balajis.com
Decentralizing Education with Synthesis
I'm co-leading a round in Synthesis, a startup scaling the custom school built for Elon Musk’s kids.
21st Apr 2022
I'm co-leading a round in Synthesis, a startup scaling the custom school built for Elon Musk’s kids.
Bits about Money
Seeing like a Bank
The structural reasons why banks sometimes behave bizarrely in interactions with customers, like...
7th Nov 2023
The structural reasons why banks sometimes behave bizarrely in interactions with customers, like forgetting things which customers tell them.
Bits about Money
Perpetual futures, explained
Crypto’s most popular product offers capital efficiency for professionals, leveraged exposure for...
5th Dec 2025
Crypto’s most popular product offers capital efficiency for professionals, leveraged exposure for the masses, rich yields for market makers — and a poorly understood failure mode.
balajis.com
The Mirrortable
Mirrortables are to cap tables what stablecoins are to fiat currencies. They streamline and...
26th Dec 2021
Mirrortables are to cap tables what stablecoins are to fiat currencies. They streamline and internationalize the logistical mess of angel investing.
Commoncog
Using the Quartz Crisis to Make Sense of Technological Disruption
Also: the quartz crisis isn’t really about quartz at all. A sensemaking exercise for those who want...
3rd Jul 2026
Also: the quartz crisis isn’t really about quartz at all. A sensemaking exercise for those who want to get better at making sense of possible AI disruption.
Mazdak
Move Your Business Abroad: A Step-by-Step Guide for Entrepreneurs
Expanding your business abroad can be a great way to reach new markets, increase revenue, and...
6th Nov 2023
Expanding your business abroad can be a great way to reach new markets, increase revenue, and diversify your portfolio. However, it's important to do your research and take the necessary steps to ensure a successful transition. Here are some practical tips for entrepreneurs...
FIRE v London
Nov ’25: Coastal Folly loan repaid
Trump dominated the headlines again. This time partly due to some very biased editing by the BBC of...
14th Dec 2025
Trump dominated the headlines again. This time partly due to some very biased editing by the BBC of a Panorama show about Trump before the US election. There was also the omnipresent UK Budget. Which has had more than enough coverage. I did a ‘damage assessment‘ at the time and...
oftwominds-Charles...
Look Out Below
As I often note, making Plans B and C is free.
The stock market is always looking past "bad...
7th Oct 2025
As I often note, making Plans B and C is free.
The stock market is always looking past "bad news" to front-run "good news."
Once it became clear that the Titanic was indeed going to sink, the stock market would rally on the prospect of sharp growth in lifeboat shares. In...
Mazdak
The Best Age to Start Taking Social Security: It's Not What You Think
When you reach full retirement age (FRA), you can start taking Social Security benefits. But you may...
18th Sep 2023
When you reach full retirement age (FRA), you can start taking Social Security benefits. But you may want to consider taking them sooner, even if it means a smaller monthly check. Here's why: Your benefits will grow by 8% per year for each year you delay taking them, up to age...
oftwominds-Charles...
Why Healthcare Is in a Death Spiral: Follow the Money
If each of these is not a part of any 'reform,' than all that is being done is pouring money into a...
1st Dec 2025
If each of these is not a part of any 'reform,' than all that is being done is pouring money into a monopolizing cartel, just in a slightly different way.
Unbeknownst to those of us with little inside knowledge of the complex financial plumbing of the US healthcare system,...
FIRE v London
Feb ’25: The top comes off
What’s in the news? The Trump, is in the news. He gets more than enough coverage without me adding...
15th Mar 2025
What’s in the news? The Trump, is in the news. He gets more than enough coverage without me adding to it. From the point of view of what affects portfolios like mine, a few things happened What’s going on with me? My personal life was quite busy in February. I visited the UK city...
FIRE v London
July ’24: New UK government
July has been quite a busy month. I’ve been getting about a bit. Some South Coast action, some...
5th Aug 2024
July has been quite a busy month. I’ve been getting about a bit. Some South Coast action, some Mediterranean fun, a trip up to Oxford, a visit to one of England’s great Cathedrals, and more. And July saw some fine times in London. Both outdoors and inside. And of course we had...
Seeking Wisdom
What I learned from Prof. Sanjay Bakshi’s Behavioral Economics Course at FLAME University
I had the privilege to attend Prof. Sanjay Bakshi’s Behavioral Economics course at FLAME University....
7th Aug 2022
I had the privilege to attend Prof. Sanjay Bakshi’s Behavioral Economics course at FLAME University. Being his student since 2011, I realized my dream by sitting in his class for 3.5 days. Prof. Bakshi taught us around 20 different models from Charlie Munger’s Psychology of Human...
Molson Hart's Blog -...
Older Articles I’ve Written
In reverse chronological order:
Starting a Physical Product Company? You’re Gonna Need a Lawyer...
13th Dec 2020
In reverse chronological order:
Starting a Physical Product Company? You’re Gonna Need a Lawyer (October 18, 2020)
The Right to a Nonconsensus Opinion (June 9, 2020)
Never Invest in Anything Made of Metal (May 2, 2020)
Simple 3 Step Strategy to Stop the Coronavirus in the...
FIRE v London
August ’24: From triumph to tragedy
Looking back on the month, it was more eventful than Augusts are reputed to be. In the UK we are...
7th Sep 2024
Looking back on the month, it was more eventful than Augusts are reputed to be. In the UK we are getting used to our new government. And, in some cases, violently testing its boundaries with some summer rioting. We’ve seen some dreadful street behaviour, frequently of a racist /...
oftwominds-Charles...
The Power of Our Behavior
Why is any reduction in consumption posed in terms of unbearable sacrifice, when no sacrifices are...
23rd Jan 2025
Why is any reduction in consumption posed in terms of unbearable sacrifice, when no sacrifices are necessary to consequentially reduce consumption?
When we think of the word power, we associate it with external forces: energy, technology, the government, etc. But our own...
balajis.com
The Network School Fellowship
Anyone from anywhere can apply for $100k in funding at ns.com.
18th Apr 2025
Anyone from anywhere can apply for $100k in funding at ns.com.
Commoncog
The Joy of Small Markets
If you want to get rich, the irony is that small markets are often better than large ones.
2nd Sep 2025
If you want to get rich, the irony is that small markets are often better than large ones.
Commoncog
The Hospitality Solution in Your Business
A look at the main provocation of Will Guidara’s Unreasonable Hospitality: that you can solve...
11th Sep 2024
A look at the main provocation of Will Guidara’s Unreasonable Hospitality: that you can solve (certain) business problems with hospitality, and that it only takes a little thoughtfulness to do so.
Mazdak
Claude vs. ChatGPT: A Comprehensive Comparison
In today’s rapidly evolving AI landscape, two names stand out in the realm of conversational...
4th Mar 2025
In today’s rapidly evolving AI landscape, two names stand out in the realm of conversational assistants—Anthropic’s Claude and OpenAI’s ChatGPT. Although both are built on large language models, they diverge sharply in design philosophy, technical implementation, safety...
Moneyness
Trump-proofing Canada means ditching MasterCard and Visa
We're all busy doing our best to boycott U.S. products. I can't buy Special K cereal anymore,...
14th Mar 2025
We're all busy doing our best to boycott U.S. products. I can't buy Special K cereal anymore, because it's made in the U.S. by Kellogg's. But I'm still buying Shreddies, which is made in Niagara Falls, Ontario. Even that's a grey area, since Shreddies is owned by Post, a big...
Mazdak
Working Out Will Change Your Life
Do you want to lose weight? Have more energy? Sleep better? Improve your mood? If so, then you need...
8th Aug 2023
Do you want to lose weight? Have more energy? Sleep better? Improve your mood? If so, then you need to start working out. Working out has a myriad of benefits that can improve your life in many ways. Here are just a few of the ways that working out can change your life:
The Rational Walk
Warren Buffett on Berkshire’s Valuation
Warren Buffett has typically avoided commenting on Berkshire's stock price, but he has provided some...
3rd Mar 2025
Warren Buffett has typically avoided commenting on Berkshire's stock price, but he has provided some clues that are worth considering.
Bits about Money
Requiem for a bank loan
A brief retrospective on an attractive product First Republic used to offer, and a wider discourse...
16th Jun 2023
A brief retrospective on an attractive product First Republic used to offer, and a wider discourse on the banking crisis.
Molson Hart's Blog -...
What Do Brontosauruses Know about Uncoordinated Conspiracies?
Brontosaurus skeleton at the Yale Peabody Museum of Natural History (allegedly)
Let’s pretend for a...
2nd Sep 2024
Brontosaurus skeleton at the Yale Peabody Museum of Natural History (allegedly)
Let’s pretend for a moment that brontosauruses are made up, despite them being accepted by the public and scientific community, having ample evidence for their existence, and appearing in museums all...
balajis.com
What are the Key Properties of Bitcoin?
There are plenty of unwritten rules when it comes to proposing protocol changes in Bitcoin. Some are...
11th Jan 2025
There are plenty of unwritten rules when it comes to proposing protocol changes in Bitcoin. Some are philosophical, some are technical, and some are a blend.
Citation Needed
Issue 71 – (Crypto) banks are not your friends
Celsius’ Alex Mashinsky pleads guilty to fraud, some Tornado Cash sanctions are overturned, and tech...
5th Dec 2024
Celsius’ Alex Mashinsky pleads guilty to fraud, some Tornado Cash sanctions are overturned, and tech billionaires complain about “debanking”.
Mazdak
Google: Monopolized?
Is Google too big? For years, the tech giant has dominated the search market, facing little...
1st Dec 2024
Is Google too big? For years, the tech giant has dominated the search market, facing little competition.
oftwominds-Charles...
Why We're Helpless When Things Break Down
Only then do we realize that by optimizing profit and efficiency, we've also optimized systemic...
1st May 2026
Only then do we realize that by optimizing profit and efficiency, we've also optimized systemic failure.
In my essay
AI, Money, Human Nature and the Problem with Problems, I refer to boundary conditions but didn't offer a thorough explanation of the role this concept plays...
Molson Hart's Blog -...
The Trial: How I lost $1 million dollars and 7 years in a lawsuit over Brain Flakes
I thought I was good.
Until I met Sol.
Solomon Rosengarten is a lawyer from Brooklyn. He has an AOL...
25th Nov 2025
I thought I was good.
Until I met Sol.
Solomon Rosengarten is a lawyer from Brooklyn. He has an AOL email address. He is not great with the mute button on his phone. He sometimes comes across as incompetent.
But, he is the best damned lawyer I have ever known.
Sol is a killer....
FIRE v London
July ’25: New high watermark
There wasn’t a huge amount to report from July. Politically/economically I fear the most important...
16th Aug 2025
There wasn’t a huge amount to report from July. Politically/economically I fear the most important event in the UK was the Labour government’s failure to enact its intended welfare reforms. This leaves the government a) unable to control spending b) unable to nudge the economy...
Citation Needed
Trump to launch branded crypto trading application
New crypto trading and wallet application, created in partnership with Magic Eden, invites fans of...
3rd Jun 2025
New crypto trading and wallet application, created in partnership with Magic Eden, invites fans of President Trump to buy his memecoin
Bits about Money
Debanking (and Debunking?)
Crypto advocates kicked off a recent, somewhat politicized, discussion of debanking. Strap in for...
9th Dec 2024
Crypto advocates kicked off a recent, somewhat politicized, discussion of debanking. Strap in for scintillating banking compliance trivia.
Bits about Money
Credit cards as a legacy system
Credit cards have been in use for almost 75 years. Some long-ago decisions still cause consequences...
2nd Dec 2022
Credit cards have been in use for almost 75 years. Some long-ago decisions still cause consequences in the present day. But change is possible.
The Diff
The Market for Contrarian Talent Doesn't Clear
Plus! Bootstrapping a Consumer-Facing Negawatt Market; Real Estate; Aggregators; Training Data;...
1st May 2026
Plus! Bootstrapping a Consumer-Facing Negawatt Market; Real Estate; Aggregators; Training Data; Supply Chains
Commoncog
How Experts Sensemake
Two decades ago, the US military funded some research into how humans sensemake. This piece is about...
7th Apr 2026
Two decades ago, the US military funded some research into how humans sensemake. This piece is about that theory — the best theory of sensemaking that we have — why it matters for expertise, and how you can apply it to make sense of AI.
Seeking Wisdom
Modeling Life: Foundations
Herman Wouk was researching for a novel he planned to write about World War II. He interviewed...
7th Apr 2024
Herman Wouk was researching for a novel he planned to write about World War II. He interviewed several physicists at Caltech who had worked on the bomb, including Richard Feynman. After the interview, Feynman asked Wouk if he knew Calculus. “No,” said Wouk. To which Feynman...
The Diff
Who Decides What AI Can Do?
Plus! Diff Jobs; Fun Trades; Insiders; M&A; Two-Tier Rounds; Switching Costs
2nd Mar 2026
Plus! Diff Jobs; Fun Trades; Insiders; M&A; Two-Tier Rounds; Switching Costs
balajis.com
The Network State Conference
Come to Singapore on September 22, 2024 to build technodemocracy.
15th Oct 2023
Come to Singapore on September 22, 2024 to build technodemocracy.
Farnam Street
Evaluating Information: Find the Signal in the Noise
We are drowning in information. Most of that information is irrelevant. If only we could sort what...
3rd Aug 2022
We are drowning in information. Most of that information is irrelevant. If only we could sort what matters from what doesn’t. The good news is that you can train your brain to evaluate the quality of information. Not only can you quickly determine if someone knows what they are...
Bits about Money
Fiction and Finance
Recommendations of works of fiction of interest to financial practitioners or enthusiasts.
7th Oct 2024
Recommendations of works of fiction of interest to financial practitioners or enthusiasts.
Mazdak
⚖️ Copyright Law and Generative AI
Generative AI is revolutionizing the way we create, but it's also raising complex legal questions...
1st Dec 2023
Generative AI is revolutionizing the way we create, but it's also raising complex legal questions about copyright law. 🤯 What's the Issue? 🤔 Copyright law protects original works created by humans. But what about AI-generated content? Is it protected by copyright? 🤔
Commoncog
Data and the Capital Cycle: How Koch Became an Empire
How Koch Industries became an empire. We draw on ideas from both the Becoming Data Driven series and...
11th Dec 2023
How Koch Industries became an empire. We draw on ideas from both the Becoming Data Driven series and the Capital Expertise series.
Musings on Markets
Just do it! Brand Name Lessons from Nike'sTroubles!
I have spent the last week reading "Shoe Dog", Phil Knight's memoir of how a runner on the Oregon...
1st Oct 2024
I have spent the last week reading "Shoe Dog", Phil Knight's memoir of how a runner on the Oregon University track team built one of the great shoe companies in the world, in Nike. In addition to its entertainment value, and it is a fun book to read, I read it for two...
Bits about Money
Money laundering and AML compliance
A brief overview of what money laundering is, what financial institutions do about it, and why.
10th Feb 2023
A brief overview of what money laundering is, what financial institutions do about it, and why.
Moneyness
Tornado Cash un-OFAC'ed
The next chapter in the Tornado Cash saga just dropped. Last week a court ruled last that Tornado...
5th Dec 2024
The next chapter in the Tornado Cash saga just dropped. Last week a court ruled last that Tornado Cash, a bot that can be used for obfuscating crypto, is safe from being sanctioned.
I first wrote about Tornado Cash in 2021, before its legal troubles began, warning of the risks...
Musings on Markets
Revisiting the SpaceX Valuation: A Post-Prospectus Update!
A few weeks ago, I assessed the value of SpaceX ahead of its initial public offering, with the...
4th Jun 2026
A few weeks ago, I assessed the value of SpaceX ahead of its initial public offering, with the admission that I was making my estimates with drabs of data, some of it coming from unofficial sources. I also promised to revisit my valuation, when the prospectus came out, and now...
Moneyness
Setelinleikkaus: When Finns snipped their cash in half to curb inflation
On the last day of 1945, with World War II finally behind it, Finland's government announced a new...
8th Nov 2024
On the last day of 1945, with World War II finally behind it, Finland's government announced a new and very strange policy.
All Finns were required to take out a pair of scissors and snip their banknotes in half. This was known in Finland as setelinleikkaus, or banknote cutting....
Molson Hart's Blog -...
Heureka
A “heureka” is a surprisingly powerful yet simple solution to a complex optimization problem, which...
20th Sep 2025
A “heureka” is a surprisingly powerful yet simple solution to a complex optimization problem, which is theoretically inferior to more complicated solutions, but is, in practice, optimal.
Example:
“I’m a 22 year old Phi Beta Kappa alumnus of University of Iowa and I have this idea...
FIRE v London
Dec ’25: 2025 in review
It’s over. The year of 2025, the thirteenth year I’ve been systematically tracking my investment...
19th Jan 2026
It’s over. The year of 2025, the thirteenth year I’ve been systematically tracking my investment portfolio every month, is over. One of the reasons I blog is to track my performance with a bit more discipline and rigour than I might manage otherwise. And part of that process is...
Molson Hart's Blog -...
When People Outperform Data
People who succeed via analysis of numbers and facts need to learn that understanding of people can...
23rd Nov 2024
People who succeed via analysis of numbers and facts need to learn that understanding of people can make that analysis unnecessary and can even outperform it.
Examples:
1. Amazon did not make money between its 1994 founding through 2002. There was no financial or business...
The Diff
The Surprising Distribution Effects of "Buy-Borrow-Die"
Plus! Full-Stack; Scarcity; Sum-of-the-Parts; Nice Problems to Have; Distribution
2nd Jan 2026
Plus! Full-Stack; Scarcity; Sum-of-the-Parts; Nice Problems to Have; Distribution
Farnam Street
Why Write
Why write an essay when you can type a few words and have AI generate one for you? Why write an...
9th Mar 2023
Why write an essay when you can type a few words and have AI generate one for you? Why write an email when AI can auto-respond for you with all the typical pleasantries and talking-points? While AI doing these things for you is likely to happen, it’s not necessarily a good thing....
oftwominds-Charles...
25 Years of Higher Interest Rates Ahead?
Interest rates are linked to inflation, but they're also linked to risk.
As a result of...
2nd May 2025
Interest rates are linked to inflation, but they're also linked to risk.
As a result of recency bias, where we assume the recent past is a permanent state of affairs, many believe near-zero interest rates are "normal." They aren't. As the chart of 10-year US Treasury...
Farnam Street
Chesterton’s Fence: A Lesson in Second Order Thinking
A core component of making great decisions is understanding the rationale behind previous decisions....
5th Sep 2022
A core component of making great decisions is understanding the rationale behind previous decisions. If we don’t understand how we got “here,” we run the risk of making things much worse. *** When we seek to intervene in any system created by someone, it’s not enough to view...
Citation Needed
Issue 65 – World Liberty Fiasco
Even the most pro-Trump crypto faithful think Trump’s new crypto scheme is a terrible idea.
6th Sep 2024
Even the most pro-Trump crypto faithful think Trump’s new crypto scheme is a terrible idea.
Seeking Wisdom
It’s a treasure trove of health insights!
Use Insulin wisely Life on Earth started simple. For nearly 2 billion years, tiny single-celled...
21st Oct 2024
Use Insulin wisely Life on Earth started simple. For nearly 2 billion years, tiny single-celled organisms dominated. Then, a lucky accident changed everything. One cell swallowed another, and the swallowed cell became mitochondria, the powerhouse of complex cells. This chance...
Bits about Money
Banking in very uncertain times
We may be in the early stages of a banking crisis: why, what we're doing to avoid it, and what we...
14th Mar 2023
We may be in the early stages of a banking crisis: why, what we're doing to avoid it, and what we may not get about it.
Musings on Markets
Data Update 4 for 2026: The Global Perspective!
If you have read my first three data updates in 2026, I won’t blame you if you skip this one,...
2nd Feb 2026
If you have read my first three data updates in 2026, I won’t blame you if you skip this one, because you found them long and boring. I won't take issue with you either if you viewed them as too US-focused, because I did spend my second data update, looking at US equities, and my...
Commoncog
How to Become an Asian Tycoon
Every Asian tycoon becomes a tycoon in the exact same way. Learning to see this core pattern is half...
1st Apr 2025
Every Asian tycoon becomes a tycoon in the exact same way. Learning to see this core pattern is half the battle.
Musings on Markets
The Corporate Life Cycle: Managing, Valuation and Investing Implications!
As I reveal my ignorance about TikTok trends, social media celebrities and Gen Z slang, my children...
20th Aug 2024
As I reveal my ignorance about TikTok trends, social media celebrities and Gen Z slang, my children are quick to point out my age, and I accept that reality, for the most part. I understand that I am too old to exercise without stretching first or eat a heaping plate of cheese...
Mazdak
Markets Under Pressure: What Really Happens When the World Feels Unstable
When global tension rises, investors instinctively reach for the exit.
19th Jan 2026
When global tension rises, investors instinctively reach for the exit.
Molson Hart's Blog -...
Is China Taking Over US Retail?
Yes.
Let me explain.
Amazon made it easy for Chinese companies to sell their products directly to...
17th Aug 2021
Yes.
Let me explain.
Amazon made it easy for Chinese companies to sell their products directly to American consumers. In response, the Chinese, after having hollowed out American manufacturing, have moved up the value chain to do the same thing to American wholesale and retail....
Mazdak
Google’s New AI Summaries in Discover: The Next Blow to Publishers?
If you work in media or publishing, brace yourself — another platform update from Google is quietly...
15th Jul 2025
If you work in media or publishing, brace yourself — another platform update from Google is quietly shifting the ground beneath us.
Mazdak
Understanding the Stock Market Cycle
The stock market cycle is a crucial concept for investors aiming to navigate the financial markets...
7th Jun 2024
The stock market cycle is a crucial concept for investors aiming to navigate the financial markets effectively. It represents the period from a market low to a peak and back again. Understanding the dynamics behind these cycles can help investors maintain their strategies during...
The Rational Walk
Greg Abel’s Unique Challenge
Greg Abel takes over as Chief Executive Officer of Berkshire Hathaway on January 1, 2026, a job that...
31st Dec 2025
Greg Abel takes over as Chief Executive Officer of Berkshire Hathaway on January 1, 2026, a job that will involve at least three major challenges.
Mazdak
LinkedIn Goes All In on Vertical Video
For years, platforms like TikTok, Instagram Reels, and YouTube Shorts have dominated the short-form...
4th Feb 2025
For years, platforms like TikTok, Instagram Reels, and YouTube Shorts have dominated the short-form video space.
Commoncog
How to Use Power
How do you gain power, use power, and identify those who have power, so that you may protect...
2nd Dec 2024
How do you gain power, use power, and identify those who have power, so that you may protect yourself against them? Part two of three in a series on power in business.
Musings on Markets
Country Risk: Drivers, Measures and Investment Implications - The 2026 Edition!
I am a creature of habit in my personal and professional life, and in the context of the content...
15th Jul 2026
I am a creature of habit in my personal and professional life, and in the context of the content that I post online, there is a ritual that I follow with my data updates. I start the year with my general data update online, and follow up with a series of posts where I examine the...
Musings on Markets
The Power of Expectations: Nvidia's Earnings and the Market Reaction!
Last Wednesday (August 28), the market waited with bated breath for Nvidia’s earning call, scheduled...
6th Sep 2024
Last Wednesday (August 28), the market waited with bated breath for Nvidia’s earning call, scheduled for after the market closed. That call, at first sight, contained exceptionally good news, with revenues and earnings coming in at stratospheric levels, and above expectations,...
Musings on Markets
Sovereign Ratings, Default Risk and Markets: The Moody's Downgrade Aftermath!
I was on a family vacation in August 2011 when I received an email from a journalist asking me what...
2nd Jun 2025
I was on a family vacation in August 2011 when I received an email from a journalist asking me what I thought about the S&P ratings downgrade for the US. Since I stay blissfully unaware of most news stories and things related to markets when I am on the beach, I had to look up...
Commoncog
All the Demand Ideas from The Heart of Innovation, Simply Stated
All the ideas of the Heart of Innovation, compressed into one piece.
3rd Mar 2026
All the ideas of the Heart of Innovation, compressed into one piece.
oftwominds-Charles...
The Joys and Tragedies of Naivete
Our naivete is being exploited so ruthlessly and with such abandon that the golden age of the Big...
5th Aug 2026
Our naivete is being exploited so ruthlessly and with such abandon that the golden age of the Big Con is consuming itself.
Naivete is interesting because it's so easily confused with confidence, native optimism, youthful enthusiasm, and a host of delusions, including...
Moneyness
A glass half-full take on Caucasus sanctions evasion
Ed Conway of Sky News recently published a very good investigation on sanctions evasion being...
2nd Oct 2024
Ed Conway of Sky News recently published a very good investigation on sanctions evasion being carried out through the Caucasus. He visits the Lars border crossing between Georgia and Russia to document how smugglers are openly moving British and German luxury cars into Russia, in...
Citation Needed
Issue 76 – Tripartisan legislation
Crypto exchanges face legal troubles, and Trump’s crypto empire grows as regulations are slashed and...
6th Feb 2025
Crypto exchanges face legal troubles, and Trump’s crypto empire grows as regulations are slashed and enforcement is sidelined.
FIRE v London
Sep ’25: Gains continue, and I trim
September was a busy month. In the middle of it we saw a disruptive tube strike. I don’t use the...
11th Oct 2025
September was a busy month. In the middle of it we saw a disruptive tube strike. I don’t use the tube that much so didn’t expect it to affect me much but two important meetings were postponed, one of which still hasn’t happened, so that event has stayed in my memory. Thank...
oftwominds-Charles...
The War
That I don't have an analysis or insight to offer doesn't mean I don't care. It simply means there...
1st Mar 2026
That I don't have an analysis or insight to offer doesn't mean I don't care. It simply means there are limits on what we know, and what we do know suggests circumspection.
War seems to demand some response--opinion, analysis, insight--lest it seem that we're uncaring or...
oftwominds-Charles...
AI Data Centers Are Not the Railroads of Today
The AI boom shares all the risk profiles of previous speculative manias but lacks society-wide...
1st Jun 2026
The AI boom shares all the risk profiles of previous speculative manias but lacks society-wide benefits while generating fast-metastasizing negative consequences and costs.
The idea that the current bubble in AI data centers is an echo of the railroad-construction bubble of...
FIRE v London
My exits – a post mortem
Readers will know that I dabble with active investing – I pick stocks. Lord, make me passive, but...
4th Feb 2025
Readers will know that I dabble with active investing – I pick stocks. Lord, make me passive, but not yet Rather like The Investor at Monevator, I firmly believe in the merits of low cost index tracking as an investment strategy, but I also enjoy the thrills / intellectual...
Musings on Markets
The Scaling and Profitability Trade off: Venture Capital's Weakest Link!
It is undeniable technology companies have found their most hospitable setting in the United States...
2 weeks ago
It is undeniable technology companies have found their most hospitable setting in the United States and while there are many reasons for the US dominance of technology, easier access to capital for young businesses has been a key ingredient. Venture capital in the US, in its...
Commoncog
You Aren't Learning If You Don't Close the Loops
Every experimentation and iteration loop looks the same, but the vast majority of folk in business...
2nd Nov 2022
Every experimentation and iteration loop looks the same, but the vast majority of folk in business don't seem to have the discipline to execute till the end. Why this is, and why it's hard.
Molson Hart's Blog -...
Why We Shouldn’t “Buy the Dip”
“Buying the dip” is buy stocks whenever there is a short-term decline in stock prices, under the...
29th May 2023
“Buying the dip” is buy stocks whenever there is a short-term decline in stock prices, under the assumption that asset prices will quickly revert, enabling you to make money.
This article explains why a government-driven culture of “buying the dip” can be damaging to you and...
balajis.com
Popups are the new startups
Now you can materialize your cloud community into the real world.
12th Oct 2025
Now you can materialize your cloud community into the real world.
The Rational Walk
The Digest #226
Warren Buffett donates $1.15 billion to his family foundations
26th Nov 2024
Warren Buffett donates $1.15 billion to his family foundations
Bits about Money
Two Americas, one bank branch, and $50,000 cash
Ever wondered what happens if you try to take $50,000 in cash out of a bank? Answer: a year of...
5th Mar 2025
Ever wondered what happens if you try to take $50,000 in cash out of a bank? Answer: a year of investigative journalism.
The Diff
Routers, Apps, AGI
Plus! Diff Jobs; Peripheral Bets; Fragmentation and Industry Maturity; Deepfakes as Pull Quotes;...
20th Oct 2025
Plus! Diff Jobs; Peripheral Bets; Fragmentation and Industry Maturity; Deepfakes as Pull Quotes; Benchmarks; Platforms
The Rational Walk
Buffett Completes Succession Plan
Warren Buffett has completed Berkshire's succession plan as he steps down as Chairman.
22 hours ago
Warren Buffett has completed Berkshire's succession plan as he steps down as Chairman.
Commoncog
How to Improve at Sensemaking AI?
What we can learn from the disorienting changes hitting the software industry, and how we can use...
3rd May 2026
What we can learn from the disorienting changes hitting the software industry, and how we can use that to improve at sensemaking this uncertain new technology.
oftwominds-Charles...
Pretense, Staging, Expediency: the "Solutions" That Implode the Whole Shebang
Slapdash quick fixes and policies share one characteristic: they eventually implode the whole...
1st Jan 2026
Slapdash quick fixes and policies share one characteristic: they eventually implode the whole shebang.
We all know how this works: the business is failing and the divorce papers have been filed, but the optics are ugly, so the couple waltzes in, all smiles and lovey-dovey,...
Bits about Money
The Long Shadow of Checks
A lot of more modern financial infrastructure follows the paths blazed by checks, at least in the...
13th Dec 2023
A lot of more modern financial infrastructure follows the paths blazed by checks, at least in the U.S.
Citation Needed
Elon Musk and the right’s war on Wikipedia
The world's richest man has joined a growing chorus of right-wing voices attacking Wikipedia as part...
2nd Jan 2025
The world's richest man has joined a growing chorus of right-wing voices attacking Wikipedia as part of an intensifying campaign against free and open access information.
Commoncog
Is This a Moat: Mailchimp and PayPal’s Algorithmic Advantage
Two case studies of real world competitive advantage, followed by a question: was this a moat or...
12th Dec 2022
Two case studies of real world competitive advantage, followed by a question: was this a moat or not?
Citation Needed
Issue 50 – Bitcoin busts
Governments seize huge quantities of bitcoin, and a few people seem to be yearning for the days of...
2nd Feb 2024
Governments seize huge quantities of bitcoin, and a few people seem to be yearning for the days of peak crypto mania.
The Diff
Imperfectly Enforced Rules Create Bad Local Maxima
Plus! Ads; Marketing; Pricing; Take Rates; SPVs
2 weeks ago
Plus! Ads; Marketing; Pricing; Take Rates; SPVs
Mazdak
The Ultimate Small Business Hiring Guide
How to Find the Right Fit for Your Team
9th Oct 2024
How to Find the Right Fit for Your Team
balajis.com
The Bitcoin ETF is the spiritual reversal of Executive Order 6102
Back in 1935, they seized the gold. But now, digital gold is back.
11th Jan 2024
Back in 1935, they seized the gold. But now, digital gold is back.
Bits about Money
Deposit insurance maximization as a service
In the wake of the recent banking crisis, there is some attention to deposit insurance limits. Some...
5th Apr 2023
In the wake of the recent banking crisis, there is some attention to deposit insurance limits. Some products increase them; here is how.
Bits about Money
A window into modern loan origination
A four party consortium can underwrite, fund, and execute a consumer loan in 15 minutes. Here's how.
10th Oct 2025
A four party consortium can underwrite, fund, and execute a consumer loan in 15 minutes. Here's how.
FIRE v London
Feb ’26: Before Iran
So, for the avoidance of doubt, the end of the month is the last trading day of the month. Which for...
16th Mar 2026
So, for the avoidance of doubt, the end of the month is the last trading day of the month. Which for February, meant Friday February 27th. The fact that the Israelis and the Americans invaded Iran on February 28th is going to impact March, not February. Which is just as well...
Commoncog
Mental Strength in Judo; Mental Strength in Life
Results of a four month accelerated expertise experiment in Judo. Or: "I expected to learn about...
3rd May 2023
Results of a four month accelerated expertise experiment in Judo. Or: "I expected to learn about deliberate practice but instead learnt a ton about my mental shortcomings."
The Diff
What Kills Cartels?
Plus! Diff Jobs; Strategic Investments; Media Form Factors; Fees; Critical Minerals; Brand Names
2nd Feb 2026
Plus! Diff Jobs; Strategic Investments; Media Form Factors; Fees; Critical Minerals; Brand Names
FIRE v London
Dec ’24 – 2024 in review
And we’re off, into 2025. Before we get too far, it’s time to take stock (pardon the pun) of 2024....
7th Jan 2025
And we’re off, into 2025. Before we get too far, it’s time to take stock (pardon the pun) of 2024. I’ll follow the 7 point approach I’ve used for the last few years, starting with the wider market context. Q1 How did markets do? December saw falls across most asset classes –...
Musings on Markets
A Golden Year (2025): Gold's Price Surge - The Signal in the Noise!
I grew up in India in a time where if you had wealth, your investment options were limited. A stock...
6th Nov 2025
I grew up in India in a time where if you had wealth, your investment options were limited. A stock market with sparse listings, accompanied by a lack of trust in financial assets, led investors to put their wealth into tangible assets. Real estate was the most common choice but...
Bits about Money
Financial systems take a holiday
Ever wondered about what happens when banks are closed or why some apps have operating hours? It's...
29th Feb 2024
Ever wondered about what happens when banks are closed or why some apps have operating hours? It's fascinating.
Calculated Risk
Economic Tailwinds and Headwinds
After the election in November 2016, I pointed out that the economy was solid, that there were...
1st Apr 2025
After the election in November 2016, I pointed out that the economy was solid, that there were significant economic tailwinds and that it was unlikely that Mr. Trump would do everything he said during the campaign. See: The Future is still Bright! and The Cupboard is Full.
I...
Mazdak
Capital Gains Tax Hike: Sell Now or Hold On? A Canadian Investor's Guide
Canada's recent federal budget has sent ripples through the investment and real estate communities....
24th May 2024
Canada's recent federal budget has sent ripples through the investment and real estate communities. A key change: a looming increase in capital gains tax on sizeable transactions. This has many wondering – should I sell assets before June 25th, 2024, to avoid the taxman's bite?...
Commoncog
The Gambling King
The start of the Asian Conglomerates Series: we open with a look at the life of Stanley Ho, gambling...
2nd Feb 2025
The start of the Asian Conglomerates Series: we open with a look at the life of Stanley Ho, gambling king of Macau.
Musings on Markets
The Greed & Fear Tango: The Markets in April 2025!
I started the month on a trip to Latin America, just as the tariff story hit my newsfeed and the...
3rd May 2025
I started the month on a trip to Latin America, just as the tariff story hit my newsfeed and the market reacted with a sell off that knocked more than $9 trillion in market cap for global equities in the next two days. The month was off to a bad start, and tariffs remained the...
FIRE v London
Oct ’24: Budgets & broad shoulders
I haven’t seen much of London in October. I’ve been away every weekend in October, partly in the UK...
2nd Nov 2024
I haven’t seen much of London in October. I’ve been away every weekend in October, partly in the UK and partly visiting friends overseas. And now we’re in November, the clocks have gone back, but temperatures haven’t plummeted yet. London feels busy – pubs still have crowds...
Musings on Markets
The Wisdom and Madness of Crowds: Market Prices as Political Predictors!
In this, the first full week in November 2024, the big news stories of this week are political, as...
7th Nov 2024
In this, the first full week in November 2024, the big news stories of this week are political, as the US presidential election reached its climactic moment on Tuesday, but I don't write about politics, not because I do not have political views, but because I reserve those views...
Bits about Money
Anatomy of a credit card rewards program
Credit card rewards are mostly funded out of interchange, a fee paid by businesses to accept cards.
29th Mar 2024
Credit card rewards are mostly funded out of interchange, a fee paid by businesses to accept cards.
FIRE v London
April ’24: Juggling cash as new UK tax year begins
The temperature in the Middle East got even hotter in April, with Israel and Iran trading attacks on...
11th May 2024
The temperature in the Middle East got even hotter in April, with Israel and Iran trading attacks on each other’s sovereign buildings/territory. Somehow World War III has never really seemed in danger of breaking out but it is a reminder that only change is constant. Over in New...
Citation Needed
Issue 69 – Nice
Coinbase threatens me that continuing to report on their activities would be “.... unwise”. Also,...
2nd Nov 2024
Coinbase threatens me that continuing to report on their activities would be “.... unwise”. Also, election spending hits a fever pitch, with several new crypto PACs coming out of the woodwork.
Commoncog
Putting the Jobs to be Done Interview to Practice
Things we wished someone told us, before we put the JTBD interview to practice.
9th Jul 2025
Things we wished someone told us, before we put the JTBD interview to practice.
Mazdak
Trillions Flow into AI: The New Infrastructure Arms Race
🌐 Big Tech Bets Trillions on AI Infrastructure
26th Jun 2025
🌐 Big Tech Bets Trillions on AI Infrastructure
Citation Needed
Citation Needed has a new home
Citation Needed is no longer hosted on Substack. Welcome to my antifascist bar.
5th Jan 2024
Citation Needed is no longer hosted on Substack. Welcome to my antifascist bar.
oftwominds-Charles...
The Irresistible Temptations of Centralized Power
The only "reform" that changes our lives in a fundamentally positive way is radical decentralization...
2 weeks ago
The only "reform" that changes our lives in a fundamentally positive way is radical decentralization via distributing centralized power.
Presidents like to deal with the CEOs of corporate monopolies for self-evident reasons: Rather than engage in the tedious, contentious...
FIRE v London
Feb ’23: taking profits
February was cold, but mercifully dry. The days are becoming a welcome bit longer. London is filling...
14th Mar 2023
February was cold, but mercifully dry. The days are becoming a welcome bit longer. London is filling up again, post covid, though Mondays and Fridays remain subdued to put it mildly. Market movements in February In the markets, February started strongly, but then something...
FIRE v London
Oct ’23: Terror erupts from Gaza
It’s the Middle East again. I don’t have any perspective on it, sadly, other than that I hear of...
5th Nov 2023
It’s the Middle East again. I don’t have any perspective on it, sadly, other than that I hear of some nasty low level youth violence/intimidation/vandalism in North London in Jewish neighbourhoods by pro-Palestinian, dare-I-say-it pro-Hamas hotheads. But in most of London life...
Mazdak
Twitter vs. Instagram Threads: The Battle for the Short-Form Social Media Crown
Twitter and Instagram are two of the most popular social media platforms in the world. They both...
8th Jul 2023
Twitter and Instagram are two of the most popular social media platforms in the world. They both offer users a way to share short-form content, but they have different approaches to how that content is displayed and consumed. Twitter is a more public platform, where anyone can...
Commoncog
You’re Always Selling to a Situation, Not an ICP
One simple idea that falls out of the Heart of Innovation book — that you can use immediately — is...
19th Jun 2025
One simple idea that falls out of the Heart of Innovation book — that you can use immediately — is this idea of selling into situations, not selling to ideal customer profiles. It’s what the pros do anyway.
Mazdak
OpenAI Launches GPT-5
On August 7, 2025, OpenAI officially released GPT-5, its latest flagship model, to the world.
7th Aug 2025
On August 7, 2025, OpenAI officially released GPT-5, its latest flagship model, to the world.
Moneyness
Why sanctions didn’t stop Russia's Garantex from using stablecoins
Stablecoins, a new type of financial institution, are unique in two ways. First, they use...
2nd Apr 2025
Stablecoins, a new type of financial institution, are unique in two ways. First, they use decentralized databases like Ethereum and Tron to run their platforms. Secondly, and more important for the purposes of this article, they grant access to almost anyone, no questions...
Seeking Wisdom
Case for indexing
Warren Buffet made a compelling case in favor of indexing in the 2021 Berkshire Hathaway’s AGM. In...
5th Feb 2023
Warren Buffet made a compelling case in favor of indexing in the 2021 Berkshire Hathaway’s AGM. In 1989, 65% of the top 20 global companies were domiciled in Japan. After three decades, 65% of the top 20 global companies are from the US. No companies from Japan made into the top...
balajis.com
Bond Villain
When Powell devalued bonds, he destroyed the economy.
4th Jul 2023
When Powell devalued bonds, he destroyed the economy.
Musings on Markets
The Situational Awareness Blow-up: The Collateral Damage from Investing Conviction!
Earlier this year, I was asked what I thought about Leopold Aschenbrenner and I admitted that I knew...
11th Aug 2026
Earlier this year, I was asked what I thought about Leopold Aschenbrenner and I admitted that I knew little about him other than what I had read about him, more in social media, than in the press - that he was a 25-year-old wunderkind who had started at OpenAI but had left to...
Bits about Money
Fraud Investigation is Believing Your Lying Eyes
The financial industry has paid tens of billions of dollars in tuition on fraud detection. Here are...
6th Feb 2026
The financial industry has paid tens of billions of dollars in tuition on fraud detection. Here are some observations for investigators with badges, press cards, or GoPros.
The Rational Walk
A Quarter Century of Investing
Lessons learned from twenty-five years of enterprising investing
6th Jan 2025
Lessons learned from twenty-five years of enterprising investing
Commoncog
How to Run Smart Experiments When You Just Don’t Know
How all good entrepreneurs run experiments at the earliest stages of a business, and how you can use...
20th Aug 2025
How all good entrepreneurs run experiments at the earliest stages of a business, and how you can use this approach for your own career.
Mazdak
AI Agents vs. SaaS: Is This the Beginning of a Structural Reset or Another Tech Overreaction?
Public software companies just had one of their worst weeks in years—and the market reaction was...
9th Feb 2026
Public software companies just had one of their worst weeks in years—and the market reaction was swift, brutal, and emotional.
Moneyness
Stablecoins – a digital version of Swiss bearer savings books
Before anti-money laundering laws arrived in Switzerland, anyone could walk into a Swiss bank and...
9th Aug 2024
Before anti-money laundering laws arrived in Switzerland, anyone could walk into a Swiss bank and open an account without showing any ID. The bank would then issue you something called a bearer savings book, otherwise known as inhabersparheften or livrets d'épargne au porteur....
Molson Hart's Blog -...
America Underestimates the Difficulty of Bringing Manufacturing Back
On April 2nd, 2025, our president announced major new taxes on imports from foreign countries...
6th Apr 2025
On April 2nd, 2025, our president announced major new taxes on imports from foreign countries (“tariffs”), ranging from 10% to 49%. The stated goal is to bring manufacturing back to the United States and to “make America wealthy again”.
These tariffs will not work. In fact, they...
Mazdak
More Creators Can Now Make Money on YouTube
YouTube Lowers Monetization Requirements for Creators. New Twitter CEO Linda Yaccarino Sets Out...
13th Jun 2023
YouTube Lowers Monetization Requirements for Creators. New Twitter CEO Linda Yaccarino Sets Out Vision for the Platform. YouTube Makes It Easier for Small Creators to Earn Money YouTube is lowering the eligibility requirements for creators to make money from their channels....
Moneyness
"I didn't launder the cash, your honor. The robot did."
Crypto enthusiasts protest the trial of Alexey Pertsev
As the multiple Tornado Cash legal cases...
11th Jun 2024
Crypto enthusiasts protest the trial of Alexey Pertsev
As the multiple Tornado Cash legal cases wend their way through courts in the Netherlands and the U.S., we continue to learn how society's money laundering laws will be applied to some of the more unique financial...
FIRE v London
Nov ’24: 3x
London life I’ve been keeping busy as winter in London sets in. The Christmas lights are all out and...
7th Dec 2024
London life I’ve been keeping busy as winter in London sets in. The Christmas lights are all out and looking resplendent, and both the West End and the City are feeling pretty buzzy. For all the general ‘UK stuck in the weeds’ economic commentary, we feel a long way from any talk...
Mazdak
OpenAI Launches GPT‑4.1: What You Need to Know About the New Family of AI Models
OpenAI has officially released the GPT‑4.1 family — and it’s more than just a minor upgrade.
14th Apr 2025
OpenAI has officially released the GPT‑4.1 family — and it’s more than just a minor upgrade.
Molson Hart's Blog -...
Chinese Labor Isn't Just Cheaper; It’s Better. We Need to Fix That.
A famous newspaper asked me to write an opinion article.
But every time I submitted a draft, they'd...
25th Dec 2025
A famous newspaper asked me to write an opinion article.
But every time I submitted a draft, they'd edit it, changing the message of the piece, even though the article was meant to be my opinion.
Most people would have consented to the edits to have the honor of being in the...
Commoncog
Danny Meyer’s Business Expertise
Let's break down Danny Meyer's business expertise as an exercise in biography reading.
7th Aug 2024
Let's break down Danny Meyer's business expertise as an exercise in biography reading.
FIRE v London
May 2025: market springtime
I’ve had quite a busy May. It’s been a lovely month, featuring a wedding in the country, a trip to...
8th Jun 2025
I’ve had quite a busy May. It’s been a lovely month, featuring a wedding in the country, a trip to the Isle of Wight, my first visit to a dairy farm in 40+ years, a lovely trip to the Cotswolds, and more. If you can identify any of the locations above feel free to shout… Continue...
The Rational Walk
Greg Abel’s 2026 Letter to Shareholders
Greg Abel's first letter to Berkshire Hathaway shareholders emphasized the need to keep the...
2nd Mar 2026
Greg Abel's first letter to Berkshire Hathaway shareholders emphasized the need to keep the company's unique culture.
Farnam Street
Lessons on Leadership: Michael Abrashoff on Turning the Worst Ship in the Navy into the Best
Michael Abrashoff was in his mid-thirties when he took command of the USS Benfold, a guided missile...
23rd Oct 2022
Michael Abrashoff was in his mid-thirties when he took command of the USS Benfold, a guided missile destroyer and one of the worst-performing ships in the navy. Despite her potency, the “dysfunctional ship had a sullen crew that resented being there and could not wait to get out...
Seeking Wisdom
Hello LLMs!
When you are having trouble getting your thinking straight, consider an extreme or simple case. This...
4th Oct 2023
When you are having trouble getting your thinking straight, consider an extreme or simple case. This will often give you the insight needed to move forward. I nodded in agreement when I read the above lines from the book Maxims for Thinking Analytically. ChatGPT took the world by...
Mazdak
Markets are calmer. The bigger questions aren't.
A quick run through the stories that actually matter today — rates, trade, cancer research, robots,...
20th Aug 2026
A quick run through the stories that actually matter today — rates, trade, cancer research, robots, and a few things that could affect how business gets done.
balajis.com
The Network State Book
A new book on starting new countries. Available on Kindle and for free at thenetworkstate.com.
19th Mar 2022
A new book on starting new countries. Available on Kindle and for free at thenetworkstate.com.
Mazdak
OpenAI is not becoming a for-profit company after all.
In a significant reversal, OpenAI announced on May 5, 2025, that it will remain under the control of...
5th May 2025
In a significant reversal, OpenAI announced on May 5, 2025, that it will remain under the control of its nonprofit entity, abandoning earlier plans to restructure as a for-profit company.
Citation Needed
Sam Bankman-Fried: guilty on all charges
Jurors spent less than five hours deliberating before returning the verdict.
3rd Nov 2023
Jurors spent less than five hours deliberating before returning the verdict.
balajis.com
Why did Stu Woo of the Wall Street Journal Follow Me to Singapore?
Thirty five million people change countries every year. I'm one of them, and so is Stu Woo.
28th Jul 2026
Thirty five million people change countries every year. I'm one of them, and so is Stu Woo.
Citation Needed
Issue 78 – President on brink of bailout for bitcoin
Trump tries to breathe life back into the crypto markets’ “Trump pump” while federal regulatory...
3rd Mar 2025
Trump tries to breathe life back into the crypto markets’ “Trump pump” while federal regulatory agencies wash their hands of any crypto industry oversight
oftwominds-Charles...
Risk and AI: It's Tricky
The possibility that AI will end up unleashing waves of 'Anti-Progress'--malicious uses,...
1st Jul 2026
The possibility that AI will end up unleashing waves of 'Anti-Progress'--malicious uses, untrustworthy output and uncontrollable floods of slop--also doesn't occur to those confined in the current belief construct.
A funny thing happens on the way to understanding risk: we...
Commoncog
Letter to a Young Person Worrying About AI
It is a common misperception that you must be able to predict the future to do well. But it’s...
20th Oct 2025
It is a common misperception that you must be able to predict the future to do well. But it’s possible to act without prediction, even in the face of AI. This is how.
Citation Needed
Issue 90 – Crime szn bro
The Trump administration cracks down on software to limit surveillance of crypto transactions, while...
13th Aug 2025
The Trump administration cracks down on software to limit surveillance of crypto transactions, while celebrating a “deregulatory blitz” tailored for its billionaire benefactors
Seeking Wisdom
Stay the course
I spend a couple of weeks every February keeping up with my investments, timing it to coincide with...
5th Mar 2024
I spend a couple of weeks every February keeping up with my investments, timing it to coincide with the release of Buffett’s annual letter to shareholders. I found something interesting while performing this ritual this time. I came across Aswath Damodaran’s website, where he has...
oftwominds-Charles...
If We Set Aside Ideology, Is There Anything We Can Agree On?
Just the experiment of setting aside ideological certainties for a moment would be instructive. ...
3rd Mar 2025
Just the experiment of setting aside ideological certainties for a moment would be instructive.
Humans are hard-wired to prefer simplicity over complexity, and this is the foundation of ideology, which like mythology takes a complex world and radically simplifies it to an...
Molson Hart's Blog -...
Being an Amazon Seller in 2020; Year in Review
I’m the founder and CEO of Viahart, an educational toy company. We did about $7.4 million in sales...
3rd Jan 2021
I’m the founder and CEO of Viahart, an educational toy company. We did about $7.4 million in sales in 2020, mostly through e-commerce channels like Amazon and Walmart.com. This article is going to tell you what that was like and how things were different in 2020 than in 2019.
To...
Bits about Money
Deposit franchises as natural hedges
Many observe that banks seem to be blowing up due to predictable consequences of rising interest...
5th May 2023
Many observe that banks seem to be blowing up due to predictable consequences of rising interest rates. How did we get here?
The Diff
What do LLMs Want?
Plus! Governance; Implementation Risk; Jailbreaking; In-Kind Deals; Revalued Inputs
1st Dec 2025
Plus! Governance; Implementation Risk; Jailbreaking; In-Kind Deals; Revalued Inputs
The Diff
In the Future, Every AI Lab is a Neocloud for Fifteen Minutes
Plus! FDE Crunch; Fable!; Egg Futures?; Becoming IBM; Surtaxes
2nd Jul 2026
Plus! FDE Crunch; Fable!; Egg Futures?; Becoming IBM; Surtaxes
FIRE v London
April 2025 – balmy weather, barmy markets
Better late than never, I’m doing a quick update on April. More for the record than because anything...
24th May 2025
Better late than never, I’m doing a quick update on April. More for the record than because anything particularly notable happened in the portfolio, ignoring the mid month gyrations. It was a lovely month, April. I did a bit of travelling, but the UK had generally lovely spring...
Mazdak
Bank of Canada Holds Rates Steady, Inflation Progress Seen as Insufficient
The Bank of Canada (BoC) opted to maintain its key interest rate at 5% today, signaling a cautious...
6th Mar 2024
The Bank of Canada (BoC) opted to maintain its key interest rate at 5% today, signaling a cautious stance on inflation despite recent declines. Governor Tiff Macklem acknowledged progress in bringing inflation down to 2.9% in January, but emphasized the need for continued...
Commoncog
What’s an Operational Definition Anyway?
Two principles on collecting data, from the field of Statistical Process Control. As with most...
3rd Oct 2023
Two principles on collecting data, from the field of Statistical Process Control. As with most principles in SPC, this is both simpler and more important than you might think.
Commoncog
Business Reality Without Frameworks
A paradox: why it’s important to think about business without abstractions, even as we from what’s...
21st Oct 2024
A paradox: why it’s important to think about business without abstractions, even as we from what’s come before.
The Rational Walk
Warren Buffett’s Final Brushstrokes
Warren Buffett is retiring as CEO of Berkshire Hathaway but he may still make a few final...
5th May 2025
Warren Buffett is retiring as CEO of Berkshire Hathaway but he may still make a few final brushstrokes on his canvas as Chairman.
Citation Needed
Issue 63 – RobConf 2024
Coinbase responds to campaign finance violation allegations, Trump panders to bitcoiners, and I chat...
7th Aug 2024
Coinbase responds to campaign finance violation allegations, Trump panders to bitcoiners, and I chat with Lyn Alden about sexism in bitcoin.
Commoncog
Goodhart's Law Isn't as Useful as You Might Think
Goodhart's Law is useless. It tells you about a phenomenon, but it doesn't tell you how to solve it....
11th Jan 2023
Goodhart's Law is useless. It tells you about a phenomenon, but it doesn't tell you how to solve it. We look at how organisations actually prevent Goodhart's Law, and illustrate this with Amazon's Weekly Business Review as an example.
The Rational Walk
What I’ve Been Reading
Thoughts on the books I read in the second quarter of 2025
11th Jul 2025
Thoughts on the books I read in the second quarter of 2025
FIRE v London
June ’24: Election fever
June was busy. I travelled more than usual in June. Partly in the UK – visiting Glasgow, the west...
9th Jul 2024
June was busy. I travelled more than usual in June. Partly in the UK – visiting Glasgow, the west country, the south coast and the Isle of Wight; partly overseas – I visited Ibiza for a few days of R&R. Meanwhile, the election campaigns were in full swing. Nigel Farage did his...
Musings on Markets
Country Risk: My 2024 Data Update
After the 2008 market crisis, I resolved that I would be far more organized in my assessments and...
24th Jul 2024
After the 2008 market crisis, I resolved that I would be far more organized in my assessments and updating of equity risk premiums, in the United States and abroad, as I looked at the damage that can be inflicted on intrinsic value by significant shifts in risk premiums, i.e., my...
Seeking Wisdom
Embeddings – Part 2
This is the 9th post in my series on building a toy GPT. For better understanding, I recommend...
3rd Dec 2023
This is the 9th post in my series on building a toy GPT. For better understanding, I recommend reading my earlier posts first. Word embeddings convert words into fixed-length numerical arrays. Each number in these arrays corresponds to a specific characteristic of the word, such...
balajis.com
The Network School
We’re starting a new school near Singapore for the dark talent of the world. Apply online at...
16th Aug 2024
We’re starting a new school near Singapore for the dark talent of the world. Apply online at ns.com/apply.
Commoncog
Setting Up For The Second Half of 2024
A new set of cases for two concept sequences, and the end of the Data Driven Series.
19th May 2024
A new set of cases for two concept sequences, and the end of the Data Driven Series.
The Diff
We Still Have No Idea Whether Passive Investing is a Meaningful Risk
Plus! Complements and Strategy; Privacy, Competition, and Scale; Platforms and Ownership; KYC;...
26th Nov 2024
Plus! Complements and Strategy; Privacy, Competition, and Scale; Platforms and Ownership; KYC; Tariff Man
balajis.com
All It Takes Is All You Got
Your assets are the government's collateral.
29th Mar 2024
Your assets are the government's collateral.
The Rational Walk
Minimal Impact to Insurers from Icelandic Volcano Eruption
At least for now, most air travel restrictions caused by the eruption of the Eyjafjallajökull...
11th Aug 2026
At least for now, most air travel restrictions caused by the eruption of the Eyjafjallajökull volcano have been lifted throughout Europe.
Mazdak
Canada's Housing Crisis: Is There a Way Out?
Canada's housing market has become a national concern. Soaring prices have pushed homeownership out...
2nd Apr 2024
Canada's housing market has become a national concern. Soaring prices have pushed homeownership out of reach for many, and even renters struggle to find affordable options. The pandemic exacerbated this pre-existing crisis, highlighting the urgent need for solutions. This article...
balajis.com
California Is Not A Democracy
It's a one-party state. They hold elections, but the Party always wins.
10th Jun 2024
It's a one-party state. They hold elections, but the Party always wins.
Commoncog
The Two Types of Data Analysis
Broadly speaking, there are two approaches to data analysis in business. The two approaches have...
3rd Nov 2023
Broadly speaking, there are two approaches to data analysis in business. The two approaches have different worldviews, and express different tradeoffs. Here's why that matters.
Farnam Street
Tobi Lütke: AI Agents, Better Decisions, and the Future of Work
Shopify founder and CEO Tobi Lütke joins Shane Parrish to discuss AI agents, better decision-making,...
a week ago
Shopify founder and CEO Tobi Lütke joins Shane Parrish to discuss AI agents, better decision-making, and the future of work. He explains how he uses an AI council to examine his hardest decisions and why taste, judgment, and responsibility become more valuable as AI becomes more...
balajis.com
The Fiat Crisis
This is not a financial crisis. It’s a fiat crisis.
2nd May 2023
This is not a financial crisis. It’s a fiat crisis.
Commoncog
1st Sept 2026: An Increase in Membership Prices
Commoncog is increasing membership prices on 1st September 2026. If you’d like to lock in the old...
11th Aug 2026
Commoncog is increasing membership prices on 1st September 2026. If you’d like to lock in the old prices, you should probably sign up before then.
Bits about Money
The business of check cashing
Check cashing, as a business, is a poorly understood "alternative" financial service.
30th Jan 2024
Check cashing, as a business, is a poorly understood "alternative" financial service.
Farnam Street
The Winner’s Edge
A lot of otherwise talented people are too pessimistic to actually do anything. They are paralyzed...
19th Apr 2023
A lot of otherwise talented people are too pessimistic to actually do anything. They are paralyzed by risks that don’t exist and greatly exaggerate them where they do, preventing them from being one of the best. Consider this lightly edited excerpt from a conversation between...
Commoncog
How to Become Data Driven
The answer, like most things from Statistical Process Control, is more surprising and more obvious...
6th Feb 2023
The answer, like most things from Statistical Process Control, is more surprising and more obvious than you might think.
Commoncog
One Definition of Wisdom
Charlie Munger’s biggest business mistake, and what it tells us about wisdom.
14th Feb 2024
Charlie Munger’s biggest business mistake, and what it tells us about wisdom.
The Diff
When Labor is Scarce, Equity is the Mezzanine Tranche
Plus! What Goes Up; Refinancing; Investor Relations; Scaling; Infrastructure
2nd Apr 2026
Plus! What Goes Up; Refinancing; Investor Relations; Scaling; Infrastructure
Musings on Markets
The Seven Samurai: How Big Tech Rescued the Market in 2023!
I was planning to finish my last two data updates for 2024, but decided to take a break and look at...
9th Feb 2024
I was planning to finish my last two data updates for 2024, but decided to take a break and look at the seven stocks (Apple, Amazon, Alphabet, Meta, Microsoft, Nvidia and Tesla) which carried the market in 2023. While I will use the "Magnificent Seven" moniker attached by these...
FIRE v London
Sep ’24: Ominous politics, juicy economics
September was fairly action-packed. I enjoyed getting out on a friend’s boat around Poole and the...
13th Oct 2024
September was fairly action-packed. I enjoyed getting out on a friend’s boat around Poole and the Solent. I made it to the Labour party conference in Liverpool, which was fascinating albeit wet. I am apparently firmly in the tax-raising sights of the Government, but I wasn’t the...
Bits about Money
Open Banking and payments competition
Why the banks really hate fintechs that allow businesses to learn your account number easily.
13th Aug 2025
Why the banks really hate fintechs that allow businesses to learn your account number easily.
Commoncog
The Amazon Weekly Business Review
Everything you need to know about the Amazon Weekly Business Review: how it works, why it works, and...
2nd Jul 2024
Everything you need to know about the Amazon Weekly Business Review: how it works, why it works, and how it helps Amazon win.
Commoncog
Operational Excellence is the Pursuit of ‘Knowledge’
It turns out that operational excellence results from the pursuit of a certain form of knowledge....
16th Mar 2023
It turns out that operational excellence results from the pursuit of a certain form of knowledge. This is Part 3 of the Becoming Data Driven series, and the result of a deep dive into the field of statistical process control.
Molson Hart's Blog -...
Is the wholesale marketplace Faire right for your e-commerce business or brand?
My company has sold $2.6 million on Faire over the past 4.5 years.
As selling on Amazon has become...
6th Feb 2026
My company has sold $2.6 million on Faire over the past 4.5 years.
As selling on Amazon has become tougher and tougher, we are thankful for the growing sales Faire has brought us.
That said, it's a difficult, counterintuitive marketplace to operate on, and one that is getting,...
Bits about Money
The business of wallets
How digital wallets work, and how payment costs drive a lot of product decisions inside and around...
30th Apr 2024
How digital wallets work, and how payment costs drive a lot of product decisions inside and around them.
Seeking Wisdom
Few thoughts on life, psychology, and mindset
I’ve been writing my thoughts on life, psychology, and mindset for some time. I’ve considered...
2nd Sep 2023
I’ve been writing my thoughts on life, psychology, and mindset for some time. I’ve considered transferring some of these writings from Notion into this post. In physics, three laws can explain 99% of observations. However, in life, psychology, and mindset, 99 laws can barely...
Commoncog
Focus Is Saying No To Good Ideas
Several stories about one of the hardest maxims to put to practice in business.
18th Oct 2022
Several stories about one of the hardest maxims to put to practice in business.
Musings on Markets
Anatomy of a Market Crisis: Tariffs, Markets and the Economy!
I was boarding a plane for a trip to Latin America late in the evening last Wednesday (April 2), and...
7th Apr 2025
I was boarding a plane for a trip to Latin America late in the evening last Wednesday (April 2), and as is my practice, I was checking the score on the Yankee game, when I read the tariff news announcement. Coming after a few days where the market seemed to have found its...
Commoncog
How to Handle Disruptive Change
As a business, how do you deal with disruption — technological or otherwise? Some patterns from a...
3 days ago
As a business, how do you deal with disruption — technological or otherwise? Some patterns from a collection of case studies.
The Diff
In Credit Underwriting, Better is Worse
Plus! IRR; Structure; Financial Epiphytes; Shale; Weakening the Cartel
2nd Jan 2025
Plus! IRR; Structure; Financial Epiphytes; Shale; Weakening the Cartel
Musings on Markets
Data Update 5 for 2025: It's a small world, after all!
If the title of this post sounds familiar, it is because is one of Disney’s most iconic rides, one...
6th Feb 2025
If the title of this post sounds familiar, it is because is one of Disney’s most iconic rides, one that I have taken hundreds of times, first with my own children and more recently, with my grandchildren. It is a mainstay of every Disney theme park, from the original Disneyland...
Commoncog
Under The Hood
How do you shape employee culture? How do you win employee commitment? Under The Hood has a coherent...
12th Nov 2024
How do you shape employee culture? How do you win employee commitment? Under The Hood has a coherent model for building this skill.
Musings on Markets
Data Update 4 for 2024: Danger and Opportunity - Bringing Risk into the Equation!
In my last data updates for this year, I looked first at how equity markets rebounded in 2023,...
28th Jan 2024
In my last data updates for this year, I looked first at how equity markets rebounded in 2023, driven by a stronger-than-expected economy and inflation coming down, and then at how interest rates mirrored this rebound. In this post, I look at risk, a central theme in finance and...
balajis.com
Too Fake to Tell
US government stats aren't reliable. More importantly, neither are US government bonds.
5th Jun 2023
US government stats aren't reliable. More importantly, neither are US government bonds.
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