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Mazdak
How Companies Use Transfer Pricing to Avoid Taxes In the world of finance, there are a myriad of strategies employed by corporations to optimize their...
a year ago
460
a year ago
In the world of finance, there are a myriad of strategies employed by corporations to optimize their tax liabilities. One such method, known as transfer pricing, has become increasingly prevalent in recent years, raising concerns about fairness and equity in the global tax...
The Diff
Central Banks and the Guidance Paradox Plus! Crowded Trades; CoreWeave; The Bots; Accounting; Political Meme Stocks
5 months ago
The Rational Walk
The Limits of the 25th Amendment The 25th Amendment is intended to clarify Presidential succession procedures, but it has severe...
a year ago
115
a year ago
The 25th Amendment is intended to clarify Presidential succession procedures, but it has severe limits that should be acknowledged.
Calculated Risk
Asking Rents Mostly Unchanged Year-over-year Today, in the Real Estate Newsletter: Asking Rents Mostly Unchanged Year-over-year Brief excerpt:...
7 months ago
36
7 months ago
Today, in the Real Estate Newsletter: Asking Rents Mostly Unchanged Year-over-year Brief excerpt: Another monthly update on rents. Apartment List: Asking Rent Growth -0.5% Year-over-year ... On the supply side of the rental market, our national vacancy index ticked up to 6.9...
Calculated Risk
Wednesday: New Home Sales, Architecture Billings Index, Beige Book Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. mortgage...
4 months ago
39
4 months ago
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. mortgage purchase applications index. New Home Sales for March from the Census Bureau. The consensus is for 680 thousand SAAR, up from 676 thousand in February. Architecture Billings Index for...
Musings on Markets
The Greed & Fear Tango: The Markets in April 2025! I started the month on a trip to Latin America, just as the tariff story hit my newsfeed and the...
4 months ago
46
4 months ago
I started the month on a trip to Latin America, just as the tariff story hit my newsfeed and the market reacted with a sell off that knocked more than $9 trillion in market cap for global equities in the next two days. The month was off to a bad start, and tariffs remained the...
Calculated Risk
Housing and Demographics Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Housing and Demographics A brief excerpt:...
4 months ago
27
4 months ago
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Housing and Demographics A brief excerpt: I’ll return to the above graph and discuss some of the implications for the next decade, but first, here is a similar graph for July 2010. The arrow points to the large cohort moving...
Commoncog
One Definition of Wisdom Charlie Munger’s biggest business mistake, and what it tells us about wisdom.
a year ago
Mazdak
The AI Arms Race: A Billion-Dollar Battle for the Future of Intelligence It's not just about building the next big app anymore. In the heart of Silicon Valley, a new arms...
a year ago
112
a year ago
It's not just about building the next big app anymore. In the heart of Silicon Valley, a new arms race is heating up, and the stakes couldn't be higher. This isn't a battle fought with tanks and missiles, but with lines of code and the raw processing power of artificial...
The Diff
AI Interfaces Engineer Serendipity Plus! Third-Order Consequences; A Sovereign Wealth Fund; Artificial Celebrities; Don't Call It...
7 months ago
48
7 months ago
Plus! Third-Order Consequences; A Sovereign Wealth Fund; Artificial Celebrities; Don't Call It Sports Betting; Retaliatory Tariffs
Calculated Risk
Personal Income increased 0.9% in January; Spending Decreased 0.2% The BEA released the Personal Income and Outlays, January 2025 report for January: Personal income...
6 months ago
35
6 months ago
The BEA released the Personal Income and Outlays, January 2025 report for January: Personal income increased $221.9 billion (0.9 percent at a monthly rate) in January, according to estimates released today by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. Disposable personal income...
Calculated Risk
January 12th COVID Update: COVID in Wastewater Increasing Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. For deaths, I'm...
7 months ago
41
7 months ago
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. For deaths, I'm currently using 4 weeks ago for "now", since the most recent three weeks will be revised significantly. Note: "Effective May 1, 2024, hospitals are no longer required to report...
oftwominds-Charles...
The Potential Winners and Losers in Reshoring Supply Chains Until values, priorities and incentives change, "the lifestyle you ordered is currently out of stock...
4 months ago
27
4 months ago
Until values, priorities and incentives change, "the lifestyle you ordered is currently out of stock and on back order, with no estimate of a future delivery date." The ultimate winners and losers in reshoring supply chains to North America have yet to be determined, and...
Commoncog
Power and Asian Business The culmination of the Power in Business mini series. What it’s like doing business without the Rule...
9 months ago
99
9 months ago
The culmination of the Power in Business mini series. What it’s like doing business without the Rule of Law.
Bits about Money
Improving how credit cards work under the covers Card networks are legacy systems. Some bugs have persisted for decades, surprisingly, but they can...
over a year ago
36
over a year ago
Card networks are legacy systems. Some bugs have persisted for decades, surprisingly, but they can be fixed. Stripe provides examples.
Calculated Risk
FOMC Projections: GDP Revised Down, Inflation Revised Up Statement here. press conference video here or on YouTube here, starting at 2:30 PM...
5 months ago
33
5 months ago
Statement here. press conference video here or on YouTube here, starting at 2:30 PM ET. projections.   In December, the FOMC participants’ midpoint of the target level for the federal funds rate was around 3.875% at the end of 2025 (3.6%-4.1%) and the long run range was 2.8% to...
Seeking Wisdom
Case for indexing Warren Buffet made a compelling case in favor of indexing in the 2021 Berkshire Hathaway’s AGM. In...
over a year ago
45
over a year ago
Warren Buffet made a compelling case in favor of indexing in the 2021 Berkshire Hathaway’s AGM. In 1989, 65% of the top 20 global companies were domiciled in Japan. After three decades, 65% of the top 20 global companies are from the US. No companies from Japan made into the top...
The Rational Walk
Progressive is Firing on All Cylinders Progressive resumed aggressive growth in the first quarter of 2024 while reporting a strong combined...
a year ago
Commoncog
Outcome Orientation as a Cure for Information Overload A simple, effective — though not easy! — technique for solving information overload. Written from...
6 months ago
Calculated Risk
New Home Sales Increase to 698,000 Annual Rate in December The Census Bureau reports New Home Sales in December were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate...
7 months ago
41
7 months ago
The Census Bureau reports New Home Sales in December were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 698 thousand. Sales of new single-family houses in December 2024 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 698,000, according to estimates released jointly today by the...
Mazdak
Google’s New AI Summaries in Discover: The Next Blow to Publishers? If you work in media or publishing, brace yourself — another platform update from Google is quietly...
a month ago
32
a month ago
If you work in media or publishing, brace yourself — another platform update from Google is quietly shifting the ground beneath us.
Moneyness
Your finances are being snooped on. Here's how We all have a pretty good idea that our finances are being snooped on, but most of us aren't quite...
a year ago
23
a year ago
We all have a pretty good idea that our finances are being snooped on, but most of us aren't quite able to articulate how. We know that we're being snooped on by two groups, corporations and the government. This post will focus on how the government surveils our transactions,...
Calculated Risk
Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Decrease to 211,000 The DOL reported: seasonally adjusted initial claims was 211,000, a decrease of 9,000 from the...
8 months ago
41
8 months ago
The DOL reported: seasonally adjusted initial claims was 211,000, a decrease of 9,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 1,000 from 219,000 to 220,000. The 4-week moving average was 223,250, a decrease of 3,500 from the previous...
Calculated Risk
Thursday: Unemployment Claims, Trade Deficit, ISM Services Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. initial weekly...
5 months ago
25
5 months ago
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for 225 initial claims up from 224 thousand last week. Trade Balance report for February from the Census Bureau. The...
Commoncog
The Gambling King The start of the Asian Conglomerates Series: we open with a look at the life of Stanley Ho, gambling...
7 months ago
59
7 months ago
The start of the Asian Conglomerates Series: we open with a look at the life of Stanley Ho, gambling king of Macau.
Calculated Risk
Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Decrease to 221,000 The DOL reported: emphasis added The following graph shows the 4-week moving average of weekly...
6 months ago
30
6 months ago
The DOL reported: emphasis added The following graph shows the 4-week moving average of weekly claims since 1971. Click on graph for larger image. The dashed line on the graph is the current 4-week average. The four-week average of weekly unemployment claims increased to...
Bits about Money
Credit card debt collection Credit card debt is the waste stream of consumer finance. The debt collection industry ends up being...
over a year ago
38
over a year ago
Credit card debt is the waste stream of consumer finance. The debt collection industry ends up being sordid, for complex structural and microeconomic reasons.
Calculated Risk
Lawler: Early Read on Existing Home Sales in March From housing economist Tom Lawler: seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.06 million in March, down...
4 months ago
33
4 months ago
From housing economist Tom Lawler: seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.06 million in March, down 4.7% from February’s preliminary pace and down 1.5% from last March’s seasonally adjusted pace. Local realtor/MLS reports suggest that the median existing single-family home sales...
balajis.com
#5 - India's Largest Exit Listen now (161 min) | The $16B acquisition of Flipkart was the largest in Indian tech history....
over a year ago
36
over a year ago
Listen now (161 min) | The $16B acquisition of Flipkart was the largest in Indian tech history. Balaji speaks with Flipkart founder/CEO Binny Bansal on how he built the company from scratch when Indian startups weren't even a thing — and how Flipkart's rise parallels the rise of...
Musings on Markets
Buy the Dip: The Draw and Dangers of Contrarian Investing! When markets are in free fall, there is a great deal of  advice that is meted out to investors, and...
4 months ago
68
4 months ago
When markets are in free fall, there is a great deal of  advice that is meted out to investors, and one is to just buy the dip, i.e., buy beaten down stocks, in the hope that they will recover, or the entire market, if it is down.  "Buying the dip" falls into a broad group of...
Mazdak
The Rise of Nvidia and the Fall of Intel For 25 years, Intel held a coveted spot in the Dow Jones Industrial Average, a testament to its...
10 months ago
63
10 months ago
For 25 years, Intel held a coveted spot in the Dow Jones Industrial Average, a testament to its influence in the tech world.
Calculated Risk
ADP: Private Employment Increased 122,000 in December From ADP: ADP National Employment Report: Private employers added 122,000 jobs in December “The...
8 months ago
39
8 months ago
From ADP: ADP National Employment Report: Private employers added 122,000 jobs in December “The labor market downshifted to a more modest pace of growth in the final month of 2024, with a slowdown in both hiring and pay gains. Health care stood out in the second half of the year,...
Calculated Risk
Newsletter: NAR: Existing-Home Sales Decreased to 4.02 million SAAR in March; Down 2.4% YoY Today, in the CalculatedRisk Real Estate Newsletter: NAR: Existing-Home Sales Decreased to 4.02...
4 months ago
43
4 months ago
Today, in the CalculatedRisk Real Estate Newsletter: NAR: Existing-Home Sales Decreased to 4.02 million SAAR in March; Down 2.4% YoY Sales in March (4.02 million SAAR) were down 5.9% from the previous month and were 2.4% below the February 2024 sales rate. This was the 2nd...
Mazdak
Canadian Real Estate Market Predictions for 2024 As we enter the year 2024, the Canadian real estate market presents a unique landscape for...
a year ago
52
a year ago
As we enter the year 2024, the Canadian real estate market presents a unique landscape for investors. While the explosive growth of recent years is likely to abate, a multitude of factors will continue to shape the market's trajectory. Understanding these factors is crucial for...
Calculated Risk
Schedule for Week of January 26, 2025 The key reports scheduled for this week are the advance estimate of Q4 GDP, December New Home sales,...
7 months ago
49
7 months ago
The key reports scheduled for this week are the advance estimate of Q4 GDP, December New Home sales, December Personal Income and Outlays and November Case-Shiller house prices. ----- Monday, January 27th ----- 8:30 AM: Chicago Fed National Activity Index for December. This is...
oftwominds-Charles...
Roaring 20s or Great Depression 2.0? The binary ahead is the result of a simple law of Nature: adapt or die. Will we revel in a New...
5 months ago
33
5 months ago
The binary ahead is the result of a simple law of Nature: adapt or die. Will we revel in a New Roaring 20s of exhilarating expansion, or will we suffer a Great Depression 2.0? Gordon Long and I explore this binary in our latest podcast. Why is the next decade a binary of...
Calculated Risk
Sunday Night Futures Weekend: Schedule for Week of January 5, 2025 Question #2 for 2025: How much will job growth slow in...
8 months ago
45
8 months ago
Weekend: Schedule for Week of January 5, 2025 Question #2 for 2025: How much will job growth slow in 2025? Or will the economy lose jobs? Question #1 for 2025: How much will the economy grow in 2025? Will there be a recession in 2025? Pre-Market Data and Bloomberg futures S&P 500...
Citation Needed
Issue 57 - I take deep breath and I get real high Changpeng Zhao's sentencing, FOIA requests reveal past FBI investigations into Coinbase, and the SEC...
a year ago
134
a year ago
Changpeng Zhao's sentencing, FOIA requests reveal past FBI investigations into Coinbase, and the SEC is on a Wells notice bender.
Calculated Risk
Asking Rents Mostly Unchanged Year-over-year Today, in the Real Estate Newsletter: Asking Rents Mostly Unchanged Year-over-year Brief excerpt:...
8 months ago
37
8 months ago
Today, in the Real Estate Newsletter: Asking Rents Mostly Unchanged Year-over-year Brief excerpt: Another monthly update on rents. Welcome to the January 2025 Apartment List National Rent Report. The national median monthly rent closed out 2024 at $1,373 in December, after...
Moneyness
Renovatio monetae This silver pfennig from the Archbishopric of Magdeburg (1152-1192) was subject to a policy of...
a year ago
22
a year ago
This silver pfennig from the Archbishopric of Magdeburg (1152-1192) was subject to a policy of renovatio monetae. Twice a year whoever held it had to bring it in to be changed for new coins at a rate of four old coins to three new coins. That suggests an annualized tax rate on...
Calculated Risk
Realtor.com Reports Active Inventory Up 23.5% YoY What this means: On a weekly basis, Realtor.com reports the year-over-year change in active...
8 months ago
42
8 months ago
What this means: On a weekly basis, Realtor.com reports the year-over-year change in active inventory and new listings. On a monthly basis, they report total inventory. For November, Realtor.com reported inventory was up 26.2% YoY, but still down 21.5% compared to the 2017 to...
Citation Needed
Issue 54 – Cases continue Crypto-related litigation is in full swing, as the Terra civil fraud trial has kicked off and two...
a year ago
135
a year ago
Crypto-related litigation is in full swing, as the Terra civil fraud trial has kicked off and two other cases against crypto companies have survived motions to dismiss.
Citation Needed
Follow the Crypto FollowTheCrypto.org: A new project to track cryptocurrency industry spending to influence 2024...
a year ago
132
a year ago
FollowTheCrypto.org: A new project to track cryptocurrency industry spending to influence 2024 elections in the United States.
Citation Needed
Issue 67 – Bug out bitcoin Crypto resurfaces on the campaign trail and the FTX fallout continues to unfold. Also, merch!
11 months ago
Calculated Risk
Housing March 3rd Weekly Update: Inventory down 0.1% Week-over-week, Up 28.3% Year-over-year Altos reports that active single-family inventory was down 0.1% week-over-week. Inventory is now...
6 months ago
29
6 months ago
Altos reports that active single-family inventory was down 0.1% week-over-week. Inventory is now up 2.4% from the seasonal bottom seven weeks ago in January and should start increasing seasonally in March. The first graph shows the seasonal pattern for active single-family...
Citation Needed
Trump’s newest grift: Building a cryptocurrency empire while destroying its regulators Inside the Trump family’s sprawling crypto empire — from memecoins to mining — and how Trump is...
4 months ago
47
4 months ago
Inside the Trump family’s sprawling crypto empire — from memecoins to mining — and how Trump is using presidential power to dismantle the regulators who could stop it
The Diff
Who is Levered to Extreme, but not History-Ending, Growth? Plus! Bond; Capitalizing Nvidia's Strategy; Creator Funds; Adjusted EBITDA; Shortages and Gluts
6 months ago
Mazdak
The ChatGPT Revolution: A Year Later On November 30, 2022, OpenAI released ChatGPT, a large language model (LLM) that quickly captured...
a year ago
112
a year ago
On November 30, 2022, OpenAI released ChatGPT, a large language model (LLM) that quickly captured the attention of the world. ChatGPT's ability to generate human-quality text, translate languages, write different kinds of creative content, and answer questions in an informative...
Citation Needed
Issue 90 – Crime szn bro The Trump administration cracks down on software to limit surveillance of crypto transactions, while...
3 weeks ago
22
3 weeks ago
The Trump administration cracks down on software to limit surveillance of crypto transactions, while celebrating a “deregulatory blitz” tailored for its billionaire benefactors
Calculated Risk
Thursday: Unemployment Claims, PPI, Quarterly Report on Household Debt and Credit Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. initial weekly...
6 months ago
32
6 months ago
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for an increase to 224 thousand from 219 thousand last week. Producer Price Index for January from the BLS. The...