Calculated Risk
May 2nd COVID Update: COVID Deaths Continue to Decline
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios.
For deaths, I'm...
2nd May 2025
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios.
For deaths, I'm currently using 4 weeks ago for "now", since the most recent three weeks will be revised significantly.
Note: "Effective May 1, 2024, hospitals are no longer required to report...
FIRE v London
July ’26: An IPO, and France
It feels as if the World Cup was ages ago, already. Yet only a few weeks ago, I was gripped. And for...
9th Aug 2026
It feels as if the World Cup was ages ago, already. Yet only a few weeks ago, I was gripped. And for once I thought England had a world-class side…. but hey ho, football hasn’t come home for another four years. I had a road trip through France in July, which was lovely. I am…...
oftwominds-Charles...
Why We're Helpless When Things Break Down
Only then do we realize that by optimizing profit and efficiency, we've also optimized systemic...
1st May 2026
Only then do we realize that by optimizing profit and efficiency, we've also optimized systemic failure.
In my essay
AI, Money, Human Nature and the Problem with Problems, I refer to boundary conditions but didn't offer a thorough explanation of the role this concept plays...
Mazdak
OpenAI is not becoming a for-profit company after all.
In a significant reversal, OpenAI announced on May 5, 2025, that it will remain under the control of...
5th May 2025
In a significant reversal, OpenAI announced on May 5, 2025, that it will remain under the control of its nonprofit entity, abandoning earlier plans to restructure as a for-profit company.
Moneyness
Renovatio monetae
This silver pfennig from the Archbishopric of Magdeburg (1152-1192) was subject to a policy of...
8th May 2024
This silver pfennig from the Archbishopric of Magdeburg (1152-1192) was subject to a policy of renovatio monetae. Twice a year whoever held it had to bring it in to be changed for new coins at a rate of four old coins to three new coins. That suggests an annualized tax rate on...
FIRE v London
June ’26: Is zero tax worth the hassle?
Monaco I was lucky enough to go to Monaco for the F1 in June. Something I feel quite strongly about...
19th Jul 2026
Monaco I was lucky enough to go to Monaco for the F1 in June. Something I feel quite strongly about and have written about before on this blog is how strong the monkey brain wiring is for us all to peg ourselves off the next rung up on the ladder. No matter how high up… Continue...
FIRE v London
Apr ’26: A record month, house purchase underway
It’s been a beautiful month. I’ve been about a bit, taking in Lincoln, the New Forest, and Oxford as...
4th May 2026
It’s been a beautiful month. I’ve been about a bit, taking in Lincoln, the New Forest, and Oxford as well as enjoying London town itself. The Iran conflict rumbles on, with the USA and Israel having effectively finished the military engagement. Markets have had a very strong...
Commoncog
Business Ecosystem Change Takes Time
The birth of Sony, and the possibility that private corporations and private individuals can change...
11th Jun 2024
The birth of Sony, and the possibility that private corporations and private individuals can change broader business ecosystems.
Mazdak
Trillions Flow into AI: The New Infrastructure Arms Race
🌐 Big Tech Bets Trillions on AI Infrastructure
26th Jun 2025
🌐 Big Tech Bets Trillions on AI Infrastructure
The Diff
When Labor is Scarce, Equity is the Mezzanine Tranche
Plus! What Goes Up; Refinancing; Investor Relations; Scaling; Infrastructure
2nd Apr 2026
Plus! What Goes Up; Refinancing; Investor Relations; Scaling; Infrastructure
Mazdak
The Best Age to Start Taking Social Security: It's Not What You Think
When you reach full retirement age (FRA), you can start taking Social Security benefits. But you may...
18th Sep 2023
When you reach full retirement age (FRA), you can start taking Social Security benefits. But you may want to consider taking them sooner, even if it means a smaller monthly check. Here's why: Your benefits will grow by 8% per year for each year you delay taking them, up to age...
FIRE v London
July ’25: New high watermark
There wasn’t a huge amount to report from July. Politically/economically I fear the most important...
16th Aug 2025
There wasn’t a huge amount to report from July. Politically/economically I fear the most important event in the UK was the Labour government’s failure to enact its intended welfare reforms. This leaves the government a) unable to control spending b) unable to nudge the economy...
Bits about Money
Bits about Money yearly recap and plans
What we covered in 2024, what are plans are in 2025, and a solicitation for supporting memberships.
15th Jan 2025
What we covered in 2024, what are plans are in 2025, and a solicitation for supporting memberships.
FIRE v London
Aug ’23: …
A belated write-up of the month of August. Thinking back a month, two stories pop out for me. One...
18th Sep 2023
A belated write-up of the month of August. Thinking back a month, two stories pop out for me. One was the death of Russian mutineer Yevgeny Prigozhin – a larger-than-life modern day warlord, responsible for the ‘little green men’ at the start of the Russian/Ukraine war in 2014,...
FIRE v London
August ’25: Warm memories
While the global soap opera of the Gaza crisis, Trump/Putin PR, Ukraine misery etc continued, I have...
11th Sep 2025
While the global soap opera of the Gaza crisis, Trump/Putin PR, Ukraine misery etc continued, I have created some warm memories in August. I spent a bit of time in the New Forest, at both ends, and the middle. Which included a trip to Mudeford, site of the UK’s most expensive...
Mazdak
Canada's Housing Crisis: Is There a Way Out?
Canada's housing market has become a national concern. Soaring prices have pushed homeownership out...
2nd Apr 2024
Canada's housing market has become a national concern. Soaring prices have pushed homeownership out of reach for many, and even renters struggle to find affordable options. The pandemic exacerbated this pre-existing crisis, highlighting the urgent need for solutions. This article...
balajis.com
What are the Key Properties of Bitcoin?
There are plenty of unwritten rules when it comes to proposing protocol changes in Bitcoin. Some are...
11th Jan 2025
There are plenty of unwritten rules when it comes to proposing protocol changes in Bitcoin. Some are philosophical, some are technical, and some are a blend.
Mazdak
OpenAI Launches GPT-5
On August 7, 2025, OpenAI officially released GPT-5, its latest flagship model, to the world.
7th Aug 2025
On August 7, 2025, OpenAI officially released GPT-5, its latest flagship model, to the world.
balajis.com
Popups are the new startups
Now you can materialize your cloud community into the real world.
12th Oct 2025
Now you can materialize your cloud community into the real world.
balajis.com
Gil Duran Faked A Quote For the New Republic
Then they stealth edited the piece. They knew they'd committed libel.
1st May 2024
Then they stealth edited the piece. They knew they'd committed libel.
FIRE v London
Mar ’23: Harvesting tax losses
March has been rather a wet month in London. Wet, and cold. This translates into the ski slopes in...
7th Apr 2023
March has been rather a wet month in London. Wet, and cold. This translates into the ski slopes in the French Alps (finally) having great conditions – sadly too late for me to enjoy. Further north, it’s been a month of big change in Scotland. Nicola Sturgeon, the...
The Rational Walk
Greg Abel’s 2026 Letter to Shareholders
Greg Abel's first letter to Berkshire Hathaway shareholders emphasized the need to keep the...
2nd Mar 2026
Greg Abel's first letter to Berkshire Hathaway shareholders emphasized the need to keep the company's unique culture.
Molson Hart's Blog -...
Brainwashing for Confidence
My mom brainwashed me to be confident.
She told me over and over that I was great and destined for...
15th Apr 2026
My mom brainwashed me to be confident.
She told me over and over that I was great and destined for great things.
And it worked.
To this day, when I lose or make a mistake, I get mad, but I always wind up where my mother left me:
“You’re great. All you need is more practice.”
And...
The Rational Walk
What I’ve Been Reading
Thoughts on the books I read in Q1 2025
3rd Apr 2025
Thoughts on the books I read in Q1 2025
balajis.com
The Bitcoin ETF is the spiritual reversal of Executive Order 6102
Back in 1935, they seized the gold. But now, digital gold is back.
11th Jan 2024
Back in 1935, they seized the gold. But now, digital gold is back.
Farnam Street
The Best Summary of Atlas Shrugged
A brief, no-fluff, summary of Atlas Shrugged by Ayn Rand. If you want to learn how capitalist...
9th Jul 2026
A brief, no-fluff, summary of Atlas Shrugged by Ayn Rand. If you want to learn how capitalist countries become socialist, this book will help you. Let’s dive in. Atlas Shrugged: The Simple Version The world depends on a relatively small number of people who build, invent, and...
Citation Needed
Trump Jr.-advised prediction markets invite bets on president’s demise
President Trump’s deregulatory agenda emboldened prediction markets to push boundaries around...
2nd Sep 2025
President Trump’s deregulatory agenda emboldened prediction markets to push boundaries around permitted event contracts. Now sites advised by his son are allowing bets on his death.
balajis.com
The Network State Conference
Come to Singapore on September 22, 2024 to build technodemocracy.
15th Oct 2023
Come to Singapore on September 22, 2024 to build technodemocracy.
Molson Hart's Blog -...
15 mental Abilities & Traits Which Make You Successful But Are Not on an IQ Test
1. Empathy
2. Dexterity
3. Persuasion
4. Musicality
5. Confidence
6. Ambition
7. Grit
8....
2nd Jun 2024
1. Empathy
2. Dexterity
3. Persuasion
4. Musicality
5. Confidence
6. Ambition
7. Grit
8. Creativity
9. Flexibility
10. Energy
11. Individualism
12. Willpower
13. Stoicisim
14. Objectivity
15. Allure
Moneyness
"I didn't launder the cash, your honor. The robot did."
Crypto enthusiasts protest the trial of Alexey Pertsev
As the multiple Tornado Cash legal cases...
11th Jun 2024
Crypto enthusiasts protest the trial of Alexey Pertsev
As the multiple Tornado Cash legal cases wend their way through courts in the Netherlands and the U.S., we continue to learn how society's money laundering laws will be applied to some of the more unique financial...
Calculated Risk
Question #3 for 2025: What will the unemployment rate be in December 2025?
Earlier I posted some questions on my blog for next year: Ten Economic Questions for 2025. Some of...
1st Jan 2025
Earlier I posted some questions on my blog for next year: Ten Economic Questions for 2025. Some of these questions concern real estate (inventory, house prices, housing starts, new home sales), and I posted thoughts on those in the newsletter (others like GDP and employment will...
Musings on Markets
Country Risk: Drivers, Measures and Investment Implications - The 2026 Edition!
I am a creature of habit in my personal and professional life, and in the context of the content...
15th Jul 2026
I am a creature of habit in my personal and professional life, and in the context of the content that I post online, there is a ritual that I follow with my data updates. I start the year with my general data update online, and follow up with a series of posts where I examine the...
FIRE v London
July ’23: Markets up, Coutts down
It’s been a dismally wet July here in London. About 50% more rainfall than normal (which, before ye...
2nd Aug 2023
It’s been a dismally wet July here in London. About 50% more rainfall than normal (which, before ye scoff, isn’t that much – London is a fairly dry city – drier than Rome and much drier than Sydney). It has been long trousers weather, for the first time in several years. But at...
FIRE v London
Oct ’24: Budgets & broad shoulders
I haven’t seen much of London in October. I’ve been away every weekend in October, partly in the UK...
2nd Nov 2024
I haven’t seen much of London in October. I’ve been away every weekend in October, partly in the UK and partly visiting friends overseas. And now we’re in November, the clocks have gone back, but temperatures haven’t plummeted yet. London feels busy – pubs still have crowds...
Bits about Money
Money laundering and AML compliance
A brief overview of what money laundering is, what financial institutions do about it, and why.
10th Feb 2023
A brief overview of what money laundering is, what financial institutions do about it, and why.
balajis.com
All It Takes Is All You Got
Your assets are the government's collateral.
29th Mar 2024
Your assets are the government's collateral.
The Diff
Who Decides What AI Can Do?
Plus! Diff Jobs; Fun Trades; Insiders; M&A; Two-Tier Rounds; Switching Costs
2nd Mar 2026
Plus! Diff Jobs; Fun Trades; Insiders; M&A; Two-Tier Rounds; Switching Costs
The Diff
What do LLMs Want?
Plus! Governance; Implementation Risk; Jailbreaking; In-Kind Deals; Revalued Inputs
1st Dec 2025
Plus! Governance; Implementation Risk; Jailbreaking; In-Kind Deals; Revalued Inputs
FIRE v London
Sep ’25: Gains continue, and I trim
September was a busy month. In the middle of it we saw a disruptive tube strike. I don’t use the...
11th Oct 2025
September was a busy month. In the middle of it we saw a disruptive tube strike. I don’t use the tube that much so didn’t expect it to affect me much but two important meetings were postponed, one of which still hasn’t happened, so that event has stayed in my memory. Thank...
Musings on Markets
Sovereign Ratings, Default Risk and Markets: The Moody's Downgrade Aftermath!
I was on a family vacation in August 2011 when I received an email from a journalist asking me what...
2nd Jun 2025
I was on a family vacation in August 2011 when I received an email from a journalist asking me what I thought about the S&P ratings downgrade for the US. Since I stay blissfully unaware of most news stories and things related to markets when I am on the beach, I had to look up...
FIRE v London
Dec ’23 – 2023 in review
It’s the start of a calendar year. Let’s take a look at what 2023 did to me financially. I’m...
2nd Jan 2024
It’s the start of a calendar year. Let’s take a look at what 2023 did to me financially. I’m following the same structure I’ve used for the last few years (2022, 2021, and 2020). Overall, 2023 was a good year on almost all measures – thanks in particular to Q4 which saw the US...
Mazdak
Markets are calmer. The bigger questions aren't.
A quick run through the stories that actually matter today — rates, trade, cancer research, robots,...
3 weeks ago
A quick run through the stories that actually matter today — rates, trade, cancer research, robots, and a few things that could affect how business gets done.
Seeking Wisdom
A Few Books and Resources I’ve Found Useful Over the Years
If someone had told me three and a half years ago that there would be something called ChatGPT that...
31st Dec 2025
If someone had told me three and a half years ago that there would be something called ChatGPT that could answer questions across almost any discipline, I would have called them a lunatic. And yet, here we are. That’s exactly what ChatGPT does today. I can ask it coding...
Citation Needed
Issue 94 – Backdoor deals
Trump is still corrupt, a core developer warns bitcoin won’t survive an upcoming code change, and...
8th Oct 2025
Trump is still corrupt, a core developer warns bitcoin won’t survive an upcoming code change, and crypto lenders are ratcheting up leverage like it’s 2022.
Moneyness
Stablecoins are non-fungible, bank deposits are fungible
On Twitter/X, I recently suggested that the network effects of the stablecoin market are massive....
14th Jan 2025
On Twitter/X, I recently suggested that the network effects of the stablecoin market are massive. Tether, which has four times more wallets than all other stablecoins, is locked-in as the stablecoin lingua franca, just like English has been locked-in as the global language of...
Commoncog
Business Reality Without Frameworks
A paradox: why it’s important to think about business without abstractions, even as we from what’s...
21st Oct 2024
A paradox: why it’s important to think about business without abstractions, even as we from what’s come before.
Mazdak
⚖️ Copyright Law and Generative AI
Generative AI is revolutionizing the way we create, but it's also raising complex legal questions...
1st Dec 2023
Generative AI is revolutionizing the way we create, but it's also raising complex legal questions about copyright law. 🤯 What's the Issue? 🤔 Copyright law protects original works created by humans. But what about AI-generated content? Is it protected by copyright? 🤔
FIRE v London
My exits – a post mortem
Readers will know that I dabble with active investing – I pick stocks. Lord, make me passive, but...
4th Feb 2025
Readers will know that I dabble with active investing – I pick stocks. Lord, make me passive, but not yet Rather like The Investor at Monevator, I firmly believe in the merits of low cost index tracking as an investment strategy, but I also enjoy the thrills / intellectual...
FIRE v London
Oct ’25: Trim, trim & trim
October in the markets was one of those slightly giddy months. My portfolio crossed through a big...
9th Nov 2025
October in the markets was one of those slightly giddy months. My portfolio crossed through a big number threshold, and kept going up. The market stats don’t quite tell the whole story. On a constant currency basis, markets rose 2.8%. Non-UK currencies (AUD, EUR, USD) rose...
Farnam Street
Lessons on Leadership: Michael Abrashoff on Turning the Worst Ship in the Navy into the Best
Michael Abrashoff was in his mid-thirties when he took command of the USS Benfold, a guided missile...
23rd Oct 2022
Michael Abrashoff was in his mid-thirties when he took command of the USS Benfold, a guided missile destroyer and one of the worst-performing ships in the navy. Despite her potency, the “dysfunctional ship had a sullen crew that resented being there and could not wait to get out...
Citation Needed
Sam Bankman-Fried: guilty on all charges
Jurors spent less than five hours deliberating before returning the verdict.
3rd Nov 2023
Jurors spent less than five hours deliberating before returning the verdict.
Commoncog
There Is No Truth in Business, Only Knowledge
'Knowledge' here is defined as 'theories or models that help you predict better'. How an idea from...
4th Apr 2023
'Knowledge' here is defined as 'theories or models that help you predict better'. How an idea from W. Edwards Deming may well be a working philosophy of business.
Bits about Money
The business of check cashing
Check cashing, as a business, is a poorly understood "alternative" financial service.
30th Jan 2024
Check cashing, as a business, is a poorly understood "alternative" financial service.
balajis.com
AI is polytheistic, not monotheistic
And ten more thoughts on AI.
3rd Aug 2025
And ten more thoughts on AI.
Mazdak
More Creators Can Now Make Money on YouTube
YouTube Lowers Monetization Requirements for Creators. New Twitter CEO Linda Yaccarino Sets Out...
13th Jun 2023
YouTube Lowers Monetization Requirements for Creators. New Twitter CEO Linda Yaccarino Sets Out Vision for the Platform. YouTube Makes It Easier for Small Creators to Earn Money YouTube is lowering the eligibility requirements for creators to make money from their channels....
Moneyness
Why sanctions didn’t stop Russia's Garantex from using stablecoins
Stablecoins, a new type of financial institution, are unique in two ways. First, they use...
2nd Apr 2025
Stablecoins, a new type of financial institution, are unique in two ways. First, they use decentralized databases like Ethereum and Tron to run their platforms. Secondly, and more important for the purposes of this article, they grant access to almost anyone, no questions...
Bits about Money
Two Americas, one bank branch, and $50,000 cash
Ever wondered what happens if you try to take $50,000 in cash out of a bank? Answer: a year of...
5th Mar 2025
Ever wondered what happens if you try to take $50,000 in cash out of a bank? Answer: a year of investigative journalism.
Mazdak
Markets Under Pressure: What Really Happens When the World Feels Unstable
When global tension rises, investors instinctively reach for the exit.
19th Jan 2026
When global tension rises, investors instinctively reach for the exit.
Mazdak
OpenAI Launches GPT‑4.1: What You Need to Know About the New Family of AI Models
OpenAI has officially released the GPT‑4.1 family — and it’s more than just a minor upgrade.
14th Apr 2025
OpenAI has officially released the GPT‑4.1 family — and it’s more than just a minor upgrade.
Commoncog
The Capital Cycle
What a famous investing framework — part of the modern canon of value investing — tells us about the...
20th Sep 2023
What a famous investing framework — part of the modern canon of value investing — tells us about the expertise of capital in business.
Mazdak
Meta's Fake AI Profiles, the TikTok Ban, Telegram Updates, and Microsoft's $80 Billion AI Investment...
Meta's AI Experiment: What Went Wrong?
4th Jan 2025
Meta's AI Experiment: What Went Wrong?
Citation Needed
Issue 50 – Bitcoin busts
Governments seize huge quantities of bitcoin, and a few people seem to be yearning for the days of...
2nd Feb 2024
Governments seize huge quantities of bitcoin, and a few people seem to be yearning for the days of peak crypto mania.
FIRE v London
June 2025: Show times
I really want to stop mentioning Trump. Even when he sends troops into LA, one of my favourite...
11th Jul 2025
I really want to stop mentioning Trump. Even when he sends troops into LA, one of my favourite cities. But when he launches 30kt bombs on Iran, it is very hard to avoid talking about him. In the context of what Trump’s been up to, the welfare reform screw-ups by the Labour...
FIRE v London
May ’24: UK election called
The month of May seems a little while ago, so I’d better get on and write it up. This will be quick....
14th Jun 2024
The month of May seems a little while ago, so I’d better get on and write it up. This will be quick. The big news in the UK was Rishi Sunak, the outgoing PM, calling a general election for 4 July. Independence-from-the-Tories Day. May was also the month that u-turner/blowharder...
Citation Needed
Issue 76 – Tripartisan legislation
Crypto exchanges face legal troubles, and Trump’s crypto empire grows as regulations are slashed and...
6th Feb 2025
Crypto exchanges face legal troubles, and Trump’s crypto empire grows as regulations are slashed and enforcement is sidelined.
Mazdak
Twitter vs. Instagram Threads: The Battle for the Short-Form Social Media Crown
Twitter and Instagram are two of the most popular social media platforms in the world. They both...
8th Jul 2023
Twitter and Instagram are two of the most popular social media platforms in the world. They both offer users a way to share short-form content, but they have different approaches to how that content is displayed and consumed. Twitter is a more public platform, where anyone can...
Molson Hart's Blog -...
Being an Amazon Seller in 2021; Year in Review
I’m the founder and CEO of Viahart (est. 2010), an e-commerce focused educational toy company. We...
23rd Jan 2022
I’m the founder and CEO of Viahart (est. 2010), an e-commerce focused educational toy company. We did $8.8 million in sales in 2021. This article is going to tell you what it was like to run this business in 2021 vs. 2020, amidst threats like the Amazon aggregators, supply chain...
Citation Needed
Issue 63 – RobConf 2024
Coinbase responds to campaign finance violation allegations, Trump panders to bitcoiners, and I chat...
7th Aug 2024
Coinbase responds to campaign finance violation allegations, Trump panders to bitcoiners, and I chat with Lyn Alden about sexism in bitcoin.
Seeking Wisdom
Modeling Life: Foundations
Herman Wouk was researching for a novel he planned to write about World War II. He interviewed...
7th Apr 2024
Herman Wouk was researching for a novel he planned to write about World War II. He interviewed several physicists at Caltech who had worked on the bomb, including Richard Feynman. After the interview, Feynman asked Wouk if he knew Calculus. “No,” said Wouk. To which Feynman...
Bits about Money
Markets in power
How physics and infrastructure combine to generate (ba dum bum) the power market.
30th Sep 2022
How physics and infrastructure combine to generate (ba dum bum) the power market.
Bits about Money
Why the CrowdStrike bug hit banks hard
Regulation-induced monocultures meet unfortunate but explicable engineering decisions.
31st Jul 2024
Regulation-induced monocultures meet unfortunate but explicable engineering decisions.
The Rational Walk
The Digest #226
Warren Buffett donates $1.15 billion to his family foundations
26th Nov 2024
Warren Buffett donates $1.15 billion to his family foundations
Seeking Wisdom
Make Every Day Count
It was a 2012 evening, and I was driving home from the office. I was worried about finishing a big...
1st Nov 2023
It was a 2012 evening, and I was driving home from the office. I was worried about finishing a big project at work on time. I’d made the journey from the office to my home so many times, my car almost seemed to know the way by itself. My hands were on the wheel, but…
Citation Needed
Issue 71 – (Crypto) banks are not your friends
Celsius’ Alex Mashinsky pleads guilty to fraud, some Tornado Cash sanctions are overturned, and tech...
5th Dec 2024
Celsius’ Alex Mashinsky pleads guilty to fraud, some Tornado Cash sanctions are overturned, and tech billionaires complain about “debanking”.
Bits about Money
Financial systems take a holiday
Ever wondered about what happens when banks are closed or why some apps have operating hours? It's...
29th Feb 2024
Ever wondered about what happens when banks are closed or why some apps have operating hours? It's fascinating.
Molson Hart's Blog -...
America Underestimates the Difficulty of Bringing Manufacturing Back
On April 2nd, 2025, our president announced major new taxes on imports from foreign countries...
6th Apr 2025
On April 2nd, 2025, our president announced major new taxes on imports from foreign countries (“tariffs”), ranging from 10% to 49%. The stated goal is to bring manufacturing back to the United States and to “make America wealthy again”.
These tariffs will not work. In fact, they...
Bits about Money
Fraud Investigation is Believing Your Lying Eyes
The financial industry has paid tens of billions of dollars in tuition on fraud detection. Here are...
6th Feb 2026
The financial industry has paid tens of billions of dollars in tuition on fraud detection. Here are some observations for investigators with badges, press cards, or GoPros.
Mazdak
What Expenses Can You Write Off Against Your Business Income?
Taxes are an inevitable part of running a business, but that doesn't mean you have to pay more than...
6th Feb 2024
Taxes are an inevitable part of running a business, but that doesn't mean you have to pay more than your fair share. Fortunately, the law allows you to deduct certain expenses from your business income, lowering your taxable amount and saving you money. But navigating the world...
FIRE v London
May 2025: market springtime
I’ve had quite a busy May. It’s been a lovely month, featuring a wedding in the country, a trip to...
8th Jun 2025
I’ve had quite a busy May. It’s been a lovely month, featuring a wedding in the country, a trip to the Isle of Wight, my first visit to a dairy farm in 40+ years, a lovely trip to the Cotswolds, and more. If you can identify any of the locations above feel free to shout… Continue...
Musings on Markets
The Corporate Life Cycle: Managing, Valuation and Investing Implications!
As I reveal my ignorance about TikTok trends, social media celebrities and Gen Z slang, my children...
20th Aug 2024
As I reveal my ignorance about TikTok trends, social media celebrities and Gen Z slang, my children are quick to point out my age, and I accept that reality, for the most part. I understand that I am too old to exercise without stretching first or eat a heaping plate of cheese...
FIRE v London
Dec ’25: 2025 in review
It’s over. The year of 2025, the thirteenth year I’ve been systematically tracking my investment...
19th Jan 2026
It’s over. The year of 2025, the thirteenth year I’ve been systematically tracking my investment portfolio every month, is over. One of the reasons I blog is to track my performance with a bit more discipline and rigour than I might manage otherwise. And part of that process is...
oftwominds-Charles...
25 Years of Higher Interest Rates Ahead?
Interest rates are linked to inflation, but they're also linked to risk.
As a result of...
2nd May 2025
Interest rates are linked to inflation, but they're also linked to risk.
As a result of recency bias, where we assume the recent past is a permanent state of affairs, many believe near-zero interest rates are "normal." They aren't. As the chart of 10-year US Treasury...
Calculated Risk
Real Estate Newsletter Articles this Week: New Home Sales Decrease to 657,000 Annual Rate in January
At the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter this week:
Click on graph for larger image.
New Home...
1st Mar 2025
At the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter this week:
Click on graph for larger image.
New Home Sales Decrease to 657,000 Annual Rate in January
Case-Shiller: National House Price Index Up 3.9% year-over-year in December
Inflation Adjusted House Prices 1.0% Below 2022...
Commoncog
Focus Is Saying No To Good Ideas
Several stories about one of the hardest maxims to put to practice in business.
18th Oct 2022
Several stories about one of the hardest maxims to put to practice in business.
Mazdak
How to Win Friends and Influence People by Dale Carnegie: A Summary and Key Takeaways
Dale Carnegie's How to Win Friends and Influence People is one of the most popular and influential...
13th Oct 2023
Dale Carnegie's How to Win Friends and Influence People is one of the most popular and influential self-help books ever written. First published in 1936, it has sold over 50 million copies and been translated into over 30 languages. The book is a practical guide to improving...
Molson Hart's Blog -...
Chinese Labor Isn't Just Cheaper; It’s Better. We Need to Fix That.
A famous newspaper asked me to write an opinion article.
But every time I submitted a draft, they'd...
25th Dec 2025
A famous newspaper asked me to write an opinion article.
But every time I submitted a draft, they'd edit it, changing the message of the piece, even though the article was meant to be my opinion.
Most people would have consented to the edits to have the honor of being in the...
FIRE v London
Sep 23: Antisocial markets
For some reason shoplifting is in the news. There’s evidently an epidemic of it. Not just in the UK,...
8th Oct 2023
For some reason shoplifting is in the news. There’s evidently an epidemic of it. Not just in the UK, but wider afield too – hence major brands pulling out of cities like San Francisco. From what I hear there is a general increase in antisocial behaviour, dating from the covid-19...
FIRE v London
Feb ’23: taking profits
February was cold, but mercifully dry. The days are becoming a welcome bit longer. London is filling...
14th Mar 2023
February was cold, but mercifully dry. The days are becoming a welcome bit longer. London is filling up again, post covid, though Mondays and Fridays remain subdued to put it mildly. Market movements in February In the markets, February started strongly, but then something...
Bits about Money
Demystifying financial leverage
Leverage is actually reasonably easy to understand, both in the math and in the implications for...
11th Nov 2022
Leverage is actually reasonably easy to understand, both in the math and in the implications for financial firms.
Musings on Markets
Just do it! Brand Name Lessons from Nike'sTroubles!
I have spent the last week reading "Shoe Dog", Phil Knight's memoir of how a runner on the Oregon...
1st Oct 2024
I have spent the last week reading "Shoe Dog", Phil Knight's memoir of how a runner on the Oregon University track team built one of the great shoe companies in the world, in Nike. In addition to its entertainment value, and it is a fun book to read, I read it for two...
Musings on Markets
Data Update 9 for 2025: Dividends and Buybacks - Inertia and Me-tooism!
In my ninth (and last) data post for 2025, I look at cash returned by businesses across the world,...
5th Mar 2025
In my ninth (and last) data post for 2025, I look at cash returned by businesses across the world, looking at both the magnitude and the form of that return. I start with a framework for thinking about how much cash a business can return to its owners, and then argue that, in the...
Molson Hart's Blog -...
Amazon’s Pricing Policies Promote Inflation
The state of California has sued Amazon in what may be the biggest antitrust case for 25 years, when...
30th Apr 2023
The state of California has sued Amazon in what may be the biggest antitrust case for 25 years, when 20 states joined the US Department of Justice to sue Microsoft. These cases revolve around whether consumers are harmed by the company’s actions. The case against Amazon focuses...
Molson Hart's Blog -...
The DECIDE Algorithm — A Simple Step-by-Step Method for Converting Idle Time into Productive Action
DECIDE
D - Determine the Bottleneck
E - Engage with the subject matter
C - Clear distractions
I -...
16th Mar 2025
DECIDE
D - Determine the Bottleneck
E - Engage with the subject matter
C - Clear distractions
I - Implement mental models
D - Decide how to proceed
E - Execute next steps
When you’re traveling or waiting for something to happen, instead of listening to a podcast or scrolling on...
Seeking Wisdom
Embeddings – Part 2
This is the 9th post in my series on building a toy GPT. For better understanding, I recommend...
3rd Dec 2023
This is the 9th post in my series on building a toy GPT. For better understanding, I recommend reading my earlier posts first. Word embeddings convert words into fixed-length numerical arrays. Each number in these arrays corresponds to a specific characteristic of the word, such...
Musings on Markets
Country Risk: My 2024 Data Update
After the 2008 market crisis, I resolved that I would be far more organized in my assessments and...
24th Jul 2024
After the 2008 market crisis, I resolved that I would be far more organized in my assessments and updating of equity risk premiums, in the United States and abroad, as I looked at the damage that can be inflicted on intrinsic value by significant shifts in risk premiums, i.e., my...
Mazdak
2024 Tax Strategies for Optimization and Savings
The new year dawns, not just with fresh resolutions, but also the opportunity to reassess and...
3rd Jan 2024
The new year dawns, not just with fresh resolutions, but also the opportunity to reassess and optimize your tax strategy. While taxes may not be the most exhilarating topic, savvy planning can significantly reduce your liability and boost your financial well-being. So, grab your...
FIRE v London
May ’23: Magic megatech
May has been election month. In the UK, some (but not all – and not London) local councils had...
4th Jun 2023
May has been election month. In the UK, some (but not all – and not London) local councils had elections. The Tories took a drubbing, as expected. And overseas the notable election seemed to be Turkey, where autocratic Erdogan won (however fairly) another five year term – taking...
FIRE v London
Nov ’24: 3x
London life I’ve been keeping busy as winter in London sets in. The Christmas lights are all out and...
7th Dec 2024
London life I’ve been keeping busy as winter in London sets in. The Christmas lights are all out and looking resplendent, and both the West End and the City are feeling pretty buzzy. For all the general ‘UK stuck in the weeds’ economic commentary, we feel a long way from any talk...
Commoncog
Is This a Moat: Mailchimp and PayPal’s Algorithmic Advantage
Two case studies of real world competitive advantage, followed by a question: was this a moat or...
12th Dec 2022
Two case studies of real world competitive advantage, followed by a question: was this a moat or not?
Bits about Money
A review of Number Go Up, on crypto shenanigans
A review of Zeke Faux's Number Go Up, with some bonus commentary on financial journalism and Tether...
29th Sep 2023
A review of Zeke Faux's Number Go Up, with some bonus commentary on financial journalism and Tether specifically.
balajis.com
California Is Not A Democracy
It's a one-party state. They hold elections, but the Party always wins.
10th Jun 2024
It's a one-party state. They hold elections, but the Party always wins.
Mazdak
The Ultimate Small Business Hiring Guide
How to Find the Right Fit for Your Team
9th Oct 2024
How to Find the Right Fit for Your Team
Commoncog
You’re Always Selling to a Situation, Not an ICP
One simple idea that falls out of the Heart of Innovation book — that you can use immediately — is...
19th Jun 2025
One simple idea that falls out of the Heart of Innovation book — that you can use immediately — is this idea of selling into situations, not selling to ideal customer profiles. It’s what the pros do anyway.
oftwominds-Charles...
Power and Impunity
Those acting with impunity are confident that their powers or god-like because they appear so in the...
2nd Feb 2026
Those acting with impunity are confident that their powers or god-like because they appear so in the human realm. But there are limits to everything in the human realm.
One of the first things we learned about the Internet is that anything sent via email could readily become...
balajis.com
The Fiat Crisis
This is not a financial crisis. It’s a fiat crisis.
2nd May 2023
This is not a financial crisis. It’s a fiat crisis.
balajis.com
Decentralizing Education with Synthesis
I'm co-leading a round in Synthesis, a startup scaling the custom school built for Elon Musk’s kids.
21st Apr 2022
I'm co-leading a round in Synthesis, a startup scaling the custom school built for Elon Musk’s kids.
Seeking Wisdom
Modeling Life: Linear Algebra
This is the 4th post in my series summarizing the key takeaways from reading the book Modeling Life....
2nd May 2024
This is the 4th post in my series summarizing the key takeaways from reading the book Modeling Life. I recommend reading my previous posts first to gain a solid understanding on how to model dynamic systems. This post focuses on how linear algebra is employed in modeling dynamic...
Commoncog
Putting the Jobs to be Done Interview to Practice
Things we wished someone told us, before we put the JTBD interview to practice.
9th Jul 2025
Things we wished someone told us, before we put the JTBD interview to practice.
Molson Hart's Blog -...
The Fiacracy; A Mental Model for Modern Government
This article will explain the following:
1. What is a Fiacracy
2. How do Fiacracies NOT work
3. How...
10th Aug 2024
This article will explain the following:
1. What is a Fiacracy
2. How do Fiacracies NOT work
3. How Fiacracies work
4. Are Fiacracies sustainable
5. Why Fiacracies matter
1. What is a fiacracy?
It’s government by fiat (money). The driving mechanism by which it works is not...
The Rational Walk
What I’ve Been Reading
Thoughts on the books I read in the second quarter of 2025
11th Jul 2025
Thoughts on the books I read in the second quarter of 2025
Citation Needed
Issue 65 – World Liberty Fiasco
Even the most pro-Trump crypto faithful think Trump’s new crypto scheme is a terrible idea.
6th Sep 2024
Even the most pro-Trump crypto faithful think Trump’s new crypto scheme is a terrible idea.
Commoncog
The Only Thing That Matters
Business skill, as the ability to cut a messy business problem down to a single, most important...
3rd Nov 2025
Business skill, as the ability to cut a messy business problem down to a single, most important thing.
oftwominds-Charles...
Disney World's New Theme Park: The White House and Congress
A "Pirates of the Caribbean" themed experience is planned, where the taxpayers are repeatedly robbed...
1st Apr 2026
A "Pirates of the Caribbean" themed experience is planned, where the taxpayers are repeatedly robbed by a motley crew of miscreants.
In a blockbuster deal, an obscure federal agency has granted Disney the rights to develop the White House and Congress as a new FantasyLand...
FIRE v London
May ’26: Angelic timing
May was an enjoyable month. I kept reasonably busy, as well as doing a bit of travel around the UK....
17th Jun 2026
May was an enjoyable month. I kept reasonably busy, as well as doing a bit of travel around the UK. I visited King Charles’ Poundbury for the first time, as well as the south coast and the Cotswolds for a weekend. Meanwhile, the news has been dominated by Trump’s Iran war, and in...
Commoncog
The Heart of Innovation: Why Most Startups Fail
A theory of demand (and product market fit) that explains it all, and does NOT require ‘pain’ to do...
12th May 2025
A theory of demand (and product market fit) that explains it all, and does NOT require ‘pain’ to do it.
Musings on Markets
Revisiting the SpaceX Valuation: A Post-Prospectus Update!
A few weeks ago, I assessed the value of SpaceX ahead of its initial public offering, with the...
4th Jun 2026
A few weeks ago, I assessed the value of SpaceX ahead of its initial public offering, with the admission that I was making my estimates with drabs of data, some of it coming from unofficial sources. I also promised to revisit my valuation, when the prospectus came out, and now...
Mazdak
LinkedIn Goes All In on Vertical Video
For years, platforms like TikTok, Instagram Reels, and YouTube Shorts have dominated the short-form...
4th Feb 2025
For years, platforms like TikTok, Instagram Reels, and YouTube Shorts have dominated the short-form video space.
Commoncog
Reflections on the Software Dark Factory Q&A
Some thoughts from watching a demo of a Software Dark Factory.
3rd Jun 2026
Some thoughts from watching a demo of a Software Dark Factory.
Molson Hart's Blog -...
It’s Time to Build… Assets?
One of the main reasons for the decline in goods and services in the United States, and to a lesser...
28th Mar 2026
One of the main reasons for the decline in goods and services in the United States, and to a lesser extent, the world, is the financialization of our economies by excessive money printing.
Let's break that down into simpler language.
The quality of the things and services you buy...
Musings on Markets
The Power of Expectations: Nvidia's Earnings and the Market Reaction!
Last Wednesday (August 28), the market waited with bated breath for Nvidia’s earning call, scheduled...
6th Sep 2024
Last Wednesday (August 28), the market waited with bated breath for Nvidia’s earning call, scheduled for after the market closed. That call, at first sight, contained exceptionally good news, with revenues and earnings coming in at stratospheric levels, and above expectations,...
Citation Needed
Citation Needed has a new home
Citation Needed is no longer hosted on Substack. Welcome to my antifascist bar.
5th Jan 2024
Citation Needed is no longer hosted on Substack. Welcome to my antifascist bar.
oftwominds-Charles...
The Irresistible Temptations of Centralized Power
The only "reform" that changes our lives in a fundamentally positive way is radical decentralization...
2 weeks ago
The only "reform" that changes our lives in a fundamentally positive way is radical decentralization via distributing centralized power.
Presidents like to deal with the CEOs of corporate monopolies for self-evident reasons: Rather than engage in the tedious, contentious...
balajis.com
Network School 2025
Network School reopens March 1 with double the capacity. Apply now at ns.com.
2nd Feb 2025
Network School reopens March 1 with double the capacity. Apply now at ns.com.
Commoncog
Goodhart's Law Isn't as Useful as You Might Think
Goodhart's Law is useless. It tells you about a phenomenon, but it doesn't tell you how to solve it....
11th Jan 2023
Goodhart's Law is useless. It tells you about a phenomenon, but it doesn't tell you how to solve it. We look at how organisations actually prevent Goodhart's Law, and illustrate this with Amazon's Weekly Business Review as an example.
The Diff
Longreads + Open Thread
Radio, Startups, History, Bally's, Dead Internet, Caesars
1st Feb 2025
Radio, Startups, History, Bally's, Dead Internet, Caesars
oftwominds-Charles...
The Inevitable Drift Down from "Can't Lose" Owning Stocks to "Can't Win"
Even if an AI program advises selling everything and walking away from the market for five years,...
3rd Nov 2025
Even if an AI program advises selling everything and walking away from the market for five years, how many of us would take this advice?
Only those who experienced the heady euphoria of the late 1990s dot-com bubble in tech stocks know what the shift from "can't lose"...
Citation Needed
Issue 53 – Choose rich
Euphoria has risen along with crypto prices, but nothing has changed from the last bubble.
13th Mar 2024
Euphoria has risen along with crypto prices, but nothing has changed from the last bubble.
Commoncog
Under The Hood
How do you shape employee culture? How do you win employee commitment? Under The Hood has a coherent...
12th Nov 2024
How do you shape employee culture? How do you win employee commitment? Under The Hood has a coherent model for building this skill.
Bits about Money
Anatomy of a credit card rewards program
Credit card rewards are mostly funded out of interchange, a fee paid by businesses to accept cards.
29th Mar 2024
Credit card rewards are mostly funded out of interchange, a fee paid by businesses to accept cards.
oftwominds-Charles...
If We Set Aside Ideology, Is There Anything We Can Agree On?
Just the experiment of setting aside ideological certainties for a moment would be instructive. ...
3rd Mar 2025
Just the experiment of setting aside ideological certainties for a moment would be instructive.
Humans are hard-wired to prefer simplicity over complexity, and this is the foundation of ideology, which like mythology takes a complex world and radically simplifies it to an...
Bits about Money
Guys what is wrong with ACATS
Ever transferred assets between brokerages? Impressive, terrifying machinations happened in the...
24th May 2024
Ever transferred assets between brokerages? Impressive, terrifying machinations happened in the background. No cats were harmed.
Seeking Wisdom
Hello LLMs!
When you are having trouble getting your thinking straight, consider an extreme or simple case. This...
4th Oct 2023
When you are having trouble getting your thinking straight, consider an extreme or simple case. This will often give you the insight needed to move forward. I nodded in agreement when I read the above lines from the book Maxims for Thinking Analytically. ChatGPT took the world by...
Molson Hart's Blog -...
Older Articles I’ve Written
In reverse chronological order:
Starting a Physical Product Company? You’re Gonna Need a Lawyer...
13th Dec 2020
In reverse chronological order:
Starting a Physical Product Company? You’re Gonna Need a Lawyer (October 18, 2020)
The Right to a Nonconsensus Opinion (June 9, 2020)
Never Invest in Anything Made of Metal (May 2, 2020)
Simple 3 Step Strategy to Stop the Coronavirus in the...
balajis.com
Too Fake to Tell
US government stats aren't reliable. More importantly, neither are US government bonds.
5th Jun 2023
US government stats aren't reliable. More importantly, neither are US government bonds.
Commoncog
The Amazon Weekly Business Review
Everything you need to know about the Amazon Weekly Business Review: how it works, why it works, and...
2nd Jul 2024
Everything you need to know about the Amazon Weekly Business Review: how it works, why it works, and how it helps Amazon win.
FIRE v London
Mar ’24: A towering influence
I’ve enjoyed March. I managed to enjoy a few days’ skiing, despite less snow than any of us would...
1st Apr 2024
I’ve enjoyed March. I managed to enjoy a few days’ skiing, despite less snow than any of us would like, in the Austrian alps. Back at home, the sun has been getting stronger, and the evenings have been getting lighter – and now with Summer Time we will enjoy lovely late evenings...
The Diff
Longreads + Open Thread
Funds, Slop, Schools, Lookism, Automation, Bots, Efficiency, Magnitogorsk
1st Aug 2026
Funds, Slop, Schools, Lookism, Automation, Bots, Efficiency, Magnitogorsk
Farnam Street
The Winner’s Edge
A lot of otherwise talented people are too pessimistic to actually do anything. They are paralyzed...
19th Apr 2023
A lot of otherwise talented people are too pessimistic to actually do anything. They are paralyzed by risks that don’t exist and greatly exaggerate them where they do, preventing them from being one of the best. Consider this lightly edited excerpt from a conversation between...
FIRE v London
Nov ’23 revalues the future
In the news It has been quite a busy month out there. The Israel/Gaza crisis continues. Public...
5th Dec 2023
In the news It has been quite a busy month out there. The Israel/Gaza crisis continues. Public opinion is shifting against the Israel government here, even in North London – which would normally be one of the most sympathetic neighbourhoods outside Tel Aviv. The Ukrainians are...
Musings on Markets
Data Update 1 for 2025: The Draw (and Danger) of Data
For the last four decades, I have spent the first week of each year collecting and analyzing data on...
10th Jan 2025
For the last four decades, I have spent the first week of each year collecting and analyzing data on publicly traded companies and sharing what I find with anyone who is interested. It is the end of the first full week in 2025, and my data update for the year is now up and...
Musings on Markets
The Situational Awareness Blow-up: The Collateral Damage from Investing Conviction!
Earlier this year, I was asked what I thought about Leopold Aschenbrenner and I admitted that I knew...
11th Aug 2026
Earlier this year, I was asked what I thought about Leopold Aschenbrenner and I admitted that I knew little about him other than what I had read about him, more in social media, than in the press - that he was a 25-year-old wunderkind who had started at OpenAI but had left to...
Moneyness
Tornado Cash un-OFAC'ed
The next chapter in the Tornado Cash saga just dropped. Last week a court ruled last that Tornado...
5th Dec 2024
The next chapter in the Tornado Cash saga just dropped. Last week a court ruled last that Tornado Cash, a bot that can be used for obfuscating crypto, is safe from being sanctioned.
I first wrote about Tornado Cash in 2021, before its legal troubles began, warning of the risks...
Bits about Money
Open Banking and payments competition
Why the banks really hate fintechs that allow businesses to learn your account number easily.
13th Aug 2025
Why the banks really hate fintechs that allow businesses to learn your account number easily.
Bits about Money
Working title (insurance)
Title insurance is grossly overpriced relative to actual risks involved. Why is that?
30th Jun 2024
Title insurance is grossly overpriced relative to actual risks involved. Why is that?
Bits about Money
The business of wallets
How digital wallets work, and how payment costs drive a lot of product decisions inside and around...
30th Apr 2024
How digital wallets work, and how payment costs drive a lot of product decisions inside and around them.
Commoncog
How to Become Data Driven
The answer, like most things from Statistical Process Control, is more surprising and more obvious...
6th Feb 2023
The answer, like most things from Statistical Process Control, is more surprising and more obvious than you might think.
Farnam Street
Chesterton’s Fence: A Lesson in Second Order Thinking
A core component of making great decisions is understanding the rationale behind previous decisions....
5th Sep 2022
A core component of making great decisions is understanding the rationale behind previous decisions. If we don’t understand how we got “here,” we run the risk of making things much worse. *** When we seek to intervene in any system created by someone, it’s not enough to view...
Commoncog
Data and the Capital Cycle: How Koch Became an Empire
How Koch Industries became an empire. We draw on ideas from both the Becoming Data Driven series and...
11th Dec 2023
How Koch Industries became an empire. We draw on ideas from both the Becoming Data Driven series and the Capital Expertise series.
Bits about Money
Deposit insurance maximization as a service
In the wake of the recent banking crisis, there is some attention to deposit insurance limits. Some...
5th Apr 2023
In the wake of the recent banking crisis, there is some attention to deposit insurance limits. Some products increase them; here is how.
The Diff
Should Congress be Allowed to Trade?
Plus! Norms Trading; Point-of-Sale; Trade Trench Warfare; AI and Ads; Bluffing Your Way to Better...
1st May 2025
Plus! Norms Trading; Point-of-Sale; Trade Trench Warfare; AI and Ads; Bluffing Your Way to Better Management
Commoncog
How to Run Smart Experiments When You Just Don’t Know
How all good entrepreneurs run experiments at the earliest stages of a business, and how you can use...
20th Aug 2025
How all good entrepreneurs run experiments at the earliest stages of a business, and how you can use this approach for your own career.
balajis.com
Why did Stu Woo of the Wall Street Journal Follow Me to Singapore?
Thirty five million people change countries every year. I'm one of them, and so is Stu Woo.
28th Jul 2026
Thirty five million people change countries every year. I'm one of them, and so is Stu Woo.
Musings on Markets
Trillion Dollar Market Caps: Fairy Tale Pricing or Business Marvels?
Stock markets have always rewarded winners with large capitalizations, and with each new threshold,...
3rd Dec 2025
Stock markets have always rewarded winners with large capitalizations, and with each new threshold, the questions begin anew of whether animal spirits or fundamentals are driving the numbers. A few weeks ago, Nvidia seemed unstoppable as its market capitalization crested $5...
The Diff
What Kills Cartels?
Plus! Diff Jobs; Strategic Investments; Media Form Factors; Fees; Critical Minerals; Brand Names
2nd Feb 2026
Plus! Diff Jobs; Strategic Investments; Media Form Factors; Fees; Critical Minerals; Brand Names
FIRE v London
Dec ’24 – 2024 in review
And we’re off, into 2025. Before we get too far, it’s time to take stock (pardon the pun) of 2024....
7th Jan 2025
And we’re off, into 2025. Before we get too far, it’s time to take stock (pardon the pun) of 2024. I’ll follow the 7 point approach I’ve used for the last few years, starting with the wider market context. Q1 How did markets do? December saw falls across most asset classes –...
Farnam Street
Evaluating Information: Find the Signal in the Noise
We are drowning in information. Most of that information is irrelevant. If only we could sort what...
3rd Aug 2022
We are drowning in information. Most of that information is irrelevant. If only we could sort what matters from what doesn’t. The good news is that you can train your brain to evaluate the quality of information. Not only can you quickly determine if someone knows what they are...
oftwominds-Charles...
The Power of Our Behavior
Why is any reduction in consumption posed in terms of unbearable sacrifice, when no sacrifices are...
23rd Jan 2025
Why is any reduction in consumption posed in terms of unbearable sacrifice, when no sacrifices are necessary to consequentially reduce consumption?
When we think of the word power, we associate it with external forces: energy, technology, the government, etc. But our own...
Commoncog
The Joy of Small Markets
If you want to get rich, the irony is that small markets are often better than large ones.
2nd Sep 2025
If you want to get rich, the irony is that small markets are often better than large ones.
The Rational Walk
Greg Abel’s Unique Challenge
Greg Abel takes over as Chief Executive Officer of Berkshire Hathaway on January 1, 2026, a job that...
31st Dec 2025
Greg Abel takes over as Chief Executive Officer of Berkshire Hathaway on January 1, 2026, a job that will involve at least three major challenges.
Commoncog
All the Demand Ideas from The Heart of Innovation, Simply Stated
All the ideas of the Heart of Innovation, compressed into one piece.
3rd Mar 2026
All the ideas of the Heart of Innovation, compressed into one piece.
Commoncog
The 2024 Commoncog Recap
Everything that we covered in 2024, and what to expect in the coming year.
8th Jan 2025
Everything that we covered in 2024, and what to expect in the coming year.
Commoncog
Activist Investing in Asian Conglomerates
How do Asian conglomerates play in capital markets, given pliable governments and weak regulators?...
3rd Mar 2025
How do Asian conglomerates play in capital markets, given pliable governments and weak regulators? We examine the career of one activist investor, to see what that tells us about the Asian tycoons we’ve been studying.
Mazdak
Apple’s 2025 Product Unveiling: What’s New and What Actually Matters
Apple’s latest keynote delivered a sweeping set of updates across AirPods, iPhones, and the Apple...
9th Sep 2025
Apple’s latest keynote delivered a sweeping set of updates across AirPods, iPhones, and the Apple Watch lineup.
FIRE v London
June ’23: The hottest ever
June saw UK’s former PM Mr Johnson leave parliament. Good riddance. I suspect we haven’t seen or...
15th Jul 2023
June saw UK’s former PM Mr Johnson leave parliament. Good riddance. I suspect we haven’t seen or (definitely) read the last of him but having him out of Westminster is at least a bit safer than him inside. Closer to (my Coastal Folly) home, there has been a sad story in...
Musings on Markets
Oil, War and the Global Economy: The Market's Narrative in March 2026
Markets play an expectations game, and in March 2026, we saw the process play out, with all of its...
1st Apr 2026
Markets play an expectations game, and in March 2026, we saw the process play out, with all of its upsides and downsides. The month started with a war in the Middle East, which quickly percolated into soaring oil prices and dropping stock prices, but the overwhelming factor was...
Musings on Markets
The Seven Samurai: How Big Tech Rescued the Market in 2023!
I was planning to finish my last two data updates for 2024, but decided to take a break and look at...
9th Feb 2024
I was planning to finish my last two data updates for 2024, but decided to take a break and look at the seven stocks (Apple, Amazon, Alphabet, Meta, Microsoft, Nvidia and Tesla) which carried the market in 2023. While I will use the "Magnificent Seven" moniker attached by these...
FIRE v London
April 2025 – balmy weather, barmy markets
Better late than never, I’m doing a quick update on April. More for the record than because anything...
24th May 2025
Better late than never, I’m doing a quick update on April. More for the record than because anything particularly notable happened in the portfolio, ignoring the mid month gyrations. It was a lovely month, April. I did a bit of travelling, but the UK had generally lovely spring...
FIRE v London
Jan ’26
January media seemed dominated by Greenland and Davos. As part of my efforts to avoid amplifying...
8th Feb 2026
January media seemed dominated by Greenland and Davos. As part of my efforts to avoid amplifying unstable narcissistic media-whore leaders, I haven’t got much to comment about. London has been pretty wet and miserable, as is January’s reputation. Meanwhile, markets were up quite...
Commoncog
Letter to a Young Person Worrying About AI
It is a common misperception that you must be able to predict the future to do well. But it’s...
20th Oct 2025
It is a common misperception that you must be able to predict the future to do well. But it’s possible to act without prediction, even in the face of AI. This is how.
Commoncog
The Creation of a Skilled Tycoon
What it looks like when an Asian tycoon gets good at the game of business.
8th Dec 2025
What it looks like when an Asian tycoon gets good at the game of business.
Commoncog
How to Use Power
How do you gain power, use power, and identify those who have power, so that you may protect...
2nd Dec 2024
How do you gain power, use power, and identify those who have power, so that you may protect yourself against them? Part two of three in a series on power in business.
Farnam Street
Why Write
Why write an essay when you can type a few words and have AI generate one for you? Why write an...
9th Mar 2023
Why write an essay when you can type a few words and have AI generate one for you? Why write an email when AI can auto-respond for you with all the typical pleasantries and talking-points? While AI doing these things for you is likely to happen, it’s not necessarily a good thing....
The Diff
The One-Big-Side-Bet Model of Wealth Creation
Plus! Diff Jobs; Building Japan's Financial Ecosystem; The New Balance of Trade; Where Return on...
2nd Dec 2024
Plus! Diff Jobs; Building Japan's Financial Ecosystem; The New Balance of Trade; Where Return on Investment Goes; Broken ETFs; Swipe Fees and Accounting
Seeking Wisdom
Focus on the process, not the outcome
Woorkeri Raman, a former Indian cricketer and former coach of the India women’s national cricket...
12th Aug 2024
Woorkeri Raman, a former Indian cricketer and former coach of the India women’s national cricket team, has two non-negotiables. As an offspinner, you must never get cut, and you must never get driven through the covers. Even when Ravichandran Ashwin takes five wickets, Raman will...
FIRE v London
Mar ’26: Iran clobbers markets
In March the rain stopped. We started March with North London already having seen 2x its usual...
12th Apr 2026
In March the rain stopped. We started March with North London already having seen 2x its usual rainfall for this point in the year. And thankfully in the middle of March, it stopped. As I write this I have actually needed to start watering the garden, something that felt a very...
Commoncog
1st Sept 2026: An Increase in Membership Prices
Commoncog is increasing membership prices on 1st September 2026. If you’d like to lock in the old...
11th Aug 2026
Commoncog is increasing membership prices on 1st September 2026. If you’d like to lock in the old prices, you should probably sign up before then.
Mazdak
Understanding the Stock Market Cycle
The stock market cycle is a crucial concept for investors aiming to navigate the financial markets...
7th Jun 2024
The stock market cycle is a crucial concept for investors aiming to navigate the financial markets effectively. It represents the period from a market low to a peak and back again. Understanding the dynamics behind these cycles can help investors maintain their strategies during...
Bits about Money
The Long Shadow of Checks
A lot of more modern financial infrastructure follows the paths blazed by checks, at least in the...
13th Dec 2023
A lot of more modern financial infrastructure follows the paths blazed by checks, at least in the U.S.
Musings on Markets
An Ode to Restraint: Lessons from the Tim Cook Legacy
Through time, we have glorified conquerors and empire builders in politics, civic life and business,...
6th May 2026
Through time, we have glorified conquerors and empire builders in politics, civic life and business, from Alexander the Great and Genghis Khan to the tech titans of today. That is no surprise, since these individuals have oversized personas and often change the course of history,...
Bits about Money
Notes on a non-profit indicted for bank fraud
Well-regarded non-profit runs domestic intelligence agency; distributes intelligence product;...
1st May 2026
Well-regarded non-profit runs domestic intelligence agency; distributes intelligence product; achieves adoption in financial infrastructure; recruits agents and allies; intervenes against U.S. political fundraising.
FIRE v London
Nov ’25: Coastal Folly loan repaid
Trump dominated the headlines again. This time partly due to some very biased editing by the BBC of...
14th Dec 2025
Trump dominated the headlines again. This time partly due to some very biased editing by the BBC of a Panorama show about Trump before the US election. There was also the omnipresent UK Budget. Which has had more than enough coverage. I did a ‘damage assessment‘ at the time and...
Musings on Markets
AI Scenarios: From Doomsday Destruction to Do-Nothing Bots!
When Chat GPT made its debut on November 30, 2022, it unleashed the hype of AI, and in the three...
4th Mar 2026
When Chat GPT made its debut on November 30, 2022, it unleashed the hype of AI, and in the three years since, AI has taken on an outsized role not just in markets, but also in our lives. For much of the time, the AI story has been told by its advocates and its salespeople, and...
balajis.com
The Mirrortable
Mirrortables are to cap tables what stablecoins are to fiat currencies. They streamline and...
26th Dec 2021
Mirrortables are to cap tables what stablecoins are to fiat currencies. They streamline and internationalize the logistical mess of angel investing.
Citation Needed
Trump says he has “no idea” who he just pardoned
President Trump reacts to condemnations of his recent pardon of Binance founder Changpeng Zhao by...
3rd Nov 2025
President Trump reacts to condemnations of his recent pardon of Binance founder Changpeng Zhao by claiming he doesn’t know who he is.
Commoncog
Operational Excellence is the Pursuit of ‘Knowledge’
It turns out that operational excellence results from the pursuit of a certain form of knowledge....
16th Mar 2023
It turns out that operational excellence results from the pursuit of a certain form of knowledge. This is Part 3 of the Becoming Data Driven series, and the result of a deep dive into the field of statistical process control.
balajis.com
The Network School Fellowship
Anyone from anywhere can apply for $100k in funding at ns.com.
18th Apr 2025
Anyone from anywhere can apply for $100k in funding at ns.com.
FIRE v London
April ’24: Juggling cash as new UK tax year begins
The temperature in the Middle East got even hotter in April, with Israel and Iran trading attacks on...
11th May 2024
The temperature in the Middle East got even hotter in April, with Israel and Iran trading attacks on each other’s sovereign buildings/territory. Somehow World War III has never really seemed in danger of breaking out but it is a reminder that only change is constant. Over in New...
Bits about Money
The infrastructure behind ATMs
ATMs are connected to banks by networks which operate little-understood payment rails.
2nd Jan 2023
ATMs are connected to banks by networks which operate little-understood payment rails.
Molson Hart's Blog -...
When People Outperform Data
People who succeed via analysis of numbers and facts need to learn that understanding of people can...
23rd Nov 2024
People who succeed via analysis of numbers and facts need to learn that understanding of people can make that analysis unnecessary and can even outperform it.
Examples:
1. Amazon did not make money between its 1994 founding through 2002. There was no financial or business...
Bits about Money
Fiction and Finance
Recommendations of works of fiction of interest to financial practitioners or enthusiasts.
7th Oct 2024
Recommendations of works of fiction of interest to financial practitioners or enthusiasts.
Commoncog
Lee Walker and the Dell Growth Plateau
How Lee Walker overcame Dell's biggest growth plateau in 1986. A story about capital, imagination,...
16th Aug 2023
How Lee Walker overcame Dell's biggest growth plateau in 1986. A story about capital, imagination, and creative deal-making.
The Diff
The Surprising Distribution Effects of "Buy-Borrow-Die"
Plus! Full-Stack; Scarcity; Sum-of-the-Parts; Nice Problems to Have; Distribution
2nd Jan 2026
Plus! Full-Stack; Scarcity; Sum-of-the-Parts; Nice Problems to Have; Distribution
Citation Needed
Issue 54 – Cases continue
Crypto-related litigation is in full swing, as the Terra civil fraud trial has kicked off and two...
2nd Apr 2024
Crypto-related litigation is in full swing, as the Terra civil fraud trial has kicked off and two other cases against crypto companies have survived motions to dismiss.
Moneyness
Your finances are being snooped on. Here's how
We all have a pretty good idea that our finances are being snooped on, but most of us aren't quite...
12th Jul 2024
We all have a pretty good idea that our finances are being snooped on, but most of us aren't quite able to articulate how. We know that we're being snooped on by two groups, corporations and the government. This post will focus on how the government surveils our transactions,...
Commoncog
You Aren't Learning If You Don't Close the Loops
Every experimentation and iteration loop looks the same, but the vast majority of folk in business...
2nd Nov 2022
Every experimentation and iteration loop looks the same, but the vast majority of folk in business don't seem to have the discipline to execute till the end. Why this is, and why it's hard.
Musings on Markets
Data Update 1 for 2026: The Push and Pull of Data!
In my musings on valuation, I have long described myself as more of a number cruncher than a...
9th Jan 2026
In my musings on valuation, I have long described myself as more of a number cruncher than a storyteller, but it is because I love numbers for their own sake, rather than a fondness for abstract mathematics. It is that love for numbers that has led me at the beginning of each...
Mazdak
Working Out Will Change Your Life
Do you want to lose weight? Have more energy? Sleep better? Improve your mood? If so, then you need...
8th Aug 2023
Do you want to lose weight? Have more energy? Sleep better? Improve your mood? If so, then you need to start working out. Working out has a myriad of benefits that can improve your life in many ways. Here are just a few of the ways that working out can change your life:
The Diff
Routers, Apps, AGI
Plus! Diff Jobs; Peripheral Bets; Fragmentation and Industry Maturity; Deepfakes as Pull Quotes;...
20th Oct 2025
Plus! Diff Jobs; Peripheral Bets; Fragmentation and Industry Maturity; Deepfakes as Pull Quotes; Benchmarks; Platforms
Citation Needed
Issue 87 – SO ORDERED
Trump’s crypto empire attracts more foreign millions, the FHFA pushes crypto on mortgage lenders,...
1st Jul 2025
Trump’s crypto empire attracts more foreign millions, the FHFA pushes crypto on mortgage lenders, and Mamdani’s mayoral primary win makes billionaires sweat
balajis.com
Global Crypto Regulation: Who’s Hot and Who’s Not?
Global crypto regulation is confusing. So I surveyed the information available and created a...
25th May 2022
Global crypto regulation is confusing. So I surveyed the information available and created a heatmap.
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