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The following are some (lognormal fit) median estimates from some X polls I just ran.
5 months ago

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More from Overcoming Bias

Details Avoid Bias

Long ago I noted:

2 months ago 31 votes
Sincerity Adds To Drift

The 2008 book Ritual and Its Consequences: An Essay on the Limits of Sincerity is hard for me to understand, but I’ve been trying to figure it out, as the concepts it considers seem interesting and important:

2 months ago 19 votes
Elite Confidence

Rob Henderson has a great essay summarizing the expert vs elite distinction I discussed in 6 prior posts (1 2 3 4 5 6):

2 months ago 21 votes
Surprisingly Blind

You might expect us to understand our romantic couple breakups very well.

2 months ago 17 votes
Abstraction Worsens Drift

My Ph.D.

2 months ago 15 votes

More in history

‘I Humbly Beg Your Speedy Answer’ by Mary Beth North review

‘I Humbly Beg Your Speedy Answer’ by Mary Beth North review JamesHoare Mon, 07/14/2025 - 08:42

12 hours ago 3 votes
An Anciente Mappe of Fairyland by Bernard Sleigh, 1920

“I believe in Faeries. It is very natural and not a bit foolish; for in these days we are quickly learning how little we know of any other world than our own.” – Bernard Sleigh, An Anciente Mappe of Fairyland Bernard Sleigh   After doctors drilled a hole in his skull to alleviate pressure caused … Continue reading "An Anciente Mappe of Fairyland by Bernard Sleigh, 1920" The post An Anciente Mappe of Fairyland by Bernard Sleigh, 1920 appeared first on Flashbak.

13 hours ago 2 votes
A Tale of Zeus as a Goose

The Totally Unhinged Story Behind the Stars

8 hours ago 2 votes
Where Was the Biblical Saba (Land of the Queen of Sheba)?

Strap on your metaphorical scuba gear because we’re about to dive into the murky depths of history, myth, and archaeological intrigue surrounding Saba—the golden land of the fabled Queen Makeda. What was Saba really like? How did its people live, and what did its cities look like? Most importantly, where was this elusive kingdom, […]

yesterday 3 votes
Weekly Wisdom Quiz

Destiny and... Death Rays?

yesterday 3 votes