Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. For deaths, I'm currently using 4 weeks ago for "now", since the most recent three weeks will be revised significantly. Note: "Effective May 1, 2024, hospitals are no longer required to report COVID-19 hospital admissions, hospital capacity, or hospital occupancy data."  So, I'm no longer tracking hospitalizations. COVID Metrics  NowWeek AgoGoal Deaths per Week378461≤3501 1my goals to stop weekly posts. 🚩 Increasing number weekly for Deaths. ✅ Goal met. Click on graph for larger image. This graph shows the weekly (columns) number of deaths reported since Jan 2023. Although weekly deaths met the original goal to stop posting in June 2023 (low of 314 deaths), I've continued to post since deaths are above the goal again - and I'll continue to post until weekly deaths are once again below the goal. Weekly deaths are now decreasing following the winter pickup and are nearing the lows of last June. And here is a graph I'm following concerning COVID in wastewater as of May 1st: This appears to be a leading indicator for COVID hospitalizations and deaths.  This has been moving sideways recently. Nationally COVID in wastewater is "Low".

After the election in November 2016, I pointed out that the economy was solid, that there were significant economic tailwinds and that it was unlikely that Mr. Trump would do everything he said during the campaign. See: The Future is still Bright! and The Cupboard is Full.  I was pretty optimistic on the economic outlook! more concerned: "So far Mr. Trump has had a limited negative impact on the economy. ... Fortunately the cupboard was full when Trump took office, and luckily there hasn't been a significant crisis" (emphasis added).   Unfortunately, the COVID crisis struck in early 2020 and Trump performed poorly. Once again, the economy was in good shape at the start of Mr. Trump's 2nd term in 2025.  Just after the election, Fed Chair Powell said, "The recent performance of our economy has been remarkably good, by far the best of any major economy in the world."  And in December, Powell said the US economy is the "envy of other large economies around the world". In his 2nd term, Mr. Trump is being more aggressive with his economic plans.  At the same time, he is not benefiting from the tailwinds I described in 2016. Click on graph for larger image. The black arrows point to the start of Mr. Trump's terms in 2017 and 2025.  In early 2017 I was projecting further increases in housing starts.  Now I think housing starts will be down year-over-year and move more sideways over the next few years. Also, in 2016, demographics were improving, and the largest cohort in US history was moving into their peak earning years.  Now, demographics are more neutral, and possibly even negative if legal immigration is limited. The key tailwinds at the start of Mr. Trump's 1st term and now more neutral and even negative. And there are additional self-induced headwinds.  The tariffs are clearly negative for economic growth.  Goldman Sachs economists recently noted: Reflecting both the tariff news and a decline in our Q1 GDP tracking estimate to just 0.2%, we have also lowered our 2025 GDP growth forecast by 0.5pp to 1.0% on a Q4/Q4 basis (and by 0.4pp to 1.5% on an annual average basis). And - because of the rhetoric of the Trump administration (suggesting Canada should be the 51st state and the VP saying Denmark isn't a good ally (completely false and offensive) - there will be less international tourism to the US, and there is a growing international boycott of US goods. Of course, I don't expect any progress over the next four years on key long-term economic issues like climate change and income / wealth inequality (that will likely get worse). The US economy is resistant to policy mistakes, and I'm still not currently on recession watch.  However, I'm not sanguine.

At the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter this week: Click on graph for larger image. New Home Sales Decrease to 657,000 Annual Rate in January Case-Shiller: National House Price Index Up 3.9% year-over-year in December Inflation Adjusted House Prices 1.0% Below 2022 Peak Freddie Mac House Price Index Increased in January; Up 3.9% Year-over-year

Earlier I posted some questions on my blog for next year: Ten Economic Questions for 2025. Some of these questions concern real estate (inventory, house prices, housing starts, new home sales), and I posted thoughts on those in the newsletter (others like GDP and employment will be on this blog). Ten Economic Questions for 2024. Unemployment Rate: The unemployment rate was at 4.2% in November, up from 3.7% in November 2023.   Currently the FOMC is projecting the unemployment rate will increase to the 4.2% to 4.5% range in Q4 2025.  What will the unemployment rate be in December 2025? Seven years ago - back when most analysts said the unemployment rate couldn't go much lower - I noted that current demographics shared some similarities to the '60s, and that the unemployment rate bottomed at 3.4% in the '60s - and that we might see the unemployment rate that low or lower in this cycle. That happened.   Note the period in the late '60s when the unemployment rate was mostly below 4% for four consecutive years.  That period ended in late 1969 with a recession. Click on graph for larger image. The unemployment rate is from the household survey (CPS), and the rate increased in November to 4.2%, up from 3.7% in November 2023.   It appears that the participation rate will decline in 2025 based on demographics and that population growth will slow due to less net migration.  That suggests the possibility that the labor force might not grow in 2025 and might even contract!  So even if job growth slows sharply in 2025 (next question), the unemployment rate will fall. Here are the Ten Economic Questions for 2025 and a few predictions: Question #4 for 2025: What will the participation rate be in December 2025? Question #5 for 2025: What will the YoY core inflation rate be in December 2025? Question #6 for 2025: What will the Fed Funds rate be in December 2025? Question #7 for 2025: How much will wages increase in 2025? Question #8 for 2025: How much will Residential investment change in 2025? How about housing starts and new home sales in 2025? Question #9 for 2025: What will happen with house prices in 2025? Question #10 for 2025: Will inventory increase further in 2025?