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Whenever I talk about working in real-time, making decisions as you go, figuring things out now rather than before, I get a question like this... "If you don't have a backlog, or deep sets of prioritized, ranked items, how do you decide what to do next?" My answer: The same way you do when your made your list. You make decisions. We just make decisions about what to work on next as we go, looking forward, rather than making decisions as we went, looking backwards. Why work from what /seemed/ like a good idea before? Instead, work from appears to be a good idea now. You have more information now — why not use it? It's always baffled me how people who pluck work from long lists of past decisions think you can't make those same kinds of decisions now instead. It's all yay/nay decisions. Same process. Before wasn't magical. Before was just now, then. Why not look at now, now? Now is a far more accurate version of next. The backlog way is based on what you thought then. The non-backlog way is based on what you think now. I'll take now. One's stale, one's fresh. We'll take fresh. Then is further, now is closer. There's nothing special about having made decisions already. They aren't better, they aren't more accurate, they aren't more substantial just because they've been made. What they are, however, is older and often outdated. If you've got to believe in something, I'd suggest putting more faith in now. -Jason
Business isn’t something you learn in books. Or posts. Or threads. You can’t read your way to the right hire. You can't consume enough content to produce a product. You have to do. You learn business by doing business. Hiring by hiring. Products by building them. We know this is true in music. Never pick up a guitar? Go read 100 books on guitar. You'll suck just as much. You have to play. You can only learn guitar by playing. Business is music. Some things can be taught. Some are just knowledge. Business isn't that kind of thing. Products aren't those kinds of things. Like music. Like sports. Like anything physical. You have to do the thing to get better at the thing. In that way, business is more physical than mental. It's not a formula you can learn. It's not a series of lessons you can internalize. It's not a list you can complete. Business is muscle memory. It's built by doing. Go do. -Jason
One of the great lessons of nature: Randomness is the most beautiful thing. Every forest, every field, every place untouched by humans is full of randomness. Nothing lines up, a million different shapes, sprouting seeds burst where the winds — or birds — randomly drop them. Stones strewn by water, ice, gravity, and wind, all acting on their own in their own ways. Things that just stop and stay. Until they move somehow, another day. The way the light falls, the dapples that hit the dirt. The shades of shades of shades of green and gold that work no matter what's behind it. The way the wind carries whatever's light enough for liftoff. The negative space between the leaves. Colliding clouds. The random wave that catches light from the predictable sun. The water's surface like a shuffled blanket. Collect the undergrowth in your hand. Lift it up. Drop it on the ground. It's always beautiful. However it comes together, or however it stays apart, you never look at it and say that doesn't line up or those colors don't work or there's simply too much stuff or I don't know where to look. Nature's out of line. Just right. You too. -Jason
In the end, judgment comes first. And that means hiring is a gut decision. As much science as people want to try to pour into the hiring process, art always floats to the top. This is especially true when hiring at the executive level. The people who make the final calls — the ones who are judged on outcome, not effort — are ultimately hired based on experience and judgement. Two traits that are qualities, not quantities. They are tasked with setting direction, evaluating situations, and making decisions with limited information. All day long they are making judgment calls. That's what you hire them to do, and that's how you decide who to hire. Presented with a few finalists, you decide who you *think* will do a better job when they have to *think* about what to do in uncertain situations. This is where their experience and judgment come in. It's the only thing they have that separates them from someone else. Embrace the situation. You don't know, they don't know, everyone's guessing, some guess better than others. You can't measure how well someone's going to guess next time, you can only make assumptions based on other assumptions. Certainty is a mirage. In the art of people, everything is subjective. In the end, it's not about qualifications — it's about who you trust to make the right call when it matters most. Ultimately, the only thing that was objective was your decision. The reasons were not. -Jason
I'm republishing this for a friend who doesn't have a reliable place to publish this online. It's a letter she wrote and sent to a number of newspapers. Her family was a victim of the recent Franklin wildfire, and unlike other recent fires, the Franklin fire wasn't included in the Governor's emergency declaration for disaster relief. This has devastating downstream implications on those who lost everything, and their neighbors and neighborhoods. Here is her piece, in its entirety. Governor Newsom can change this with the stroke of a pen, and it's my understanding he's been presented with an opportunity to sign this into being, but has, as of now, refused. If you know anyone who can reach Governor Newsom and help make this happen for all the folks who suffered dearly in Franklin, please do. Thank you. —— Malibu's Forgotten Fire: Why the Franklin Fire Must Be Included in Disaster Relief On December 9th, my home burned in the Franklin Fire in Malibu. Just 19 days after it was contained, the Palisades Fire ignited and raged all the way to my neighborhood. The fire was only stopped because there was simply nothing left to burn. Despite this undeniable connection, Franklin Fire victims are not included in disaster relief efforts, leaving me and my neighbors in a dire situation with no support. During this time, I was unable to return to my property. Homes on my street still lack drinkable water and essential utilities. The communication poles burned down, making recovery even more challenging. The already difficult job of dealing with the Franklin Fire has been compounded by the Palisades Fire, yet we have been left out of relief efforts. The housing market is overrun, and price gouging has made anything available unaffordable. I don’t qualify for help because my fire “doesn’t count.” I don’t qualify for free toxin testing or free debris removal from the Army Corps of Engineers. I don’t qualify for streamlined tax relief or financial benefits. I am still waiting for any assistance to cover my family’s initial six-week stay in a hotel with our pets. What was initially expected to be a few months of hardship has now turned into an estimated two-year ordeal—because I am at the bottom of every priority list. The most devastating realization is that I am woefully underinsured for this disaster. If I were allowed to combine my insurance policy, I would have the funds needed to rebuild. But because the Franklin Fire is not included in the broader emergency declaration, I am prohibited from accessing this option. If the Franklin Fire were bundled with the officially recognized wildfires, I could qualify for the necessary coverage to repair my home. It is heartbreaking to see that just 19 days after the Franklin Fire, victims of the Palisades Fire have been granted sweeping benefits and streamlined permits. They will be able to rebuild their homes “like for like” plus an additional ten percent without the need for permits—not even for homes or septic systems. Meanwhile, I don’t qualify for this exemption. I don’t qualify for state-backed relief efforts. My neighborhood, which was undeniably part of this disaster, is being ignored. Instead, I am left with nothing but bureaucratic red tape and empty reassurances. Why is my neighborhood excluded from these crucial relief efforts? The answer is simple: Governor Gavin Newsom has not signed off on it. Other fires across Los Angeles—including those caused by arsonists—have been bundled into the broader wildfire relief programs. Fires that never even touched the Palisades are included. So why not the Franklin Fire? Malibu is not just a playground for the rich and famous. It is home to multi-generational families like mine. I was born and raised in Malibu. My grandparents’ home on Pacific Coast Highway, which they purchased in the 1940s, was lost in the Palisades Fire. My parents’ home—my childhood home—was lost in the Palisades Fire. My own home, where I lived with my husband and child, burned in the Franklin Fire just 19 days before. The Franklin Fire was still smoldering when the Palisades Fire ignited. We were still in a hotel, not yet having found a place to rent. We are part of this disaster, yet we have been erased from its response. It is time for the Franklin Fire to be included in the state of emergency declaration. We need access to relief, insurance flexibility, and the same streamlined rebuilding process granted to our neighbors. We are victims of this disaster, and we deserve to be recognized as such.
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One small but meaningful shift to make hard conversations a little bit easier
I apologise that the site has been a bit slow since it suddenly turned into a travel blog. My plan was to roll out my poor man’s CDN before we left, but I ran out of time. It’s definitely not just a nginx GeoIP lookup that refers image requests to a different cloud instance running in Toronto depending on where you’re coming from. I’m trying to use the computer less on this trip—if you can believe it—but I’ll see what I can do to improve this a bit. By Ruben Schade in Sydney, 2025-04-24.
Theanine is an amino acid that occurs naturally in tea. Many people take it as a supplement for stress or anxiety. It’s mechanistically plausible, but the scientific literature hasn’t been able to find much of a benefit. So I ran a 16-month blinded self-experiment in the hopes of showing it worked. It did not work. At the end of the post, I put out a challenge: If you think theanine, prove it. Run a blinded self-experiment. After all, if it works, then what are you afraid of? Well, it turns out that Luis Costigan had already run a self-experiment. Here was his protocol: Each morning, take 200 mg theanine or placebo (blinded) along with a small iced coffee. Wait 90 minutes. Record anxiety on a subjective scale of 0-10. He repeated this for 20 days. His mean anxiety after theanine was 4.2 and after placebo it was 5.0. A simple Bayesian analysis said there was an 82.6% chance theanine reduced anxiety. The p-value was 0.31, but this is a Bayesian blog—this is what you'd expect with a sample size of 20. A sample size of 20 just doesn’t have enough statistical power to have a good chance of finding a statistically significant result. If you assume the mean under placebo is 5.0, the mean under theanine is 4.2, and the standard deviation is 2.0, then you’d only have a 22.6% chance of getting a result with p<0.05. I think this experiment was good, both the experiment and the analysis. It doesn’t prove theanine works, but it was enough to make me wonder: Maybe theanine does work, but I somehow failed to bring out the effect? What would give theanine the best possible chance of working? Theanine is widely reported to help with anxiety from caffeine. While I didn’t explicitly take caffeine as part of my previous experiment, I drink tea almost every day, so I figured that if theanine helps, it should have shown up. But most people (and Luis) take theanine with coffee, not tea. I find that coffee makes me much more nervous than tea. For this reason, I sort of hate coffee and rarely drink it. Maybe the tiny amounts of natural theanine in tea masked the effects of the supplements? Or maybe you need to take theanine and caffeine at the same time? Or maybe for some strange reason theanine works for coffee (or coffee-tier anxiety) but not tea? So fine. To hell with my mental health. I decided to take theanine (or placebo) together with coffee on an empty stomach first thing in the day. And I decided to double the dose of theanine from 200 mg to 400 mg. Details Coffee. I used one of those pod machines which are incredibly uncool but presumably deliver a consistent amount of caffeine. Measurements. Each day I recorded my stress levels on a subjective 1-5 scale before I took the capsules. An hour later, I recorded my end stress levels, and my percentage prediction that what I took was actually theanine. Blinding. I have capsules that either contain 200 mg of theanine or 25 mcg of vitamin D. These are exactly the same size. I struggled for a while to see how to take two pills of the same type while being blind to the results. In the end, I put two pills of each type in identical looking cups and shuffled the cups. Then I shut my eyes, took a sip of coffee (to make sure I couldn’t taste any difference), swallowed the pills on one cup, and put the others into a numbered envelope. Here’s a picture of the envelopes, to prove I actually did this and/or invite sympathy for all the coffee I had to endure: After 37 days I ran out of capsules. Initial thoughts I’m going to try something new. As I write these words, I have not yet opened the envelopes, so I don’t know the results. I’m going to register some thoughts. My main thought is: I have no idea what the results will show. It really felt like on some days I got the normal spike of anxiety I expect from coffee and on other days it was almost completely gone. But in my previous experiment I often felt the same thing and was proven wrong. It wouldn’t surprise me if the results show a strong effect, or if it’s all completely random. I’ll also pre-register (sort of) the statistical analyses I intend to do: I’ll plot the data. I’ll repeat Luis’s Bayesian analysis, which looks at end stress levels only. I’ll repeat that again, but looking at the change in stress levels. I’ll repeat that again, but looking at my percentage prediction that what I actually took was theanine vs. placebo. I’ll compute regular-old confidence intervals and p-values for end stress, change in stress, and my percentage prediction that what I actually took was theanine vs. placebo. Intermission Please hold while I open all the envelopes and do the analyses. Here’s a painting. Plots Here are the raw stress levels. Each line line shows one trial, with the start marked with a small horizontal bar. Remember, this measures the effect of coffee and the supplement. So even though stress tends to go up, this would still show a benefit if it went up less with theanine. Here is the difference in stress levels. If Δ Stress is negative, that means stress went down. Here are the start vs. end stress levels, ignoring time. The dotted line shows equal stress levels, so anything below that line means stress went down. And finally, here are my percentage predictions of if what I had taken was actually theanine: So…. nothing jumps out so far. Analysis So I did the analysis in my pre-registered plan above. In the process, I realized I wanted to show some extra stuff. It’s all simple and I think unobjectionable. But if you’re the kind of paranoid person who only trusts pre-registered things, I love and respect you and I will mark those with “✔️”. End stress The first thing we’ll look at is the final stress levels, one hour after taking theanine or vitamin D. First up, regular-old frequentist statistics. Variable Mean 95% C.I. p theanine end stress 1.93 (1.80, 2.06) vitamin D end stress 2.01 (1.91, 2.10) ✔️ difference (T-D) -0.069 (-0.23, 0.083) 0.33 If the difference is less than zero, that would suggest theanine was better. It looks like there might be a small difference, but it’s nowhere near statistically significant. Next up, Bayes! In this analysis, there are latent variables for the mean and standard deviation of end stress (after one hour) with theanine and also for vitamin D. Following Luis’s analysis, these each have a Gaussian prior with a mean and standard deviation based on the overall mean in the data. Variable Mean 95% C.I. P[T better] end stress (T) 1.93 (1.81, 2.06) end stress (D) 2.00 (1.91, 2.10) difference (T-D) -0.069 (-0.23, 0.09) 80.5% ✔️ % diff (T-D)/D -3.38% (-11.1%, 4.71%) 80.5% The results are extremely similar to the frequentist analysis. This says there’s an 80% chance theanine is better. Δ Stress Next up, let’s look at the difference in stress levels defined as Δ = (end - start). Since this measures an increase in stress, we’d like it to be as small as possible. So again, if the difference is negative, that would suggest theanine is better. Here are the good-old frequentist statistics. Variable Mean 95% C.I. p theanine Δ stress 0.082 (-0.045, 0.209) vitamin D Δ stress 0.085 (-0.024, 0.194) ✔️ difference (T-D) 0.0026 (-0.158, 0.163) 0.334 And here’s the Bayesian analysis. It’s just like the first one except we have latent variables for the difference in stress levels (end-start). If the difference of that difference was less than zero, that would again suggest theanine was better. Variable Mean 95% C.I. P[T better] Δ stress (T) 0.0837 (-0.039, 0.20) Δ stress (D) 0.0845 (-0.024, 0.19) difference (T-D) -0.0008 (-0.16, 0.16) 50.5% ✔️ % diff (T-D)/D 22.0% (-625%, 755%) 55.9% In retrospect, this percentage prediction analysis is crazy, and I suggest you ignore it. The issue is that even though Δ stress is usually positive (coffee bad) it’s near zero and can be negative. Computing (T-D)/D when D can be negative is stupid and I think makes the whole calculation meaningless. I regret pre-registering this. The absolute difference is fine. It’s very close (almost suspiciously close) to zero. Percentage prediction Finally, let’s look at my percentage prediction that what I took was theanine. It really felt like I could detect a difference. But could I? Here we’d hope that I’d give a higher prediction that I’d taken theanine when I’d actually taken theanine. So a positive difference would suggest theanine is better, or at least different. Variable Mean 95% C.I. p % with theanine 52.8% (45.8%, 59.9%) % with vitamin D 49.3% (43.2%, 55.4%) ✔️ difference (T-D) 3.5% (-5.4%, 12.4%) 0.428 And here’s the corresponding Bayesian analysis. This is just like the first two, except with latent variables for my percentage prediction under theanine and vitamin D. Variable Mean 95% C.I. P[T better] % prediction (T) 52.7% (45.8%, 59.6%) % prediction (D) 49.3% (43.4%, 55.2%) difference (T-D) 3.3% (-5.7%, 12.4%) 77.1% ✔️ % diff (T-D)/D 7.2% (-10.8%, 27.6%) 77.1% Taking a percentage difference of a quantity that is itself a percentage difference is really weird, but fine. Discussion This is the most annoying possible outcome. A clear effect would have made me happy. Clear evidence of no effect would also have made me happy. Instead, some analyses say there might be a small effect, and others suggest nothing. Ugh. But I’ll say this: If there is any effect, it’s small. I know many people say theanine is life-changing, and I know why: It’s insanely easy to fool yourself. Even after running a previous 18-month trial and finding no effect, I still often felt like I could feel the effects in this experiment. I still thought I might open up all the envelopes and find that I had been under-confident in my guesses. Instead, I barely did better than chance. So I maintain my previous rule. If you claim that theanine has huge effects for you, blind experiment or GTFO.
Insiders worry that Hollywood is the next Detroit—but it's actually much worse than that
