More from Damn Interesting
In the village of Bellewstown, about 15 miles north of Dublin, Ireland, they still talk about what Barney Curley did back in 1975. It all happened during a horse race on the Hill of Crockafotha. It was just an amateur jockey race on a lazy summer day in a sleepy, remote town; it wasn’t meant to be anything special. The last thing anyone expected was to witness the making of history. The race in question occurred on 26 June 1975. Barney Curley–our protagonist, if you could call him that–owned one of the horses running later that day. But at the racecourse, as preparations were being made, Curley was nowhere to be seen. And not because he wasn’t in attendance–it was because he was taking great pains to stay out of sight. If the trackside bookmakers caught wind that he was at Bellewstown that day, or if they discovered that he was the owner of one of the horses, they would be on full alert, and take precautions with the wagers and odds. Curley had earned a reputation in horse racing circles–he was known to engage in some gambling shenanigans from time to time. But the shenanigan he was planning that day was his most ambitious to date, hands-down. As the spectators placed their wagers and settled in around the edge of the track for a pleasant afternoon of laid back horse racing, Curley was concealed in the thicket of gorse shrubs in the center section of the oval-shaped track. This particular infield wasn’t ideal for human occupation, it was all dust and thorns. Nevertheless he stood in his trademark felt fedora, shrouded by tall shrubbery, far from the other spectators, a pair of binoculars pressed to his eyes. In the distance the loudspeaker announced, “They’re off!” Curley tugged his hat down tight over his bald head as if he could hide inside of it, and peered through his field glasses toward the rumble of horse hooves. In the next five minutes, if everything went according to plan, all of Barney Curley’s considerable money troubles would be over. If the plan went sideways–if his animal was not up to the task, or there was one inopportune stumble–he would be utterly ruined. Continue reading ▶
In certain dialects of Chinese, Japanese, Korean, and Vietnamese, the word for ‘four’ sounds very similar to the word for ‘death’1. Consequently, the number 4 is considered by many people in East Asian nations to be unlucky. It is not unusual for buildings in that region to skip the number 4 when labeling floors, much in the same way 13th floors are omitted in some parts of the world2. In Hong Kong, at least one skyscraper avoids the proper numbering for floors 40-49. Four is the smallest positive non-prime number3. It is the only natural number where one can get the same result by multiplying its square roots (2×2), or adding them (2+2). Four happens to be the only number that has the same number of letters as its actual value4. The four color theorem tells us that four is an adequate number of colors for any two dimensional map–no two bordering regions would need to share a color. Four is the number of bonds that a carbon atom can make, which is why life can exist, a quality known as tetravalency. Fear of the number four is known as tetraphobia, and anyone suffering from it has almost certainly stopped reading by now, or at least uttered some four-letter words. It’s no secret that direct donations to Damn Interesting have been on a downward trend in recent years, so we are aiming to diversify. To that end, we’ve made something new, and it’s called Omiword. Continue reading ▶
Edmund Lawall must have felt cursed. He’d brought his family to New York in the late 1800s to carry on his father’s business as a pharmacist, but fate—or perhaps the city itself—seemed determined to drive him back out again. Lawall’s health had been in decline since their arrival, and his wife’s kidney disease had worsened, despite all of the tinctures and patent medicines available to his turn-of-the-century expertise. Not long after that, his business partner had been revealed as a crook, sending Lawall scrambling into bankruptcy court to convince the judge that his pharmacy had nothing to do with shady real estate dealings. Then, in the midst of the bankruptcy proceedings, an anonymous woman had staggered into Lawall’s drug store, collapsed on the floor, and died of unknown causes. Likely no one could have saved her, but it wasn’t exactly a ringing endorsement of the pharmaceutical services available at the corner of Eighth Street and Avenue C. None of that compared, however, to the morning of 27 June 1906, when a disheveled man in a medical coat burst through the narrow glass doors of the pharmacy, begging for protection. He was immediately followed by a young man with a revolver, and an angry crowd screaming in Yiddish. Lawall didn’t speak the language, but there was no mistaking the young man’s intent as he strode purposely forward and raised his gun to the doctor’s head. It was a grim, but recognizable tableau: the young man’s stance and grip were confident, clearly marking him as a budding gangster. The behavior of the crowd, on the other hand, made no sense at all. Innocent bystanders tended to run away from gang violence, yet the pushcart vendors and housewives surrounding the apparent holdup were not frightened, or even appealing for mercy. They were shouting, quite insistently, for the doctor’s execution. And everything seemed to indicate they were going to get what they wanted. In the weeks that followed, blame would be pointed in nearly every direction—because at that moment, unbeknownst to Lawall, similar scenes were playing out all over the neighborhood, with other doctors, teachers, reporters, and even utility workers being assaulted by hordes of people howling at them in Yiddish. By the time it was over, the incident would be measured as one of the largest riots ever in New York City, and the confrontation at Lawall’s Pharmacy would be mentioned only in passing, if at all. Another name, however, would be repeated over and over again: Adeline E. Simpson, the principal of Public School No. 110. Continue reading ▶
Iceland is known to the rest of the world as the land of Vikings and volcanos, an island caught between continents at the extremities of the map. Remote and comparatively inhospitable, it was settled only as long ago as the 9th century, and has seen little additional in-migration since. Even today, more than 90 percent of Iceland’s 390,000 residents can trace their ancestry back to the earliest permanent inhabitants, a Nordic-Celtic mix. The tradition of the Norse sagas lives on in the form of careful record-keeping about ancestry—and a national passion for genealogy. In other words, it is not the place to stumble upon old family mysteries. But growing up in the capital city of Reykjavík in the 1950s, neurologist Dr. Kári Stefánsson heard stories that left him curious. Stefánsson’s father had come from Djúpivogur, an eastern coastal town where everyone still spoke of a Black man who had moved there early in the 19th century. “Hans Jónatan”, they called him—a well-liked shopkeeper who had arrived on a ship, married a spirited woman from a local farm, and became a revered member of the community. The local census did record a man by the name of Hans Jónatan, born in the Caribbean, who was working at the general store in Djúpivogur in the 19th century—but that was all. No images of the man had survived, and his time in Iceland was well before any other humans with African ancestry are known to have visited the island. If tiny, remote Djúpivogur did have a Black man arrive in the 19th century, the circumstances must have been unusual indeed. It was an intriguing puzzle—and solid grounds for a scientific investigation. Given the amount of homogeneity in the baseline Icelandic population, the genetic signature of one relative newcomer with distinct ancestry might still stand out across a large sample of his descendants. Geneticists thus joined locals and history scholars, and they pieced together a story that bridged three continents. Continue reading ▶
It’s been a busy summer, and the large shortfall in donations last month has been demoralizing, so we’re taking a week off to rest and recuperate. The curated links section will be (mostly) silent, and behind the scenes we’ll be taking a brief break from our usual researching, writing, editing, illustrating, narrating, sound designing, coding, et cetera. We plan to return to normalcy on the 11th of September. (The word “normalcy” was not considered an acceptable alternative to “normality” until 14 May 1920, when then-presidential-candidate Warren G. Harding misused the mathematical term in a campaign speech, stating that America needed, “not nostrums, but normalcy.” He then integrated this error into his campaign slogan, “Return to Normalcy.” Also, the G in Warren G. Harding stood for “Gamaliel.”) While we are away, on 06 September 2023, Damn Interesting will be turning 18 years old. To celebrate, here are the first emojis to ever appear in the body of a Damn Interesting post: 🎂🎉🎁 If you become bored while we are away, you might try a little mobile game we’ve been working on called Wordwhile. It can be played alone, or with a friend. If you enjoy games like Scrabble and Wordle, you may find this one ENJOYABLE (75 points). Launch Wordwhile → And, as always, there are lots of ways to explore our back-catalog. View this post ▶
More in science
This question will not go away. I am getting asked this questions at conferences now. The media also seems to think this is a compelling question, and they are fueled in part by the tech industry itself, some of whom indulge this question. I will admit the answer has become more complex and nuanced than a simple “no”, but it is still mostly no. Certainly the rise of neural networks, deep learning, transformer technology, and specifically large language models have ushered in the era of – are we really sure current AI is not conscious? Our intuition tells us that they may be – LLMs are getting scary in how sophisticated they are and in their ability to simulate complex human conversations. Five years ago I was with the crowd who argued that LLMs are basically really good auto-complete apps, but this pithy sentiment no longer covers it. Even if they do not have a whisper of conscious awareness, they employ context-dependent logic. They are “intelligent” in their own way. And they are rapidly getting more impressive. So I get why people would be asking the question. Everyone I know who works with AI apps has their example of when they were blown away by an interaction with an LLM. For me, I was trouble-shooting a web-based app I was using, and ChatGPT was very effective at helping with the trouble-shooting and producing a differential problem list. At one point it asked for a screen capture so it could have more information, and it gave me a cogent analysis. But here’s the part I found surprising – it “noticed” another window open in the background and inferred from this that I was also using this other app in the process, and used this to generate further potential sources of the problem. As impressive as this is, I still think they are not conscious. I think the illusion of consciousness is generated by the fact that LLMs are simulating language, and we associate language with consciousness. No one thinks Midjourney, an art making program, is conscious, even though this is based on the same fundamental technology. Further, LLMs are still brittle in their own way, although the brittleness is being rapidly programmed out of them. What this means is that you can break them, or easily confuse them, in order to reveal that they are simulating language rather than truly thinking. This brittleness is revealed in several ways – sensitivity to exact prompt wording, accepting false premises in the prompt, and failure to recognize constraints. If changing the language but not the real meaning of a prompt gives different answers, then the LLM is responding statistically to the language, not genuinely reasoning about the information. Each iteration of LLMs is getting better at plugging these brittleness holes, but they are still there. Still, this doesn’t mean that there is no contextual reasoning happening. I think the best current summary is that LLMs are a combination of statistical language prediction (the auto-complete thing) and contextual reasoning. This doesn’t mean that they are conscious, however. What I believe it means is that humans find it surprising how much reasoning a machine can do without consciousness. Perhaps our own reasoning is more procedural than true deep thinking than we perceive or feel comfortable truly grappling with. We are also algorithmic machines, with different strengths and weaknesses than LLMs. But we are also conscious. So what is the difference? The difficulty in answering this question is that neuroscientists are still not certain what causes consciousness in the first place. This does not mean it’s a complete mystery or we know nothing – it means it is a complex multifactorial, and perhaps emergent, process that is not easily understood or explained. But we do have a lot of knowledge about it. There is no reason, in my opinion, to think that the different is biology vs silicon. I do believe that silicon can become conscious. Rather, it’s the process that matters, and we know some things about the process. Human consciousness requires that the brain be constantly self-activated. Turn off this activation (the brainstem activating system) and you will be in a coma – not conscious. We also know that the brain is constantly active and communicating with itself, in an endless loop of one network in the brain talking to other networks which talk to other networks and back to the original network, in a constant stream. It is this constant stream that is our consciousness. We also know there is a threshold, at least for wakeful consciousness. You need at least 45% of your cortex to be functional in order to generate wakeful consciousness. Are people who are not wakeful still conscious to some degree? Probably, but it’s difficult to understand what this means. If you are not making memories, for example, then we cannot interrogate what that consciousness was like. If people can still respond to their environment, does that imply consciousness, or could that simply be an unconscious reaction? For straightforward LLMs – prompt-response, I do not think they can be conscious, at least not human-level conscious. They are doing none of the things that are necessary for vertebrate consciousness. Things get a bit trickier for agentic AIs, that can iterate their own behavior, but still this is more like a self-iterative prompt than a true stream of consciousness. But admittedly, frontier agentic AI is starting to blur the lines a bit. But here’s the thing – even if I cannot say with absolute certainty that some of these frontier models have still not crossed over some fuzzy line into a type of consciousness, I can say that this consciousness must be fairly minimal compared to human-level consciousness. I can also say that such minimal consciousness is not what is speaking to you. It is not reasoning and generating the output of LLMs. We know what’s doing that, and it does not require consciousness or result from any process that can be reasonably inferred to be conscious (again, it may just be a prompt-response). Therefore, arguing that we cannot rule out some consciousness emerging from the processing of massive data centers does not mean you are speaking to that consciousness through your LLM. I may turn out to be wrong, but I don’t think we will back into AI consciousness through some unanticipated emergent property. I think we will have to design systems to do the kinds of things necessary for consciousness. It may be a deliberate attempt to make a conscious AI, or many of those elements may have some separate utility. Either way we will be able to look at the system and see that it is functioning in a way that can plausibly result in consciousness, and that consciousness will be proportional to the power and functionality of the system. LLMs are not it. They are not even on a path to become conscious. They are doing contextual reasoning, and it is getting steadily more impressive, but they are doing it without consciousness. The post Could AI Be Conscious? first appeared on NeuroLogica Blog.
Researchers have found that snowstorms are delivering vast numbers of tiny plastic particles to remote reaches of California's Sierra Nevada mountains. Snowmelt is a major source of fresh water for the state. Read more on E360 →
Economics often starts with an assumption that people are rational maximizers of their own self-interest; but it doesn't stop there. […]
I’m an Australian father of four, living in the US. Something of a corner case. Nevertheless, getting my kids Australian citizenship by descent, and then Australian passports so we can fly home legally, has kicked off a carnival of errors with a very dark side. Australia is generally thought of as a developed western liberal country with relatively high state capacity. And I have generally found that at least state government services, now administered through centralized offices, have become more efficient over time. Passport applications for children living overseas, however, remain a time machine with a difficult security overhang. Australian …