, Meta, Microsoft, Nvidia and Tesla) which carried the market in 2023. While I will use the "Magnificent Seven" moniker attached by these...
Commoncog
You Aren't Learning If You Don't Close the Loops
Every experimentation and iteration loop looks the same, but the vast majority of folk in business...
2nd Nov 2022
Every experimentation and iteration loop looks the same, but the vast majority of folk in business don't seem to have the discipline to execute till the end. Why this is, and why it's hard.
Seeking Wisdom
Hello LLMs!
When you are having trouble getting your thinking straight, consider an extreme or simple case. This...
4th Oct 2023
When you are having trouble getting your thinking straight, consider an extreme or simple case. This will often give you the insight needed to move forward. I nodded in agreement when I read the above lines from the book Maxims for Thinking Analytically. ChatGPT took the world by...
Molson Hart's Blog -...
Investment Advice Which Stands the Test of Time
There is investment advice in the book of Jewish religious law (the Talmud).
It advises that you...
5th May 2024
There is investment advice in the book of Jewish religious law (the Talmud).
It advises that you keep 1/3rd of your wealth in business, 1/3rd in land, and 1/3rd in gold.
It's genius.
Why?
First, it's simple.
Second, business, and, to a lesser extent, land, (but not gold, usually)...
Musings on Markets
Trillion Dollar Market Caps: Fairy Tale Pricing or Business Marvels?
Stock markets have always rewarded winners with large capitalizations, and with each new threshold,...
3rd Dec 2025
Stock markets have always rewarded winners with large capitalizations, and with each new threshold, the questions begin anew of whether animal spirits or fundamentals are driving the numbers. A few weeks ago, Nvidia seemed unstoppable as its market capitalization crested $5...
oftwominds-Charles...
The Power of Our Behavior
Why is any reduction in consumption posed in terms of unbearable sacrifice, when no sacrifices are...
23rd Jan 2025
Why is any reduction in consumption posed in terms of unbearable sacrifice, when no sacrifices are necessary to consequentially reduce consumption?
When we think of the word power, we associate it with external forces: energy, technology, the government, etc. But our own...
Calculated Risk
Real Estate Newsletter Articles this Week: New Home Sales Decrease to 657,000 Annual Rate in January
At the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter this week:
Click on graph for larger image.
New Home...
1st Mar 2025
At the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter this week:
Click on graph for larger image.
New Home Sales Decrease to 657,000 Annual Rate in January
Case-Shiller: National House Price Index Up 3.9% year-over-year in December
Inflation Adjusted House Prices 1.0% Below 2022...
balajis.com
The Network School Fellowship
Anyone from anywhere can apply for $100k in funding at ns.com.
18th Apr 2025
Anyone from anywhere can apply for $100k in funding at ns.com.
Citation Needed
Issue 61 – Soft war by the enemy
How will recent Supreme Court decisions affect the crypto world? Also, more absurdity from the...
5th Jul 2024
How will recent Supreme Court decisions affect the crypto world? Also, more absurdity from the crypto lobby, and some new regulatory actions.
Commoncog
The Joy of Small Markets
If you want to get rich, the irony is that small markets are often better than large ones.
2nd Sep 2025
If you want to get rich, the irony is that small markets are often better than large ones.
Commoncog
Announcing the Commoncog Case Library Public Beta
We're testing a cognitive flexibility theory-driven learning library, designed to accelerate...
24th Aug 2022
We're testing a cognitive flexibility theory-driven learning library, designed to accelerate business expertise. Find out more.
Mazdak
Trillions Flow into AI: The New Infrastructure Arms Race
🌐 Big Tech Bets Trillions on AI Infrastructure
26th Jun 2025
🌐 Big Tech Bets Trillions on AI Infrastructure
balajis.com
AI is polytheistic, not monotheistic
And ten more thoughts on AI.
3rd Aug 2025
And ten more thoughts on AI.
Commoncog
How to Become Data Driven
The answer, like most things from Statistical Process Control, is more surprising and more obvious...
6th Feb 2023
The answer, like most things from Statistical Process Control, is more surprising and more obvious than you might think.
Moneyness
Trump claims US banks can't open in Canada—US banks disagree
In what seems to be an effort to extort Canada for additional benefits, Donald Trump complained...
4th Feb 2025
In what seems to be an effort to extort Canada for additional benefits, Donald Trump complained yesterday on social media that CANADA DOESN'T EVEN ALLOW U.S. BANKS TO OPEN OR DO BUSINESS THERE. And so according to Trump, Canada doubly deserves to be disciplined with...
FIRE v London
Mar ’26: Iran clobbers markets
In March the rain stopped. We started March with North London already having seen 2x its usual...
12th Apr 2026
In March the rain stopped. We started March with North London already having seen 2x its usual rainfall for this point in the year. And thankfully in the middle of March, it stopped. As I write this I have actually needed to start watering the garden, something that felt a very...
Citation Needed
Issue 59 – Hot damn, this is going to get interesting quickly
Are US legislators warming to crypto? The SEC approves Ethereum ETPs, and a crypto bill gets through...
7th Jun 2024
Are US legislators warming to crypto? The SEC approves Ethereum ETPs, and a crypto bill gets through the House.
Moneyness
Why sanctions didn’t stop Russia's Garantex from using stablecoins
Stablecoins, a new type of financial institution, are unique in two ways. First, they use...
2nd Apr 2025
Stablecoins, a new type of financial institution, are unique in two ways. First, they use decentralized databases like Ethereum and Tron to run their platforms. Secondly, and more important for the purposes of this article, they grant access to almost anyone, no questions...
Mazdak
Markets Under Pressure: What Really Happens When the World Feels Unstable
When global tension rises, investors instinctively reach for the exit.
19th Jan 2026
When global tension rises, investors instinctively reach for the exit.
Commoncog
The Two Types of Data Analysis
Broadly speaking, there are two approaches to data analysis in business. The two approaches have...
3rd Nov 2023
Broadly speaking, there are two approaches to data analysis in business. The two approaches have different worldviews, and express different tradeoffs. Here's why that matters.
Molson Hart's Blog -...
15 mental Abilities & Traits Which Make You Successful But Are Not on an IQ Test
1. Empathy
2. Dexterity
3. Persuasion
4. Musicality
5. Confidence
6. Ambition
7. Grit
8....
2nd Jun 2024
1. Empathy
2. Dexterity
3. Persuasion
4. Musicality
5. Confidence
6. Ambition
7. Grit
8. Creativity
9. Flexibility
10. Energy
11. Individualism
12. Willpower
13. Stoicisim
14. Objectivity
15. Allure
oftwominds-Charles...
The Global Trade Game: Jokers Are Wild
There may be no winners of the game of Global Domination (tm), and that is likely the best outcome....
2nd Apr 2025
There may be no winners of the game of Global Domination (tm), and that is likely the best outcome.
Okay, players: jokers are wild, but with a twist: the entire deck is jokers. Since everyone at the table will have five Aces, nobody wins.
Welcome to the Trade War Poker...
Musings on Markets
Data Update 5 for 2025: It's a small world, after all!
If the title of this post sounds familiar, it is because is one of Disney’s most iconic rides, one...
6th Feb 2025
If the title of this post sounds familiar, it is because is one of Disney’s most iconic rides, one that I have taken hundreds of times, first with my own children and more recently, with my grandchildren. It is a mainstay of every Disney theme park, from the original Disneyland...
Citation Needed
Issue 94 – Backdoor deals
Trump is still corrupt, a core developer warns bitcoin won’t survive an upcoming code change, and...
8th Oct 2025
Trump is still corrupt, a core developer warns bitcoin won’t survive an upcoming code change, and crypto lenders are ratcheting up leverage like it’s 2022.
Commoncog
Danny Meyer’s Business Expertise
Let's break down Danny Meyer's business expertise as an exercise in biography reading.
7th Aug 2024
Let's break down Danny Meyer's business expertise as an exercise in biography reading.
The Rational Walk
Warren Buffett’s Final Brushstrokes
Warren Buffett is retiring as CEO of Berkshire Hathaway but he may still make a few final...
5th May 2025
Warren Buffett is retiring as CEO of Berkshire Hathaway but he may still make a few final brushstrokes on his canvas as Chairman.
Citation Needed
Trump says he has “no idea” who he just pardoned
President Trump reacts to condemnations of his recent pardon of Binance founder Changpeng Zhao by...
3rd Nov 2025
President Trump reacts to condemnations of his recent pardon of Binance founder Changpeng Zhao by claiming he doesn’t know who he is.
Bits about Money
Debanking (and Debunking?)
Crypto advocates kicked off a recent, somewhat politicized, discussion of debanking. Strap in for...
9th Dec 2024
Crypto advocates kicked off a recent, somewhat politicized, discussion of debanking. Strap in for scintillating banking compliance trivia.
Mazdak
Claude vs. ChatGPT: A Comprehensive Comparison
In today’s rapidly evolving AI landscape, two names stand out in the realm of conversational...
4th Mar 2025
In today’s rapidly evolving AI landscape, two names stand out in the realm of conversational assistants—Anthropic’s Claude and OpenAI’s ChatGPT. Although both are built on large language models, they diverge sharply in design philosophy, technical implementation, safety...
FIRE v London
June 2025: Show times
I really want to stop mentioning Trump. Even when he sends troops into LA, one of my favourite...
11th Jul 2025
I really want to stop mentioning Trump. Even when he sends troops into LA, one of my favourite cities. But when he launches 30kt bombs on Iran, it is very hard to avoid talking about him. In the context of what Trump’s been up to, the welfare reform screw-ups by the Labour...
The Diff
Imperfectly Enforced Rules Create Bad Local Maxima
Plus! Ads; Marketing; Pricing; Take Rates; SPVs
2 weeks ago
Plus! Ads; Marketing; Pricing; Take Rates; SPVs
Mazdak
Apple’s 2025 Product Unveiling: What’s New and What Actually Matters
Apple’s latest keynote delivered a sweeping set of updates across AirPods, iPhones, and the Apple...
9th Sep 2025
Apple’s latest keynote delivered a sweeping set of updates across AirPods, iPhones, and the Apple Watch lineup.
Mazdak
Capital Gains Tax Hike: Sell Now or Hold On? A Canadian Investor's Guide
Canada's recent federal budget has sent ripples through the investment and real estate communities....
24th May 2024
Canada's recent federal budget has sent ripples through the investment and real estate communities. A key change: a looming increase in capital gains tax on sizeable transactions. This has many wondering – should I sell assets before June 25th, 2024, to avoid the taxman's bite?...
Commoncog
Under The Hood
How do you shape employee culture? How do you win employee commitment? Under The Hood has a coherent...
12th Nov 2024
How do you shape employee culture? How do you win employee commitment? Under The Hood has a coherent model for building this skill.
Bits about Money
Financial systems take a holiday
Ever wondered about what happens when banks are closed or why some apps have operating hours? It's...
29th Feb 2024
Ever wondered about what happens when banks are closed or why some apps have operating hours? It's fascinating.
Molson Hart's Blog -...
What happens if the US loses reserve currency status?
A reserve currency is the currency that people all over the world prefer to store their savings...
29th Apr 2024
A reserve currency is the currency that people all over the world prefer to store their savings in.
Today that currency is the US dollar.
From the Middle East, to Asia, to South America — Whether it's a family that needs to keep some money around just in case or a country, most...
Mazdak
Working Out Will Change Your Life
Do you want to lose weight? Have more energy? Sleep better? Improve your mood? If so, then you need...
8th Aug 2023
Do you want to lose weight? Have more energy? Sleep better? Improve your mood? If so, then you need to start working out. Working out has a myriad of benefits that can improve your life in many ways. Here are just a few of the ways that working out can change your life:
Musings on Markets
Oil, War and the Global Economy: The Market's Narrative in March 2026
Markets play an expectations game, and in March 2026, we saw the process play out, with all of its...
1st Apr 2026
Markets play an expectations game, and in March 2026, we saw the process play out, with all of its upsides and downsides. The month started with a war in the Middle East, which quickly percolated into soaring oil prices and dropping stock prices, but the overwhelming factor was...
Commoncog
Introducing Xmrit
Some free software to create, modify, experiment with and share XmR charts. Unlock the ability to...
10th Apr 2024
Some free software to create, modify, experiment with and share XmR charts. Unlock the ability to become more data driven today.
The Rational Walk
Minimal Impact to Insurers from Icelandic Volcano Eruption
At least for now, most air travel restrictions caused by the eruption of the Eyjafjallajökull...
11th Aug 2026
At least for now, most air travel restrictions caused by the eruption of the Eyjafjallajökull volcano have been lifted throughout Europe.
Citation Needed
Issue 45 – I'm the director now
Rising bitcoin prices bring echoes of the crypto mania from years past, and an ambitious hacker...
5th Dec 2023
Rising bitcoin prices bring echoes of the crypto mania from years past, and an ambitious hacker decides to manifest a new job for themselves.
Moneyness
Renovatio monetae
This silver pfennig from the Archbishopric of Magdeburg (1152-1192) was subject to a policy of...
8th May 2024
This silver pfennig from the Archbishopric of Magdeburg (1152-1192) was subject to a policy of renovatio monetae. Twice a year whoever held it had to bring it in to be changed for new coins at a rate of four old coins to three new coins. That suggests an annualized tax rate on...
balajis.com
Bond Villain
When Powell devalued bonds, he destroyed the economy.
4th Jul 2023
When Powell devalued bonds, he destroyed the economy.
Citation Needed
Trump Jr.-advised prediction markets invite bets on president’s demise
President Trump’s deregulatory agenda emboldened prediction markets to push boundaries around...
2nd Sep 2025
President Trump’s deregulatory agenda emboldened prediction markets to push boundaries around permitted event contracts. Now sites advised by his son are allowing bets on his death.
Commoncog
Putting Amazon’s PR/FAQ to Practice
What it's like putting Amazon's famed Working Backwards process to practice in a small company...
8th Sep 2022
What it's like putting Amazon's famed Working Backwards process to practice in a small company context, and what was surprising and difficult about it.
Commoncog
All the Demand Ideas from The Heart of Innovation, Simply Stated
All the ideas of the Heart of Innovation, compressed into one piece.
3rd Mar 2026
All the ideas of the Heart of Innovation, compressed into one piece.
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