Commoncog
Putting the Jobs to be Done Interview to Practice
Things we wished someone told us, before we put the JTBD interview to practice.
9th Jul 2025
Things we wished someone told us, before we put the JTBD interview to practice.
Bits about Money
Seeing like a Bank
The structural reasons why banks sometimes behave bizarrely in interactions with customers, like...
7th Nov 2023
The structural reasons why banks sometimes behave bizarrely in interactions with customers, like forgetting things which customers tell them.
Mazdak
Capital Gains Tax Hike: Sell Now or Hold On? A Canadian Investor's Guide
Canada's recent federal budget has sent ripples through the investment and real estate communities....
24th May 2024
Canada's recent federal budget has sent ripples through the investment and real estate communities. A key change: a looming increase in capital gains tax on sizeable transactions. This has many wondering – should I sell assets before June 25th, 2024, to avoid the taxman's bite?...
Molson Hart's Blog -...
The Trial: How I lost $1 million dollars and 7 years in a lawsuit over Brain Flakes
I thought I was good.
Until I met Sol.
Solomon Rosengarten is a lawyer from Brooklyn. He has an AOL...
25th Nov 2025
I thought I was good.
Until I met Sol.
Solomon Rosengarten is a lawyer from Brooklyn. He has an AOL email address. He is not great with the mute button on his phone. He sometimes comes across as incompetent.
But, he is the best damned lawyer I have ever known.
Sol is a killer....
balajis.com
The Fiat Crisis
This is not a financial crisis. It’s a fiat crisis.
2nd May 2023
This is not a financial crisis. It’s a fiat crisis.
Moneyness
Trump claims US banks can't open in Canada—US banks disagree
In what seems to be an effort to extort Canada for additional benefits, Donald Trump complained...
4th Feb 2025
In what seems to be an effort to extort Canada for additional benefits, Donald Trump complained yesterday on social media that CANADA DOESN'T EVEN ALLOW U.S. BANKS TO OPEN OR DO BUSINESS THERE. And so according to Trump, Canada doubly deserves to be disciplined with...
Commoncog
The Only Thing That Matters
Business skill, as the ability to cut a messy business problem down to a single, most important...
3rd Nov 2025
Business skill, as the ability to cut a messy business problem down to a single, most important thing.
balajis.com
Network School 2025
Network School reopens March 1 with double the capacity. Apply now at ns.com.
2nd Feb 2025
Network School reopens March 1 with double the capacity. Apply now at ns.com.
The Rational Walk
What I’ve Been Reading
Thoughts on the books I read in Q1 2025
3rd Apr 2025
Thoughts on the books I read in Q1 2025
The Rational Walk
Warren Buffett’s Final Brushstrokes
Warren Buffett is retiring as CEO of Berkshire Hathaway but he may still make a few final...
5th May 2025
Warren Buffett is retiring as CEO of Berkshire Hathaway but he may still make a few final brushstrokes on his canvas as Chairman.
Citation Needed
Issue 59 – Hot damn, this is going to get interesting quickly
Are US legislators warming to crypto? The SEC approves Ethereum ETPs, and a crypto bill gets through...
7th Jun 2024
Are US legislators warming to crypto? The SEC approves Ethereum ETPs, and a crypto bill gets through the House.
FIRE v London
July ’26: An IPO, and France
It feels as if the World Cup was ages ago, already. Yet only a few weeks ago, I was gripped. And for...
9th Aug 2026
It feels as if the World Cup was ages ago, already. Yet only a few weeks ago, I was gripped. And for once I thought England had a world-class side…. but hey ho, football hasn’t come home for another four years. I had a road trip through France in July, which was lovely. I am…...
Bits about Money
Demystifying financial leverage
Leverage is actually reasonably easy to understand, both in the math and in the implications for...
11th Nov 2022
Leverage is actually reasonably easy to understand, both in the math and in the implications for financial firms.
Bits about Money
Why the CrowdStrike bug hit banks hard
Regulation-induced monocultures meet unfortunate but explicable engineering decisions.
31st Jul 2024
Regulation-induced monocultures meet unfortunate but explicable engineering decisions.
Musings on Markets
A Golden Year (2025): Gold's Price Surge - The Signal in the Noise!
I grew up in India in a time where if you had wealth, your investment options were limited. A stock...
6th Nov 2025
I grew up in India in a time where if you had wealth, your investment options were limited. A stock market with sparse listings, accompanied by a lack of trust in financial assets, led investors to put their wealth into tangible assets. Real estate was the most common choice but...
FIRE v London
August ’25: Warm memories
While the global soap opera of the Gaza crisis, Trump/Putin PR, Ukraine misery etc continued, I have...
11th Sep 2025
While the global soap opera of the Gaza crisis, Trump/Putin PR, Ukraine misery etc continued, I have created some warm memories in August. I spent a bit of time in the New Forest, at both ends, and the middle. Which included a trip to Mudeford, site of the UK’s most expensive...
Citation Needed
Issue 71 – (Crypto) banks are not your friends
Celsius’ Alex Mashinsky pleads guilty to fraud, some Tornado Cash sanctions are overturned, and tech...
5th Dec 2024
Celsius’ Alex Mashinsky pleads guilty to fraud, some Tornado Cash sanctions are overturned, and tech billionaires complain about “debanking”.
The Diff
The Market for Contrarian Talent Doesn't Clear
Plus! Bootstrapping a Consumer-Facing Negawatt Market; Real Estate; Aggregators; Training Data;...
1st May 2026
Plus! Bootstrapping a Consumer-Facing Negawatt Market; Real Estate; Aggregators; Training Data; Supply Chains
Commoncog
How to Become an Asian Tycoon
Every Asian tycoon becomes a tycoon in the exact same way. Learning to see this core pattern is half...
1st Apr 2025
Every Asian tycoon becomes a tycoon in the exact same way. Learning to see this core pattern is half the battle.
Molson Hart's Blog -...
Is China Taking Over US Retail?
Yes.
Let me explain.
Amazon made it easy for Chinese companies to sell their products directly to...
17th Aug 2021
Yes.
Let me explain.
Amazon made it easy for Chinese companies to sell their products directly to American consumers. In response, the Chinese, after having hollowed out American manufacturing, have moved up the value chain to do the same thing to American wholesale and retail....
Musings on Markets
The Seven Samurai: How Big Tech Rescued the Market in 2023!
I was planning to finish my last two data updates for 2024, but decided to take a break and look at...
9th Feb 2024
I was planning to finish my last two data updates for 2024, but decided to take a break and look at the seven stocks (Apple, Amazon, Alphabet, Meta, Microsoft, Nvidia and Tesla) which carried the market in 2023. While I will use the "Magnificent Seven" moniker attached by these...
Molson Hart's Blog -...
It’s Time to Build… Assets?
One of the main reasons for the decline in goods and services in the United States, and to a lesser...
28th Mar 2026
One of the main reasons for the decline in goods and services in the United States, and to a lesser extent, the world, is the financialization of our economies by excessive money printing.
Let's break that down into simpler language.
The quality of the things and services you buy...
oftwominds-Charles...
Power and Impunity
Those acting with impunity are confident that their powers or god-like because they appear so in the...
2nd Feb 2026
Those acting with impunity are confident that their powers or god-like because they appear so in the human realm. But there are limits to everything in the human realm.
One of the first things we learned about the Internet is that anything sent via email could readily become...
FIRE v London
My exits – a post mortem
Readers will know that I dabble with active investing – I pick stocks. Lord, make me passive, but...
4th Feb 2025
Readers will know that I dabble with active investing – I pick stocks. Lord, make me passive, but not yet Rather like The Investor at Monevator, I firmly believe in the merits of low cost index tracking as an investment strategy, but I also enjoy the thrills / intellectual...
balajis.com
California Is Not A Democracy
It's a one-party state. They hold elections, but the Party always wins.
10th Jun 2024
It's a one-party state. They hold elections, but the Party always wins.
Commoncog
The Amazon Weekly Business Review
Everything you need to know about the Amazon Weekly Business Review: how it works, why it works, and...
2nd Jul 2024
Everything you need to know about the Amazon Weekly Business Review: how it works, why it works, and how it helps Amazon win.
FIRE v London
Oct ’25: Trim, trim & trim
October in the markets was one of those slightly giddy months. My portfolio crossed through a big...
9th Nov 2025
October in the markets was one of those slightly giddy months. My portfolio crossed through a big number threshold, and kept going up. The market stats don’t quite tell the whole story. On a constant currency basis, markets rose 2.8%. Non-UK currencies (AUD, EUR, USD) rose...
Bits about Money
Financial systems take a holiday
Ever wondered about what happens when banks are closed or why some apps have operating hours? It's...
29th Feb 2024
Ever wondered about what happens when banks are closed or why some apps have operating hours? It's fascinating.
oftwominds-Charles...
The Inevitable Drift Down from "Can't Lose" Owning Stocks to "Can't Win"
Even if an AI program advises selling everything and walking away from the market for five years,...
3rd Nov 2025
Even if an AI program advises selling everything and walking away from the market for five years, how many of us would take this advice?
Only those who experienced the heady euphoria of the late 1990s dot-com bubble in tech stocks know what the shift from "can't lose"...
Commoncog
The 2024 Commoncog Recap
Everything that we covered in 2024, and what to expect in the coming year.
8th Jan 2025
Everything that we covered in 2024, and what to expect in the coming year.
Moneyness
A glass half-full take on Caucasus sanctions evasion
Ed Conway of Sky News recently published a very good investigation on sanctions evasion being...
2nd Oct 2024
Ed Conway of Sky News recently published a very good investigation on sanctions evasion being carried out through the Caucasus. He visits the Lars border crossing between Georgia and Russia to document how smugglers are openly moving British and German luxury cars into Russia, in...
Citation Needed
Issue 78 – President on brink of bailout for bitcoin
Trump tries to breathe life back into the crypto markets’ “Trump pump” while federal regulatory...
3rd Mar 2025
Trump tries to breathe life back into the crypto markets’ “Trump pump” while federal regulatory agencies wash their hands of any crypto industry oversight
Musings on Markets
The Situational Awareness Blow-up: The Collateral Damage from Investing Conviction!
Earlier this year, I was asked what I thought about Leopold Aschenbrenner and I admitted that I knew...
11th Aug 2026
Earlier this year, I was asked what I thought about Leopold Aschenbrenner and I admitted that I knew little about him other than what I had read about him, more in social media, than in the press - that he was a 25-year-old wunderkind who had started at OpenAI but had left to...
FIRE v London
Mar ’23: Harvesting tax losses
March has been rather a wet month in London. Wet, and cold. This translates into the ski slopes in...
7th Apr 2023
March has been rather a wet month in London. Wet, and cold. This translates into the ski slopes in the French Alps (finally) having great conditions – sadly too late for me to enjoy. Further north, it’s been a month of big change in Scotland. Nicola Sturgeon, the...
The Diff
When Labor is Scarce, Equity is the Mezzanine Tranche
Plus! What Goes Up; Refinancing; Investor Relations; Scaling; Infrastructure
2nd Apr 2026
Plus! What Goes Up; Refinancing; Investor Relations; Scaling; Infrastructure
Mazdak
Working Out Will Change Your Life
Do you want to lose weight? Have more energy? Sleep better? Improve your mood? If so, then you need...
8th Aug 2023
Do you want to lose weight? Have more energy? Sleep better? Improve your mood? If so, then you need to start working out. Working out has a myriad of benefits that can improve your life in many ways. Here are just a few of the ways that working out can change your life:
The Diff
Imperfectly Enforced Rules Create Bad Local Maxima
Plus! Ads; Marketing; Pricing; Take Rates; SPVs
2 weeks ago
Plus! Ads; Marketing; Pricing; Take Rates; SPVs
Musings on Markets
The Scaling and Profitability Trade off: Venture Capital's Weakest Link!
It is undeniable technology companies have found their most hospitable setting in the United States...
2 weeks ago
It is undeniable technology companies have found their most hospitable setting in the United States and while there are many reasons for the US dominance of technology, easier access to capital for young businesses has been a key ingredient. Venture capital in the US, in its...
oftwominds-Charles...
The Global Trade Game: Jokers Are Wild
There may be no winners of the game of Global Domination (tm), and that is likely the best outcome....
2nd Apr 2025
There may be no winners of the game of Global Domination (tm), and that is likely the best outcome.
Okay, players: jokers are wild, but with a twist: the entire deck is jokers. Since everyone at the table will have five Aces, nobody wins.
Welcome to the Trade War Poker...
The Diff
In Credit Underwriting, Better is Worse
Plus! IRR; Structure; Financial Epiphytes; Shale; Weakening the Cartel
2nd Jan 2025
Plus! IRR; Structure; Financial Epiphytes; Shale; Weakening the Cartel
Commoncog
Data and the Capital Cycle: How Koch Became an Empire
How Koch Industries became an empire. We draw on ideas from both the Becoming Data Driven series and...
11th Dec 2023
How Koch Industries became an empire. We draw on ideas from both the Becoming Data Driven series and the Capital Expertise series.
Molson Hart's Blog -...
The DECIDE Algorithm — A Simple Step-by-Step Method for Converting Idle Time into Productive Action
DECIDE
D - Determine the Bottleneck
E - Engage with the subject matter
C - Clear distractions
I -...
16th Mar 2025
DECIDE
D - Determine the Bottleneck
E - Engage with the subject matter
C - Clear distractions
I - Implement mental models
D - Decide how to proceed
E - Execute next steps
When you’re traveling or waiting for something to happen, instead of listening to a podcast or scrolling on...
Bits about Money
Markets in power
How physics and infrastructure combine to generate (ba dum bum) the power market.
30th Sep 2022
How physics and infrastructure combine to generate (ba dum bum) the power market.
The Diff
Routers, Apps, AGI
Plus! Diff Jobs; Peripheral Bets; Fragmentation and Industry Maturity; Deepfakes as Pull Quotes;...
20th Oct 2025
Plus! Diff Jobs; Peripheral Bets; Fragmentation and Industry Maturity; Deepfakes as Pull Quotes; Benchmarks; Platforms
FIRE v London
August ’24: From triumph to tragedy
Looking back on the month, it was more eventful than Augusts are reputed to be. In the UK we are...
7th Sep 2024
Looking back on the month, it was more eventful than Augusts are reputed to be. In the UK we are getting used to our new government. And, in some cases, violently testing its boundaries with some summer rioting. We’ve seen some dreadful street behaviour, frequently of a racist /...
Commoncog
Setting Up For The Second Half of 2024
A new set of cases for two concept sequences, and the end of the Data Driven Series.
19th May 2024
A new set of cases for two concept sequences, and the end of the Data Driven Series.
FIRE v London
Apr ’23: Wind and windfalls
April saw the season of long weekends begin here in the UK. Easter saw me inspired by the Ermine to...
6th May 2023
April saw the season of long weekends begin here in the UK. Easter saw me inspired by the Ermine to check out Dorset’s Chesil beach. We struck lucky with the weather and had a fine, distinctly non-London, time, over a very blustery Easter weekend. My walking shoes seem to have...
The Diff
Longreads + Open Thread
Funds, Slop, Schools, Lookism, Automation, Bots, Efficiency, Magnitogorsk
1st Aug 2026
Funds, Slop, Schools, Lookism, Automation, Bots, Efficiency, Magnitogorsk
balajis.com
All It Takes Is All You Got
Your assets are the government's collateral.
29th Mar 2024
Your assets are the government's collateral.
Commoncog
Reflections on the Software Dark Factory Q&A
Some thoughts from watching a demo of a Software Dark Factory.
3rd Jun 2026
Some thoughts from watching a demo of a Software Dark Factory.
Musings on Markets
Oil, War and the Global Economy: The Market's Narrative in March 2026
Markets play an expectations game, and in March 2026, we saw the process play out, with all of its...
1st Apr 2026
Markets play an expectations game, and in March 2026, we saw the process play out, with all of its upsides and downsides. The month started with a war in the Middle East, which quickly percolated into soaring oil prices and dropping stock prices, but the overwhelming factor was...
Bits about Money
Deposit franchises as natural hedges
Many observe that banks seem to be blowing up due to predictable consequences of rising interest...
5th May 2023
Many observe that banks seem to be blowing up due to predictable consequences of rising interest rates. How did we get here?
balajis.com
AI is polytheistic, not monotheistic
And ten more thoughts on AI.
3rd Aug 2025
And ten more thoughts on AI.
Commoncog
Introducing Xmrit
Some free software to create, modify, experiment with and share XmR charts. Unlock the ability to...
10th Apr 2024
Some free software to create, modify, experiment with and share XmR charts. Unlock the ability to become more data driven today.
Mazdak
Trillions Flow into AI: The New Infrastructure Arms Race
🌐 Big Tech Bets Trillions on AI Infrastructure
26th Jun 2025
🌐 Big Tech Bets Trillions on AI Infrastructure
The Rational Walk
Primary Sources
Consulting primary sources represents table stakes for intelligent investors and responsible...
11th Feb 2025
Consulting primary sources represents table stakes for intelligent investors and responsible citizens.
oftwominds-Charles...
Begging Bowl '25: I'm Looking for Two Readers Willing to Help Me Buy a New Thrift-Store Shirt
The goal is to move incrementally toward a kind of happiness that actually makes us happy. That's...
2nd Feb 2025
The goal is to move incrementally toward a kind of happiness that actually makes us happy. That's the goal of my work.
I admire unvarnished honesty, which is scarce. And like everything else that's increasingly scarce, it behooves us to hoard our stash. In the unvarnished...
Bits about Money
Two Americas, one bank branch, and $50,000 cash
Ever wondered what happens if you try to take $50,000 in cash out of a bank? Answer: a year of...
5th Mar 2025
Ever wondered what happens if you try to take $50,000 in cash out of a bank? Answer: a year of investigative journalism.
balajis.com
The Bitcoin ETF is the spiritual reversal of Executive Order 6102
Back in 1935, they seized the gold. But now, digital gold is back.
11th Jan 2024
Back in 1935, they seized the gold. But now, digital gold is back.
Mazdak
Understanding the Stock Market Cycle
The stock market cycle is a crucial concept for investors aiming to navigate the financial markets...
7th Jun 2024
The stock market cycle is a crucial concept for investors aiming to navigate the financial markets effectively. It represents the period from a market low to a peak and back again. Understanding the dynamics behind these cycles can help investors maintain their strategies during...
Calculated Risk
Real Estate Newsletter Articles this Week: New Home Sales Decrease to 657,000 Annual Rate in January
At the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter this week:
Click on graph for larger image.
New Home...
1st Mar 2025
At the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter this week:
Click on graph for larger image.
New Home Sales Decrease to 657,000 Annual Rate in January
Case-Shiller: National House Price Index Up 3.9% year-over-year in December
Inflation Adjusted House Prices 1.0% Below 2022...
Commoncog
Is This a Moat: Mailchimp and PayPal’s Algorithmic Advantage
Two case studies of real world competitive advantage, followed by a question: was this a moat or...
12th Dec 2022
Two case studies of real world competitive advantage, followed by a question: was this a moat or not?
Calculated Risk
2nd Look at Local Housing Markets in November
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: 2nd Look at Local Housing Markets in...
11th Dec 2024
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: 2nd Look at Local Housing Markets in November
A brief excerpt:
NOTE: The tables for active listings, new listings and closed sales all include a comparison to November 2019 for each local market (some 2019 data is not...
FIRE v London
Feb ’24: Envyidia
I’ve had quite a lot of culture to enjoy in February. Aside from some travel for the Six Nations...
3rd Mar 2024
I’ve had quite a lot of culture to enjoy in February. Aside from some travel for the Six Nations rugby, I’ve been to two shows – one in London’s Royal Opera House and one on the south coast. Both events were either full or practically full. Covid feels fully behind us now. But...
Citation Needed
Issue 54 – Cases continue
Crypto-related litigation is in full swing, as the Terra civil fraud trial has kicked off and two...
2nd Apr 2024
Crypto-related litigation is in full swing, as the Terra civil fraud trial has kicked off and two other cases against crypto companies have survived motions to dismiss.
Moneyness
"I didn't launder the cash, your honor. The robot did."
Crypto enthusiasts protest the trial of Alexey Pertsev
As the multiple Tornado Cash legal cases...
11th Jun 2024
Crypto enthusiasts protest the trial of Alexey Pertsev
As the multiple Tornado Cash legal cases wend their way through courts in the Netherlands and the U.S., we continue to learn how society's money laundering laws will be applied to some of the more unique financial...
FIRE v London
Apr ’26: A record month, house purchase underway
It’s been a beautiful month. I’ve been about a bit, taking in Lincoln, the New Forest, and Oxford as...
4th May 2026
It’s been a beautiful month. I’ve been about a bit, taking in Lincoln, the New Forest, and Oxford as well as enjoying London town itself. The Iran conflict rumbles on, with the USA and Israel having effectively finished the military engagement. Markets have had a very strong...
Commoncog
What’s an Operational Definition Anyway?
Two principles on collecting data, from the field of Statistical Process Control. As with most...
3rd Oct 2023
Two principles on collecting data, from the field of Statistical Process Control. As with most principles in SPC, this is both simpler and more important than you might think.
Mazdak
More Creators Can Now Make Money on YouTube
YouTube Lowers Monetization Requirements for Creators. New Twitter CEO Linda Yaccarino Sets Out...
13th Jun 2023
YouTube Lowers Monetization Requirements for Creators. New Twitter CEO Linda Yaccarino Sets Out Vision for the Platform. YouTube Makes It Easier for Small Creators to Earn Money YouTube is lowering the eligibility requirements for creators to make money from their channels....
Seeking Wisdom
Hello LLMs!
When you are having trouble getting your thinking straight, consider an extreme or simple case. This...
4th Oct 2023
When you are having trouble getting your thinking straight, consider an extreme or simple case. This will often give you the insight needed to move forward. I nodded in agreement when I read the above lines from the book Maxims for Thinking Analytically. ChatGPT took the world by...
Molson Hart's Blog -...
Investment Advice Which Stands the Test of Time
There is investment advice in the book of Jewish religious law (the Talmud).
It advises that you...
5th May 2024
There is investment advice in the book of Jewish religious law (the Talmud).
It advises that you keep 1/3rd of your wealth in business, 1/3rd in land, and 1/3rd in gold.
It's genius.
Why?
First, it's simple.
Second, business, and, to a lesser extent, land, (but not gold, usually)...
Commoncog
How Experts Sensemake
Two decades ago, the US military funded some research into how humans sensemake. This piece is about...
7th Apr 2026
Two decades ago, the US military funded some research into how humans sensemake. This piece is about that theory — the best theory of sensemaking that we have — why it matters for expertise, and how you can apply it to make sense of AI.
Mazdak
Markets are calmer. The bigger questions aren't.
A quick run through the stories that actually matter today — rates, trade, cancer research, robots,...
4 weeks ago
A quick run through the stories that actually matter today — rates, trade, cancer research, robots, and a few things that could affect how business gets done.
balajis.com
Why did Stu Woo of the Wall Street Journal Follow Me to Singapore?
Thirty five million people change countries every year. I'm one of them, and so is Stu Woo.
28th Jul 2026
Thirty five million people change countries every year. I'm one of them, and so is Stu Woo.
Commoncog
You’re Always Selling to a Situation, Not an ICP
One simple idea that falls out of the Heart of Innovation book — that you can use immediately — is...
19th Jun 2025
One simple idea that falls out of the Heart of Innovation book — that you can use immediately — is this idea of selling into situations, not selling to ideal customer profiles. It’s what the pros do anyway.
Commoncog
Danny Meyer’s Business Expertise
Let's break down Danny Meyer's business expertise as an exercise in biography reading.
7th Aug 2024
Let's break down Danny Meyer's business expertise as an exercise in biography reading.
Commoncog
Mental Strength in Judo; Mental Strength in Life
Results of a four month accelerated expertise experiment in Judo. Or: "I expected to learn about...
3rd May 2023
Results of a four month accelerated expertise experiment in Judo. Or: "I expected to learn about deliberate practice but instead learnt a ton about my mental shortcomings."
Citation Needed
Issue 45 – I'm the director now
Rising bitcoin prices bring echoes of the crypto mania from years past, and an ambitious hacker...
5th Dec 2023
Rising bitcoin prices bring echoes of the crypto mania from years past, and an ambitious hacker decides to manifest a new job for themselves.
oftwominds-Charles...
Look Out Below
As I often note, making Plans B and C is free.
The stock market is always looking past "bad...
7th Oct 2025
As I often note, making Plans B and C is free.
The stock market is always looking past "bad news" to front-run "good news."
Once it became clear that the Titanic was indeed going to sink, the stock market would rally on the prospect of sharp growth in lifeboat shares. In...
Citation Needed
Trump says he has “no idea” who he just pardoned
President Trump reacts to condemnations of his recent pardon of Binance founder Changpeng Zhao by...
3rd Nov 2025
President Trump reacts to condemnations of his recent pardon of Binance founder Changpeng Zhao by claiming he doesn’t know who he is.
FIRE v London
June 2025: Show times
I really want to stop mentioning Trump. Even when he sends troops into LA, one of my favourite...
11th Jul 2025
I really want to stop mentioning Trump. Even when he sends troops into LA, one of my favourite cities. But when he launches 30kt bombs on Iran, it is very hard to avoid talking about him. In the context of what Trump’s been up to, the welfare reform screw-ups by the Labour...
balajis.com
The Network State Conference
Come to Singapore on September 22, 2024 to build technodemocracy.
15th Oct 2023
Come to Singapore on September 22, 2024 to build technodemocracy.
Citation Needed
Issue 50 – Bitcoin busts
Governments seize huge quantities of bitcoin, and a few people seem to be yearning for the days of...
2nd Feb 2024
Governments seize huge quantities of bitcoin, and a few people seem to be yearning for the days of peak crypto mania.
Bits about Money
The business of wallets
How digital wallets work, and how payment costs drive a lot of product decisions inside and around...
30th Apr 2024
How digital wallets work, and how payment costs drive a lot of product decisions inside and around them.
balajis.com
Global Crypto Regulation: Who’s Hot and Who’s Not?
Global crypto regulation is confusing. So I surveyed the information available and created a...
25th May 2022
Global crypto regulation is confusing. So I surveyed the information available and created a heatmap.
Bits about Money
Guys what is wrong with ACATS
Ever transferred assets between brokerages? Impressive, terrifying machinations happened in the...
24th May 2024
Ever transferred assets between brokerages? Impressive, terrifying machinations happened in the background. No cats were harmed.
Molson Hart's Blog -...
Why We Shouldn’t “Buy the Dip”
“Buying the dip” is buy stocks whenever there is a short-term decline in stock prices, under the...
29th May 2023
“Buying the dip” is buy stocks whenever there is a short-term decline in stock prices, under the assumption that asset prices will quickly revert, enabling you to make money.
This article explains why a government-driven culture of “buying the dip” can be damaging to you and...
Commoncog
Dell's Capital Expertise
We trace Michael Dell's skill at the art of capital in business, and use it to examine how skill at...
1st Jul 2023
We trace Michael Dell's skill at the art of capital in business, and use it to examine how skill at capital allows you to make moves that aren't available to a novice business operator.
Seeking Wisdom
Embeddings – Part 2
This is the 9th post in my series on building a toy GPT. For better understanding, I recommend...
3rd Dec 2023
This is the 9th post in my series on building a toy GPT. For better understanding, I recommend reading my earlier posts first. Word embeddings convert words into fixed-length numerical arrays. Each number in these arrays corresponds to a specific characteristic of the word, such...
Commoncog
How to Improve at Sensemaking AI?
What we can learn from the disorienting changes hitting the software industry, and how we can use...
3rd May 2026
What we can learn from the disorienting changes hitting the software industry, and how we can use that to improve at sensemaking this uncertain new technology.
Mazdak
How to Win Friends and Influence People by Dale Carnegie: A Summary and Key Takeaways
Dale Carnegie's How to Win Friends and Influence People is one of the most popular and influential...
13th Oct 2023
Dale Carnegie's How to Win Friends and Influence People is one of the most popular and influential self-help books ever written. First published in 1936, it has sold over 50 million copies and been translated into over 30 languages. The book is a practical guide to improving...
Mazdak
Google: Monopolized?
Is Google too big? For years, the tech giant has dominated the search market, facing little...
1st Dec 2024
Is Google too big? For years, the tech giant has dominated the search market, facing little competition.
Bits about Money
One Regulation E, Two Very Different Regimes
How consumer protection in payments works, why it was designed that way, and why it’s being...
7th Jan 2026
How consumer protection in payments works, why it was designed that way, and why it’s being contested today.
Seeking Wisdom
Few thoughts on life, psychology, and mindset
I’ve been writing my thoughts on life, psychology, and mindset for some time. I’ve considered...
2nd Sep 2023
I’ve been writing my thoughts on life, psychology, and mindset for some time. I’ve considered transferring some of these writings from Notion into this post. In physics, three laws can explain 99% of observations. However, in life, psychology, and mindset, 99 laws can barely...
FIRE v London
Feb ’26: Before Iran
So, for the avoidance of doubt, the end of the month is the last trading day of the month. Which for...
16th Mar 2026
So, for the avoidance of doubt, the end of the month is the last trading day of the month. Which for February, meant Friday February 27th. The fact that the Israelis and the Americans invaded Iran on February 28th is going to impact March, not February. Which is just as well...
Musings on Markets
Just do it! Brand Name Lessons from Nike'sTroubles!
I have spent the last week reading "Shoe Dog", Phil Knight's memoir of how a runner on the Oregon...
1st Oct 2024
I have spent the last week reading "Shoe Dog", Phil Knight's memoir of how a runner on the Oregon University track team built one of the great shoe companies in the world, in Nike. In addition to its entertainment value, and it is a fun book to read, I read it for two...
Seeking Wisdom
Case for indexing
Warren Buffet made a compelling case in favor of indexing in the 2021 Berkshire Hathaway’s AGM. In...
5th Feb 2023
Warren Buffet made a compelling case in favor of indexing in the 2021 Berkshire Hathaway’s AGM. In 1989, 65% of the top 20 global companies were domiciled in Japan. After three decades, 65% of the top 20 global companies are from the US. No companies from Japan made into the top...
Bits about Money
Banking in very uncertain times
We may be in the early stages of a banking crisis: why, what we're doing to avoid it, and what we...
14th Mar 2023
We may be in the early stages of a banking crisis: why, what we're doing to avoid it, and what we may not get about it.
Bits about Money
Fraud Investigation is Believing Your Lying Eyes
The financial industry has paid tens of billions of dollars in tuition on fraud detection. Here are...
6th Feb 2026
The financial industry has paid tens of billions of dollars in tuition on fraud detection. Here are some observations for investigators with badges, press cards, or GoPros.
Musings on Markets
A “Fairly Highly Valued” Market: A Fed Chair Opines on Stocks, but should we listen?
In December 1996, Alan Greenspan used the words "irrational exuberance" to describe the stock market...
6th Oct 2025
In December 1996, Alan Greenspan used the words "irrational exuberance" to describe the stock market at the time, and those words not only became the title of Robert Shiller's cautionary book on market bubbles, but also the beginnings of the belief that central bankers had the...
Mazdak
Apple’s 2025 Product Unveiling: What’s New and What Actually Matters
Apple’s latest keynote delivered a sweeping set of updates across AirPods, iPhones, and the Apple...
9th Sep 2025
Apple’s latest keynote delivered a sweeping set of updates across AirPods, iPhones, and the Apple Watch lineup.
balajis.com
Popups are the new startups
Now you can materialize your cloud community into the real world.
12th Oct 2025
Now you can materialize your cloud community into the real world.
oftwominds-Charles...
The War
That I don't have an analysis or insight to offer doesn't mean I don't care. It simply means there...
1st Mar 2026
That I don't have an analysis or insight to offer doesn't mean I don't care. It simply means there are limits on what we know, and what we do know suggests circumspection.
War seems to demand some response--opinion, analysis, insight--lest it seem that we're uncaring or...
Commoncog
The 2023 Commoncog Recap
Everything that we covered in 2023, and what to expect now that Commoncog has a new direction.
4th Jan 2024
Everything that we covered in 2023, and what to expect now that Commoncog has a new direction.
Musings on Markets
The Greed & Fear Tango: The Markets in April 2025!
I started the month on a trip to Latin America, just as the tariff story hit my newsfeed and the...
3rd May 2025
I started the month on a trip to Latin America, just as the tariff story hit my newsfeed and the market reacted with a sell off that knocked more than $9 trillion in market cap for global equities in the next two days. The month was off to a bad start, and tariffs remained the...
FIRE v London
Sep ’25: Gains continue, and I trim
September was a busy month. In the middle of it we saw a disruptive tube strike. I don’t use the...
11th Oct 2025
September was a busy month. In the middle of it we saw a disruptive tube strike. I don’t use the tube that much so didn’t expect it to affect me much but two important meetings were postponed, one of which still hasn’t happened, so that event has stayed in my memory. Thank...
Bits about Money
Requiem for a bank loan
A brief retrospective on an attractive product First Republic used to offer, and a wider discourse...
16th Jun 2023
A brief retrospective on an attractive product First Republic used to offer, and a wider discourse on the banking crisis.
Commoncog
The Hospitality Solution in Your Business
A look at the main provocation of Will Guidara’s Unreasonable Hospitality: that you can solve...
11th Sep 2024
A look at the main provocation of Will Guidara’s Unreasonable Hospitality: that you can solve (certain) business problems with hospitality, and that it only takes a little thoughtfulness to do so.
FIRE v London
April ’24: Juggling cash as new UK tax year begins
The temperature in the Middle East got even hotter in April, with Israel and Iran trading attacks on...
11th May 2024
The temperature in the Middle East got even hotter in April, with Israel and Iran trading attacks on each other’s sovereign buildings/territory. Somehow World War III has never really seemed in danger of breaking out but it is a reminder that only change is constant. Over in New...
Bits about Money
Anatomy of a credit card rewards program
Credit card rewards are mostly funded out of interchange, a fee paid by businesses to accept cards.
29th Mar 2024
Credit card rewards are mostly funded out of interchange, a fee paid by businesses to accept cards.
Citation Needed
Issue 81 – Crypto crime is legal
Trump continues to dismantle crypto enforcement while expanding his personal crypto empire
8th Apr 2025
Trump continues to dismantle crypto enforcement while expanding his personal crypto empire
Citation Needed
Issue 61 – Soft war by the enemy
How will recent Supreme Court decisions affect the crypto world? Also, more absurdity from the...
5th Jul 2024
How will recent Supreme Court decisions affect the crypto world? Also, more absurdity from the crypto lobby, and some new regulatory actions.
Commoncog
Goodhart's Law Isn't as Useful as You Might Think
Goodhart's Law is useless. It tells you about a phenomenon, but it doesn't tell you how to solve it....
11th Jan 2023
Goodhart's Law is useless. It tells you about a phenomenon, but it doesn't tell you how to solve it. We look at how organisations actually prevent Goodhart's Law, and illustrate this with Amazon's Weekly Business Review as an example.
Bits about Money
A window into modern loan origination
A four party consortium can underwrite, fund, and execute a consumer loan in 15 minutes. Here's how.
10th Oct 2025
A four party consortium can underwrite, fund, and execute a consumer loan in 15 minutes. Here's how.
Mazdak
Bank of Canada Holds Rates Steady, Inflation Progress Seen as Insufficient
The Bank of Canada (BoC) opted to maintain its key interest rate at 5% today, signaling a cautious...
6th Mar 2024
The Bank of Canada (BoC) opted to maintain its key interest rate at 5% today, signaling a cautious stance on inflation despite recent declines. Governor Tiff Macklem acknowledged progress in bringing inflation down to 2.9% in January, but emphasized the need for continued...
Bits about Money
Debanking (and Debunking?)
Crypto advocates kicked off a recent, somewhat politicized, discussion of debanking. Strap in for...
9th Dec 2024
Crypto advocates kicked off a recent, somewhat politicized, discussion of debanking. Strap in for scintillating banking compliance trivia.
Mazdak
Claude vs. ChatGPT: A Comprehensive Comparison
In today’s rapidly evolving AI landscape, two names stand out in the realm of conversational...
4th Mar 2025
In today’s rapidly evolving AI landscape, two names stand out in the realm of conversational assistants—Anthropic’s Claude and OpenAI’s ChatGPT. Although both are built on large language models, they diverge sharply in design philosophy, technical implementation, safety...
Molson Hart's Blog -...
THE SLOW, EXCRUCIATING, DISASTEROUS DUMBING DOWN OF AMERICA
Austin is a more pleasant place to live than Dallas because people are smarter on average.
This does...
24th Sep 2023
Austin is a more pleasant place to live than Dallas because people are smarter on average.
This does not mean there are not smart people in Dallas. There are. What it does mean is the typical Austinite is just a little sharper.
This makes for more pleasant conversations. It’s...
Bits about Money
The business of check cashing
Check cashing, as a business, is a poorly understood "alternative" financial service.
30th Jan 2024
Check cashing, as a business, is a poorly understood "alternative" financial service.
Commoncog
There Is No Truth in Business, Only Knowledge
'Knowledge' here is defined as 'theories or models that help you predict better'. How an idea from...
4th Apr 2023
'Knowledge' here is defined as 'theories or models that help you predict better'. How an idea from W. Edwards Deming may well be a working philosophy of business.
The Rational Walk
Minimal Impact to Insurers from Icelandic Volcano Eruption
At least for now, most air travel restrictions caused by the eruption of the Eyjafjallajökull...
11th Aug 2026
At least for now, most air travel restrictions caused by the eruption of the Eyjafjallajökull volcano have been lifted throughout Europe.
Farnam Street
Evaluating Information: Find the Signal in the Noise
We are drowning in information. Most of that information is irrelevant. If only we could sort what...
3rd Aug 2022
We are drowning in information. Most of that information is irrelevant. If only we could sort what matters from what doesn’t. The good news is that you can train your brain to evaluate the quality of information. Not only can you quickly determine if someone knows what they are...
Bits about Money
Bits about Money yearly recap and plans
What we covered in 2024, what are plans are in 2025, and a solicitation for supporting memberships.
15th Jan 2025
What we covered in 2024, what are plans are in 2025, and a solicitation for supporting memberships.
The Diff
Should Congress be Allowed to Trade?
Plus! Norms Trading; Point-of-Sale; Trade Trench Warfare; AI and Ads; Bluffing Your Way to Better...
1st May 2025
Plus! Norms Trading; Point-of-Sale; Trade Trench Warfare; AI and Ads; Bluffing Your Way to Better Management
Seeking Wisdom
Focus on the process, not the outcome
Woorkeri Raman, a former Indian cricketer and former coach of the India women’s national cricket...
12th Aug 2024
Woorkeri Raman, a former Indian cricketer and former coach of the India women’s national cricket team, has two non-negotiables. As an offspinner, you must never get cut, and you must never get driven through the covers. Even when Ravichandran Ashwin takes five wickets, Raman will...
oftwominds-Charles...
The Irresistible Temptations of Centralized Power
The only "reform" that changes our lives in a fundamentally positive way is radical decentralization...
2 weeks ago
The only "reform" that changes our lives in a fundamentally positive way is radical decentralization via distributing centralized power.
Presidents like to deal with the CEOs of corporate monopolies for self-evident reasons: Rather than engage in the tedious, contentious...
Calculated Risk
May 2nd COVID Update: COVID Deaths Continue to Decline
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios.
For deaths, I'm...
2nd May 2025
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios.
For deaths, I'm currently using 4 weeks ago for "now", since the most recent three weeks will be revised significantly.
Note: "Effective May 1, 2024, hospitals are no longer required to report...
FIRE v London
Nov ’23 revalues the future
In the news It has been quite a busy month out there. The Israel/Gaza crisis continues. Public...
5th Dec 2023
In the news It has been quite a busy month out there. The Israel/Gaza crisis continues. Public opinion is shifting against the Israel government here, even in North London – which would normally be one of the most sympathetic neighbourhoods outside Tel Aviv. The Ukrainians are...
Bits about Money
The Long Shadow of Checks
A lot of more modern financial infrastructure follows the paths blazed by checks, at least in the...
13th Dec 2023
A lot of more modern financial infrastructure follows the paths blazed by checks, at least in the U.S.
Seeking Wisdom
Stay the course
I spend a couple of weeks every February keeping up with my investments, timing it to coincide with...
5th Mar 2024
I spend a couple of weeks every February keeping up with my investments, timing it to coincide with the release of Buffett’s annual letter to shareholders. I found something interesting while performing this ritual this time. I came across Aswath Damodaran’s website, where he has...
Musings on Markets
Country Risk: My 2024 Data Update
After the 2008 market crisis, I resolved that I would be far more organized in my assessments and...
24th Jul 2024
After the 2008 market crisis, I resolved that I would be far more organized in my assessments and updating of equity risk premiums, in the United States and abroad, as I looked at the damage that can be inflicted on intrinsic value by significant shifts in risk premiums, i.e., my...
Citation Needed
Issue 76 – Tripartisan legislation
Crypto exchanges face legal troubles, and Trump’s crypto empire grows as regulations are slashed and...
6th Feb 2025
Crypto exchanges face legal troubles, and Trump’s crypto empire grows as regulations are slashed and enforcement is sidelined.
Mazdak
OpenAI is not becoming a for-profit company after all.
In a significant reversal, OpenAI announced on May 5, 2025, that it will remain under the control of...
5th May 2025
In a significant reversal, OpenAI announced on May 5, 2025, that it will remain under the control of its nonprofit entity, abandoning earlier plans to restructure as a for-profit company.
Mazdak
Markets Under Pressure: What Really Happens When the World Feels Unstable
When global tension rises, investors instinctively reach for the exit.
19th Jan 2026
When global tension rises, investors instinctively reach for the exit.
FIRE v London
Jan ’24: A giant tax bill lands
One of several highlights for me in January was visiting Salisbury cathedral, which I did on an...
10th Feb 2024
One of several highlights for me in January was visiting Salisbury cathedral, which I did on an impulse while travelling back from the Coastal Folly. My main frame of reference to the cathedral being those notorious Russian nerve agent assassins citing it as their reason for...
The Diff
The One-Big-Side-Bet Model of Wealth Creation
Plus! Diff Jobs; Building Japan's Financial Ecosystem; The New Balance of Trade; Where Return on...
2nd Dec 2024
Plus! Diff Jobs; Building Japan's Financial Ecosystem; The New Balance of Trade; Where Return on Investment Goes; Broken ETFs; Swipe Fees and Accounting
Commoncog
Using the Quartz Crisis to Make Sense of Technological Disruption
Also: the quartz crisis isn’t really about quartz at all. A sensemaking exercise for those who want...
3rd Jul 2026
Also: the quartz crisis isn’t really about quartz at all. A sensemaking exercise for those who want to get better at making sense of possible AI disruption.
balajis.com
All Property Becomes Cryptography
For 99%+ of what's valuable, for every financial asset and capital asset, we will secure it onchain.
28th Jul 2025
For 99%+ of what's valuable, for every financial asset and capital asset, we will secure it onchain.
Bits about Money
Money laundering and AML compliance
A brief overview of what money laundering is, what financial institutions do about it, and why.
10th Feb 2023
A brief overview of what money laundering is, what financial institutions do about it, and why.
Citation Needed
We can have a different web
Many yearn for the “good old days” of the web. We could have those good old days back — or something...
1st May 2024
Many yearn for the “good old days” of the web. We could have those good old days back — or something even better — and if anything, it would be easier now than it ever was.
oftwominds-Charles...
The Joys and Tragedies of Naivete
Our naivete is being exploited so ruthlessly and with such abandon that the golden age of the Big...
5th Aug 2026
Our naivete is being exploited so ruthlessly and with such abandon that the golden age of the Big Con is consuming itself.
Naivete is interesting because it's so easily confused with confidence, native optimism, youthful enthusiasm, and a host of delusions, including...
Calculated Risk
Question #3 for 2025: What will the unemployment rate be in December 2025?
Earlier I posted some questions on my blog for next year: Ten Economic Questions for 2025. Some of...
1st Jan 2025
Earlier I posted some questions on my blog for next year: Ten Economic Questions for 2025. Some of these questions concern real estate (inventory, house prices, housing starts, new home sales), and I posted thoughts on those in the newsletter (others like GDP and employment will...
Musings on Markets
An Ode to Restraint: Lessons from the Tim Cook Legacy
Through time, we have glorified conquerors and empire builders in politics, civic life and business,...
6th May 2026
Through time, we have glorified conquerors and empire builders in politics, civic life and business, from Alexander the Great and Genghis Khan to the tech titans of today. That is no surprise, since these individuals have oversized personas and often change the course of history,...
Commoncog
Putting Amazon’s PR/FAQ to Practice
What it's like putting Amazon's famed Working Backwards process to practice in a small company...
8th Sep 2022
What it's like putting Amazon's famed Working Backwards process to practice in a small company context, and what was surprising and difficult about it.
Farnam Street
The Winner’s Edge
A lot of otherwise talented people are too pessimistic to actually do anything. They are paralyzed...
19th Apr 2023
A lot of otherwise talented people are too pessimistic to actually do anything. They are paralyzed by risks that don’t exist and greatly exaggerate them where they do, preventing them from being one of the best. Consider this lightly edited excerpt from a conversation between...
oftwominds-Charles...
AI Data Centers Are Not the Railroads of Today
The AI boom shares all the risk profiles of previous speculative manias but lacks society-wide...
1st Jun 2026
The AI boom shares all the risk profiles of previous speculative manias but lacks society-wide benefits while generating fast-metastasizing negative consequences and costs.
The idea that the current bubble in AI data centers is an echo of the railroad-construction bubble of...
oftwominds-Charles...
The Power of Our Behavior
Why is any reduction in consumption posed in terms of unbearable sacrifice, when no sacrifices are...
23rd Jan 2025
Why is any reduction in consumption posed in terms of unbearable sacrifice, when no sacrifices are necessary to consequentially reduce consumption?
When we think of the word power, we associate it with external forces: energy, technology, the government, etc. But our own...
Farnam Street
Lessons on Leadership: Michael Abrashoff on Turning the Worst Ship in the Navy into the Best
Michael Abrashoff was in his mid-thirties when he took command of the USS Benfold, a guided missile...
23rd Oct 2022
Michael Abrashoff was in his mid-thirties when he took command of the USS Benfold, a guided missile destroyer and one of the worst-performing ships in the navy. Despite her potency, the “dysfunctional ship had a sullen crew that resented being there and could not wait to get out...
Commoncog
Letter to a Young Person Worrying About AI
It is a common misperception that you must be able to predict the future to do well. But it’s...
20th Oct 2025
It is a common misperception that you must be able to predict the future to do well. But it’s possible to act without prediction, even in the face of AI. This is how.
balajis.com
Bond Villain
When Powell devalued bonds, he destroyed the economy.
4th Jul 2023
When Powell devalued bonds, he destroyed the economy.
Musings on Markets
The Wisdom and Madness of Crowds: Market Prices as Political Predictors!
In this, the first full week in November 2024, the big news stories of this week are political, as...
7th Nov 2024
In this, the first full week in November 2024, the big news stories of this week are political, as the US presidential election reached its climactic moment on Tuesday, but I don't write about politics, not because I do not have political views, but because I reserve those views...
FIRE v London
Dec ’23 – 2023 in review
It’s the start of a calendar year. Let’s take a look at what 2023 did to me financially. I’m...
2nd Jan 2024
It’s the start of a calendar year. Let’s take a look at what 2023 did to me financially. I’m following the same structure I’ve used for the last few years (2022, 2021, and 2020). Overall, 2023 was a good year on almost all measures – thanks in particular to Q4 which saw the US...
Moneyness
Setelinleikkaus: When Finns snipped their cash in half to curb inflation
On the last day of 1945, with World War II finally behind it, Finland's government announced a new...
8th Nov 2024
On the last day of 1945, with World War II finally behind it, Finland's government announced a new and very strange policy.
All Finns were required to take out a pair of scissors and snip their banknotes in half. This was known in Finland as setelinleikkaus, or banknote cutting....
FIRE v London
Jan ’23: Mr Market defuses my tax bombshell
January is always a miserable month to be in London. Thankfully I managed to get away a bit during...
1st Feb 2023
January is always a miserable month to be in London. Thankfully I managed to get away a bit during the month (not to Davos, no), and enjoy myself in London despite the wintry weather. What you’re paying for in Mayfair these days Market movements in January The markets on the...
Commoncog
The Capital Cycle
What a famous investing framework — part of the modern canon of value investing — tells us about the...
20th Sep 2023
What a famous investing framework — part of the modern canon of value investing — tells us about the expertise of capital in business.
Musings on Markets
For the fun of it: An Open House for my Spring 2025 Classes
I am a teacher at heart, and every year, for more than two decades, I have invited people to join me...
11th Dec 2024
I am a teacher at heart, and every year, for more than two decades, I have invited people to join me in the classes that I teach at the Stern School of Business at New York University. Since I teach these classes only in the spring, and the first sessions for each of the classes...
balajis.com
Gil Duran Faked A Quote For the New Republic
Then they stealth edited the piece. They knew they'd committed libel.
1st May 2024
Then they stealth edited the piece. They knew they'd committed libel.
FIRE v London
Sep 23: Antisocial markets
For some reason shoplifting is in the news. There’s evidently an epidemic of it. Not just in the UK,...
8th Oct 2023
For some reason shoplifting is in the news. There’s evidently an epidemic of it. Not just in the UK, but wider afield too – hence major brands pulling out of cities like San Francisco. From what I hear there is a general increase in antisocial behaviour, dating from the covid-19...
Mazdak
OpenAI Launches GPT‑4.1: What You Need to Know About the New Family of AI Models
OpenAI has officially released the GPT‑4.1 family — and it’s more than just a minor upgrade.
14th Apr 2025
OpenAI has officially released the GPT‑4.1 family — and it’s more than just a minor upgrade.
Bits about Money
Credit card debt collection
Credit card debt is the waste stream of consumer finance. The debt collection industry ends up being...
11th Aug 2023
Credit card debt is the waste stream of consumer finance. The debt collection industry ends up being sordid, for complex structural and microeconomic reasons.
balajis.com
The Network School Fellowship
Anyone from anywhere can apply for $100k in funding at ns.com.
18th Apr 2025
Anyone from anywhere can apply for $100k in funding at ns.com.
Commoncog
Business Reality Without Frameworks
A paradox: why it’s important to think about business without abstractions, even as we from what’s...
21st Oct 2024
A paradox: why it’s important to think about business without abstractions, even as we from what’s come before.
Musings on Markets
AI Scenarios: From Doomsday Destruction to Do-Nothing Bots!
When Chat GPT made its debut on November 30, 2022, it unleashed the hype of AI, and in the three...
4th Mar 2026
When Chat GPT made its debut on November 30, 2022, it unleashed the hype of AI, and in the three years since, AI has taken on an outsized role not just in markets, but also in our lives. For much of the time, the AI story has been told by its advocates and its salespeople, and...
Bits about Money
Fiction and Finance
Recommendations of works of fiction of interest to financial practitioners or enthusiasts.
7th Oct 2024
Recommendations of works of fiction of interest to financial practitioners or enthusiasts.
FIRE v London
Nov ’25: Coastal Folly loan repaid
Trump dominated the headlines again. This time partly due to some very biased editing by the BBC of...
14th Dec 2025
Trump dominated the headlines again. This time partly due to some very biased editing by the BBC of a Panorama show about Trump before the US election. There was also the omnipresent UK Budget. Which has had more than enough coverage. I did a ‘damage assessment‘ at the time and...
balajis.com
The Mirrortable
Mirrortables are to cap tables what stablecoins are to fiat currencies. They streamline and...
26th Dec 2021
Mirrortables are to cap tables what stablecoins are to fiat currencies. They streamline and internationalize the logistical mess of angel investing.
Seeking Wisdom
A Few Books and Resources I’ve Found Useful Over the Years
If someone had told me three and a half years ago that there would be something called ChatGPT that...
31st Dec 2025
If someone had told me three and a half years ago that there would be something called ChatGPT that could answer questions across almost any discipline, I would have called them a lunatic. And yet, here we are. That’s exactly what ChatGPT does today. I can ask it coding...
Seeking Wisdom
It’s a treasure trove of health insights!
Use Insulin wisely Life on Earth started simple. For nearly 2 billion years, tiny single-celled...
21st Oct 2024
Use Insulin wisely Life on Earth started simple. For nearly 2 billion years, tiny single-celled organisms dominated. Then, a lucky accident changed everything. One cell swallowed another, and the swallowed cell became mitochondria, the powerhouse of complex cells. This chance...
Bits about Money
Deposit insurance maximization as a service
In the wake of the recent banking crisis, there is some attention to deposit insurance limits. Some...
5th Apr 2023
In the wake of the recent banking crisis, there is some attention to deposit insurance limits. Some products increase them; here is how.
Mazdak
Google’s New AI Summaries in Discover: The Next Blow to Publishers?
If you work in media or publishing, brace yourself — another platform update from Google is quietly...
15th Jul 2025
If you work in media or publishing, brace yourself — another platform update from Google is quietly shifting the ground beneath us.
The Diff
We Still Have No Idea Whether Passive Investing is a Meaningful Risk
Plus! Complements and Strategy; Privacy, Competition, and Scale; Platforms and Ownership; KYC;...
26th Nov 2024
Plus! Complements and Strategy; Privacy, Competition, and Scale; Platforms and Ownership; KYC; Tariff Man
Citation Needed
Issue 69 – Nice
Coinbase threatens me that continuing to report on their activities would be “.... unwise”. Also,...
2nd Nov 2024
Coinbase threatens me that continuing to report on their activities would be “.... unwise”. Also, election spending hits a fever pitch, with several new crypto PACs coming out of the woodwork.
The Diff
What Kills Cartels?
Plus! Diff Jobs; Strategic Investments; Media Form Factors; Fees; Critical Minerals; Brand Names
2nd Feb 2026
Plus! Diff Jobs; Strategic Investments; Media Form Factors; Fees; Critical Minerals; Brand Names
The Rational Walk
Warren Buffett on Berkshire’s Valuation
Warren Buffett has typically avoided commenting on Berkshire's stock price, but he has provided some...
3rd Mar 2025
Warren Buffett has typically avoided commenting on Berkshire's stock price, but he has provided some clues that are worth considering.
Moneyness
Why sanctions didn’t stop Russia's Garantex from using stablecoins
Stablecoins, a new type of financial institution, are unique in two ways. First, they use...
2nd Apr 2025
Stablecoins, a new type of financial institution, are unique in two ways. First, they use decentralized databases like Ethereum and Tron to run their platforms. Secondly, and more important for the purposes of this article, they grant access to almost anyone, no questions...
Citation Needed
Issue 94 – Backdoor deals
Trump is still corrupt, a core developer warns bitcoin won’t survive an upcoming code change, and...
8th Oct 2025
Trump is still corrupt, a core developer warns bitcoin won’t survive an upcoming code change, and crypto lenders are ratcheting up leverage like it’s 2022.
Mazdak
⚖️ Copyright Law and Generative AI
Generative AI is revolutionizing the way we create, but it's also raising complex legal questions...
1st Dec 2023
Generative AI is revolutionizing the way we create, but it's also raising complex legal questions about copyright law. 🤯 What's the Issue? 🤔 Copyright law protects original works created by humans. But what about AI-generated content? Is it protected by copyright? 🤔
Commoncog
Setting the Business Expertise Series Free
Removing the paywall on The Business Expertise Series, which covers the work of Lia DiBello and her...
6th Jun 2023
Removing the paywall on The Business Expertise Series, which covers the work of Lia DiBello and her collaborators.
balajis.com
Too Fake to Tell
US government stats aren't reliable. More importantly, neither are US government bonds.
5th Jun 2023
US government stats aren't reliable. More importantly, neither are US government bonds.
Commoncog
All the Demand Ideas from The Heart of Innovation, Simply Stated
All the ideas of the Heart of Innovation, compressed into one piece.
3rd Mar 2026
All the ideas of the Heart of Innovation, compressed into one piece.
FIRE v London
Dec ’25: 2025 in review
It’s over. The year of 2025, the thirteenth year I’ve been systematically tracking my investment...
19th Jan 2026
It’s over. The year of 2025, the thirteenth year I’ve been systematically tracking my investment portfolio every month, is over. One of the reasons I blog is to track my performance with a bit more discipline and rigour than I might manage otherwise. And part of that process is...
balajis.com
What are the Key Properties of Bitcoin?
There are plenty of unwritten rules when it comes to proposing protocol changes in Bitcoin. Some are...
11th Jan 2025
There are plenty of unwritten rules when it comes to proposing protocol changes in Bitcoin. Some are philosophical, some are technical, and some are a blend.
Commoncog
Activist Investing in Asian Conglomerates
How do Asian conglomerates play in capital markets, given pliable governments and weak regulators?...
3rd Mar 2025
How do Asian conglomerates play in capital markets, given pliable governments and weak regulators? We examine the career of one activist investor, to see what that tells us about the Asian tycoons we’ve been studying.
oftwominds-Charles...
Disney World's New Theme Park: The White House and Congress
A "Pirates of the Caribbean" themed experience is planned, where the taxpayers are repeatedly robbed...
1st Apr 2026
A "Pirates of the Caribbean" themed experience is planned, where the taxpayers are repeatedly robbed by a motley crew of miscreants.
In a blockbuster deal, an obscure federal agency has granted Disney the rights to develop the White House and Congress as a new FantasyLand...
Molson Hart's Blog -...
Brainwashing for Confidence
My mom brainwashed me to be confident.
She told me over and over that I was great and destined for...
15th Apr 2026
My mom brainwashed me to be confident.
She told me over and over that I was great and destined for great things.
And it worked.
To this day, when I lose or make a mistake, I get mad, but I always wind up where my mother left me:
“You’re great. All you need is more practice.”
And...
FIRE v London
Nov ’24: 3x
London life I’ve been keeping busy as winter in London sets in. The Christmas lights are all out and...
7th Dec 2024
London life I’ve been keeping busy as winter in London sets in. The Christmas lights are all out and looking resplendent, and both the West End and the City are feeling pretty buzzy. For all the general ‘UK stuck in the weeds’ economic commentary, we feel a long way from any talk...
Musings on Markets
Trillion Dollar Market Caps: Fairy Tale Pricing or Business Marvels?
Stock markets have always rewarded winners with large capitalizations, and with each new threshold,...
3rd Dec 2025
Stock markets have always rewarded winners with large capitalizations, and with each new threshold, the questions begin anew of whether animal spirits or fundamentals are driving the numbers. A few weeks ago, Nvidia seemed unstoppable as its market capitalization crested $5...
Musings on Markets
Sovereign Ratings, Default Risk and Markets: The Moody's Downgrade Aftermath!
I was on a family vacation in August 2011 when I received an email from a journalist asking me what...
2nd Jun 2025
I was on a family vacation in August 2011 when I received an email from a journalist asking me what I thought about the S&P ratings downgrade for the US. Since I stay blissfully unaware of most news stories and things related to markets when I am on the beach, I had to look up...
Commoncog
The Joy of Small Markets
If you want to get rich, the irony is that small markets are often better than large ones.
2nd Sep 2025
If you want to get rich, the irony is that small markets are often better than large ones.
Commoncog
Announcing the Commoncog Case Library Public Beta
We're testing a cognitive flexibility theory-driven learning library, designed to accelerate...
24th Aug 2022
We're testing a cognitive flexibility theory-driven learning library, designed to accelerate business expertise. Find out more.
Musings on Markets
Data Update 1 for 2025: The Draw (and Danger) of Data
For the last four decades, I have spent the first week of each year collecting and analyzing data on...
10th Jan 2025
For the last four decades, I have spent the first week of each year collecting and analyzing data on publicly traded companies and sharing what I find with anyone who is interested. It is the end of the first full week in 2025, and my data update for the year is now up and...
Mazdak
LinkedIn Goes All In on Vertical Video
For years, platforms like TikTok, Instagram Reels, and YouTube Shorts have dominated the short-form...
4th Feb 2025
For years, platforms like TikTok, Instagram Reels, and YouTube Shorts have dominated the short-form video space.
FIRE v London
June ’23: The hottest ever
June saw UK’s former PM Mr Johnson leave parliament. Good riddance. I suspect we haven’t seen or...
15th Jul 2023
June saw UK’s former PM Mr Johnson leave parliament. Good riddance. I suspect we haven’t seen or (definitely) read the last of him but having him out of Westminster is at least a bit safer than him inside. Closer to (my Coastal Folly) home, there has been a sad story in...
Seeking Wisdom
Modeling Life: Foundations
Herman Wouk was researching for a novel he planned to write about World War II. He interviewed...
7th Apr 2024
Herman Wouk was researching for a novel he planned to write about World War II. He interviewed several physicists at Caltech who had worked on the bomb, including Richard Feynman. After the interview, Feynman asked Wouk if he knew Calculus. “No,” said Wouk. To which Feynman...
Citation Needed
Issue 63 – RobConf 2024
Coinbase responds to campaign finance violation allegations, Trump panders to bitcoiners, and I chat...
7th Aug 2024
Coinbase responds to campaign finance violation allegations, Trump panders to bitcoiners, and I chat with Lyn Alden about sexism in bitcoin.
Seeking Wisdom
Modeling Life: Linear Algebra
This is the 4th post in my series summarizing the key takeaways from reading the book Modeling Life....
2nd May 2024
This is the 4th post in my series summarizing the key takeaways from reading the book Modeling Life. I recommend reading my previous posts first to gain a solid understanding on how to model dynamic systems. This post focuses on how linear algebra is employed in modeling dynamic...
FIRE v London
Aug ’23: …
A belated write-up of the month of August. Thinking back a month, two stories pop out for me. One...
18th Sep 2023
A belated write-up of the month of August. Thinking back a month, two stories pop out for me. One was the death of Russian mutineer Yevgeny Prigozhin – a larger-than-life modern day warlord, responsible for the ‘little green men’ at the start of the Russian/Ukraine war in 2014,...
Commoncog
A Few Notes on Moats
Some non-obvious, even surprising things about building competitive moats, including when they might...
11th Feb 2026
Some non-obvious, even surprising things about building competitive moats, including when they might not be necessary.
Mazdak
OpenAI Launches GPT-5
On August 7, 2025, OpenAI officially released GPT-5, its latest flagship model, to the world.
7th Aug 2025
On August 7, 2025, OpenAI officially released GPT-5, its latest flagship model, to the world.
The Rational Walk
What I’ve Been Reading
Thoughts on the books I read in the second quarter of 2025
11th Jul 2025
Thoughts on the books I read in the second quarter of 2025
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