More from Luxagraf: Topographical Writings
Work sent me to New York City in January, for an annual meeting. It's something I've avoided in the past, but I was curious to see what New York City is like these days. The picture painted from the outside is quite grim, but if you learn anything from traveling it's that the picture you get from outside a place rarely matches what is happening on the ground. If you really want to know what a place is like, you have to go. I've lived in New York City for brief periods of time at various points in my life, all total less than six months, but enough to get a vague sense of the city and long enough to have had a routine here. You have to carve out a life in the city, find those places that, for you, make it not such a massive and overwhelming place. You have to find those parts that become yours. For me that was the area of Manhattan between Broadway and 7th avenue, from just below Houston to about 18th street. This was where I spent the vast majority of my time in NYC. My girlfriend at the time had an apartment on Minetta, just off 6th avenue. I was working as a photographer and photo retoucher, mostly doing model head shots. It was tedious, boring work, but I could do it anywhere, and in 2001, that felt like a miracle. I'd get done in the evenings and meet her at Tonic, an odd, but wonderful little music club just down from where she worked. It was a strangely idyllic and quiet time and I enjoyed it. The day I left for New York it was -25F at the cabin, -40F with the wind chill. I ended up spending the night before I left in a hotel in Duluth because I wasn't sure our car would start in those temps (it did, but barely, several people were stuck at the hotel because their cars wouldn't start). I'd never seen a plane de-iced before, which as slightly unsettling, but it worked. It was an uneventful flight to New York. I had a few hours a day to myself in the mornings, which I used to wander the city, see what had changed in my old neighborhood. The Waverly diner, where I used to spend an inordinate amount of time, didn't seem to have changed at all, aside from upping the prices on the menu. If you can get a good breakfast, the rest of the day takes care of itself. My old neighborhood felt familiar too, though the restaurants were different, a few businesses had gone, some new ones come in. Encouragingly, two chain stores were gone, replaced by smaller businesses. The third floor window on the far left of the gray building is my former apartment. It was small enough that you could sit on the end of the bed and cook. The apartment building where I lived seemed completely unchanged, right down to the bum pissing on the street at 6:30 in the morning. Just like it was in 2001. Which is not to say nothing has changed. Tonic is long gone, so are many other places we used go, driven out as rent prices in the area went from high to insane. But what has really changed is larger than all that. New York just no longer seems relevant in any meaningful way. Not the way it did in the early 2000s when New York seemed like the place to be. Perhaps it's just not relevant to me. Surely it is still relevant to someone. Surely there are still aspiring musicians and artists flocking to New York. But perhaps not. Who can afford to live in Manhattan anymore? Certainly not starving artists and future stars currently tending bar. There's no Yeah Yeah Yeahs forming in the East Village these days. And out here in the larger world -- it's been a long time since I heard anyone, anywhere outside of New York say anything nice about it. I was half expecting the city to be an apocalyptic wasteland, empty streets, newspapers blowing in the wind, but thankfully it's not that. It feels like a place that has pulled back into itself. The cultural relevancy might be gone, but the city survives. In fact I'd say the city is on the upswing. Or it feels that way when you walk around. I spent most of my time in the financial district, hardly the place you'd go to catch the pulse of the city as it were, in fact, not a place I'd really been before, but that part of the city seems to be thriving. Perhaps that's why the rest of it isn't? The early 2000s heyday of the New York music and art scene that I remember was due in part to the market crash and real estate crash that preceded it. The financial district was a mess, but rent was cheap and creative people flocked to the city. When rents are high like they are today, those that thrive in the liminal spaces of culture go elsewhere. The market thrives, the city does not. Then the market crashes. Rinse and repeat, seemingly forever. I like knowing that New York is still here, still going. For all that's happened since I called New York home -- September 11th, the Covid mess, and more -- the city feels to me like it's survived with at least its spirit in tact. I have no interest in calling it home these days though, I couldn't wait to get back to the woods.
"Nothing will work unless you do." –John Wooden Humans are one of the few large mammals that don't practice for life by playing. Watch wolf puppies, lion cubs, young bears, elk, deer, pretty much any mammal and you'll notice that all they do is play. There's really no teaching either. Parents, and the pack or herd, might put some guard rails on the play, but otherwise the kids are left to their own devices. We, on the other hand, isolate our young, cram an esoteric collection of information in their brains, and later wonder why they can't function in the world. The closest thing we have to this kind of play-as-life-practice is sports. Sports teach the way play teaches: you're on your own, with some guard rails, and a little technique. But the doing? That's on you. The doing is where you get to see kids' character develop. They learn what it feels like to win, to lose, to struggle, to work hard. The kids have been training juijitsu and wrestling for a total of four years, but it's always been broken up by our travels, which isn't the best if you want to get good at something. Constancy allows for repetition to become muscle memory in a way that nothing else does. You have to put in the time to get good at anything. Along with that though, they've never competed, which adds a pressure that makes all the training a bit more real. Competition adds stakes that aren't there otherwise. While Elliott has played plenty of baseball games (and this winter some basketball), the girls had never competed in wrestling until this year. Now they've been in two tournaments and know the pressure of competition and what it's like to lose and how to learn from both. I asked my daughter what she'd learned from competing and at first she said "cross face" because this is what every coach near the mat is always yelling. But then after thinking a moment she said, "a wrestling tournament is where your ego goes to die." Die is hyperbolic, but I was glad to hear that she's grappling with it. It's a tough balance to find. You have to believe in yourself enough to show up, and believe you can win, but also swallow some of that same ego if you don't. There is always someone else out there who has been working harder for longer, and there's no shame in losing to them. Elliott's basketball team won nine games and lost three, which gave him a good taste of both winning and losing. It wasn't enough to get them a trophy, but that's fine because if everyone gets a trophy -- who cares? When everyone get a trophy the trophy means nothing, and there's no point in trying. That's the saddest way to live. Better to lose and learn. Probably my favorite thing about sports isn't winning and losing, it's that the feedback loop of learning is very short. For example, you can't eat a box of donuts and go wrestle without very quickly learning that donuts are not what make you strong and fast. The connection between health and performance in life becomes very obvious when you are training hard in any sport. At the same time you also learn that your body can be changed and trained and strengthened in a surprisingly short amount of time, especially when you're young. One day you can't even pull your chin above the bar, but four weeks later you can crank out a few good pull ups without much struggle. Put in the time, reap the reward. Since I started juijitsu a couple years ago I've discovered that this still applies even if you're not a kid anymore. Show up, do the work, see the results. It all happens a little slower when you're older, but I think you're much more attuned to the way in which juijitsu, or whatever you happen to be doing, applies to all your life. Your problems and struggles on the mat are probably the same as your problems and struggles in life. I've also found that you have to work them out in both places before you move on. Which is where the quote at the top of this page comes in, though I would word it slightly differently: nothing will work, until you do.
The last few years in this area have not been good to ice fishermen. At least that's what I hear. Last year the lake barely froze over. By March it had thawed. This year started more optimistically. Parts of the bay were already frozen by New Year's -- the shallower, calmer water over by Ashland. Here it's deep and the current rips through a narrow pass between our cabin and Long Island. This is the mouth of Chequamegon Bay, which means it's the last place to freeze. Every day since temps dropped below freezing, a steady parade of cars drive past our house down to the boat launch ramp to check on the ice. Day after day they come, cars idling while the occupants stare out at the water, waiting for it to ice over. Every morning when Elliott and I walk the dog we stare out of the lake, wondering what the signs are that tell you when it's going to ice over. Some mornings there is a thin slurry of ice on the surface, but it disappears as the wind and waves pick up during the day. Some days there are piles of ice chunks on the shore, but then the next day they are gone. Then one day we came down to the water and there were big pieces of ice piled up around the shore. The next day there was more of it, like great puzzle pieces slowly fitting into shape. As the puzzle pieces seal up, pressure ridges form, where the forces of wind and the water below are enough to push up great masses of ice, smashing and grinding like tectonic plates in miniature. Even as it got firmer here, I still didn't want to go out on the ice where current runs strong beneath it when there were much safer places farther up the bay. The kids and I drove down to Memorial Park and went for a walk on the ice. It was surreal to stand and walk around where, in the summer, we swim and paddleboard. In a few places you could even see through the ice to the sand and rocks below, like a glass bottom boat. Then one day we got a bit more snow to smooth it over and someone, somewhere, decided it was worth the risk -- suddenly the lake around us filled up with ice fishing huts.
Snow brings a stillness to the world. Life hides away, burrowed under, tucked in. Sound is muted, lost in the hush of falling flakes. Only the soft brush of wind through the pines. I would like to say that Winter's first snow dumped a substantive number of feet, but it did not. It dumped a few inches. Not much, but it is something. An imitation of winter. It may well be that that's all winter is anymore, an imitation of what once was. Things are always changing, not always in the way we want. Only the future knows for sure, but I do feel a certain foreboding of doom for the person I saw driving the car with the bumper sticker "F**k Summer." For the most part, this is why we are here, to experience the winter, which in my family was supposed to be a synonym for snow. Alas Wisconsin winter is also a synonym for gray, sunless, and cold, with or without snow. This is part of why this world needs snow. Snow bathes the world in white, reflecting and multiplying the scant light on gray days. You need the snow to overcome the gray skies. Light or no, the kids have done their best to get out and enjoy what little snow we've had. Snow is also a buffer against the wind and cold for plants and animals. And us. Plenty more pipes freezing without a blanket of snow to insulate the ground from the worst of the cold. The frost here can reach many feet down into the soil by midwinter. More snow on the ground lingers longer in spring, insulating the soil, keeping it warmer longer through march freezes. Without it, it takes longer for seeds to germinate, roots to come to life, sap to thaw. There have been a couple of sunny days. One of them saw flocks of swans swimming by our beach. Further up the bay things get shallower and the water is already covered in ice and snow, but water still flows free in front of our cabin, which brings the bird life to us. Swans, Goldeneyes, Ravens, and Bald Eagles are all frequently around on the lake, along with Chickadees in the woods. The ice on the shore in the photo above lasted a few days, but as of this writing, the lake in front of us remains ice-free. A few days after the first snow it warmed up again and a hard rain washed it all away. Around Christmas it turned cold again and dropped a few more inches of snow, but once again it warmed up and the snow disappeared. As I write this winter is well underway and there is still little more than a light dusting of snow on the ground, about the same amount of snow we got a few years ago in South Carolina. I am still hoping for one good blizzard, but we'll see.
Fall is the slow exhale of the earth. The sun's rays grow ever scarcer as the frosts arrive. Long shadows cut the cold honey sunlight of afternoons that begin to fade at three, turning to a blue-pink twilight over the lake before darkness descends at five. Then four-thirty. Then four. A slow exhale of light. Not long after we returned from California, Corrinne and the kids left to visit her family in Dallas. Jasper and I spent the evenings wandering the lake shore, waiting on the snow. There's a trail that runs the length of the property here, about a quarter mile I'd guess, with a couple of beaches in hidden coves and a picnic table. The first time I walked down here and saw the table I thought of something one of my editor said to me years ago, "you have a nack for finding tables in the middle of nowhere." I suppose I do. I hate working indoors. I hate being indoors. Perhaps I find these tables because I'm always looking for places to be outdoors. My favorite spot is still a huge rock in the middle of the Oconee river where I did most of my writing in college. Not sure I'd have graduated without that rock. These days I write with a laptop, at least for work, so tables are nice (though I do avoid the laptop when possible). Soon it will be far too cold to work out here, but for now it's perfect. I write, the dog wanders the woods. Periodically we both look up and stare out at the lake. It's hard not too, it dominates the skyline like an ocean. Even when you can see a shore opposite, as you can where we are in the Chequamegon Bay, you can still feel something vast about Superior, even in these shallow waters here. In early November at these latitudes dawn happens to be right around the time I get up (roughly 6 AM, though I am fortunate enough to not have to set an alarm, so it varies). I started taking the dog down to the seashore every morning to watch the sunrise. This is when I began to really notice the many moods of Superior. It is a different lake every day. I like stormy days the best. I've always loved storms. It might sound odd, but one of my favorite things is to get caught out in a storm, pitching a tent in a hurry, or taking shelter under a rock overhang, a tree, a large leaf, as the rain pours down, the wind whips, the thunder cracks all around. Everything feels more alive at those moments. I feel more alive. Something about a storm sharpens the edges of perception, hones your body to an awareness that's difficult to achieve otherwise. Everything comes alive in a storm. Get out in one if you can. Or just before one, when the lightning is still a ways off, flashing out there on the horizon, the wind picking up, that preternatural darkness of storm, thunderheads obscuring the light of day. It feels as if the world is just waking up, coming alive, with something urgent to say. The air tingles with that potent mix of electricity and ozone, it smells like infinite possibility, life expanding boundlessly. Storms like that are rare here. That's more out west, or down south. The best storms here are sudden, generated by the lake. They call them lake effect storms. They come on incredibly fast, without any warning. It is both scary and energizing. It is unlike anywhere else I've ever been, any other storms I've been in. And they disappear just as fast. That's the summer though. Winter storms are perhaps something else, I don't know yet. I'm waiting. Walking the lake's edge, waiting. Come on storms. Come on winter. Come on.
More in life
One small but meaningful shift to make hard conversations a little bit easier
I apologise that the site has been a bit slow since it suddenly turned into a travel blog. My plan was to roll out my poor man’s CDN before we left, but I ran out of time. It’s definitely not just a nginx GeoIP lookup that refers image requests to a different cloud instance running in Toronto depending on where you’re coming from. I’m trying to use the computer less on this trip—if you can believe it—but I’ll see what I can do to improve this a bit. By Ruben Schade in Sydney, 2025-04-24.
Theanine is an amino acid that occurs naturally in tea. Many people take it as a supplement for stress or anxiety. It’s mechanistically plausible, but the scientific literature hasn’t been able to find much of a benefit. So I ran a 16-month blinded self-experiment in the hopes of showing it worked. It did not work. At the end of the post, I put out a challenge: If you think theanine, prove it. Run a blinded self-experiment. After all, if it works, then what are you afraid of? Well, it turns out that Luis Costigan had already run a self-experiment. Here was his protocol: Each morning, take 200 mg theanine or placebo (blinded) along with a small iced coffee. Wait 90 minutes. Record anxiety on a subjective scale of 0-10. He repeated this for 20 days. His mean anxiety after theanine was 4.2 and after placebo it was 5.0. A simple Bayesian analysis said there was an 82.6% chance theanine reduced anxiety. The p-value was 0.31, but this is a Bayesian blog—this is what you'd expect with a sample size of 20. A sample size of 20 just doesn’t have enough statistical power to have a good chance of finding a statistically significant result. If you assume the mean under placebo is 5.0, the mean under theanine is 4.2, and the standard deviation is 2.0, then you’d only have a 22.6% chance of getting a result with p<0.05. I think this experiment was good, both the experiment and the analysis. It doesn’t prove theanine works, but it was enough to make me wonder: Maybe theanine does work, but I somehow failed to bring out the effect? What would give theanine the best possible chance of working? Theanine is widely reported to help with anxiety from caffeine. While I didn’t explicitly take caffeine as part of my previous experiment, I drink tea almost every day, so I figured that if theanine helps, it should have shown up. But most people (and Luis) take theanine with coffee, not tea. I find that coffee makes me much more nervous than tea. For this reason, I sort of hate coffee and rarely drink it. Maybe the tiny amounts of natural theanine in tea masked the effects of the supplements? Or maybe you need to take theanine and caffeine at the same time? Or maybe for some strange reason theanine works for coffee (or coffee-tier anxiety) but not tea? So fine. To hell with my mental health. I decided to take theanine (or placebo) together with coffee on an empty stomach first thing in the day. And I decided to double the dose of theanine from 200 mg to 400 mg. Details Coffee. I used one of those pod machines which are incredibly uncool but presumably deliver a consistent amount of caffeine. Measurements. Each day I recorded my stress levels on a subjective 1-5 scale before I took the capsules. An hour later, I recorded my end stress levels, and my percentage prediction that what I took was actually theanine. Blinding. I have capsules that either contain 200 mg of theanine or 25 mcg of vitamin D. These are exactly the same size. I struggled for a while to see how to take two pills of the same type while being blind to the results. In the end, I put two pills of each type in identical looking cups and shuffled the cups. Then I shut my eyes, took a sip of coffee (to make sure I couldn’t taste any difference), swallowed the pills on one cup, and put the others into a numbered envelope. Here’s a picture of the envelopes, to prove I actually did this and/or invite sympathy for all the coffee I had to endure: After 37 days I ran out of capsules. Initial thoughts I’m going to try something new. As I write these words, I have not yet opened the envelopes, so I don’t know the results. I’m going to register some thoughts. My main thought is: I have no idea what the results will show. It really felt like on some days I got the normal spike of anxiety I expect from coffee and on other days it was almost completely gone. But in my previous experiment I often felt the same thing and was proven wrong. It wouldn’t surprise me if the results show a strong effect, or if it’s all completely random. I’ll also pre-register (sort of) the statistical analyses I intend to do: I’ll plot the data. I’ll repeat Luis’s Bayesian analysis, which looks at end stress levels only. I’ll repeat that again, but looking at the change in stress levels. I’ll repeat that again, but looking at my percentage prediction that what I actually took was theanine vs. placebo. I’ll compute regular-old confidence intervals and p-values for end stress, change in stress, and my percentage prediction that what I actually took was theanine vs. placebo. Intermission Please hold while I open all the envelopes and do the analyses. Here’s a painting. Plots Here are the raw stress levels. Each line line shows one trial, with the start marked with a small horizontal bar. Remember, this measures the effect of coffee and the supplement. So even though stress tends to go up, this would still show a benefit if it went up less with theanine. Here is the difference in stress levels. If Δ Stress is negative, that means stress went down. Here are the start vs. end stress levels, ignoring time. The dotted line shows equal stress levels, so anything below that line means stress went down. And finally, here are my percentage predictions of if what I had taken was actually theanine: So…. nothing jumps out so far. Analysis So I did the analysis in my pre-registered plan above. In the process, I realized I wanted to show some extra stuff. It’s all simple and I think unobjectionable. But if you’re the kind of paranoid person who only trusts pre-registered things, I love and respect you and I will mark those with “✔️”. End stress The first thing we’ll look at is the final stress levels, one hour after taking theanine or vitamin D. First up, regular-old frequentist statistics. Variable Mean 95% C.I. p theanine end stress 1.93 (1.80, 2.06) vitamin D end stress 2.01 (1.91, 2.10) ✔️ difference (T-D) -0.069 (-0.23, 0.083) 0.33 If the difference is less than zero, that would suggest theanine was better. It looks like there might be a small difference, but it’s nowhere near statistically significant. Next up, Bayes! In this analysis, there are latent variables for the mean and standard deviation of end stress (after one hour) with theanine and also for vitamin D. Following Luis’s analysis, these each have a Gaussian prior with a mean and standard deviation based on the overall mean in the data. Variable Mean 95% C.I. P[T better] end stress (T) 1.93 (1.81, 2.06) end stress (D) 2.00 (1.91, 2.10) difference (T-D) -0.069 (-0.23, 0.09) 80.5% ✔️ % diff (T-D)/D -3.38% (-11.1%, 4.71%) 80.5% The results are extremely similar to the frequentist analysis. This says there’s an 80% chance theanine is better. Δ Stress Next up, let’s look at the difference in stress levels defined as Δ = (end - start). Since this measures an increase in stress, we’d like it to be as small as possible. So again, if the difference is negative, that would suggest theanine is better. Here are the good-old frequentist statistics. Variable Mean 95% C.I. p theanine Δ stress 0.082 (-0.045, 0.209) vitamin D Δ stress 0.085 (-0.024, 0.194) ✔️ difference (T-D) 0.0026 (-0.158, 0.163) 0.334 And here’s the Bayesian analysis. It’s just like the first one except we have latent variables for the difference in stress levels (end-start). If the difference of that difference was less than zero, that would again suggest theanine was better. Variable Mean 95% C.I. P[T better] Δ stress (T) 0.0837 (-0.039, 0.20) Δ stress (D) 0.0845 (-0.024, 0.19) difference (T-D) -0.0008 (-0.16, 0.16) 50.5% ✔️ % diff (T-D)/D 22.0% (-625%, 755%) 55.9% In retrospect, this percentage prediction analysis is crazy, and I suggest you ignore it. The issue is that even though Δ stress is usually positive (coffee bad) it’s near zero and can be negative. Computing (T-D)/D when D can be negative is stupid and I think makes the whole calculation meaningless. I regret pre-registering this. The absolute difference is fine. It’s very close (almost suspiciously close) to zero. Percentage prediction Finally, let’s look at my percentage prediction that what I took was theanine. It really felt like I could detect a difference. But could I? Here we’d hope that I’d give a higher prediction that I’d taken theanine when I’d actually taken theanine. So a positive difference would suggest theanine is better, or at least different. Variable Mean 95% C.I. p % with theanine 52.8% (45.8%, 59.9%) % with vitamin D 49.3% (43.2%, 55.4%) ✔️ difference (T-D) 3.5% (-5.4%, 12.4%) 0.428 And here’s the corresponding Bayesian analysis. This is just like the first two, except with latent variables for my percentage prediction under theanine and vitamin D. Variable Mean 95% C.I. P[T better] % prediction (T) 52.7% (45.8%, 59.6%) % prediction (D) 49.3% (43.4%, 55.2%) difference (T-D) 3.3% (-5.7%, 12.4%) 77.1% ✔️ % diff (T-D)/D 7.2% (-10.8%, 27.6%) 77.1% Taking a percentage difference of a quantity that is itself a percentage difference is really weird, but fine. Discussion This is the most annoying possible outcome. A clear effect would have made me happy. Clear evidence of no effect would also have made me happy. Instead, some analyses say there might be a small effect, and others suggest nothing. Ugh. But I’ll say this: If there is any effect, it’s small. I know many people say theanine is life-changing, and I know why: It’s insanely easy to fool yourself. Even after running a previous 18-month trial and finding no effect, I still often felt like I could feel the effects in this experiment. I still thought I might open up all the envelopes and find that I had been under-confident in my guesses. Instead, I barely did better than chance. So I maintain my previous rule. If you claim that theanine has huge effects for you, blind experiment or GTFO.
Insiders worry that Hollywood is the next Detroit—but it's actually much worse than that