FIRE v London
Oct ’24: Budgets & broad shoulders
I haven’t seen much of London in October. I’ve been away every weekend in October, partly in the UK...
2nd Nov 2024
I haven’t seen much of London in October. I’ve been away every weekend in October, partly in the UK and partly visiting friends overseas. And now we’re in November, the clocks have gone back, but temperatures haven’t plummeted yet. London feels busy – pubs still have crowds...
balajis.com
Crypto Twitter Found SBF's Fraud
The establishment did nothing until the internet revealed everything.
6th Nov 2023
The establishment did nothing until the internet revealed everything.
Seeking Wisdom
Stay the course
I spend a couple of weeks every February keeping up with my investments, timing it to coincide with...
5th Mar 2024
I spend a couple of weeks every February keeping up with my investments, timing it to coincide with the release of Buffett’s annual letter to shareholders. I found something interesting while performing this ritual this time. I came across Aswath Damodaran’s website, where he has...
Moneyness
Your finances are being snooped on. Here's how
We all have a pretty good idea that our finances are being snooped on, but most of us aren't quite...
12th Jul 2024
We all have a pretty good idea that our finances are being snooped on, but most of us aren't quite able to articulate how. We know that we're being snooped on by two groups, corporations and the government. This post will focus on how the government surveils our transactions,...
Mazdak
Understanding the Stock Market Cycle
The stock market cycle is a crucial concept for investors aiming to navigate the financial markets...
7th Jun 2024
The stock market cycle is a crucial concept for investors aiming to navigate the financial markets effectively. It represents the period from a market low to a peak and back again. Understanding the dynamics behind these cycles can help investors maintain their strategies during...
oftwominds-Charles...
The Power of Our Behavior
Why is any reduction in consumption posed in terms of unbearable sacrifice, when no sacrifices are...
23rd Jan 2025
Why is any reduction in consumption posed in terms of unbearable sacrifice, when no sacrifices are necessary to consequentially reduce consumption?
When we think of the word power, we associate it with external forces: energy, technology, the government, etc. But our own...
Molson Hart's Blog -...
Being an Amazon Seller in 2020; Year in Review
I’m the founder and CEO of Viahart, an educational toy company. We did about $7.4 million in sales...
3rd Jan 2021
I’m the founder and CEO of Viahart, an educational toy company. We did about $7.4 million in sales in 2020, mostly through e-commerce channels like Amazon and Walmart.com. This article is going to tell you what that was like and how things were different in 2020 than in 2019.
To...
FIRE v London
Sep ’24: Ominous politics, juicy economics
September was fairly action-packed. I enjoyed getting out on a friend’s boat around Poole and the...
13th Oct 2024
September was fairly action-packed. I enjoyed getting out on a friend’s boat around Poole and the Solent. I made it to the Labour party conference in Liverpool, which was fascinating albeit wet. I am apparently firmly in the tax-raising sights of the Government, but I wasn’t the...
Mazdak
Capital Gains Tax Hike: Sell Now or Hold On? A Canadian Investor's Guide
Canada's recent federal budget has sent ripples through the investment and real estate communities....
24th May 2024
Canada's recent federal budget has sent ripples through the investment and real estate communities. A key change: a looming increase in capital gains tax on sizeable transactions. This has many wondering – should I sell assets before June 25th, 2024, to avoid the taxman's bite?...
Molson Hart's Blog -...
America Underestimates the Difficulty of Bringing Manufacturing Back
On April 2nd, 2025, our president announced major new taxes on imports from foreign countries...
6th Apr 2025
On April 2nd, 2025, our president announced major new taxes on imports from foreign countries (“tariffs”), ranging from 10% to 49%. The stated goal is to bring manufacturing back to the United States and to “make America wealthy again”.
These tariffs will not work. In fact, they...
Bits about Money
Markets in power
How physics and infrastructure combine to generate (ba dum bum) the power market.
30th Sep 2022
How physics and infrastructure combine to generate (ba dum bum) the power market.
Musings on Markets
To Bitcoin or not to Bitcoin? A Corporate Cash Question!
In this post, I will bring together two disparate and very different topics that I have written...
18th Jul 2025
In this post, I will bring together two disparate and very different topics that I have written about in the past. The first is the role that cash holdings play in a business, an extension of the dividend policy question, with an examination of why businesses often should not pay...
Commoncog
Business Ecosystem Change Takes Time
The birth of Sony, and the possibility that private corporations and private individuals can change...
11th Jun 2024
The birth of Sony, and the possibility that private corporations and private individuals can change broader business ecosystems.
FIRE v London
Feb ’23: taking profits
February was cold, but mercifully dry. The days are becoming a welcome bit longer. London is filling...
14th Mar 2023
February was cold, but mercifully dry. The days are becoming a welcome bit longer. London is filling up again, post covid, though Mondays and Fridays remain subdued to put it mildly. Market movements in February In the markets, February started strongly, but then something...
balajis.com
Decentralizing Education with Synthesis
I'm co-leading a round in Synthesis, a startup scaling the custom school built for Elon Musk’s kids.
21st Apr 2022
I'm co-leading a round in Synthesis, a startup scaling the custom school built for Elon Musk’s kids.
balajis.com
Why did Stu Woo of the Wall Street Journal Follow Me to Singapore?
Thirty five million people change countries every year. I'm one of them, and so is Stu Woo.
28th Jul 2026
Thirty five million people change countries every year. I'm one of them, and so is Stu Woo.
Commoncog
Mental Strength in Judo; Mental Strength in Life
Results of a four month accelerated expertise experiment in Judo. Or: "I expected to learn about...
3rd May 2023
Results of a four month accelerated expertise experiment in Judo. Or: "I expected to learn about deliberate practice but instead learnt a ton about my mental shortcomings."
Calculated Risk
Question #3 for 2025: What will the unemployment rate be in December 2025?
Earlier I posted some questions on my blog for next year: Ten Economic Questions for 2025. Some of...
1st Jan 2025
Earlier I posted some questions on my blog for next year: Ten Economic Questions for 2025. Some of these questions concern real estate (inventory, house prices, housing starts, new home sales), and I posted thoughts on those in the newsletter (others like GDP and employment will...
balajis.com
Gil Duran Faked A Quote For the New Republic
Then they stealth edited the piece. They knew they'd committed libel.
1st May 2024
Then they stealth edited the piece. They knew they'd committed libel.
Musings on Markets
The Wisdom and Madness of Crowds: Market Prices as Political Predictors!
In this, the first full week in November 2024, the big news stories of this week are political, as...
7th Nov 2024
In this, the first full week in November 2024, the big news stories of this week are political, as the US presidential election reached its climactic moment on Tuesday, but I don't write about politics, not because I do not have political views, but because I reserve those views...
Citation Needed
Trump says he has “no idea” who he just pardoned
President Trump reacts to condemnations of his recent pardon of Binance founder Changpeng Zhao by...
3rd Nov 2025
President Trump reacts to condemnations of his recent pardon of Binance founder Changpeng Zhao by claiming he doesn’t know who he is.
Molson Hart's Blog -...
What happens if the US loses reserve currency status?
A reserve currency is the currency that people all over the world prefer to store their savings...
29th Apr 2024
A reserve currency is the currency that people all over the world prefer to store their savings in.
Today that currency is the US dollar.
From the Middle East, to Asia, to South America — Whether it's a family that needs to keep some money around just in case or a country, most...
Mazdak
OpenAI Launches GPT‑4.1: What You Need to Know About the New Family of AI Models
OpenAI has officially released the GPT‑4.1 family — and it’s more than just a minor upgrade.
14th Apr 2025
OpenAI has officially released the GPT‑4.1 family — and it’s more than just a minor upgrade.
balajis.com
AI is polytheistic, not monotheistic
And ten more thoughts on AI.
3rd Aug 2025
And ten more thoughts on AI.
Bits about Money
The business of check cashing
Check cashing, as a business, is a poorly understood "alternative" financial service.
30th Jan 2024
Check cashing, as a business, is a poorly understood "alternative" financial service.
FIRE v London
Sep 23: Antisocial markets
For some reason shoplifting is in the news. There’s evidently an epidemic of it. Not just in the UK,...
8th Oct 2023
For some reason shoplifting is in the news. There’s evidently an epidemic of it. Not just in the UK, but wider afield too – hence major brands pulling out of cities like San Francisco. From what I hear there is a general increase in antisocial behaviour, dating from the covid-19...
oftwominds-Charles...
The Joys and Tragedies of Naivete
Our naivete is being exploited so ruthlessly and with such abandon that the golden age of the Big...
5th Aug 2026
Our naivete is being exploited so ruthlessly and with such abandon that the golden age of the Big Con is consuming itself.
Naivete is interesting because it's so easily confused with confidence, native optimism, youthful enthusiasm, and a host of delusions, including...
Farnam Street
Chesterton’s Fence: A Lesson in Second Order Thinking
A core component of making great decisions is understanding the rationale behind previous decisions....
5th Sep 2022
A core component of making great decisions is understanding the rationale behind previous decisions. If we don’t understand how we got “here,” we run the risk of making things much worse. *** When we seek to intervene in any system created by someone, it’s not enough to view...
Musings on Markets
Trillion Dollar Market Caps: Fairy Tale Pricing or Business Marvels?
Stock markets have always rewarded winners with large capitalizations, and with each new threshold,...
3rd Dec 2025
Stock markets have always rewarded winners with large capitalizations, and with each new threshold, the questions begin anew of whether animal spirits or fundamentals are driving the numbers. A few weeks ago, Nvidia seemed unstoppable as its market capitalization crested $5...
balajis.com
California Is Not A Democracy
It's a one-party state. They hold elections, but the Party always wins.
10th Jun 2024
It's a one-party state. They hold elections, but the Party always wins.
The Rational Walk
A Quarter Century of Investing
Lessons learned from twenty-five years of enterprising investing
6th Jan 2025
Lessons learned from twenty-five years of enterprising investing
Bits about Money
Demystifying financial leverage
Leverage is actually reasonably easy to understand, both in the math and in the implications for...
11th Nov 2022
Leverage is actually reasonably easy to understand, both in the math and in the implications for financial firms.
Moneyness
Tornado Cash un-OFAC'ed
The next chapter in the Tornado Cash saga just dropped. Last week a court ruled last that Tornado...
5th Dec 2024
The next chapter in the Tornado Cash saga just dropped. Last week a court ruled last that Tornado Cash, a bot that can be used for obfuscating crypto, is safe from being sanctioned.
I first wrote about Tornado Cash in 2021, before its legal troubles began, warning of the risks...
Commoncog
Business Reality Without Frameworks
A paradox: why it’s important to think about business without abstractions, even as we from what’s...
21st Oct 2024
A paradox: why it’s important to think about business without abstractions, even as we from what’s come before.
Citation Needed
Meet Trump’s memecoin dinner guests
Trump's crypto-for-access dinner triggers broad ethics alarms, and 73% non-US attendance raises...
7th May 2025
Trump's crypto-for-access dinner triggers broad ethics alarms, and 73% non-US attendance raises fresh concerns over foreign influence
Commoncog
The Two Types of Data Analysis
Broadly speaking, there are two approaches to data analysis in business. The two approaches have...
3rd Nov 2023
Broadly speaking, there are two approaches to data analysis in business. The two approaches have different worldviews, and express different tradeoffs. Here's why that matters.
FIRE v London
May ’23: Magic megatech
May has been election month. In the UK, some (but not all – and not London) local councils had...
4th Jun 2023
May has been election month. In the UK, some (but not all – and not London) local councils had elections. The Tories took a drubbing, as expected. And overseas the notable election seemed to be Turkey, where autocratic Erdogan won (however fairly) another five year term – taking...
Musings on Markets
For the fun of it: An Open House for my Spring 2025 Classes
I am a teacher at heart, and every year, for more than two decades, I have invited people to join me...
11th Dec 2024
I am a teacher at heart, and every year, for more than two decades, I have invited people to join me in the classes that I teach at the Stern School of Business at New York University. Since I teach these classes only in the spring, and the first sessions for each of the classes...
FIRE v London
Jan ’23: Mr Market defuses my tax bombshell
January is always a miserable month to be in London. Thankfully I managed to get away a bit during...
1st Feb 2023
January is always a miserable month to be in London. Thankfully I managed to get away a bit during the month (not to Davos, no), and enjoy myself in London despite the wintry weather. What you’re paying for in Mayfair these days Market movements in January The markets on the...
Commoncog
Letter to a Young Person Worrying About AI
It is a common misperception that you must be able to predict the future to do well. But it’s...
20th Oct 2025
It is a common misperception that you must be able to predict the future to do well. But it’s possible to act without prediction, even in the face of AI. This is how.
Citation Needed
Issue 76 – Tripartisan legislation
Crypto exchanges face legal troubles, and Trump’s crypto empire grows as regulations are slashed and...
6th Feb 2025
Crypto exchanges face legal troubles, and Trump’s crypto empire grows as regulations are slashed and enforcement is sidelined.
The Rational Walk
Interesting Reading – November 7, 2016
In this series, we suggest worthwhile reading material on a variety of topics, not all of which are...
19th Jun 2026
In this series, we suggest worthwhile reading material on a variety of topics, not all of which are directly related to investing.
Molson Hart's Blog -...
Heureka
A “heureka” is a surprisingly powerful yet simple solution to a complex optimization problem, which...
20th Sep 2025
A “heureka” is a surprisingly powerful yet simple solution to a complex optimization problem, which is theoretically inferior to more complicated solutions, but is, in practice, optimal.
Example:
“I’m a 22 year old Phi Beta Kappa alumnus of University of Iowa and I have this idea...
Mazdak
Move Your Business Abroad: A Step-by-Step Guide for Entrepreneurs
Expanding your business abroad can be a great way to reach new markets, increase revenue, and...
6th Nov 2023
Expanding your business abroad can be a great way to reach new markets, increase revenue, and diversify your portfolio. However, it's important to do your research and take the necessary steps to ensure a successful transition. Here are some practical tips for entrepreneurs...
Bits about Money
Notes on a non-profit indicted for bank fraud
Well-regarded non-profit runs domestic intelligence agency; distributes intelligence product;...
1st May 2026
Well-regarded non-profit runs domestic intelligence agency; distributes intelligence product; achieves adoption in financial infrastructure; recruits agents and allies; intervenes against U.S. political fundraising.
Musings on Markets
The Situational Awareness Blow-up: The Collateral Damage from Investing Conviction!
Earlier this year, I was asked what I thought about Leopold Aschenbrenner and I admitted that I knew...
11th Aug 2026
Earlier this year, I was asked what I thought about Leopold Aschenbrenner and I admitted that I knew little about him other than what I had read about him, more in social media, than in the press - that he was a 25-year-old wunderkind who had started at OpenAI but had left to...
Commoncog
Is This a Moat: Mailchimp and PayPal’s Algorithmic Advantage
Two case studies of real world competitive advantage, followed by a question: was this a moat or...
12th Dec 2022
Two case studies of real world competitive advantage, followed by a question: was this a moat or not?
Bits about Money
A window into modern loan origination
A four party consortium can underwrite, fund, and execute a consumer loan in 15 minutes. Here's how.
10th Oct 2025
A four party consortium can underwrite, fund, and execute a consumer loan in 15 minutes. Here's how.
FIRE v London
Apr ’23: Wind and windfalls
April saw the season of long weekends begin here in the UK. Easter saw me inspired by the Ermine to...
6th May 2023
April saw the season of long weekends begin here in the UK. Easter saw me inspired by the Ermine to check out Dorset’s Chesil beach. We struck lucky with the weather and had a fine, distinctly non-London, time, over a very blustery Easter weekend. My walking shoes seem to have...
The Diff
Imperfectly Enforced Rules Create Bad Local Maxima
Plus! Ads; Marketing; Pricing; Take Rates; SPVs
2 weeks ago
Plus! Ads; Marketing; Pricing; Take Rates; SPVs
Commoncog
What’s an Operational Definition Anyway?
Two principles on collecting data, from the field of Statistical Process Control. As with most...
3rd Oct 2023
Two principles on collecting data, from the field of Statistical Process Control. As with most principles in SPC, this is both simpler and more important than you might think.
Molson Hart's Blog -...
Why We Shouldn’t “Buy the Dip”
“Buying the dip” is buy stocks whenever there is a short-term decline in stock prices, under the...
29th May 2023
“Buying the dip” is buy stocks whenever there is a short-term decline in stock prices, under the assumption that asset prices will quickly revert, enabling you to make money.
This article explains why a government-driven culture of “buying the dip” can be damaging to you and...
Bits about Money
Open Banking and payments competition
Why the banks really hate fintechs that allow businesses to learn your account number easily.
13th Aug 2025
Why the banks really hate fintechs that allow businesses to learn your account number easily.
Commoncog
You Aren't Learning If You Don't Close the Loops
Every experimentation and iteration loop looks the same, but the vast majority of folk in business...
2nd Nov 2022
Every experimentation and iteration loop looks the same, but the vast majority of folk in business don't seem to have the discipline to execute till the end. Why this is, and why it's hard.
oftwominds-Charles...
Risk and AI: It's Tricky
The possibility that AI will end up unleashing waves of 'Anti-Progress'--malicious uses,...
1st Jul 2026
The possibility that AI will end up unleashing waves of 'Anti-Progress'--malicious uses, untrustworthy output and uncontrollable floods of slop--also doesn't occur to those confined in the current belief construct.
A funny thing happens on the way to understanding risk: we...
Calculated Risk
May 2nd COVID Update: COVID Deaths Continue to Decline
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios.
For deaths, I'm...
2nd May 2025
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios.
For deaths, I'm currently using 4 weeks ago for "now", since the most recent three weeks will be revised significantly.
Note: "Effective May 1, 2024, hospitals are no longer required to report...
Mazdak
AI Agents vs. SaaS: Is This the Beginning of a Structural Reset or Another Tech Overreaction?
Public software companies just had one of their worst weeks in years—and the market reaction was...
9th Feb 2026
Public software companies just had one of their worst weeks in years—and the market reaction was swift, brutal, and emotional.
FIRE v London
August ’25: Warm memories
While the global soap opera of the Gaza crisis, Trump/Putin PR, Ukraine misery etc continued, I have...
11th Sep 2025
While the global soap opera of the Gaza crisis, Trump/Putin PR, Ukraine misery etc continued, I have created some warm memories in August. I spent a bit of time in the New Forest, at both ends, and the middle. Which included a trip to Mudeford, site of the UK’s most expensive...
Bits about Money
Why the CrowdStrike bug hit banks hard
Regulation-induced monocultures meet unfortunate but explicable engineering decisions.
31st Jul 2024
Regulation-induced monocultures meet unfortunate but explicable engineering decisions.
Musings on Markets
The Seven Samurai: How Big Tech Rescued the Market in 2023!
I was planning to finish my last two data updates for 2024, but decided to take a break and look at...
9th Feb 2024
I was planning to finish my last two data updates for 2024, but decided to take a break and look at the seven stocks (Apple, Amazon, Alphabet, Meta, Microsoft, Nvidia and Tesla) which carried the market in 2023. While I will use the "Magnificent Seven" moniker attached by these...
balajis.com
The Fiat Crisis
This is not a financial crisis. It’s a fiat crisis.
2nd May 2023
This is not a financial crisis. It’s a fiat crisis.
Commoncog
There Is No Truth in Business, Only Knowledge
'Knowledge' here is defined as 'theories or models that help you predict better'. How an idea from...
4th Apr 2023
'Knowledge' here is defined as 'theories or models that help you predict better'. How an idea from W. Edwards Deming may well be a working philosophy of business.
FIRE v London
July ’24: New UK government
July has been quite a busy month. I’ve been getting about a bit. Some South Coast action, some...
5th Aug 2024
July has been quite a busy month. I’ve been getting about a bit. Some South Coast action, some Mediterranean fun, a trip up to Oxford, a visit to one of England’s great Cathedrals, and more. And July saw some fine times in London. Both outdoors and inside. And of course we had...
Musings on Markets
An Ode to Restraint: Lessons from the Tim Cook Legacy
Through time, we have glorified conquerors and empire builders in politics, civic life and business,...
6th May 2026
Through time, we have glorified conquerors and empire builders in politics, civic life and business, from Alexander the Great and Genghis Khan to the tech titans of today. That is no surprise, since these individuals have oversized personas and often change the course of history,...
Citation Needed
Issue 71 – (Crypto) banks are not your friends
Celsius’ Alex Mashinsky pleads guilty to fraud, some Tornado Cash sanctions are overturned, and tech...
5th Dec 2024
Celsius’ Alex Mashinsky pleads guilty to fraud, some Tornado Cash sanctions are overturned, and tech billionaires complain about “debanking”.
Mazdak
OpenAI is not becoming a for-profit company after all.
In a significant reversal, OpenAI announced on May 5, 2025, that it will remain under the control of...
5th May 2025
In a significant reversal, OpenAI announced on May 5, 2025, that it will remain under the control of its nonprofit entity, abandoning earlier plans to restructure as a for-profit company.
Molson Hart's Blog -...
THE SLOW, EXCRUCIATING, DISASTEROUS DUMBING DOWN OF AMERICA
Austin is a more pleasant place to live than Dallas because people are smarter on average.
This does...
24th Sep 2023
Austin is a more pleasant place to live than Dallas because people are smarter on average.
This does not mean there are not smart people in Dallas. There are. What it does mean is the typical Austinite is just a little sharper.
This makes for more pleasant conversations. It’s...
Citation Needed
Caroline Ellison: A woman with agency or a helpless pawn?
Why did the former Alameda Research CEO receive only two years imprisonment for her role in the FTX...
2nd Oct 2024
Why did the former Alameda Research CEO receive only two years imprisonment for her role in the FTX collapse?
Mazdak
Canada's Housing Crisis: Is There a Way Out?
Canada's housing market has become a national concern. Soaring prices have pushed homeownership out...
2nd Apr 2024
Canada's housing market has become a national concern. Soaring prices have pushed homeownership out of reach for many, and even renters struggle to find affordable options. The pandemic exacerbated this pre-existing crisis, highlighting the urgent need for solutions. This article...
Musings on Markets
The Imitation Game: Defending against AI's Dark Side!
A few weeks ago, I started receiving a stream of message about an Instagram post that I was...
5th Aug 2025
A few weeks ago, I started receiving a stream of message about an Instagram post that I was allegedly starring in, where after offering my views on Palantir's valuation, I was soliciting investors to invest with me (or with an investment entity that had ties to me). I was not...
Commoncog
Operational Excellence is the Pursuit of ‘Knowledge’
It turns out that operational excellence results from the pursuit of a certain form of knowledge....
16th Mar 2023
It turns out that operational excellence results from the pursuit of a certain form of knowledge. This is Part 3 of the Becoming Data Driven series, and the result of a deep dive into the field of statistical process control.
Molson Hart's Blog -...
When People Outperform Data
People who succeed via analysis of numbers and facts need to learn that understanding of people can...
23rd Nov 2024
People who succeed via analysis of numbers and facts need to learn that understanding of people can make that analysis unnecessary and can even outperform it.
Examples:
1. Amazon did not make money between its 1994 founding through 2002. There was no financial or business...
Moneyness
Trump-proofing Canada means ditching MasterCard and Visa
We're all busy doing our best to boycott U.S. products. I can't buy Special K cereal anymore,...
14th Mar 2025
We're all busy doing our best to boycott U.S. products. I can't buy Special K cereal anymore, because it's made in the U.S. by Kellogg's. But I'm still buying Shreddies, which is made in Niagara Falls, Ontario. Even that's a grey area, since Shreddies is owned by Post, a big...
Molson Hart's Blog -...
It’s Time to Build… Assets?
One of the main reasons for the decline in goods and services in the United States, and to a lesser...
28th Mar 2026
One of the main reasons for the decline in goods and services in the United States, and to a lesser extent, the world, is the financialization of our economies by excessive money printing.
Let's break that down into simpler language.
The quality of the things and services you buy...
Molson Hart's Blog -...
Older Articles I’ve Written
In reverse chronological order:
Starting a Physical Product Company? You’re Gonna Need a Lawyer...
13th Dec 2020
In reverse chronological order:
Starting a Physical Product Company? You’re Gonna Need a Lawyer (October 18, 2020)
The Right to a Nonconsensus Opinion (June 9, 2020)
Never Invest in Anything Made of Metal (May 2, 2020)
Simple 3 Step Strategy to Stop the Coronavirus in the...
Citation Needed
Citation Needed has a new home
Citation Needed is no longer hosted on Substack. Welcome to my antifascist bar.
5th Jan 2024
Citation Needed is no longer hosted on Substack. Welcome to my antifascist bar.
Musings on Markets
Data Update 4 for 2026: The Global Perspective!
If you have read my first three data updates in 2026, I won’t blame you if you skip this one,...
2nd Feb 2026
If you have read my first three data updates in 2026, I won’t blame you if you skip this one, because you found them long and boring. I won't take issue with you either if you viewed them as too US-focused, because I did spend my second data update, looking at US equities, and my...
The Rational Walk
Minimal Impact to Insurers from Icelandic Volcano Eruption
At least for now, most air travel restrictions caused by the eruption of the Eyjafjallajökull...
11th Aug 2026
At least for now, most air travel restrictions caused by the eruption of the Eyjafjallajökull volcano have been lifted throughout Europe.
FIRE v London
Feb ’24: Envyidia
I’ve had quite a lot of culture to enjoy in February. Aside from some travel for the Six Nations...
3rd Mar 2024
I’ve had quite a lot of culture to enjoy in February. Aside from some travel for the Six Nations rugby, I’ve been to two shows – one in London’s Royal Opera House and one on the south coast. Both events were either full or practically full. Covid feels fully behind us now. But...
FIRE v London
Dec ’23 – 2023 in review
It’s the start of a calendar year. Let’s take a look at what 2023 did to me financially. I’m...
2nd Jan 2024
It’s the start of a calendar year. Let’s take a look at what 2023 did to me financially. I’m following the same structure I’ve used for the last few years (2022, 2021, and 2020). Overall, 2023 was a good year on almost all measures – thanks in particular to Q4 which saw the US...
Calculated Risk
Real Estate Newsletter Articles this Week: New Home Sales Decrease to 657,000 Annual Rate in January
At the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter this week:
Click on graph for larger image.
New Home...
1st Mar 2025
At the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter this week:
Click on graph for larger image.
New Home Sales Decrease to 657,000 Annual Rate in January
Case-Shiller: National House Price Index Up 3.9% year-over-year in December
Inflation Adjusted House Prices 1.0% Below 2022...
Commoncog
1st Sept 2026: An Increase in Membership Prices
Commoncog is increasing membership prices on 1st September 2026. If you’d like to lock in the old...
11th Aug 2026
Commoncog is increasing membership prices on 1st September 2026. If you’d like to lock in the old prices, you should probably sign up before then.
Citation Needed
Issue 45 – I'm the director now
Rising bitcoin prices bring echoes of the crypto mania from years past, and an ambitious hacker...
5th Dec 2023
Rising bitcoin prices bring echoes of the crypto mania from years past, and an ambitious hacker decides to manifest a new job for themselves.
Mazdak
Google’s New AI Summaries in Discover: The Next Blow to Publishers?
If you work in media or publishing, brace yourself — another platform update from Google is quietly...
15th Jul 2025
If you work in media or publishing, brace yourself — another platform update from Google is quietly shifting the ground beneath us.
Musings on Markets
Data Update 9 for 2025: Dividends and Buybacks - Inertia and Me-tooism!
In my ninth (and last) data post for 2025, I look at cash returned by businesses across the world,...
5th Mar 2025
In my ninth (and last) data post for 2025, I look at cash returned by businesses across the world, looking at both the magnitude and the form of that return. I start with a framework for thinking about how much cash a business can return to its owners, and then argue that, in the...
FIRE v London
Oct ’25: Trim, trim & trim
October in the markets was one of those slightly giddy months. My portfolio crossed through a big...
9th Nov 2025
October in the markets was one of those slightly giddy months. My portfolio crossed through a big number threshold, and kept going up. The market stats don’t quite tell the whole story. On a constant currency basis, markets rose 2.8%. Non-UK currencies (AUD, EUR, USD) rose...
Commoncog
Under The Hood
How do you shape employee culture? How do you win employee commitment? Under The Hood has a coherent...
12th Nov 2024
How do you shape employee culture? How do you win employee commitment? Under The Hood has a coherent model for building this skill.
Commoncog
How to Improve at Sensemaking AI?
What we can learn from the disorienting changes hitting the software industry, and how we can use...
3rd May 2026
What we can learn from the disorienting changes hitting the software industry, and how we can use that to improve at sensemaking this uncertain new technology.
oftwominds-Charles...
The Irresistible Temptations of Centralized Power
The only "reform" that changes our lives in a fundamentally positive way is radical decentralization...
2 weeks ago
The only "reform" that changes our lives in a fundamentally positive way is radical decentralization via distributing centralized power.
Presidents like to deal with the CEOs of corporate monopolies for self-evident reasons: Rather than engage in the tedious, contentious...
Commoncog
Setting the Business Expertise Series Free
Removing the paywall on The Business Expertise Series, which covers the work of Lia DiBello and her...
6th Jun 2023
Removing the paywall on The Business Expertise Series, which covers the work of Lia DiBello and her collaborators.
Molson Hart's Blog -...
The Trial: How I lost $1 million dollars and 7 years in a lawsuit over Brain Flakes
I thought I was good.
Until I met Sol.
Solomon Rosengarten is a lawyer from Brooklyn. He has an AOL...
25th Nov 2025
I thought I was good.
Until I met Sol.
Solomon Rosengarten is a lawyer from Brooklyn. He has an AOL email address. He is not great with the mute button on his phone. He sometimes comes across as incompetent.
But, he is the best damned lawyer I have ever known.
Sol is a killer....
Mazdak
OpenAI Launches GPT-5
On August 7, 2025, OpenAI officially released GPT-5, its latest flagship model, to the world.
7th Aug 2025
On August 7, 2025, OpenAI officially released GPT-5, its latest flagship model, to the world.
Mazdak
The Ultimate Small Business Hiring Guide
How to Find the Right Fit for Your Team
9th Oct 2024
How to Find the Right Fit for Your Team
Commoncog
How to Become an Asian Tycoon
Every Asian tycoon becomes a tycoon in the exact same way. Learning to see this core pattern is half...
1st Apr 2025
Every Asian tycoon becomes a tycoon in the exact same way. Learning to see this core pattern is half the battle.
Mazdak
2024 Tax Strategies for Optimization and Savings
The new year dawns, not just with fresh resolutions, but also the opportunity to reassess and...
3rd Jan 2024
The new year dawns, not just with fresh resolutions, but also the opportunity to reassess and optimize your tax strategy. While taxes may not be the most exhilarating topic, savvy planning can significantly reduce your liability and boost your financial well-being. So, grab your...
Mazdak
What Expenses Can You Write Off Against Your Business Income?
Taxes are an inevitable part of running a business, but that doesn't mean you have to pay more than...
6th Feb 2024
Taxes are an inevitable part of running a business, but that doesn't mean you have to pay more than your fair share. Fortunately, the law allows you to deduct certain expenses from your business income, lowering your taxable amount and saving you money. But navigating the world...
Mazdak
Apple’s 2025 Product Unveiling: What’s New and What Actually Matters
Apple’s latest keynote delivered a sweeping set of updates across AirPods, iPhones, and the Apple...
9th Sep 2025
Apple’s latest keynote delivered a sweeping set of updates across AirPods, iPhones, and the Apple Watch lineup.
FIRE v London
July ’23: Markets up, Coutts down
It’s been a dismally wet July here in London. About 50% more rainfall than normal (which, before ye...
2nd Aug 2023
It’s been a dismally wet July here in London. About 50% more rainfall than normal (which, before ye scoff, isn’t that much – London is a fairly dry city – drier than Rome and much drier than Sydney). It has been long trousers weather, for the first time in several years. But at...
Bits about Money
The business of wallets
How digital wallets work, and how payment costs drive a lot of product decisions inside and around...
30th Apr 2024
How digital wallets work, and how payment costs drive a lot of product decisions inside and around them.
The Rational Walk
What I’ve Been Reading
Thoughts on the books I read in the second quarter of 2025
11th Jul 2025
Thoughts on the books I read in the second quarter of 2025
Molson Hart's Blog -...
The Fiacracy; A Mental Model for Modern Government
This article will explain the following:
1. What is a Fiacracy
2. How do Fiacracies NOT work
3. How...
10th Aug 2024
This article will explain the following:
1. What is a Fiacracy
2. How do Fiacracies NOT work
3. How Fiacracies work
4. Are Fiacracies sustainable
5. Why Fiacracies matter
1. What is a fiacracy?
It’s government by fiat (money). The driving mechanism by which it works is not...
The Rational Walk
Greg Abel’s Unique Challenge
Greg Abel takes over as Chief Executive Officer of Berkshire Hathaway on January 1, 2026, a job that...
31st Dec 2025
Greg Abel takes over as Chief Executive Officer of Berkshire Hathaway on January 1, 2026, a job that will involve at least three major challenges.
Moneyness
Setelinleikkaus: When Finns snipped their cash in half to curb inflation
On the last day of 1945, with World War II finally behind it, Finland's government announced a new...
8th Nov 2024
On the last day of 1945, with World War II finally behind it, Finland's government announced a new and very strange policy.
All Finns were required to take out a pair of scissors and snip their banknotes in half. This was known in Finland as setelinleikkaus, or banknote cutting....
FIRE v London
July ’26: An IPO, and France
It feels as if the World Cup was ages ago, already. Yet only a few weeks ago, I was gripped. And for...
9th Aug 2026
It feels as if the World Cup was ages ago, already. Yet only a few weeks ago, I was gripped. And for once I thought England had a world-class side…. but hey ho, football hasn’t come home for another four years. I had a road trip through France in July, which was lovely. I am…...
Citation Needed
Issue 53 – Choose rich
Euphoria has risen along with crypto prices, but nothing has changed from the last bubble.
13th Mar 2024
Euphoria has risen along with crypto prices, but nothing has changed from the last bubble.
FIRE v London
Mar ’24: A towering influence
I’ve enjoyed March. I managed to enjoy a few days’ skiing, despite less snow than any of us would...
1st Apr 2024
I’ve enjoyed March. I managed to enjoy a few days’ skiing, despite less snow than any of us would like, in the Austrian alps. Back at home, the sun has been getting stronger, and the evenings have been getting lighter – and now with Summer Time we will enjoy lovely late evenings...
FIRE v London
June 2025: Show times
I really want to stop mentioning Trump. Even when he sends troops into LA, one of my favourite...
11th Jul 2025
I really want to stop mentioning Trump. Even when he sends troops into LA, one of my favourite cities. But when he launches 30kt bombs on Iran, it is very hard to avoid talking about him. In the context of what Trump’s been up to, the welfare reform screw-ups by the Labour...
The Diff
In Credit Underwriting, Better is Worse
Plus! IRR; Structure; Financial Epiphytes; Shale; Weakening the Cartel
2nd Jan 2025
Plus! IRR; Structure; Financial Epiphytes; Shale; Weakening the Cartel
Musings on Markets
AI Scenarios: From Doomsday Destruction to Do-Nothing Bots!
When Chat GPT made its debut on November 30, 2022, it unleashed the hype of AI, and in the three...
4th Mar 2026
When Chat GPT made its debut on November 30, 2022, it unleashed the hype of AI, and in the three years since, AI has taken on an outsized role not just in markets, but also in our lives. For much of the time, the AI story has been told by its advocates and its salespeople, and...
Moneyness
Renovatio monetae
This silver pfennig from the Archbishopric of Magdeburg (1152-1192) was subject to a policy of...
8th May 2024
This silver pfennig from the Archbishopric of Magdeburg (1152-1192) was subject to a policy of renovatio monetae. Twice a year whoever held it had to bring it in to be changed for new coins at a rate of four old coins to three new coins. That suggests an annualized tax rate on...
Molson Hart's Blog -...
15 mental Abilities & Traits Which Make You Successful But Are Not on an IQ Test
1. Empathy
2. Dexterity
3. Persuasion
4. Musicality
5. Confidence
6. Ambition
7. Grit
8....
2nd Jun 2024
1. Empathy
2. Dexterity
3. Persuasion
4. Musicality
5. Confidence
6. Ambition
7. Grit
8. Creativity
9. Flexibility
10. Energy
11. Individualism
12. Willpower
13. Stoicisim
14. Objectivity
15. Allure
Seeking Wisdom
Few thoughts on life, psychology, and mindset
I’ve been writing my thoughts on life, psychology, and mindset for some time. I’ve considered...
2nd Sep 2023
I’ve been writing my thoughts on life, psychology, and mindset for some time. I’ve considered transferring some of these writings from Notion into this post. In physics, three laws can explain 99% of observations. However, in life, psychology, and mindset, 99 laws can barely...
oftwominds-Charles...
AI Data Centers Are Not the Railroads of Today
The AI boom shares all the risk profiles of previous speculative manias but lacks society-wide...
1st Jun 2026
The AI boom shares all the risk profiles of previous speculative manias but lacks society-wide benefits while generating fast-metastasizing negative consequences and costs.
The idea that the current bubble in AI data centers is an echo of the railroad-construction bubble of...
Bits about Money
Requiem for a bank loan
A brief retrospective on an attractive product First Republic used to offer, and a wider discourse...
16th Jun 2023
A brief retrospective on an attractive product First Republic used to offer, and a wider discourse on the banking crisis.
FIRE v London
10 year review
Wahoop! I have made it through ten years. In fact, I’ve had a trackable portfolio for over 20 years....
20th Jan 2023
Wahoop! I have made it through ten years. In fact, I’ve had a trackable portfolio for over 20 years. But 10 years ago I started tracking my portfolio in a consistent, monthly way – unitising its performance so I could measure its return. It wasn’t until 2015 that I started this...
Citation Needed
Issue 87 – SO ORDERED
Trump’s crypto empire attracts more foreign millions, the FHFA pushes crypto on mortgage lenders,...
1st Jul 2025
Trump’s crypto empire attracts more foreign millions, the FHFA pushes crypto on mortgage lenders, and Mamdani’s mayoral primary win makes billionaires sweat
Commoncog
How to Run Smart Experiments When You Just Don’t Know
How all good entrepreneurs run experiments at the earliest stages of a business, and how you can use...
20th Aug 2025
How all good entrepreneurs run experiments at the earliest stages of a business, and how you can use this approach for your own career.
FIRE v London
Feb ’26: Before Iran
So, for the avoidance of doubt, the end of the month is the last trading day of the month. Which for...
16th Mar 2026
So, for the avoidance of doubt, the end of the month is the last trading day of the month. Which for February, meant Friday February 27th. The fact that the Israelis and the Americans invaded Iran on February 28th is going to impact March, not February. Which is just as well...
Commoncog
The Creation of a Skilled Tycoon
What it looks like when an Asian tycoon gets good at the game of business.
8th Dec 2025
What it looks like when an Asian tycoon gets good at the game of business.
Bits about Money
Deposit insurance maximization as a service
In the wake of the recent banking crisis, there is some attention to deposit insurance limits. Some...
5th Apr 2023
In the wake of the recent banking crisis, there is some attention to deposit insurance limits. Some products increase them; here is how.
Citation Needed
Sam Bankman-Fried: guilty on all charges
Jurors spent less than five hours deliberating before returning the verdict.
3rd Nov 2023
Jurors spent less than five hours deliberating before returning the verdict.
The Diff
The Market for Contrarian Talent Doesn't Clear
Plus! Bootstrapping a Consumer-Facing Negawatt Market; Real Estate; Aggregators; Training Data;...
1st May 2026
Plus! Bootstrapping a Consumer-Facing Negawatt Market; Real Estate; Aggregators; Training Data; Supply Chains
Farnam Street
The Best Summary of Atlas Shrugged
A brief, no-fluff, summary of Atlas Shrugged by Ayn Rand. If you want to learn how capitalist...
9th Jul 2026
A brief, no-fluff, summary of Atlas Shrugged by Ayn Rand. If you want to learn how capitalist countries become socialist, this book will help you. Let’s dive in. Atlas Shrugged: The Simple Version The world depends on a relatively small number of people who build, invent, and...
oftwominds-Charles...
Why We're Helpless When Things Break Down
Only then do we realize that by optimizing profit and efficiency, we've also optimized systemic...
1st May 2026
Only then do we realize that by optimizing profit and efficiency, we've also optimized systemic failure.
In my essay
AI, Money, Human Nature and the Problem with Problems, I refer to boundary conditions but didn't offer a thorough explanation of the role this concept plays...
Musings on Markets
Sovereign Ratings, Default Risk and Markets: The Moody's Downgrade Aftermath!
I was on a family vacation in August 2011 when I received an email from a journalist asking me what...
2nd Jun 2025
I was on a family vacation in August 2011 when I received an email from a journalist asking me what I thought about the S&P ratings downgrade for the US. Since I stay blissfully unaware of most news stories and things related to markets when I am on the beach, I had to look up...
The Diff
Longreads + Open Thread
Funds, Slop, Schools, Lookism, Automation, Bots, Efficiency, Magnitogorsk
1st Aug 2026
Funds, Slop, Schools, Lookism, Automation, Bots, Efficiency, Magnitogorsk
Musings on Markets
Data Update 5 for 2025: It's a small world, after all!
If the title of this post sounds familiar, it is because is one of Disney’s most iconic rides, one...
6th Feb 2025
If the title of this post sounds familiar, it is because is one of Disney’s most iconic rides, one that I have taken hundreds of times, first with my own children and more recently, with my grandchildren. It is a mainstay of every Disney theme park, from the original Disneyland...
The Diff
Routers, Apps, AGI
Plus! Diff Jobs; Peripheral Bets; Fragmentation and Industry Maturity; Deepfakes as Pull Quotes;...
20th Oct 2025
Plus! Diff Jobs; Peripheral Bets; Fragmentation and Industry Maturity; Deepfakes as Pull Quotes; Benchmarks; Platforms
balajis.com
Global Crypto Regulation: Who’s Hot and Who’s Not?
Global crypto regulation is confusing. So I surveyed the information available and created a...
25th May 2022
Global crypto regulation is confusing. So I surveyed the information available and created a heatmap.
Commoncog
Putting Amazon’s PR/FAQ to Practice
What it's like putting Amazon's famed Working Backwards process to practice in a small company...
8th Sep 2022
What it's like putting Amazon's famed Working Backwards process to practice in a small company context, and what was surprising and difficult about it.
The Rational Walk
The Digest #227
Final Issue: Bitcoin at $100K, Buffett and Munger Unscripted, Blue Chip Stamps, Flawed CPI...
5th Dec 2024
Final Issue: Bitcoin at $100K, Buffett and Munger Unscripted, Blue Chip Stamps, Flawed CPI Statistics, Ergodicity, The End of Shame, Notre Dame, Online Censorship, Healthcare Costs, and more ...
Molson Hart's Blog -...
Is the wholesale marketplace Faire right for your e-commerce business or brand?
My company has sold $2.6 million on Faire over the past 4.5 years.
As selling on Amazon has become...
6th Feb 2026
My company has sold $2.6 million on Faire over the past 4.5 years.
As selling on Amazon has become tougher and tougher, we are thankful for the growing sales Faire has brought us.
That said, it's a difficult, counterintuitive marketplace to operate on, and one that is getting,...
Bits about Money
Bits about Money yearly recap and plans
What we covered in 2024, what are plans are in 2025, and a solicitation for supporting memberships.
15th Jan 2025
What we covered in 2024, what are plans are in 2025, and a solicitation for supporting memberships.
Bits about Money
Two Americas, one bank branch, and $50,000 cash
Ever wondered what happens if you try to take $50,000 in cash out of a bank? Answer: a year of...
5th Mar 2025
Ever wondered what happens if you try to take $50,000 in cash out of a bank? Answer: a year of investigative journalism.
oftwominds-Charles...
The Inevitable Drift Down from "Can't Lose" Owning Stocks to "Can't Win"
Even if an AI program advises selling everything and walking away from the market for five years,...
3rd Nov 2025
Even if an AI program advises selling everything and walking away from the market for five years, how many of us would take this advice?
Only those who experienced the heady euphoria of the late 1990s dot-com bubble in tech stocks know what the shift from "can't lose"...
FIRE v London
Sep ’25: Gains continue, and I trim
September was a busy month. In the middle of it we saw a disruptive tube strike. I don’t use the...
11th Oct 2025
September was a busy month. In the middle of it we saw a disruptive tube strike. I don’t use the tube that much so didn’t expect it to affect me much but two important meetings were postponed, one of which still hasn’t happened, so that event has stayed in my memory. Thank...
balajis.com
The Network School
We’re starting a new school near Singapore for the dark talent of the world. Apply online at...
16th Aug 2024
We’re starting a new school near Singapore for the dark talent of the world. Apply online at ns.com/apply.
FIRE v London
August ’24: From triumph to tragedy
Looking back on the month, it was more eventful than Augusts are reputed to be. In the UK we are...
7th Sep 2024
Looking back on the month, it was more eventful than Augusts are reputed to be. In the UK we are getting used to our new government. And, in some cases, violently testing its boundaries with some summer rioting. We’ve seen some dreadful street behaviour, frequently of a racist /...
Bits about Money
Seeing like a Bank
The structural reasons why banks sometimes behave bizarrely in interactions with customers, like...
7th Nov 2023
The structural reasons why banks sometimes behave bizarrely in interactions with customers, like forgetting things which customers tell them.
Musings on Markets
Just do it! Brand Name Lessons from Nike'sTroubles!
I have spent the last week reading "Shoe Dog", Phil Knight's memoir of how a runner on the Oregon...
1st Oct 2024
I have spent the last week reading "Shoe Dog", Phil Knight's memoir of how a runner on the Oregon University track team built one of the great shoe companies in the world, in Nike. In addition to its entertainment value, and it is a fun book to read, I read it for two...
Mazdak
Bank of Canada Holds Rates Steady, Inflation Progress Seen as Insufficient
The Bank of Canada (BoC) opted to maintain its key interest rate at 5% today, signaling a cautious...
6th Mar 2024
The Bank of Canada (BoC) opted to maintain its key interest rate at 5% today, signaling a cautious stance on inflation despite recent declines. Governor Tiff Macklem acknowledged progress in bringing inflation down to 2.9% in January, but emphasized the need for continued...
Bits about Money
A review of Number Go Up, on crypto shenanigans
A review of Zeke Faux's Number Go Up, with some bonus commentary on financial journalism and Tether...
29th Sep 2023
A review of Zeke Faux's Number Go Up, with some bonus commentary on financial journalism and Tether specifically.
The Rational Walk
Warren Buffett’s Final Brushstrokes
Warren Buffett is retiring as CEO of Berkshire Hathaway but he may still make a few final...
5th May 2025
Warren Buffett is retiring as CEO of Berkshire Hathaway but he may still make a few final brushstrokes on his canvas as Chairman.
Musings on Markets
Data Update 1 for 2025: The Draw (and Danger) of Data
For the last four decades, I have spent the first week of each year collecting and analyzing data on...
10th Jan 2025
For the last four decades, I have spent the first week of each year collecting and analyzing data on publicly traded companies and sharing what I find with anyone who is interested. It is the end of the first full week in 2025, and my data update for the year is now up and...
oftwominds-Charles...
Power and Impunity
Those acting with impunity are confident that their powers or god-like because they appear so in the...
2nd Feb 2026
Those acting with impunity are confident that their powers or god-like because they appear so in the human realm. But there are limits to everything in the human realm.
One of the first things we learned about the Internet is that anything sent via email could readily become...
Molson Hart's Blog -...
Is China Taking Over US Retail?
Yes.
Let me explain.
Amazon made it easy for Chinese companies to sell their products directly to...
17th Aug 2021
Yes.
Let me explain.
Amazon made it easy for Chinese companies to sell their products directly to American consumers. In response, the Chinese, after having hollowed out American manufacturing, have moved up the value chain to do the same thing to American wholesale and retail....
oftwominds-Charles...
Begging Bowl '25: I'm Looking for Two Readers Willing to Help Me Buy a New Thrift-Store Shirt
The goal is to move incrementally toward a kind of happiness that actually makes us happy. That's...
2nd Feb 2025
The goal is to move incrementally toward a kind of happiness that actually makes us happy. That's the goal of my work.
I admire unvarnished honesty, which is scarce. And like everything else that's increasingly scarce, it behooves us to hoard our stash. In the unvarnished...
Commoncog
Introducing Xmrit
Some free software to create, modify, experiment with and share XmR charts. Unlock the ability to...
10th Apr 2024
Some free software to create, modify, experiment with and share XmR charts. Unlock the ability to become more data driven today.
Commoncog
How Experts Sensemake
Two decades ago, the US military funded some research into how humans sensemake. This piece is about...
7th Apr 2026
Two decades ago, the US military funded some research into how humans sensemake. This piece is about that theory — the best theory of sensemaking that we have — why it matters for expertise, and how you can apply it to make sense of AI.
Mazdak
LinkedIn Goes All In on Vertical Video
For years, platforms like TikTok, Instagram Reels, and YouTube Shorts have dominated the short-form...
4th Feb 2025
For years, platforms like TikTok, Instagram Reels, and YouTube Shorts have dominated the short-form video space.
Moneyness
A glass half-full take on Caucasus sanctions evasion
Ed Conway of Sky News recently published a very good investigation on sanctions evasion being...
2nd Oct 2024
Ed Conway of Sky News recently published a very good investigation on sanctions evasion being carried out through the Caucasus. He visits the Lars border crossing between Georgia and Russia to document how smugglers are openly moving British and German luxury cars into Russia, in...
Bits about Money
Debanking (and Debunking?)
Crypto advocates kicked off a recent, somewhat politicized, discussion of debanking. Strap in for...
9th Dec 2024
Crypto advocates kicked off a recent, somewhat politicized, discussion of debanking. Strap in for scintillating banking compliance trivia.
Bits about Money
Anatomy of a credit card rewards program
Credit card rewards are mostly funded out of interchange, a fee paid by businesses to accept cards.
29th Mar 2024
Credit card rewards are mostly funded out of interchange, a fee paid by businesses to accept cards.
The Rational Walk
Warren Buffett’s Thanksgiving Letter
Warren Buffett's Thanksgiving Letter sheds more light on why he decided to retire.
11th Nov 2025
Warren Buffett's Thanksgiving Letter sheds more light on why he decided to retire.
Musings on Markets
Anatomy of a Market Crisis: Tariffs, Markets and the Economy!
I was boarding a plane for a trip to Latin America late in the evening last Wednesday (April 2), and...
7th Apr 2025
I was boarding a plane for a trip to Latin America late in the evening last Wednesday (April 2), and as is my practice, I was checking the score on the Yankee game, when I read the tariff news announcement. Coming after a few days where the market seemed to have found its...
Molson Hart's Blog -...
The DECIDE Algorithm — A Simple Step-by-Step Method for Converting Idle Time into Productive Action
DECIDE
D - Determine the Bottleneck
E - Engage with the subject matter
C - Clear distractions
I -...
16th Mar 2025
DECIDE
D - Determine the Bottleneck
E - Engage with the subject matter
C - Clear distractions
I - Implement mental models
D - Decide how to proceed
E - Execute next steps
When you’re traveling or waiting for something to happen, instead of listening to a podcast or scrolling on...
balajis.com
America's $175 Trillion Problem
The true state of the global financial system, in ten charts.
25th Jul 2024
The true state of the global financial system, in ten charts.
The Diff
Longreads + Open Thread
Radio, Startups, History, Bally's, Dead Internet, Caesars
1st Feb 2025
Radio, Startups, History, Bally's, Dead Internet, Caesars
Citation Needed
Issue 54 – Cases continue
Crypto-related litigation is in full swing, as the Terra civil fraud trial has kicked off and two...
2nd Apr 2024
Crypto-related litigation is in full swing, as the Terra civil fraud trial has kicked off and two other cases against crypto companies have survived motions to dismiss.
Citation Needed
We can have a different web
Many yearn for the “good old days” of the web. We could have those good old days back — or something...
1st May 2024
Many yearn for the “good old days” of the web. We could have those good old days back — or something even better — and if anything, it would be easier now than it ever was.
FIRE v London
Nov ’24: 3x
London life I’ve been keeping busy as winter in London sets in. The Christmas lights are all out and...
7th Dec 2024
London life I’ve been keeping busy as winter in London sets in. The Christmas lights are all out and looking resplendent, and both the West End and the City are feeling pretty buzzy. For all the general ‘UK stuck in the weeds’ economic commentary, we feel a long way from any talk...
Seeking Wisdom
Make Every Day Count
It was a 2012 evening, and I was driving home from the office. I was worried about finishing a big...
1st Nov 2023
It was a 2012 evening, and I was driving home from the office. I was worried about finishing a big project at work on time. I’d made the journey from the office to my home so many times, my car almost seemed to know the way by itself. My hands were on the wheel, but…
FIRE v London
Mar ’25: Anticipating tariffs
What’s in the news? Talking about the news in March, give nwhat’s been happing on the tariff front...
11th Apr 2025
What’s in the news? Talking about the news in March, give nwhat’s been happing on the tariff front over the last few weeks, seems a bit pointless. We entered March with a lot of drama about Ukraine, and some notable ‘ceasefire’ activity on the diplomatic front. We finished March...
Citation Needed
Issue 63 – RobConf 2024
Coinbase responds to campaign finance violation allegations, Trump panders to bitcoiners, and I chat...
7th Aug 2024
Coinbase responds to campaign finance violation allegations, Trump panders to bitcoiners, and I chat with Lyn Alden about sexism in bitcoin.
Molson Hart's Blog -...
Brainwashing for Confidence
My mom brainwashed me to be confident.
She told me over and over that I was great and destined for...
15th Apr 2026
My mom brainwashed me to be confident.
She told me over and over that I was great and destined for great things.
And it worked.
To this day, when I lose or make a mistake, I get mad, but I always wind up where my mother left me:
“You’re great. All you need is more practice.”
And...
FIRE v London
Nov ’23 revalues the future
In the news It has been quite a busy month out there. The Israel/Gaza crisis continues. Public...
5th Dec 2023
In the news It has been quite a busy month out there. The Israel/Gaza crisis continues. Public opinion is shifting against the Israel government here, even in North London – which would normally be one of the most sympathetic neighbourhoods outside Tel Aviv. The Ukrainians are...
Bits about Money
The infrastructure behind ATMs
ATMs are connected to banks by networks which operate little-understood payment rails.
2nd Jan 2023
ATMs are connected to banks by networks which operate little-understood payment rails.
The Rational Walk
Greg Abel’s 2026 Letter to Shareholders
Greg Abel's first letter to Berkshire Hathaway shareholders emphasized the need to keep the...
2nd Mar 2026
Greg Abel's first letter to Berkshire Hathaway shareholders emphasized the need to keep the company's unique culture.
Seeking Wisdom
Hello LLMs!
When you are having trouble getting your thinking straight, consider an extreme or simple case. This...
4th Oct 2023
When you are having trouble getting your thinking straight, consider an extreme or simple case. This will often give you the insight needed to move forward. I nodded in agreement when I read the above lines from the book Maxims for Thinking Analytically. ChatGPT took the world by...
Citation Needed
Issue 78 – President on brink of bailout for bitcoin
Trump tries to breathe life back into the crypto markets’ “Trump pump” while federal regulatory...
3rd Mar 2025
Trump tries to breathe life back into the crypto markets’ “Trump pump” while federal regulatory agencies wash their hands of any crypto industry oversight
Mazdak
Apple has a new CEO. Now comes the hard part.
September is here, and there’s actually quite a bit going on.
2 weeks ago
September is here, and there’s actually quite a bit going on.
Commoncog
The Heart of Innovation: Why Most Startups Fail
A theory of demand (and product market fit) that explains it all, and does NOT require ‘pain’ to do...
12th May 2025
A theory of demand (and product market fit) that explains it all, and does NOT require ‘pain’ to do it.
Commoncog
Focus Is Saying No To Good Ideas
Several stories about one of the hardest maxims to put to practice in business.
18th Oct 2022
Several stories about one of the hardest maxims to put to practice in business.
FIRE v London
Feb ’25: The top comes off
What’s in the news? The Trump, is in the news. He gets more than enough coverage without me adding...
15th Mar 2025
What’s in the news? The Trump, is in the news. He gets more than enough coverage without me adding to it. From the point of view of what affects portfolios like mine, a few things happened What’s going on with me? My personal life was quite busy in February. I visited the UK city...
Bits about Money
Fraud Investigation is Believing Your Lying Eyes
The financial industry has paid tens of billions of dollars in tuition on fraud detection. Here are...
6th Feb 2026
The financial industry has paid tens of billions of dollars in tuition on fraud detection. Here are some observations for investigators with badges, press cards, or GoPros.
Musings on Markets
The Greed & Fear Tango: The Markets in April 2025!
I started the month on a trip to Latin America, just as the tariff story hit my newsfeed and the...
3rd May 2025
I started the month on a trip to Latin America, just as the tariff story hit my newsfeed and the market reacted with a sell off that knocked more than $9 trillion in market cap for global equities in the next two days. The month was off to a bad start, and tariffs remained the...
Bits about Money
Banking in very uncertain times
We may be in the early stages of a banking crisis: why, what we're doing to avoid it, and what we...
14th Mar 2023
We may be in the early stages of a banking crisis: why, what we're doing to avoid it, and what we may not get about it.
balajis.com
The Network State Book
A new book on starting new countries. Available on Kindle and for free at thenetworkstate.com.
19th Mar 2022
A new book on starting new countries. Available on Kindle and for free at thenetworkstate.com.
Commoncog
The Amazon Weekly Business Review
Everything you need to know about the Amazon Weekly Business Review: how it works, why it works, and...
2nd Jul 2024
Everything you need to know about the Amazon Weekly Business Review: how it works, why it works, and how it helps Amazon win.
Commoncog
All the Demand Ideas from The Heart of Innovation, Simply Stated
All the ideas of the Heart of Innovation, compressed into one piece.
3rd Mar 2026
All the ideas of the Heart of Innovation, compressed into one piece.
Bits about Money
One Regulation E, Two Very Different Regimes
How consumer protection in payments works, why it was designed that way, and why it’s being...
7th Jan 2026
How consumer protection in payments works, why it was designed that way, and why it’s being contested today.
FIRE v London
Oct ’23: Terror erupts from Gaza
It’s the Middle East again. I don’t have any perspective on it, sadly, other than that I hear of...
5th Nov 2023
It’s the Middle East again. I don’t have any perspective on it, sadly, other than that I hear of some nasty low level youth violence/intimidation/vandalism in North London in Jewish neighbourhoods by pro-Palestinian, dare-I-say-it pro-Hamas hotheads. But in most of London life...
Moneyness
Why sanctions didn’t stop Russia's Garantex from using stablecoins
Stablecoins, a new type of financial institution, are unique in two ways. First, they use...
2nd Apr 2025
Stablecoins, a new type of financial institution, are unique in two ways. First, they use decentralized databases like Ethereum and Tron to run their platforms. Secondly, and more important for the purposes of this article, they grant access to almost anyone, no questions...
Farnam Street
Tobi Lütke: AI Agents, Better Decisions, and the Future of Work
Shopify founder and CEO Tobi Lütke joins Shane Parrish to discuss AI agents, better decision-making,...
6 days ago
Shopify founder and CEO Tobi Lütke joins Shane Parrish to discuss AI agents, better decision-making, and the future of work. He explains how he uses an AI council to examine his hardest decisions and why taste, judgment, and responsibility become more valuable as AI becomes more...
FIRE v London
May ’26: Angelic timing
May was an enjoyable month. I kept reasonably busy, as well as doing a bit of travel around the UK....
17th Jun 2026
May was an enjoyable month. I kept reasonably busy, as well as doing a bit of travel around the UK. I visited King Charles’ Poundbury for the first time, as well as the south coast and the Cotswolds for a weekend. Meanwhile, the news has been dominated by Trump’s Iran war, and in...
Mazdak
⚖️ Copyright Law and Generative AI
Generative AI is revolutionizing the way we create, but it's also raising complex legal questions...
1st Dec 2023
Generative AI is revolutionizing the way we create, but it's also raising complex legal questions about copyright law. 🤯 What's the Issue? 🤔 Copyright law protects original works created by humans. But what about AI-generated content? Is it protected by copyright? 🤔
Seeking Wisdom
Case for indexing
Warren Buffet made a compelling case in favor of indexing in the 2021 Berkshire Hathaway’s AGM. In...
5th Feb 2023
Warren Buffet made a compelling case in favor of indexing in the 2021 Berkshire Hathaway’s AGM. In 1989, 65% of the top 20 global companies were domiciled in Japan. After three decades, 65% of the top 20 global companies are from the US. No companies from Japan made into the top...
Molson Hart's Blog -...
Amazon’s Pricing Policies Promote Inflation
The state of California has sued Amazon in what may be the biggest antitrust case for 25 years, when...
30th Apr 2023
The state of California has sued Amazon in what may be the biggest antitrust case for 25 years, when 20 states joined the US Department of Justice to sue Microsoft. These cases revolve around whether consumers are harmed by the company’s actions. The case against Amazon focuses...
Citation Needed
Issue 59 – Hot damn, this is going to get interesting quickly
Are US legislators warming to crypto? The SEC approves Ethereum ETPs, and a crypto bill gets through...
7th Jun 2024
Are US legislators warming to crypto? The SEC approves Ethereum ETPs, and a crypto bill gets through the House.
Citation Needed
Issue 81 – Crypto crime is legal
Trump continues to dismantle crypto enforcement while expanding his personal crypto empire
8th Apr 2025
Trump continues to dismantle crypto enforcement while expanding his personal crypto empire
Musings on Markets
Revisiting the SpaceX Valuation: A Post-Prospectus Update!
A few weeks ago, I assessed the value of SpaceX ahead of its initial public offering, with the...
4th Jun 2026
A few weeks ago, I assessed the value of SpaceX ahead of its initial public offering, with the admission that I was making my estimates with drabs of data, some of it coming from unofficial sources. I also promised to revisit my valuation, when the prospectus came out, and now...
balajis.com
Too Fake to Tell
US government stats aren't reliable. More importantly, neither are US government bonds.
5th Jun 2023
US government stats aren't reliable. More importantly, neither are US government bonds.
Bits about Money
Fiction and Finance
Recommendations of works of fiction of interest to financial practitioners or enthusiasts.
7th Oct 2024
Recommendations of works of fiction of interest to financial practitioners or enthusiasts.
Moneyness
Stablecoins are non-fungible, bank deposits are fungible
On Twitter/X, I recently suggested that the network effects of the stablecoin market are massive....
14th Jan 2025
On Twitter/X, I recently suggested that the network effects of the stablecoin market are massive. Tether, which has four times more wallets than all other stablecoins, is locked-in as the stablecoin lingua franca, just like English has been locked-in as the global language of...
Mazdak
The Best Age to Start Taking Social Security: It's Not What You Think
When you reach full retirement age (FRA), you can start taking Social Security benefits. But you may...
18th Sep 2023
When you reach full retirement age (FRA), you can start taking Social Security benefits. But you may want to consider taking them sooner, even if it means a smaller monthly check. Here's why: Your benefits will grow by 8% per year for each year you delay taking them, up to age...
oftwominds-Charles...
Disney World's New Theme Park: The White House and Congress
A "Pirates of the Caribbean" themed experience is planned, where the taxpayers are repeatedly robbed...
1st Apr 2026
A "Pirates of the Caribbean" themed experience is planned, where the taxpayers are repeatedly robbed by a motley crew of miscreants.
In a blockbuster deal, an obscure federal agency has granted Disney the rights to develop the White House and Congress as a new FantasyLand...
Commoncog
The Capital Cycle
What a famous investing framework — part of the modern canon of value investing — tells us about the...
20th Sep 2023
What a famous investing framework — part of the modern canon of value investing — tells us about the expertise of capital in business.
Seeking Wisdom
Modeling Life: Foundations
Herman Wouk was researching for a novel he planned to write about World War II. He interviewed...
7th Apr 2024
Herman Wouk was researching for a novel he planned to write about World War II. He interviewed several physicists at Caltech who had worked on the bomb, including Richard Feynman. After the interview, Feynman asked Wouk if he knew Calculus. “No,” said Wouk. To which Feynman...
The Rational Walk
Primary Sources
Consulting primary sources represents table stakes for intelligent investors and responsible...
11th Feb 2025
Consulting primary sources represents table stakes for intelligent investors and responsible citizens.
Commoncog
The 2023 Commoncog Recap
Everything that we covered in 2023, and what to expect now that Commoncog has a new direction.
4th Jan 2024
Everything that we covered in 2023, and what to expect now that Commoncog has a new direction.
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