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FIRE v London
April ’24: Juggling cash as new UK tax year begins The temperature in the Middle East got even hotter in April, with Israel and Iran trading attacks on...
a year ago
178
a year ago
The temperature in the Middle East got even hotter in April, with Israel and Iran trading attacks on each other’s sovereign buildings/territory. Somehow World War III has never really seemed in danger of breaking out but it is a reminder that only change is constant. Over in New...
Calculated Risk
April 11th COVID Update: COVID Deaths Continue Declining Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. For deaths, I'm...
4 months ago
25
4 months ago
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. For deaths, I'm currently using 4 weeks ago for "now", since the most recent three weeks will be revised significantly. Note: "Effective May 1, 2024, hospitals are no longer required to report...
The Rational Walk
The River of Doubt The amazing story of Theodore Roosevelt's death defying trek through the unmapped rivers and jungles...
a year ago
104
a year ago
The amazing story of Theodore Roosevelt's death defying trek through the unmapped rivers and jungles of the Amazon River basin.
Calculated Risk
4th Look at Local Housing Markets in November Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: 4th Look at Local Housing Markets in...
8 months ago
56
8 months ago
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: 4th Look at Local Housing Markets in November A brief excerpt: The NAR is scheduled to release November Existing Home sales tomorrow, Thursday, December 19th at 10:00 AM. The consensus is for 3.97 million SAAR, up from 3.96...
Calculated Risk
TSA: Airline Travel up 1% YoY This is something to watch with less international travel. Here are the daily travel numbers from...
4 months ago
41
4 months ago
This is something to watch with less international travel. Here are the daily travel numbers from the TSA. This data is as of April 16, 2025. Click on graph for larger image. Air travel is up about 1.3% YoY.
Calculated Risk
Q4 Update: Delinquencies, Foreclosures and REO Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Q4 Update: Delinquencies, Foreclosures and...
5 months ago
32
5 months ago
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Q4 Update: Delinquencies, Foreclosures and REO A brief excerpt: This entire housing cycle I’ve argued that we would NOT see a surge in foreclosures that would significantly impact house prices (as happened following the...
The Rational Walk
The Digest #216 Trading Berkshire, The Theban Plays, The laws of economics, Fed fairy tales, Buffett's "retirement",...
11 months ago
96
11 months ago
Trading Berkshire, The Theban Plays, The laws of economics, Fed fairy tales, Buffett's "retirement", Caro's writing process, Buffett's ground rules, Sherwin Williams, Mysterious owls
The Rational Walk
The Digest #164 Howard Marks on intelligent risks, Li Lu's amazing life story, Damodaran on streaming, Thompson on...
a year ago
44
a year ago
Howard Marks on intelligent risks, Li Lu's amazing life story, Damodaran on streaming, Thompson on Charter vs. Disney, Taleb's favorite literary works, Buffett's Japanese investments, and more ...
Citation Needed
Issue 84 – Rogue overseas support agents Coinbase’s substantial data breach coincides with a convenient terms of service update, while the...
3 months ago
36
3 months ago
Coinbase’s substantial data breach coincides with a convenient terms of service update, while the GENIUS Act stablecoin bill regains momentum in the Senate
The Diff
Where do AI Agents Get Deployed First? Plus! IP; Bull Markets; Run on the Fund; Moderating Moderation; Paraphrasing Bundling
9 months ago
Calculated Risk
FHFA’s National Mortgage Database: Outstanding Mortgage Rates, LTV and Credit Scores Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: FHFA’s National Mortgage Database: Outstanding...
8 months ago
44
8 months ago
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: FHFA’s National Mortgage Database: Outstanding Mortgage Rates, LTV and Credit Scores A brief excerpt: Here are some graphs on outstanding mortgages by interest rate, the average mortgage interest rate, borrowers’ credit...
Calculated Risk
Q1 GDP Tracking: Wide Range From BofA: Our 1Q GDP tracking remains unchanged at 1.9% q/q saar and our 4Q GDP tracking is down...
5 months ago
28
5 months ago
From BofA: Our 1Q GDP tracking remains unchanged at 1.9% q/q saar and our 4Q GDP tracking is down two tenths to 2.3% q/q saar since our last weekly publication. [Mar 14th] emphasis added From Goldman: We lowered our Q1 GDP tracking estimate by 0.3pp to +1.3% last week. [Mar...
Mazdak
Decentralization Debate: Unpacking Bluesky's Architecture Is Bluesky REALLY decentralized? Join us as we analyze Bluesky's architecture and discuss whether it...
9 months ago
73
9 months ago
Is Bluesky REALLY decentralized? Join us as we analyze Bluesky's architecture and discuss whether it truly lives up to the hype.
Calculated Risk
Thursday: Unemployment Claims Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. initial weekly...
4 months ago
21
4 months ago
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for initial claims of 223 thousand, down from 241 thousand last week.
Calculated Risk
Schedule for Week of January 5, 2024 The key report this week is the December employment report on Friday. ----- Monday, January 6th...
8 months ago
51
8 months ago
The key report this week is the December employment report on Friday. ----- Monday, January 6th ----- No major economic releases scheduled. ----- Tuesday, January 7th ----- 8:30 AM: Trade Balance report for November from the Census Bureau. 10:00 AM ET: Job Openings and Labor...
The Rational Walk
Superinvestor Portfolio Changes — Q3 2023 A few observations based on recent 13F filings, with a focus on Berkshire Hathaway, Dollar General,...
a year ago
58
a year ago
A few observations based on recent 13F filings, with a focus on Berkshire Hathaway, Dollar General, Markel, and Semper Augustus.
Mazdak
Minimize Taxes, Maximize Inheritance: A Canadian Guide to Estate Planning with Real Estate For Canadians nearing retirement, minimizing probate fees and ensuring smooth inheritance become key...
a year ago
67
a year ago
For Canadians nearing retirement, minimizing probate fees and ensuring smooth inheritance become key concerns. In this context, real estate, often the largest asset, presents unique challenges and opportunities. While strategies like adding children to titles were once popular,...
Mazdak
DOJ Breaks Up Google, Elden Ring Sold, and Windows Goes Meta The DOJ is swinging a massive hammer at Google, potentially forcing them to sell off Chrome - will...
9 months ago
60
9 months ago
The DOJ is swinging a massive hammer at Google, potentially forcing them to sell off Chrome - will the internet ever be the same?
Mazdak
How Companies Use Transfer Pricing to Avoid Taxes In the world of finance, there are a myriad of strategies employed by corporations to optimize their...
a year ago
460
a year ago
In the world of finance, there are a myriad of strategies employed by corporations to optimize their tax liabilities. One such method, known as transfer pricing, has become increasingly prevalent in recent years, raising concerns about fairness and equity in the global tax...
Calculated Risk
Watch Inventory and Why Measures of Existing Home Inventory appear Different Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Watch Inventory and Why Measures of Existing...
4 months ago
32
4 months ago
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Watch Inventory and Why Measures of Existing Home Inventory appear Different A brief excerpt: We are in a period of significant policy uncertainty and there isn’t a good historical analog for the current period. However, for...
Mazdak
ChatGPT vs. Google: The AI Search Wars The battle for the future of search is on! ChatGPT, the AI chatbot from OpenAI, can now search the...
10 months ago
42
10 months ago
The battle for the future of search is on! ChatGPT, the AI chatbot from OpenAI, can now search the web, putting it in direct competition with Google.
oftwominds-Charles...
If We Set Aside Ideology, Is There Anything We Can Agree On? Just the experiment of setting aside ideological certainties for a moment would be instructive. ...
6 months ago
40
6 months ago
Just the experiment of setting aside ideological certainties for a moment would be instructive. Humans are hard-wired to prefer simplicity over complexity, and this is the foundation of ideology, which like mythology takes a complex world and radically simplifies it to an...
Calculated Risk
Retail Sales Decreased 0.9% in January On a monthly basis, retail sales decreased 0.9% from December to January (seasonally adjusted), and...
6 months ago
38
6 months ago
On a monthly basis, retail sales decreased 0.9% from December to January (seasonally adjusted), and sales were up 4.2 percent from January 2024. report: Advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for January 2025, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and...
The Diff
Moderation, Inside and Out Plus! General-Purpose Technologies; Growth and Concentration; Cross-Platform; The Amazon Model; More...
7 months ago
51
7 months ago
Plus! General-Purpose Technologies; Growth and Concentration; Cross-Platform; The Amazon Model; More Round-Trips
Calculated Risk
Question #7 for 2025: How much will wages increase in 2025? Earlier I posted some questions on my blog for next year: Ten Economic Questions for 2025. Some of...
8 months ago
47
8 months ago
Earlier I posted some questions on my blog for next year: Ten Economic Questions for 2025. Some of these questions concern real estate (inventory, house prices, housing starts, new home sales), and I posted thoughts on those in the newsletter (others like GDP and employment will...
Calculated Risk
Personal Income increased 0.8% in February; Spending increased 0.4% The BEA released the Personal Income and Outlays report for February: Personal income increased...
5 months ago
30
5 months ago
The BEA released the Personal Income and Outlays report for February: Personal income increased $194.7 billion (0.8 percent at a monthly rate) in February, according to estimates released today by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. Disposable personal income (DPI)—personal...
Calculated Risk
Trade Deficit decreased to $122.7 Billion in February The Census Bureau and the Bureau of Economic Analysis reported: The U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S....
5 months ago
35
5 months ago
The Census Bureau and the Bureau of Economic Analysis reported: The U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis announced today that the goods and services deficit was $122.7 billion in February, down $8.0 billion from $130.7 billion in January, revised. . ...
Calculated Risk
Monday: New Home Sales Weekend: Schedule for Week of December 22, 2024 Ten Economic Questions for 2025 Chicago Fed National...
8 months ago
58
8 months ago
Weekend: Schedule for Week of December 22, 2024 Ten Economic Questions for 2025 Chicago Fed National Activity Index for November. This is a composite index of other data. Durable Goods Orders for November.  The consensus is for a 0.4% decrease. New Home Sales for November from...
Calculated Risk
Las Vegas November 2024: Visitor Traffic Up 0.6% YoY; Convention Traffic Down 8.4% From the Las Vegas Visitor Authority: November 2024 Las Vegas Visitor Statistics Punctuated by the...
7 months ago
48
7 months ago
From the Las Vegas Visitor Authority: November 2024 Las Vegas Visitor Statistics Punctuated by the second annual F1 Las Vegas Grand Prix and the SEMA tradeshow, Las Vegas hosted more than 3.3M visitors in November, slightly up over last year (+0.6% YoY). convention attendance was...
Commoncog
The Joy of Small Markets If you want to get rich, the irony is that small markets are often better than large ones.
3 days ago
The Rational Walk
Berkshire Hathaway’s Q3 2023 — Overview A high level overview of third quarter results and year-to-date repurchase activity.
a year ago
Commoncog
The Skill of Capital What, exactly, is the skill of capital? What does it consist of? How do you recognise it? We walk...
over a year ago
159
over a year ago
What, exactly, is the skill of capital? What does it consist of? How do you recognise it? We walk through three stories, and then talk about the shape of the skill in practice.
Calculated Risk
Lawler: Early Read on Existing Home Sales in November Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Lawler: Early Read on Existing Home Sales in...
8 months ago
60
8 months ago
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Lawler: Early Read on Existing Home Sales in November A brief excerpt: From housing economist Tom Lawler: seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.09 million in November, up 3.3% from October’s preliminary pace and up 4.6% from...
Calculated Risk
The Normal Seasonal Pattern for Median House Prices Last week, in the CalculatedRisk Real Estate Newsletter on March existing home sales, NAR:...
5 months ago
35
5 months ago
Last week, in the CalculatedRisk Real Estate Newsletter on March existing home sales, NAR: Existing-Home Sales Increased to 4.26 million SAAR in February; Down 1.2% YoY, I noted: On a month-over-month basis, median prices increased 1.3% from January and are now down 6.7% from...
The Rational Walk
The Digest #201 Daily Journal, The Oresteia, Elon's compensation, TSMC, Banks in disguise, Reading about stupidity,...
a year ago
127
a year ago
Daily Journal, The Oresteia, Elon's compensation, TSMC, Banks in disguise, Reading about stupidity, Zweig on Ben Graham's continued relevance, 3G Capital, Morgan Housel, Christopher Tsai
Calculated Risk
MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly Survey From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly Survey Mortgage applications...
5 months ago
38
5 months ago
From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly Survey Mortgage applications decreased 6.2 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending March 14, 2025....
Molson Hart's Blog -...
Amazon’s Pricing Policies Promote Inflation The state of California has sued Amazon in what may be the biggest antitrust case for 25 years, when...
over a year ago
21
over a year ago
The state of California has sued Amazon in what may be the biggest antitrust case for 25 years, when 20 states joined the US Department of Justice to sue Microsoft. These cases revolve around whether consumers are harmed by the company’s actions. The case against Amazon focuses...
Calculated Risk
Comments on January Employment Report The headline jobs number in the January employment report was below expectations, however, November...
7 months ago
44
7 months ago
The headline jobs number in the January employment report was below expectations, however, November and December payrolls were revised up by 100,000 combined.   The participation rate and the employment population ratio increased, and the unemployment rate decreased to...
Calculated Risk
March 14th COVID Update: COVID Deaths Declining Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. For deaths, I'm...
5 months ago
29
5 months ago
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. For deaths, I'm currently using 4 weeks ago for "now", since the most recent three weeks will be revised significantly. Note: "Effective May 1, 2024, hospitals are no longer required to report...
Commoncog
How to Use Power How do you gain power, use power, and identify those who have power, so that you may protect...
9 months ago
91
9 months ago
How do you gain power, use power, and identify those who have power, so that you may protect yourself against them? Part two of three in a series on power in business.
Calculated Risk
Thursday: Unemployment Claims Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. initial weekly...
7 months ago
36
7 months ago
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for a increase to 214 thousand from 207 thousand last week.
The Rational Walk
The Digest #184 Ed Thorp: A Man for All Markets, Howard Marks on easy money, Active patience, Activist investing,...
a year ago
102
a year ago
Ed Thorp: A Man for All Markets, Howard Marks on easy money, Active patience, Activist investing, Damodaran's 2024 data update, Michael Ovitz, Live Oak, Red Bull, Capital allocation
Moneyness
Trump-proofing Canada means ending our dependence on SWIFT It's time to stop staring into the headlights and respond to the fact that Canada is being eyed as a...
4 months ago
26
4 months ago
It's time to stop staring into the headlights and respond to the fact that Canada is being eyed as a choice morsel by a much larger predator: our former ally the United States of America. In President Trump's very own words, he wants to use "economic force" to join Canada and the...
Calculated Risk
CPI Preview The Consumer Price Index for December is scheduled to be released tomorrow. The consensus is for...
7 months ago
59
7 months ago
The Consumer Price Index for December is scheduled to be released tomorrow. The consensus is for 0.3% increase in CPI, and a 0.2% increase in core CPI. The consensus is for CPI to be up 2.9% year-over-year and core CPI to be up 3.3% YoY. We expect a 0.25% increase in December...
Commoncog
The Dangers of Expansion A recurring pattern that seems to show up again and again in business: expansion is dangerous, and...
a year ago
107
a year ago
A recurring pattern that seems to show up again and again in business: expansion is dangerous, and everyone really only learns this through pain.
Calculated Risk
Real Estate Newsletter Articles this Week: Property Insurance Costs Rose at a Record Rate in 2024 At the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter this week: Click on graph for larger image. ICE...
6 months ago
27
6 months ago
At the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter this week: Click on graph for larger image. ICE Mortgage Monitor: Property Insurance Costs Rose at a Record Rate in 2024 Fannie and Freddie: Single Family Serious Delinquency Rates Increased in January 1st Look at Local Housing...
Citation Needed
Issue 90 – Crime szn bro The Trump administration cracks down on software to limit surveillance of crypto transactions, while...
3 weeks ago
21
3 weeks ago
The Trump administration cracks down on software to limit surveillance of crypto transactions, while celebrating a “deregulatory blitz” tailored for its billionaire benefactors
The Rational Walk
The Digest #222 Berkshire Hathaway's Q3 Results, BRK 2X Long Daily Target ETF, Presidential Election Polling, Online...
10 months ago
73
10 months ago
Berkshire Hathaway's Q3 Results, BRK 2X Long Daily Target ETF, Presidential Election Polling, Online Speech, Price Controls, Shakespeare's Caesar, Musk and SpaceX, Micro-Cap Investing
The Rational Walk
The Power of Investment Journals Writing down the rationale for investment decisions is a prerequisite for success. This articles...
a year ago
43
a year ago
Writing down the rationale for investment decisions is a prerequisite for success. This articles explores lessons I learned dating back to 2009.
Mazdak
Biden Not to Block TikTok, Apple's Credit Card Dilemma, Google Says No to EU Rules, ... The Biden administration has decided not to enforce the law that could force TikTok to go dark in...
7 months ago