oftwominds-Charles...
Begging Bowl '25: I'm Looking for Two Readers Willing to Help Me Buy a New Thrift-Store Shirt
The goal is to move incrementally toward a kind of happiness that actually makes us happy. That's...
2nd Feb 2025
The goal is to move incrementally toward a kind of happiness that actually makes us happy. That's the goal of my work.
I admire unvarnished honesty, which is scarce. And like everything else that's increasingly scarce, it behooves us to hoard our stash. In the unvarnished...
Citation Needed
Issue 69 – Nice
Coinbase threatens me that continuing to report on their activities would be “.... unwise”. Also,...
2nd Nov 2024
Coinbase threatens me that continuing to report on their activities would be “.... unwise”. Also, election spending hits a fever pitch, with several new crypto PACs coming out of the woodwork.
Citation Needed
Issue 50 – Bitcoin busts
Governments seize huge quantities of bitcoin, and a few people seem to be yearning for the days of...
2nd Feb 2024
Governments seize huge quantities of bitcoin, and a few people seem to be yearning for the days of peak crypto mania.
Seeking Wisdom
The Edge
Thinking with Machines was such a joyful read that I finished it in a single sitting during a...
8th Feb 2026
Thinking with Machines was such a joyful read that I finished it in a single sitting during a seven-hour flight. Do read it if you want to understand how AI will change the way we live and work. Vasant has lived through every major shift in AI, from expert systems to today’s push...
balajis.com
Popups are the new startups
Now you can materialize your cloud community into the real world.
12th Oct 2025
Now you can materialize your cloud community into the real world.
Commoncog
The Heart of Innovation: Why Most Startups Fail
A theory of demand (and product market fit) that explains it all, and does NOT require ‘pain’ to do...
12th May 2025
A theory of demand (and product market fit) that explains it all, and does NOT require ‘pain’ to do it.
Citation Needed
Issue 61 – Soft war by the enemy
How will recent Supreme Court decisions affect the crypto world? Also, more absurdity from the...
5th Jul 2024
How will recent Supreme Court decisions affect the crypto world? Also, more absurdity from the crypto lobby, and some new regulatory actions.
Molson Hart's Blog -...
What Do Brontosauruses Know about Uncoordinated Conspiracies?
Brontosaurus skeleton at the Yale Peabody Museum of Natural History (allegedly)
Let’s pretend for a...
2nd Sep 2024
Brontosaurus skeleton at the Yale Peabody Museum of Natural History (allegedly)
Let’s pretend for a moment that brontosauruses are made up, despite them being accepted by the public and scientific community, having ample evidence for their existence, and appearing in museums all...
balajis.com
Network School 2025
Network School reopens March 1 with double the capacity. Apply now at ns.com.
2nd Feb 2025
Network School reopens March 1 with double the capacity. Apply now at ns.com.
Citation Needed
Issue 90 – Crime szn bro
The Trump administration cracks down on software to limit surveillance of crypto transactions, while...
13th Aug 2025
The Trump administration cracks down on software to limit surveillance of crypto transactions, while celebrating a “deregulatory blitz” tailored for its billionaire benefactors
Commoncog
The 2023 Commoncog Recap
Everything that we covered in 2023, and what to expect now that Commoncog has a new direction.
4th Jan 2024
Everything that we covered in 2023, and what to expect now that Commoncog has a new direction.
Farnam Street
Evaluating Information: Find the Signal in the Noise
We are drowning in information. Most of that information is irrelevant. If only we could sort what...
3rd Aug 2022
We are drowning in information. Most of that information is irrelevant. If only we could sort what matters from what doesn’t. The good news is that you can train your brain to evaluate the quality of information. Not only can you quickly determine if someone knows what they are...
Commoncog
The Capital Cycle
What a famous investing framework — part of the modern canon of value investing — tells us about the...
20th Sep 2023
What a famous investing framework — part of the modern canon of value investing — tells us about the expertise of capital in business.
Commoncog
You Aren't Learning If You Don't Close the Loops
Every experimentation and iteration loop looks the same, but the vast majority of folk in business...
2nd Nov 2022
Every experimentation and iteration loop looks the same, but the vast majority of folk in business don't seem to have the discipline to execute till the end. Why this is, and why it's hard.
The Diff
Routers, Apps, AGI
Plus! Diff Jobs; Peripheral Bets; Fragmentation and Industry Maturity; Deepfakes as Pull Quotes;...
20th Oct 2025
Plus! Diff Jobs; Peripheral Bets; Fragmentation and Industry Maturity; Deepfakes as Pull Quotes; Benchmarks; Platforms
Commoncog
The 2024 Commoncog Recap
Everything that we covered in 2024, and what to expect in the coming year.
8th Jan 2025
Everything that we covered in 2024, and what to expect in the coming year.
The Diff
When Labor is Scarce, Equity is the Mezzanine Tranche
Plus! What Goes Up; Refinancing; Investor Relations; Scaling; Infrastructure
2nd Apr 2026
Plus! What Goes Up; Refinancing; Investor Relations; Scaling; Infrastructure
Mazdak
Google’s New AI Summaries in Discover: The Next Blow to Publishers?
If you work in media or publishing, brace yourself — another platform update from Google is quietly...
15th Jul 2025
If you work in media or publishing, brace yourself — another platform update from Google is quietly shifting the ground beneath us.
Musings on Markets
Data Update 9 for 2025: Dividends and Buybacks - Inertia and Me-tooism!
In my ninth (and last) data post for 2025, I look at cash returned by businesses across the world,...
5th Mar 2025
In my ninth (and last) data post for 2025, I look at cash returned by businesses across the world, looking at both the magnitude and the form of that return. I start with a framework for thinking about how much cash a business can return to its owners, and then argue that, in the...
Bits about Money
Banking in very uncertain times
We may be in the early stages of a banking crisis: why, what we're doing to avoid it, and what we...
14th Mar 2023
We may be in the early stages of a banking crisis: why, what we're doing to avoid it, and what we may not get about it.
Moneyness
"I didn't launder the cash, your honor. The robot did."
Crypto enthusiasts protest the trial of Alexey Pertsev
As the multiple Tornado Cash legal cases...
11th Jun 2024
Crypto enthusiasts protest the trial of Alexey Pertsev
As the multiple Tornado Cash legal cases wend their way through courts in the Netherlands and the U.S., we continue to learn how society's money laundering laws will be applied to some of the more unique financial...
Musings on Markets
Oil, War and the Global Economy: The Market's Narrative in March 2026
Markets play an expectations game, and in March 2026, we saw the process play out, with all of its...
1st Apr 2026
Markets play an expectations game, and in March 2026, we saw the process play out, with all of its upsides and downsides. The month started with a war in the Middle East, which quickly percolated into soaring oil prices and dropping stock prices, but the overwhelming factor was...
Citation Needed
Issue 54 – Cases continue
Crypto-related litigation is in full swing, as the Terra civil fraud trial has kicked off and two...
2nd Apr 2024
Crypto-related litigation is in full swing, as the Terra civil fraud trial has kicked off and two other cases against crypto companies have survived motions to dismiss.
Mazdak
Meta's Fake AI Profiles, the TikTok Ban, Telegram Updates, and Microsoft's $80 Billion AI Investment...
Meta's AI Experiment: What Went Wrong?
4th Jan 2025
Meta's AI Experiment: What Went Wrong?
Seeking Wisdom
It’s a treasure trove of health insights!
Use Insulin wisely Life on Earth started simple. For nearly 2 billion years, tiny single-celled...
21st Oct 2024
Use Insulin wisely Life on Earth started simple. For nearly 2 billion years, tiny single-celled organisms dominated. Then, a lucky accident changed everything. One cell swallowed another, and the swallowed cell became mitochondria, the powerhouse of complex cells. This chance...
Bits about Money
Money laundering and AML compliance
A brief overview of what money laundering is, what financial institutions do about it, and why.
10th Feb 2023
A brief overview of what money laundering is, what financial institutions do about it, and why.
Moneyness
How should money laundering laws apply to DeFi?
Everyone agrees that money laundering laws apply to DeFi. The question is: how to apply them?
DeFi,...
14th Sep 2024
Everyone agrees that money laundering laws apply to DeFi. The question is: how to apply them?
DeFi, or decentralized finance, is an emerging segment of the broader financial industry that delivers traditional financial services, say like trading or lending, using a novel type of...
balajis.com
Decentralizing Education with Synthesis
I'm co-leading a round in Synthesis, a startup scaling the custom school built for Elon Musk’s kids.
21st Apr 2022
I'm co-leading a round in Synthesis, a startup scaling the custom school built for Elon Musk’s kids.
Molson Hart's Blog -...
It’s Time to Build… Assets?
One of the main reasons for the decline in goods and services in the United States, and to a lesser...
28th Mar 2026
One of the main reasons for the decline in goods and services in the United States, and to a lesser extent, the world, is the financialization of our economies by excessive money printing.
Let's break that down into simpler language.
The quality of the things and services you buy...
balajis.com
The Network School Fellowship
Anyone from anywhere can apply for $100k in funding at ns.com.
18th Apr 2025
Anyone from anywhere can apply for $100k in funding at ns.com.
Commoncog
There Is No Truth in Business, Only Knowledge
'Knowledge' here is defined as 'theories or models that help you predict better'. How an idea from...
4th Apr 2023
'Knowledge' here is defined as 'theories or models that help you predict better'. How an idea from W. Edwards Deming may well be a working philosophy of business.
Commoncog
The Two Types of Data Analysis
Broadly speaking, there are two approaches to data analysis in business. The two approaches have...
3rd Nov 2023
Broadly speaking, there are two approaches to data analysis in business. The two approaches have different worldviews, and express different tradeoffs. Here's why that matters.
FIRE v London
Sep 23: Antisocial markets
For some reason shoplifting is in the news. There’s evidently an epidemic of it. Not just in the UK,...
8th Oct 2023
For some reason shoplifting is in the news. There’s evidently an epidemic of it. Not just in the UK, but wider afield too – hence major brands pulling out of cities like San Francisco. From what I hear there is a general increase in antisocial behaviour, dating from the covid-19...
Bits about Money
A window into modern loan origination
A four party consortium can underwrite, fund, and execute a consumer loan in 15 minutes. Here's how.
10th Oct 2025
A four party consortium can underwrite, fund, and execute a consumer loan in 15 minutes. Here's how.
Commoncog
Operational Excellence is the Pursuit of ‘Knowledge’
It turns out that operational excellence results from the pursuit of a certain form of knowledge....
16th Mar 2023
It turns out that operational excellence results from the pursuit of a certain form of knowledge. This is Part 3 of the Becoming Data Driven series, and the result of a deep dive into the field of statistical process control.
Musings on Markets
Sovereign Ratings, Default Risk and Markets: The Moody's Downgrade Aftermath!
I was on a family vacation in August 2011 when I received an email from a journalist asking me what...
2nd Jun 2025
I was on a family vacation in August 2011 when I received an email from a journalist asking me what I thought about the S&P ratings downgrade for the US. Since I stay blissfully unaware of most news stories and things related to markets when I am on the beach, I had to look up...
The Diff
We Still Have No Idea Whether Passive Investing is a Meaningful Risk
Plus! Complements and Strategy; Privacy, Competition, and Scale; Platforms and Ownership; KYC;...
26th Nov 2024
Plus! Complements and Strategy; Privacy, Competition, and Scale; Platforms and Ownership; KYC; Tariff Man
oftwominds-Charles...
The Irresistible Temptations of Centralized Power
The only "reform" that changes our lives in a fundamentally positive way is radical decentralization...
2 weeks ago
The only "reform" that changes our lives in a fundamentally positive way is radical decentralization via distributing centralized power.
Presidents like to deal with the CEOs of corporate monopolies for self-evident reasons: Rather than engage in the tedious, contentious...
Molson Hart's Blog -...
Being an Amazon Seller in 2020; Year in Review
I’m the founder and CEO of Viahart, an educational toy company. We did about $7.4 million in sales...
3rd Jan 2021
I’m the founder and CEO of Viahart, an educational toy company. We did about $7.4 million in sales in 2020, mostly through e-commerce channels like Amazon and Walmart.com. This article is going to tell you what that was like and how things were different in 2020 than in 2019.
To...
Seeking Wisdom
Modeling Life: Linear Algebra
This is the 4th post in my series summarizing the key takeaways from reading the book Modeling Life....
2nd May 2024
This is the 4th post in my series summarizing the key takeaways from reading the book Modeling Life. I recommend reading my previous posts first to gain a solid understanding on how to model dynamic systems. This post focuses on how linear algebra is employed in modeling dynamic...
balajis.com
Why did Stu Woo of the Wall Street Journal Follow Me to Singapore?
Thirty five million people change countries every year. I'm one of them, and so is Stu Woo.
28th Jul 2026
Thirty five million people change countries every year. I'm one of them, and so is Stu Woo.
Commoncog
The Joy of Small Markets
If you want to get rich, the irony is that small markets are often better than large ones.
2nd Sep 2025
If you want to get rich, the irony is that small markets are often better than large ones.
Calculated Risk
Economic Tailwinds and Headwinds
After the election in November 2016, I pointed out that the economy was solid, that there were...
1st Apr 2025
After the election in November 2016, I pointed out that the economy was solid, that there were significant economic tailwinds and that it was unlikely that Mr. Trump would do everything he said during the campaign. See: The Future is still Bright! and The Cupboard is Full.
I...
balajis.com
The Fiat Crisis
This is not a financial crisis. It’s a fiat crisis.
2nd May 2023
This is not a financial crisis. It’s a fiat crisis.
Mazdak
Apple has a new CEO. Now comes the hard part.
September is here, and there’s actually quite a bit going on.
2 weeks ago
September is here, and there’s actually quite a bit going on.
Commoncog
Putting Amazon’s PR/FAQ to Practice
What it's like putting Amazon's famed Working Backwards process to practice in a small company...
8th Sep 2022
What it's like putting Amazon's famed Working Backwards process to practice in a small company context, and what was surprising and difficult about it.
Commoncog
Using the Quartz Crisis to Make Sense of Technological Disruption
Also: the quartz crisis isn’t really about quartz at all. A sensemaking exercise for those who want...
3rd Jul 2026
Also: the quartz crisis isn’t really about quartz at all. A sensemaking exercise for those who want to get better at making sense of possible AI disruption.
Citation Needed
Trump to launch branded crypto trading application
New crypto trading and wallet application, created in partnership with Magic Eden, invites fans of...
3rd Jun 2025
New crypto trading and wallet application, created in partnership with Magic Eden, invites fans of President Trump to buy his memecoin
Commoncog
How to Become Data Driven
The answer, like most things from Statistical Process Control, is more surprising and more obvious...
6th Feb 2023
The answer, like most things from Statistical Process Control, is more surprising and more obvious than you might think.
FIRE v London
Oct ’24: Budgets & broad shoulders
I haven’t seen much of London in October. I’ve been away every weekend in October, partly in the UK...
2nd Nov 2024
I haven’t seen much of London in October. I’ve been away every weekend in October, partly in the UK and partly visiting friends overseas. And now we’re in November, the clocks have gone back, but temperatures haven’t plummeted yet. London feels busy – pubs still have crowds...
FIRE v London
June ’23: The hottest ever
June saw UK’s former PM Mr Johnson leave parliament. Good riddance. I suspect we haven’t seen or...
15th Jul 2023
June saw UK’s former PM Mr Johnson leave parliament. Good riddance. I suspect we haven’t seen or (definitely) read the last of him but having him out of Westminster is at least a bit safer than him inside. Closer to (my Coastal Folly) home, there has been a sad story in...
Commoncog
Mental Strength in Judo; Mental Strength in Life
Results of a four month accelerated expertise experiment in Judo. Or: "I expected to learn about...
3rd May 2023
Results of a four month accelerated expertise experiment in Judo. Or: "I expected to learn about deliberate practice but instead learnt a ton about my mental shortcomings."
Commoncog
The Creation of a Skilled Tycoon
What it looks like when an Asian tycoon gets good at the game of business.
8th Dec 2025
What it looks like when an Asian tycoon gets good at the game of business.
FIRE v London
July ’23: Markets up, Coutts down
It’s been a dismally wet July here in London. About 50% more rainfall than normal (which, before ye...
2nd Aug 2023
It’s been a dismally wet July here in London. About 50% more rainfall than normal (which, before ye scoff, isn’t that much – London is a fairly dry city – drier than Rome and much drier than Sydney). It has been long trousers weather, for the first time in several years. But at...
Commoncog
A Few Notes on Moats
Some non-obvious, even surprising things about building competitive moats, including when they might...
11th Feb 2026
Some non-obvious, even surprising things about building competitive moats, including when they might not be necessary.
Musings on Markets
Country Risk: My 2024 Data Update
After the 2008 market crisis, I resolved that I would be far more organized in my assessments and...
24th Jul 2024
After the 2008 market crisis, I resolved that I would be far more organized in my assessments and updating of equity risk premiums, in the United States and abroad, as I looked at the damage that can be inflicted on intrinsic value by significant shifts in risk premiums, i.e., my...
Farnam Street
The Winner’s Edge
A lot of otherwise talented people are too pessimistic to actually do anything. They are paralyzed...
19th Apr 2023
A lot of otherwise talented people are too pessimistic to actually do anything. They are paralyzed by risks that don’t exist and greatly exaggerate them where they do, preventing them from being one of the best. Consider this lightly edited excerpt from a conversation between...
Citation Needed
Issue 65 – World Liberty Fiasco
Even the most pro-Trump crypto faithful think Trump’s new crypto scheme is a terrible idea.
6th Sep 2024
Even the most pro-Trump crypto faithful think Trump’s new crypto scheme is a terrible idea.
Citation Needed
Issue 45 – I'm the director now
Rising bitcoin prices bring echoes of the crypto mania from years past, and an ambitious hacker...
5th Dec 2023
Rising bitcoin prices bring echoes of the crypto mania from years past, and an ambitious hacker decides to manifest a new job for themselves.
Molson Hart's Blog -...
Older Articles I’ve Written
In reverse chronological order:
Starting a Physical Product Company? You’re Gonna Need a Lawyer...
13th Dec 2020
In reverse chronological order:
Starting a Physical Product Company? You’re Gonna Need a Lawyer (October 18, 2020)
The Right to a Nonconsensus Opinion (June 9, 2020)
Never Invest in Anything Made of Metal (May 2, 2020)
Simple 3 Step Strategy to Stop the Coronavirus in the...
Bits about Money
Markets in power
How physics and infrastructure combine to generate (ba dum bum) the power market.
30th Sep 2022
How physics and infrastructure combine to generate (ba dum bum) the power market.
Bits about Money
Financial systems take a holiday
Ever wondered about what happens when banks are closed or why some apps have operating hours? It's...
29th Feb 2024
Ever wondered about what happens when banks are closed or why some apps have operating hours? It's fascinating.
FIRE v London
Mar ’26: Iran clobbers markets
In March the rain stopped. We started March with North London already having seen 2x its usual...
12th Apr 2026
In March the rain stopped. We started March with North London already having seen 2x its usual rainfall for this point in the year. And thankfully in the middle of March, it stopped. As I write this I have actually needed to start watering the garden, something that felt a very...
FIRE v London
Jan ’24: A giant tax bill lands
One of several highlights for me in January was visiting Salisbury cathedral, which I did on an...
10th Feb 2024
One of several highlights for me in January was visiting Salisbury cathedral, which I did on an impulse while travelling back from the Coastal Folly. My main frame of reference to the cathedral being those notorious Russian nerve agent assassins citing it as their reason for...
Commoncog
Focus Is Saying No To Good Ideas
Several stories about one of the hardest maxims to put to practice in business.
18th Oct 2022
Several stories about one of the hardest maxims to put to practice in business.
Mazdak
What Expenses Can You Write Off Against Your Business Income?
Taxes are an inevitable part of running a business, but that doesn't mean you have to pay more than...
6th Feb 2024
Taxes are an inevitable part of running a business, but that doesn't mean you have to pay more than your fair share. Fortunately, the law allows you to deduct certain expenses from your business income, lowering your taxable amount and saving you money. But navigating the world...
balajis.com
Crypto Twitter Found SBF's Fraud
The establishment did nothing until the internet revealed everything.
6th Nov 2023
The establishment did nothing until the internet revealed everything.
The Rational Walk
Buffett Completes Succession Plan
Warren Buffett has completed Berkshire's succession plan as he steps down as Chairman.
19 hours ago
Warren Buffett has completed Berkshire's succession plan as he steps down as Chairman.
Bits about Money
Credit card debt collection
Credit card debt is the waste stream of consumer finance. The debt collection industry ends up being...
11th Aug 2023
Credit card debt is the waste stream of consumer finance. The debt collection industry ends up being sordid, for complex structural and microeconomic reasons.
Bits about Money
Deposit franchises as natural hedges
Many observe that banks seem to be blowing up due to predictable consequences of rising interest...
5th May 2023
Many observe that banks seem to be blowing up due to predictable consequences of rising interest rates. How did we get here?
The Rational Walk
Warren Buffett’s Thanksgiving Letter
Warren Buffett's Thanksgiving Letter sheds more light on why he decided to retire.
11th Nov 2025
Warren Buffett's Thanksgiving Letter sheds more light on why he decided to retire.
Seeking Wisdom
Modeling Life: Foundations
Herman Wouk was researching for a novel he planned to write about World War II. He interviewed...
7th Apr 2024
Herman Wouk was researching for a novel he planned to write about World War II. He interviewed several physicists at Caltech who had worked on the bomb, including Richard Feynman. After the interview, Feynman asked Wouk if he knew Calculus. “No,” said Wouk. To which Feynman...
Commoncog
How to Run Smart Experiments When You Just Don’t Know
How all good entrepreneurs run experiments at the earliest stages of a business, and how you can use...
20th Aug 2025
How all good entrepreneurs run experiments at the earliest stages of a business, and how you can use this approach for your own career.
balajis.com
Bond Villain
When Powell devalued bonds, he destroyed the economy.
4th Jul 2023
When Powell devalued bonds, he destroyed the economy.
Molson Hart's Blog -...
Why We Shouldn’t “Buy the Dip”
“Buying the dip” is buy stocks whenever there is a short-term decline in stock prices, under the...
29th May 2023
“Buying the dip” is buy stocks whenever there is a short-term decline in stock prices, under the assumption that asset prices will quickly revert, enabling you to make money.
This article explains why a government-driven culture of “buying the dip” can be damaging to you and...
FIRE v London
Apr ’26: A record month, house purchase underway
It’s been a beautiful month. I’ve been about a bit, taking in Lincoln, the New Forest, and Oxford as...
4th May 2026
It’s been a beautiful month. I’ve been about a bit, taking in Lincoln, the New Forest, and Oxford as well as enjoying London town itself. The Iran conflict rumbles on, with the USA and Israel having effectively finished the military engagement. Markets have had a very strong...
Commoncog
Lee Walker and the Dell Growth Plateau
How Lee Walker overcame Dell's biggest growth plateau in 1986. A story about capital, imagination,...
16th Aug 2023
How Lee Walker overcame Dell's biggest growth plateau in 1986. A story about capital, imagination, and creative deal-making.
Musings on Markets
Trillion Dollar Market Caps: Fairy Tale Pricing or Business Marvels?
Stock markets have always rewarded winners with large capitalizations, and with each new threshold,...
3rd Dec 2025
Stock markets have always rewarded winners with large capitalizations, and with each new threshold, the questions begin anew of whether animal spirits or fundamentals are driving the numbers. A few weeks ago, Nvidia seemed unstoppable as its market capitalization crested $5...
FIRE v London
June ’24: Election fever
June was busy. I travelled more than usual in June. Partly in the UK – visiting Glasgow, the west...
9th Jul 2024
June was busy. I travelled more than usual in June. Partly in the UK – visiting Glasgow, the west country, the south coast and the Isle of Wight; partly overseas – I visited Ibiza for a few days of R&R. Meanwhile, the election campaigns were in full swing. Nigel Farage did his...
Commoncog
The Gambling King
The start of the Asian Conglomerates Series: we open with a look at the life of Stanley Ho, gambling...
2nd Feb 2025
The start of the Asian Conglomerates Series: we open with a look at the life of Stanley Ho, gambling king of Macau.
The Rational Walk
The Digest #226
Warren Buffett donates $1.15 billion to his family foundations
26th Nov 2024
Warren Buffett donates $1.15 billion to his family foundations
Mazdak
AI Agents vs. SaaS: Is This the Beginning of a Structural Reset or Another Tech Overreaction?
Public software companies just had one of their worst weeks in years—and the market reaction was...
9th Feb 2026
Public software companies just had one of their worst weeks in years—and the market reaction was swift, brutal, and emotional.
FIRE v London
Nov ’25: Coastal Folly loan repaid
Trump dominated the headlines again. This time partly due to some very biased editing by the BBC of...
14th Dec 2025
Trump dominated the headlines again. This time partly due to some very biased editing by the BBC of a Panorama show about Trump before the US election. There was also the omnipresent UK Budget. Which has had more than enough coverage. I did a ‘damage assessment‘ at the time and...
Mazdak
Twitter vs. Instagram Threads: The Battle for the Short-Form Social Media Crown
Twitter and Instagram are two of the most popular social media platforms in the world. They both...
8th Jul 2023
Twitter and Instagram are two of the most popular social media platforms in the world. They both offer users a way to share short-form content, but they have different approaches to how that content is displayed and consumed. Twitter is a more public platform, where anyone can...
balajis.com
The Network School
We’re starting a new school near Singapore for the dark talent of the world. Apply online at...
16th Aug 2024
We’re starting a new school near Singapore for the dark talent of the world. Apply online at ns.com/apply.
Mazdak
Markets are calmer. The bigger questions aren't.
A quick run through the stories that actually matter today — rates, trade, cancer research, robots,...
20th Aug 2026
A quick run through the stories that actually matter today — rates, trade, cancer research, robots, and a few things that could affect how business gets done.
Bits about Money
Requiem for a bank loan
A brief retrospective on an attractive product First Republic used to offer, and a wider discourse...
16th Jun 2023
A brief retrospective on an attractive product First Republic used to offer, and a wider discourse on the banking crisis.
Moneyness
Trump claims US banks can't open in Canada—US banks disagree
In what seems to be an effort to extort Canada for additional benefits, Donald Trump complained...
4th Feb 2025
In what seems to be an effort to extort Canada for additional benefits, Donald Trump complained yesterday on social media that CANADA DOESN'T EVEN ALLOW U.S. BANKS TO OPEN OR DO BUSINESS THERE. And so according to Trump, Canada doubly deserves to be disciplined with...
Commoncog
Activist Investing in Asian Conglomerates
How do Asian conglomerates play in capital markets, given pliable governments and weak regulators?...
3rd Mar 2025
How do Asian conglomerates play in capital markets, given pliable governments and weak regulators? We examine the career of one activist investor, to see what that tells us about the Asian tycoons we’ve been studying.
FIRE v London
April 2025 – balmy weather, barmy markets
Better late than never, I’m doing a quick update on April. More for the record than because anything...
24th May 2025
Better late than never, I’m doing a quick update on April. More for the record than because anything particularly notable happened in the portfolio, ignoring the mid month gyrations. It was a lovely month, April. I did a bit of travelling, but the UK had generally lovely spring...
Citation Needed
Caroline Ellison: A woman with agency or a helpless pawn?
Why did the former Alameda Research CEO receive only two years imprisonment for her role in the FTX...
2nd Oct 2024
Why did the former Alameda Research CEO receive only two years imprisonment for her role in the FTX collapse?
Moneyness
Renovatio monetae
This silver pfennig from the Archbishopric of Magdeburg (1152-1192) was subject to a policy of...
8th May 2024
This silver pfennig from the Archbishopric of Magdeburg (1152-1192) was subject to a policy of renovatio monetae. Twice a year whoever held it had to bring it in to be changed for new coins at a rate of four old coins to three new coins. That suggests an annualized tax rate on...
Citation Needed
Issue 78 – President on brink of bailout for bitcoin
Trump tries to breathe life back into the crypto markets’ “Trump pump” while federal regulatory...
3rd Mar 2025
Trump tries to breathe life back into the crypto markets’ “Trump pump” while federal regulatory agencies wash their hands of any crypto industry oversight
FIRE v London
Feb ’26: Before Iran
So, for the avoidance of doubt, the end of the month is the last trading day of the month. Which for...
16th Mar 2026
So, for the avoidance of doubt, the end of the month is the last trading day of the month. Which for February, meant Friday February 27th. The fact that the Israelis and the Americans invaded Iran on February 28th is going to impact March, not February. Which is just as well...
Farnam Street
Why Write
Why write an essay when you can type a few words and have AI generate one for you? Why write an...
9th Mar 2023
Why write an essay when you can type a few words and have AI generate one for you? Why write an email when AI can auto-respond for you with all the typical pleasantries and talking-points? While AI doing these things for you is likely to happen, it’s not necessarily a good thing....
Commoncog
You’re Always Selling to a Situation, Not an ICP
One simple idea that falls out of the Heart of Innovation book — that you can use immediately — is...
19th Jun 2025
One simple idea that falls out of the Heart of Innovation book — that you can use immediately — is this idea of selling into situations, not selling to ideal customer profiles. It’s what the pros do anyway.
oftwominds-Charles...
The Inevitable Drift Down from "Can't Lose" Owning Stocks to "Can't Win"
Even if an AI program advises selling everything and walking away from the market for five years,...
3rd Nov 2025
Even if an AI program advises selling everything and walking away from the market for five years, how many of us would take this advice?
Only those who experienced the heady euphoria of the late 1990s dot-com bubble in tech stocks know what the shift from "can't lose"...
Musings on Markets
Country Risk: Drivers, Measures and Investment Implications - The 2026 Edition!
I am a creature of habit in my personal and professional life, and in the context of the content...
15th Jul 2026
I am a creature of habit in my personal and professional life, and in the context of the content that I post online, there is a ritual that I follow with my data updates. I start the year with my general data update online, and follow up with a series of posts where I examine the...
balajis.com
The Bitcoin ETF is the spiritual reversal of Executive Order 6102
Back in 1935, they seized the gold. But now, digital gold is back.
11th Jan 2024
Back in 1935, they seized the gold. But now, digital gold is back.
Seeking Wisdom
Make Every Day Count
It was a 2012 evening, and I was driving home from the office. I was worried about finishing a big...
1st Nov 2023
It was a 2012 evening, and I was driving home from the office. I was worried about finishing a big project at work on time. I’d made the journey from the office to my home so many times, my car almost seemed to know the way by itself. My hands were on the wheel, but…
Musings on Markets
Anatomy of a Market Crisis: Tariffs, Markets and the Economy!
I was boarding a plane for a trip to Latin America late in the evening last Wednesday (April 2), and...
7th Apr 2025
I was boarding a plane for a trip to Latin America late in the evening last Wednesday (April 2), and as is my practice, I was checking the score on the Yankee game, when I read the tariff news announcement. Coming after a few days where the market seemed to have found its...
Commoncog
How to Use Power
How do you gain power, use power, and identify those who have power, so that you may protect...
2nd Dec 2024
How do you gain power, use power, and identify those who have power, so that you may protect yourself against them? Part two of three in a series on power in business.
FIRE v London
Mar ’25: Anticipating tariffs
What’s in the news? Talking about the news in March, give nwhat’s been happing on the tariff front...
11th Apr 2025
What’s in the news? Talking about the news in March, give nwhat’s been happing on the tariff front over the last few weeks, seems a bit pointless. We entered March with a lot of drama about Ukraine, and some notable ‘ceasefire’ activity on the diplomatic front. We finished March...
Mazdak
Apple’s 2025 Product Unveiling: What’s New and What Actually Matters
Apple’s latest keynote delivered a sweeping set of updates across AirPods, iPhones, and the Apple...
9th Sep 2025
Apple’s latest keynote delivered a sweeping set of updates across AirPods, iPhones, and the Apple Watch lineup.
Bits about Money
One Regulation E, Two Very Different Regimes
How consumer protection in payments works, why it was designed that way, and why it’s being...
7th Jan 2026
How consumer protection in payments works, why it was designed that way, and why it’s being contested today.
Musings on Markets
The Corporate Life Cycle: Managing, Valuation and Investing Implications!
As I reveal my ignorance about TikTok trends, social media celebrities and Gen Z slang, my children...
20th Aug 2024
As I reveal my ignorance about TikTok trends, social media celebrities and Gen Z slang, my children are quick to point out my age, and I accept that reality, for the most part. I understand that I am too old to exercise without stretching first or eat a heaping plate of cheese...
Commoncog
Business Ecosystem Change Takes Time
The birth of Sony, and the possibility that private corporations and private individuals can change...
11th Jun 2024
The birth of Sony, and the possibility that private corporations and private individuals can change broader business ecosystems.
Mazdak
Bank of Canada Holds Rates Steady, Inflation Progress Seen as Insufficient
The Bank of Canada (BoC) opted to maintain its key interest rate at 5% today, signaling a cautious...
6th Mar 2024
The Bank of Canada (BoC) opted to maintain its key interest rate at 5% today, signaling a cautious stance on inflation despite recent declines. Governor Tiff Macklem acknowledged progress in bringing inflation down to 2.9% in January, but emphasized the need for continued...
Seeking Wisdom
Hello LLMs!
When you are having trouble getting your thinking straight, consider an extreme or simple case. This...
4th Oct 2023
When you are having trouble getting your thinking straight, consider an extreme or simple case. This will often give you the insight needed to move forward. I nodded in agreement when I read the above lines from the book Maxims for Thinking Analytically. ChatGPT took the world by...
Musings on Markets
The Situational Awareness Blow-up: The Collateral Damage from Investing Conviction!
Earlier this year, I was asked what I thought about Leopold Aschenbrenner and I admitted that I knew...
11th Aug 2026
Earlier this year, I was asked what I thought about Leopold Aschenbrenner and I admitted that I knew little about him other than what I had read about him, more in social media, than in the press - that he was a 25-year-old wunderkind who had started at OpenAI but had left to...
balajis.com
All Property Becomes Cryptography
For 99%+ of what's valuable, for every financial asset and capital asset, we will secure it onchain.
28th Jul 2025
For 99%+ of what's valuable, for every financial asset and capital asset, we will secure it onchain.
oftwominds-Charles...
If We Set Aside Ideology, Is There Anything We Can Agree On?
Just the experiment of setting aside ideological certainties for a moment would be instructive. ...
3rd Mar 2025
Just the experiment of setting aside ideological certainties for a moment would be instructive.
Humans are hard-wired to prefer simplicity over complexity, and this is the foundation of ideology, which like mythology takes a complex world and radically simplifies it to an...
oftwominds-Charles...
Why Healthcare Is in a Death Spiral: Follow the Money
If each of these is not a part of any 'reform,' than all that is being done is pouring money into a...
1st Dec 2025
If each of these is not a part of any 'reform,' than all that is being done is pouring money into a monopolizing cartel, just in a slightly different way.
Unbeknownst to those of us with little inside knowledge of the complex financial plumbing of the US healthcare system,...
Farnam Street
Chesterton’s Fence: A Lesson in Second Order Thinking
A core component of making great decisions is understanding the rationale behind previous decisions....
5th Sep 2022
A core component of making great decisions is understanding the rationale behind previous decisions. If we don’t understand how we got “here,” we run the risk of making things much worse. *** When we seek to intervene in any system created by someone, it’s not enough to view...
The Rational Walk
A Quarter Century of Investing
Lessons learned from twenty-five years of enterprising investing
6th Jan 2025
Lessons learned from twenty-five years of enterprising investing
Musings on Markets
Data Update 1 for 2025: The Draw (and Danger) of Data
For the last four decades, I have spent the first week of each year collecting and analyzing data on...
10th Jan 2025
For the last four decades, I have spent the first week of each year collecting and analyzing data on publicly traded companies and sharing what I find with anyone who is interested. It is the end of the first full week in 2025, and my data update for the year is now up and...
Calculated Risk
May 2nd COVID Update: COVID Deaths Continue to Decline
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios.
For deaths, I'm...
2nd May 2025
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios.
For deaths, I'm currently using 4 weeks ago for "now", since the most recent three weeks will be revised significantly.
Note: "Effective May 1, 2024, hospitals are no longer required to report...
Molson Hart's Blog -...
Heureka
A “heureka” is a surprisingly powerful yet simple solution to a complex optimization problem, which...
20th Sep 2025
A “heureka” is a surprisingly powerful yet simple solution to a complex optimization problem, which is theoretically inferior to more complicated solutions, but is, in practice, optimal.
Example:
“I’m a 22 year old Phi Beta Kappa alumnus of University of Iowa and I have this idea...
oftwominds-Charles...
The Power of Our Behavior
Why is any reduction in consumption posed in terms of unbearable sacrifice, when no sacrifices are...
23rd Jan 2025
Why is any reduction in consumption posed in terms of unbearable sacrifice, when no sacrifices are necessary to consequentially reduce consumption?
When we think of the word power, we associate it with external forces: energy, technology, the government, etc. But our own...
Mazdak
Google: Monopolized?
Is Google too big? For years, the tech giant has dominated the search market, facing little...
1st Dec 2024
Is Google too big? For years, the tech giant has dominated the search market, facing little competition.
Bits about Money
Bits about Money yearly recap and plans
What we covered in 2024, what are plans are in 2025, and a solicitation for supporting memberships.
15th Jan 2025
What we covered in 2024, what are plans are in 2025, and a solicitation for supporting memberships.
FIRE v London
Nov ’23 revalues the future
In the news It has been quite a busy month out there. The Israel/Gaza crisis continues. Public...
5th Dec 2023
In the news It has been quite a busy month out there. The Israel/Gaza crisis continues. Public opinion is shifting against the Israel government here, even in North London – which would normally be one of the most sympathetic neighbourhoods outside Tel Aviv. The Ukrainians are...
Commoncog
Goodhart's Law Isn't as Useful as You Might Think
Goodhart's Law is useless. It tells you about a phenomenon, but it doesn't tell you how to solve it....
11th Jan 2023
Goodhart's Law is useless. It tells you about a phenomenon, but it doesn't tell you how to solve it. We look at how organisations actually prevent Goodhart's Law, and illustrate this with Amazon's Weekly Business Review as an example.
Citation Needed
Meet Trump’s memecoin dinner guests
Trump's crypto-for-access dinner triggers broad ethics alarms, and 73% non-US attendance raises...
7th May 2025
Trump's crypto-for-access dinner triggers broad ethics alarms, and 73% non-US attendance raises fresh concerns over foreign influence
Seeking Wisdom
A Few Books and Resources I’ve Found Useful Over the Years
If someone had told me three and a half years ago that there would be something called ChatGPT that...
31st Dec 2025
If someone had told me three and a half years ago that there would be something called ChatGPT that could answer questions across almost any discipline, I would have called them a lunatic. And yet, here we are. That’s exactly what ChatGPT does today. I can ask it coding...
oftwominds-Charles...
25 Years of Higher Interest Rates Ahead?
Interest rates are linked to inflation, but they're also linked to risk.
As a result of...
2nd May 2025
Interest rates are linked to inflation, but they're also linked to risk.
As a result of recency bias, where we assume the recent past is a permanent state of affairs, many believe near-zero interest rates are "normal." They aren't. As the chart of 10-year US Treasury...
Mazdak
Trillions Flow into AI: The New Infrastructure Arms Race
🌐 Big Tech Bets Trillions on AI Infrastructure
26th Jun 2025
🌐 Big Tech Bets Trillions on AI Infrastructure
Commoncog
Putting the Jobs to be Done Interview to Practice
Things we wished someone told us, before we put the JTBD interview to practice.
9th Jul 2025
Things we wished someone told us, before we put the JTBD interview to practice.
FIRE v London
Mar ’24: A towering influence
I’ve enjoyed March. I managed to enjoy a few days’ skiing, despite less snow than any of us would...
1st Apr 2024
I’ve enjoyed March. I managed to enjoy a few days’ skiing, despite less snow than any of us would like, in the Austrian alps. Back at home, the sun has been getting stronger, and the evenings have been getting lighter – and now with Summer Time we will enjoy lovely late evenings...
The Diff
Imperfectly Enforced Rules Create Bad Local Maxima
Plus! Ads; Marketing; Pricing; Take Rates; SPVs
2 weeks ago
Plus! Ads; Marketing; Pricing; Take Rates; SPVs
Molson Hart's Blog -...
The DECIDE Algorithm — A Simple Step-by-Step Method for Converting Idle Time into Productive Action
DECIDE
D - Determine the Bottleneck
E - Engage with the subject matter
C - Clear distractions
I -...
16th Mar 2025
DECIDE
D - Determine the Bottleneck
E - Engage with the subject matter
C - Clear distractions
I - Implement mental models
D - Decide how to proceed
E - Execute next steps
When you’re traveling or waiting for something to happen, instead of listening to a podcast or scrolling on...
Citation Needed
Issue 53 – Choose rich
Euphoria has risen along with crypto prices, but nothing has changed from the last bubble.
13th Mar 2024
Euphoria has risen along with crypto prices, but nothing has changed from the last bubble.
Musings on Markets
A Golden Year (2025): Gold's Price Surge - The Signal in the Noise!
I grew up in India in a time where if you had wealth, your investment options were limited. A stock...
6th Nov 2025
I grew up in India in a time where if you had wealth, your investment options were limited. A stock market with sparse listings, accompanied by a lack of trust in financial assets, led investors to put their wealth into tangible assets. Real estate was the most common choice but...
The Diff
Should Congress be Allowed to Trade?
Plus! Norms Trading; Point-of-Sale; Trade Trench Warfare; AI and Ads; Bluffing Your Way to Better...
1st May 2025
Plus! Norms Trading; Point-of-Sale; Trade Trench Warfare; AI and Ads; Bluffing Your Way to Better Management
FIRE v London
My exits – a post mortem
Readers will know that I dabble with active investing – I pick stocks. Lord, make me passive, but...
4th Feb 2025
Readers will know that I dabble with active investing – I pick stocks. Lord, make me passive, but not yet Rather like The Investor at Monevator, I firmly believe in the merits of low cost index tracking as an investment strategy, but I also enjoy the thrills / intellectual...
balajis.com
Gil Duran Faked A Quote For the New Republic
Then they stealth edited the piece. They knew they'd committed libel.
1st May 2024
Then they stealth edited the piece. They knew they'd committed libel.
Citation Needed
Issue 59 – Hot damn, this is going to get interesting quickly
Are US legislators warming to crypto? The SEC approves Ethereum ETPs, and a crypto bill gets through...
7th Jun 2024
Are US legislators warming to crypto? The SEC approves Ethereum ETPs, and a crypto bill gets through the House.
FIRE v London
Oct ’23: Terror erupts from Gaza
It’s the Middle East again. I don’t have any perspective on it, sadly, other than that I hear of...
5th Nov 2023
It’s the Middle East again. I don’t have any perspective on it, sadly, other than that I hear of some nasty low level youth violence/intimidation/vandalism in North London in Jewish neighbourhoods by pro-Palestinian, dare-I-say-it pro-Hamas hotheads. But in most of London life...
Mazdak
OpenAI Launches GPT‑4.1: What You Need to Know About the New Family of AI Models
OpenAI has officially released the GPT‑4.1 family — and it’s more than just a minor upgrade.
14th Apr 2025
OpenAI has officially released the GPT‑4.1 family — and it’s more than just a minor upgrade.
Farnam Street
The Best Summary of Atlas Shrugged
A brief, no-fluff, summary of Atlas Shrugged by Ayn Rand. If you want to learn how capitalist...
9th Jul 2026
A brief, no-fluff, summary of Atlas Shrugged by Ayn Rand. If you want to learn how capitalist countries become socialist, this book will help you. Let’s dive in. Atlas Shrugged: The Simple Version The world depends on a relatively small number of people who build, invent, and...
oftwominds-Charles...
AI Data Centers Are Not the Railroads of Today
The AI boom shares all the risk profiles of previous speculative manias but lacks society-wide...
1st Jun 2026
The AI boom shares all the risk profiles of previous speculative manias but lacks society-wide benefits while generating fast-metastasizing negative consequences and costs.
The idea that the current bubble in AI data centers is an echo of the railroad-construction bubble of...
Musings on Markets
A “Fairly Highly Valued” Market: A Fed Chair Opines on Stocks, but should we listen?
In December 1996, Alan Greenspan used the words "irrational exuberance" to describe the stock market...
6th Oct 2025
In December 1996, Alan Greenspan used the words "irrational exuberance" to describe the stock market at the time, and those words not only became the title of Robert Shiller's cautionary book on market bubbles, but also the beginnings of the belief that central bankers had the...
balajis.com
Global Crypto Regulation: Who’s Hot and Who’s Not?
Global crypto regulation is confusing. So I surveyed the information available and created a...
25th May 2022
Global crypto regulation is confusing. So I surveyed the information available and created a heatmap.
FIRE v London
June ’26: Is zero tax worth the hassle?
Monaco I was lucky enough to go to Monaco for the F1 in June. Something I feel quite strongly about...
19th Jul 2026
Monaco I was lucky enough to go to Monaco for the F1 in June. Something I feel quite strongly about and have written about before on this blog is how strong the monkey brain wiring is for us all to peg ourselves off the next rung up on the ladder. No matter how high up… Continue...
Musings on Markets
The Greed & Fear Tango: The Markets in April 2025!
I started the month on a trip to Latin America, just as the tariff story hit my newsfeed and the...
3rd May 2025
I started the month on a trip to Latin America, just as the tariff story hit my newsfeed and the market reacted with a sell off that knocked more than $9 trillion in market cap for global equities in the next two days. The month was off to a bad start, and tariffs remained the...
Commoncog
Letter to a Young Person Worrying About AI
It is a common misperception that you must be able to predict the future to do well. But it’s...
20th Oct 2025
It is a common misperception that you must be able to predict the future to do well. But it’s possible to act without prediction, even in the face of AI. This is how.
Bits about Money
Debanking (and Debunking?)
Crypto advocates kicked off a recent, somewhat politicized, discussion of debanking. Strap in for...
9th Dec 2024
Crypto advocates kicked off a recent, somewhat politicized, discussion of debanking. Strap in for scintillating banking compliance trivia.
Calculated Risk
Real Estate Newsletter Articles this Week: New Home Sales Decrease to 657,000 Annual Rate in January
At the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter this week:
Click on graph for larger image.
New Home...
1st Mar 2025
At the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter this week:
Click on graph for larger image.
New Home Sales Decrease to 657,000 Annual Rate in January
Case-Shiller: National House Price Index Up 3.9% year-over-year in December
Inflation Adjusted House Prices 1.0% Below 2022...
FIRE v London
Oct ’25: Trim, trim & trim
October in the markets was one of those slightly giddy months. My portfolio crossed through a big...
9th Nov 2025
October in the markets was one of those slightly giddy months. My portfolio crossed through a big number threshold, and kept going up. The market stats don’t quite tell the whole story. On a constant currency basis, markets rose 2.8%. Non-UK currencies (AUD, EUR, USD) rose...
Commoncog
Under The Hood
How do you shape employee culture? How do you win employee commitment? Under The Hood has a coherent...
12th Nov 2024
How do you shape employee culture? How do you win employee commitment? Under The Hood has a coherent model for building this skill.
FIRE v London
Feb ’24: Envyidia
I’ve had quite a lot of culture to enjoy in February. Aside from some travel for the Six Nations...
3rd Mar 2024
I’ve had quite a lot of culture to enjoy in February. Aside from some travel for the Six Nations rugby, I’ve been to two shows – one in London’s Royal Opera House and one on the south coast. Both events were either full or practically full. Covid feels fully behind us now. But...
Commoncog
1st Sept 2026: An Increase in Membership Prices
Commoncog is increasing membership prices on 1st September 2026. If you’d like to lock in the old...
11th Aug 2026
Commoncog is increasing membership prices on 1st September 2026. If you’d like to lock in the old prices, you should probably sign up before then.
Citation Needed
Issue 71 – (Crypto) banks are not your friends
Celsius’ Alex Mashinsky pleads guilty to fraud, some Tornado Cash sanctions are overturned, and tech...
5th Dec 2024
Celsius’ Alex Mashinsky pleads guilty to fraud, some Tornado Cash sanctions are overturned, and tech billionaires complain about “debanking”.
Commoncog
The Amazon Weekly Business Review
Everything you need to know about the Amazon Weekly Business Review: how it works, why it works, and...
2nd Jul 2024
Everything you need to know about the Amazon Weekly Business Review: how it works, why it works, and how it helps Amazon win.
Molson Hart's Blog -...
America Underestimates the Difficulty of Bringing Manufacturing Back
On April 2nd, 2025, our president announced major new taxes on imports from foreign countries...
6th Apr 2025
On April 2nd, 2025, our president announced major new taxes on imports from foreign countries (“tariffs”), ranging from 10% to 49%. The stated goal is to bring manufacturing back to the United States and to “make America wealthy again”.
These tariffs will not work. In fact, they...
Bits about Money
Fiction and Finance
Recommendations of works of fiction of interest to financial practitioners or enthusiasts.
7th Oct 2024
Recommendations of works of fiction of interest to financial practitioners or enthusiasts.
balajis.com
California Is Not A Democracy
It's a one-party state. They hold elections, but the Party always wins.
10th Jun 2024
It's a one-party state. They hold elections, but the Party always wins.
FIRE v London
August ’24: From triumph to tragedy
Looking back on the month, it was more eventful than Augusts are reputed to be. In the UK we are...
7th Sep 2024
Looking back on the month, it was more eventful than Augusts are reputed to be. In the UK we are getting used to our new government. And, in some cases, violently testing its boundaries with some summer rioting. We’ve seen some dreadful street behaviour, frequently of a racist /...
Molson Hart's Blog -...
The Trial: How I lost $1 million dollars and 7 years in a lawsuit over Brain Flakes
I thought I was good.
Until I met Sol.
Solomon Rosengarten is a lawyer from Brooklyn. He has an AOL...
25th Nov 2025
I thought I was good.
Until I met Sol.
Solomon Rosengarten is a lawyer from Brooklyn. He has an AOL email address. He is not great with the mute button on his phone. He sometimes comes across as incompetent.
But, he is the best damned lawyer I have ever known.
Sol is a killer....
Seeking Wisdom
Few thoughts on life, psychology, and mindset
I’ve been writing my thoughts on life, psychology, and mindset for some time. I’ve considered...
2nd Sep 2023
I’ve been writing my thoughts on life, psychology, and mindset for some time. I’ve considered transferring some of these writings from Notion into this post. In physics, three laws can explain 99% of observations. However, in life, psychology, and mindset, 99 laws can barely...
Commoncog
How to Handle Disruptive Change
As a business, how do you deal with disruption — technological or otherwise? Some patterns from a...
3 days ago
As a business, how do you deal with disruption — technological or otherwise? Some patterns from a collection of case studies.
Molson Hart's Blog -...
Being an Amazon Seller in 2021; Year in Review
I’m the founder and CEO of Viahart (est. 2010), an e-commerce focused educational toy company. We...
23rd Jan 2022
I’m the founder and CEO of Viahart (est. 2010), an e-commerce focused educational toy company. We did $8.8 million in sales in 2021. This article is going to tell you what it was like to run this business in 2021 vs. 2020, amidst threats like the Amazon aggregators, supply chain...
Mazdak
More Creators Can Now Make Money on YouTube
YouTube Lowers Monetization Requirements for Creators. New Twitter CEO Linda Yaccarino Sets Out...
13th Jun 2023
YouTube Lowers Monetization Requirements for Creators. New Twitter CEO Linda Yaccarino Sets Out Vision for the Platform. YouTube Makes It Easier for Small Creators to Earn Money YouTube is lowering the eligibility requirements for creators to make money from their channels....
Musings on Markets
The Imitation Game: Defending against AI's Dark Side!
A few weeks ago, I started receiving a stream of message about an Instagram post that I was...
5th Aug 2025
A few weeks ago, I started receiving a stream of message about an Instagram post that I was allegedly starring in, where after offering my views on Palantir's valuation, I was soliciting investors to invest with me (or with an investment entity that had ties to me). I was not...
Bits about Money
Anatomy of a credit card rewards program
Credit card rewards are mostly funded out of interchange, a fee paid by businesses to accept cards.
29th Mar 2024
Credit card rewards are mostly funded out of interchange, a fee paid by businesses to accept cards.
Commoncog
Data and the Capital Cycle: How Koch Became an Empire
How Koch Industries became an empire. We draw on ideas from both the Becoming Data Driven series and...
11th Dec 2023
How Koch Industries became an empire. We draw on ideas from both the Becoming Data Driven series and the Capital Expertise series.
FIRE v London
May ’23: Magic megatech
May has been election month. In the UK, some (but not all – and not London) local councils had...
4th Jun 2023
May has been election month. In the UK, some (but not all – and not London) local councils had elections. The Tories took a drubbing, as expected. And overseas the notable election seemed to be Turkey, where autocratic Erdogan won (however fairly) another five year term – taking...
Musings on Markets
Data Update 4 for 2026: The Global Perspective!
If you have read my first three data updates in 2026, I won’t blame you if you skip this one,...
2nd Feb 2026
If you have read my first three data updates in 2026, I won’t blame you if you skip this one, because you found them long and boring. I won't take issue with you either if you viewed them as too US-focused, because I did spend my second data update, looking at US equities, and my...
FIRE v London
July ’25: New high watermark
There wasn’t a huge amount to report from July. Politically/economically I fear the most important...
16th Aug 2025
There wasn’t a huge amount to report from July. Politically/economically I fear the most important event in the UK was the Labour government’s failure to enact its intended welfare reforms. This leaves the government a) unable to control spending b) unable to nudge the economy...
Bits about Money
The business of wallets
How digital wallets work, and how payment costs drive a lot of product decisions inside and around...
30th Apr 2024
How digital wallets work, and how payment costs drive a lot of product decisions inside and around them.
Bits about Money
The Long Shadow of Checks
A lot of more modern financial infrastructure follows the paths blazed by checks, at least in the...
13th Dec 2023
A lot of more modern financial infrastructure follows the paths blazed by checks, at least in the U.S.
Musings on Markets
The Power of Expectations: Nvidia's Earnings and the Market Reaction!
Last Wednesday (August 28), the market waited with bated breath for Nvidia’s earning call, scheduled...
6th Sep 2024
Last Wednesday (August 28), the market waited with bated breath for Nvidia’s earning call, scheduled for after the market closed. That call, at first sight, contained exceptionally good news, with revenues and earnings coming in at stratospheric levels, and above expectations,...
Mazdak
The Ultimate Small Business Hiring Guide
How to Find the Right Fit for Your Team
9th Oct 2024
How to Find the Right Fit for Your Team
Molson Hart's Blog -...
Chinese Labor Isn't Just Cheaper; It’s Better. We Need to Fix That.
A famous newspaper asked me to write an opinion article.
But every time I submitted a draft, they'd...
25th Dec 2025
A famous newspaper asked me to write an opinion article.
But every time I submitted a draft, they'd edit it, changing the message of the piece, even though the article was meant to be my opinion.
Most people would have consented to the edits to have the honor of being in the...
Seeking Wisdom
Embeddings – Part 2
This is the 9th post in my series on building a toy GPT. For better understanding, I recommend...
3rd Dec 2023
This is the 9th post in my series on building a toy GPT. For better understanding, I recommend reading my earlier posts first. Word embeddings convert words into fixed-length numerical arrays. Each number in these arrays corresponds to a specific characteristic of the word, such...
Commoncog
One Definition of Wisdom
Charlie Munger’s biggest business mistake, and what it tells us about wisdom.
14th Feb 2024
Charlie Munger’s biggest business mistake, and what it tells us about wisdom.
Commoncog
How to Become an Asian Tycoon
Every Asian tycoon becomes a tycoon in the exact same way. Learning to see this core pattern is half...
1st Apr 2025
Every Asian tycoon becomes a tycoon in the exact same way. Learning to see this core pattern is half the battle.
Bits about Money
Deposit insurance maximization as a service
In the wake of the recent banking crisis, there is some attention to deposit insurance limits. Some...
5th Apr 2023
In the wake of the recent banking crisis, there is some attention to deposit insurance limits. Some products increase them; here is how.
balajis.com
What are the Key Properties of Bitcoin?
There are plenty of unwritten rules when it comes to proposing protocol changes in Bitcoin. Some are...
11th Jan 2025
There are plenty of unwritten rules when it comes to proposing protocol changes in Bitcoin. Some are philosophical, some are technical, and some are a blend.
Farnam Street
Lessons on Leadership: Michael Abrashoff on Turning the Worst Ship in the Navy into the Best
Michael Abrashoff was in his mid-thirties when he took command of the USS Benfold, a guided missile...
23rd Oct 2022
Michael Abrashoff was in his mid-thirties when he took command of the USS Benfold, a guided missile destroyer and one of the worst-performing ships in the navy. Despite her potency, the “dysfunctional ship had a sullen crew that resented being there and could not wait to get out...
The Diff
Longreads + Open Thread
Funds, Slop, Schools, Lookism, Automation, Bots, Efficiency, Magnitogorsk
1st Aug 2026
Funds, Slop, Schools, Lookism, Automation, Bots, Efficiency, Magnitogorsk
Mazdak
Working Out Will Change Your Life
Do you want to lose weight? Have more energy? Sleep better? Improve your mood? If so, then you need...
8th Aug 2023
Do you want to lose weight? Have more energy? Sleep better? Improve your mood? If so, then you need to start working out. Working out has a myriad of benefits that can improve your life in many ways. Here are just a few of the ways that working out can change your life:
oftwominds-Charles...
Why We're Helpless When Things Break Down
Only then do we realize that by optimizing profit and efficiency, we've also optimized systemic...
1st May 2026
Only then do we realize that by optimizing profit and efficiency, we've also optimized systemic failure.
In my essay
AI, Money, Human Nature and the Problem with Problems, I refer to boundary conditions but didn't offer a thorough explanation of the role this concept plays...
Molson Hart's Blog -...
Is China Taking Over US Retail?
Yes.
Let me explain.
Amazon made it easy for Chinese companies to sell their products directly to...
17th Aug 2021
Yes.
Let me explain.
Amazon made it easy for Chinese companies to sell their products directly to American consumers. In response, the Chinese, after having hollowed out American manufacturing, have moved up the value chain to do the same thing to American wholesale and retail....
Bits about Money
The infrastructure behind ATMs
ATMs are connected to banks by networks which operate little-understood payment rails.
2nd Jan 2023
ATMs are connected to banks by networks which operate little-understood payment rails.
Commoncog
How Experts Sensemake
Two decades ago, the US military funded some research into how humans sensemake. This piece is about...
7th Apr 2026
Two decades ago, the US military funded some research into how humans sensemake. This piece is about that theory — the best theory of sensemaking that we have — why it matters for expertise, and how you can apply it to make sense of AI.
Citation Needed
Trump Jr.-advised prediction markets invite bets on president’s demise
President Trump’s deregulatory agenda emboldened prediction markets to push boundaries around...
2nd Sep 2025
President Trump’s deregulatory agenda emboldened prediction markets to push boundaries around permitted event contracts. Now sites advised by his son are allowing bets on his death.
oftwominds-Charles...
The Joys and Tragedies of Naivete
Our naivete is being exploited so ruthlessly and with such abandon that the golden age of the Big...
5th Aug 2026
Our naivete is being exploited so ruthlessly and with such abandon that the golden age of the Big Con is consuming itself.
Naivete is interesting because it's so easily confused with confidence, native optimism, youthful enthusiasm, and a host of delusions, including...
Bits about Money
Two Americas, one bank branch, and $50,000 cash
Ever wondered what happens if you try to take $50,000 in cash out of a bank? Answer: a year of...
5th Mar 2025
Ever wondered what happens if you try to take $50,000 in cash out of a bank? Answer: a year of investigative journalism.
FIRE v London
Dec ’25: 2025 in review
It’s over. The year of 2025, the thirteenth year I’ve been systematically tracking my investment...
19th Jan 2026
It’s over. The year of 2025, the thirteenth year I’ve been systematically tracking my investment portfolio every month, is over. One of the reasons I blog is to track my performance with a bit more discipline and rigour than I might manage otherwise. And part of that process is...
Bits about Money
Working title (insurance)
Title insurance is grossly overpriced relative to actual risks involved. Why is that?
30th Jun 2024
Title insurance is grossly overpriced relative to actual risks involved. Why is that?
Mazdak
OpenAI is not becoming a for-profit company after all.
In a significant reversal, OpenAI announced on May 5, 2025, that it will remain under the control of...
5th May 2025
In a significant reversal, OpenAI announced on May 5, 2025, that it will remain under the control of its nonprofit entity, abandoning earlier plans to restructure as a for-profit company.
FIRE v London
Jan ’26
January media seemed dominated by Greenland and Davos. As part of my efforts to avoid amplifying...
8th Feb 2026
January media seemed dominated by Greenland and Davos. As part of my efforts to avoid amplifying unstable narcissistic media-whore leaders, I haven’t got much to comment about. London has been pretty wet and miserable, as is January’s reputation. Meanwhile, markets were up quite...
Calculated Risk
2nd Look at Local Housing Markets in November
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: 2nd Look at Local Housing Markets in...
11th Dec 2024
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: 2nd Look at Local Housing Markets in November
A brief excerpt:
NOTE: The tables for active listings, new listings and closed sales all include a comparison to November 2019 for each local market (some 2019 data is not...
balajis.com
The Network State Conference
Come to Singapore on September 22, 2024 to build technodemocracy.
15th Oct 2023
Come to Singapore on September 22, 2024 to build technodemocracy.
balajis.com
America's $175 Trillion Problem
The true state of the global financial system, in ten charts.
25th Jul 2024
The true state of the global financial system, in ten charts.
Citation Needed
Issue 76 – Tripartisan legislation
Crypto exchanges face legal troubles, and Trump’s crypto empire grows as regulations are slashed and...
6th Feb 2025
Crypto exchanges face legal troubles, and Trump’s crypto empire grows as regulations are slashed and enforcement is sidelined.
FIRE v London
May ’26: Angelic timing
May was an enjoyable month. I kept reasonably busy, as well as doing a bit of travel around the UK....
17th Jun 2026
May was an enjoyable month. I kept reasonably busy, as well as doing a bit of travel around the UK. I visited King Charles’ Poundbury for the first time, as well as the south coast and the Cotswolds for a weekend. Meanwhile, the news has been dominated by Trump’s Iran war, and in...
Commoncog
Announcing the Commoncog Case Library Public Beta
We're testing a cognitive flexibility theory-driven learning library, designed to accelerate...
24th Aug 2022
We're testing a cognitive flexibility theory-driven learning library, designed to accelerate business expertise. Find out more.
Mazdak
⚖️ Copyright Law and Generative AI
Generative AI is revolutionizing the way we create, but it's also raising complex legal questions...
1st Dec 2023
Generative AI is revolutionizing the way we create, but it's also raising complex legal questions about copyright law. 🤯 What's the Issue? 🤔 Copyright law protects original works created by humans. But what about AI-generated content? Is it protected by copyright? 🤔
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